Transportation options in a carbon-constrained world: Hybrids,plug-in hybrids,biofuels, fuel cell electric vehicles,and battery electric vehicles

Multiple alternative vehicle and fuel options are being proposed to alleviate the threats of climate change, urban air pollution, and oil dependence caused by the transportation sector. We report here on the results from an extensive computer model developed over the last decade to simulate and compare the societal benefits of deploying various alternative transportation options including hybrid electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids fueled by gasoline, diesel fuel, natural gas, and ethanol, and all-electric vehicles powered by either batteries or fuel cells. These simulations compare the societal benefits over a 100-year time horizon of each vehicle/fuel combination in terms of reduced local air pollution, greenhouse gas pollution, and oil consumption compared to gasoline cars.     

“How green are electric vehicles?”

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are often labeled “green”, implying that they will significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. But actual GHG reductions will depend on two factors: the number of electric vehicles that can be sold to Americans that are fond of driving large vehicles long distances, and the GHGs emitted by the electrical power plants that charge the EV batteries. This article evaluates the maximum potential of EVs to cut GHG emissions and oil consumption in the U.S. and compares them with the GHG and oil reduction potential of hydrogen-powered fuel cell electric vehicles. Even if all US light duty vehicles (LDVs) (cars and trucks) were replaced by a combination of battery EVs for small vehicles and plug-in hybrids for all other LDVs, then GHGs could at most be reduced by 25% and oil consumption could be reduced by less than 67%. But if all LDVs in the U.S. were replaced by fuel cell electric vehicles powered by hydrogen made from natural gas, then GHGs would be immediately reduced by 44% and oil consumption by nearly 100%.     

Influence of driving patterns on life cycle cost and emissions of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicle powertrains

We compare the potential of hybrid, extended-range plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles to reduce lifetime cost and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions under various scenarios and simulated driving conditions. We find that driving conditions affect economic and environmental benefits of electrified vehicles substantially: Under the urban NYC driving cycle, hybrid and plug-in vehicles can cut life cycle emissions by 60% and reduce costs up to 20% relative to conventional vehicles (CVs). In contrast, under highway test conditions (HWFET) electrified vehicles offer marginal emissions reductions at higher costs. NYC conditions with frequent stops triple life cycle emissions and increase costs of conventional vehicles by 30%, while aggressive driving (US06) reduces the all-electric range of plug-in vehicles by up to 45% compared to milder test cycles (like HWFET). Vehicle window stickers, fuel economy standards, and life cycle studies using average lab-test vehicle efficiency estimates are therefore incomplete: (1) driver heterogeneity matters, and efforts to encourage adoption of hybrid and plug-in vehicles will have greater impact if targeted to urban drivers vs. highway drivers; and (2) electrified vehicles perform better on some drive cycles than others, so non-representative tests can bias consumer perception and regulation of alternative technologies. We discuss policy implications.     

The car and fuel of the future

This paper is based on a review of the technical literature on alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) and discussions with experts in vehicle technology and energy analysis. It is derived from analysis provided to the bipartisan National Commission on Energy Policy.The urgent need to reverse the business-as-usual growth path in global warming pollution in the next two decades to avoid serious if not catastrophic climate change necessitates action to make our vehicles far less polluting.In the near-term, by far the most cost-effective strategy for reducing emissions and fuel use is efficiency. The car of the near future is the hybrid gasoline–electric vehicle, because it can reduce gasoline consumption and greenhouse gas emissions 30 to 50% with no change in vehicle class and hence no loss of jobs or compromise on safety or performance. It will likely become the dominant vehicle platform by the year 2020.Ultimately, we will need to replace gasoline with a zero-carbon fuel. All AFV pathways require technology advances and strong government action to succeed. Hydrogen is the most challenging of all alternative fuels, particularly because of the enormous effort needed to change our existing gasoline infrastructure.The most promising AFV pathway is a hybrid that can be connected to the electric grid. These so-called plug-in hybrids or e-hybrids will likely travel three to four times as far on a kilowatt-hour of renewable electricity as fuel cell vehicles. Ideally these advanced hybrids would also be a flexible fuel vehicle capable of running on a blend of biofuels and gasoline. Such a car could travel 500 miles on 1 gal of gasoline (and 5 gal of cellulosic ethanol) and have under one-tenth the greenhouse gas emissions of current hybrids.     

Cost-effectiveness of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle battery capacity and charging infrastructure investment for reducing US gasoline consumption

Federal electric vehicle (EV) policies in the United States currently include vehicle purchase subsidies linked to EV battery capacity and subsidies for installing charging stations. We assess the cost-effectiveness of increased battery capacity vs. nondomestic charging infrastructure installation for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as alternate methods to reduce gasoline consumption for cars, trucks, and SUVs in the US. We find across a wide range of scenarios that the least-cost solution is for more drivers to switch to low-capacity plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (short electric range with gasoline backup for long trips) or gasoline-powered hybrid electric vehicles. If more gasoline savings are needed per vehicle, nondomestic charging infrastructure installation is substantially more expensive than increased battery capacity per gallon saved, and both approaches have higher costs than US oil premium estimates. Cost effectiveness of all subsidies are lower under a binding fuel economy standard. Comparison of results to the structure of current federal subsidies shows that policy is not aligned with fuel savings potential, and we discuss issues and alternatives.     

Cost-effective energy carriers for transport – The role of the energy supply system in a carbon-constrained world

The aim of this study is to examine how the options for producing electricity, fuels, and heat in a carbon-constrained world affect the cost-effectiveness of a range of fuels and propulsion technologies in the transportation sector. GET 7.0, a global energy system model with five end-use sectors, is used for the analysis. We find that an energy system dominated either by solar or by nuclear tends to make biofuels in plug-in hybrids cost-effective. If coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS) dominates the energy system, hydrogen cars, rather than plug-in hybrids tend to become cost-effective. Performing a Monte Carlo simulation, we then show that the general features of our results hold for a wide range of assumptions for the costs of vehicle propulsion technologies (e.g., batteries and fuel cells). However, sufficiently large changes in say the battery costs may overturn the impact of changes in the energy supply system, so that plug-in hybrid vehicles become cost-effective even if coal with CCS dominate the energy supply. We conclude that analyses of future energy carriers and propulsion technologies need to consider developments in the energy supply system.     

Societal lifetime cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

This paper employs societal lifetime cost for evaluating hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) from a societal welfare perspective as compared to conventional gasoline vehicles. We employ a learning-curve model for fuel-cell system cost estimates over time. The delivered hydrogen fuel cost is estimated using the UC Davis SSCHISM hydrogen supply pathway model, and most vehicle costs are estimated using the Advanced Vehicle Cost and Energy-Use Model (AVCEM). To estimate external costs, we use AVCEM and the Lifecycle Emissions Model (LEM). We examine hydrogen transition costs for a range of market penetration rates, externality evaluations, technology assumptions, and oil prices. Our results show that although the cost difference between FCVs and gasoline vehicles is initially very large, FCVs eventually become lifetime cost competitive with gasoline vehicles as their production volume increases, even without accounting for externalities. High valuation of externalities and high oil price could reduce the buy-down cost (the cumulative investment needed to bring hydrogen FCVs to lifetime cost parity with gasoline vehicles) by $10 billion relative to our reference case.     

The role of hydrogen cars in the economy of California

Hydrogen has been proposed as an alternative transportation fuel that could reduce energy consumption and eliminate tailpipe emissions when used in fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). To investigate the potential effects of hydrogen vehicles on California’s economy over the next two decades, we employed the modified Costs for Advanced Vehicles and Energy (CAVE) model and a California-specific computable general equilibrium model. Results indicate that, even in the aggressive scenario, hydrogen cars can only account for a minor fraction of the on-road fleet through 2030. Although new sales could drop sharply, conventional gasoline cars and carryover pre-2010 vehicles are still expected to dominate the on-road vehicle stock and consume the majority of transportation energy through 2030. Transportation energy consumption could decline dramatically, mainly because of the fuel economy advantage of FCVs over conventional cars. Both moderate and aggressive hydrogen scenarios are estimated to have a slightly negative influence on California’s economy. However, the negative economic impacts could be lessened as the market for hydrogen and FCVs builds up. Based on the economic optimization model, both hydrogen scenarios would have a negative economic impact on California’s oil refining sector and, as expected, a positive impact on the other directly related sectors that contribute to either hydrogen production or FCV manufacturing.     

Air quality and environmental impacts of alternative vehicle technologies in Ontario,Canada

This study is focused on the province-wide emissions in Ontario, Canada and urban air pollution in the city of Toronto. The life-cycle (LC) impacts of utilizing alternative fuels for transportation purposes is considered in terms of six major stressors for climate change, acidification and urban air quality. The vehicles considered are plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and fuel cell plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (FCPHEVs). Modeling of the penetration rates for these types of vehicles has been completed based on the maximum base-load capacity of Ontario's electricity grid to accommodate the generation of hydrogen and charging of vehicles using grid electricity. Results show that the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from adoption of PHEVs or FCVs will exceed 3% of the current emissions from the transportation sector in Ontario while FCPHEVs may achieve almost twice this reduction. All vehicles exhibit similar impacts on the precursors for photochemical smog although the province-wide effects differ significantly.     

Affordable hydrogen supply pathways for fuel cell vehicles

Fuel cell vehicles can be powered directly by hydrogen stored on the vehicle, or indirectly by extracting hydrogen from onboard liquid fuels such as methanol or gasoline. The direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is preferred, since it would be less complex, have better fuel economy, lower greenhouse gas emissions, greater oil import reductions and would lead to a sustainable transportation system once renewable energy was used to produce hydrogen. The two oft-cited concerns with direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are onboard hydrogen storage and the lack of hydrogen supply options. Directed Technologies, Inc., working with the Ford Motor Company under a Department of Energy cost shared contract to develop direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, has addressed both perceived roadblocks to direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. We describe realistic, cost effective options for both onboard hydrogen storage and for economically viable hydrogen infrastructure development.     

Advanced vehicles: Costs, energy use, and macroeconomic impacts

Advanced vehicles and alternative fuels could play an important role in reducing oil use and changing the economy structure. We developed the Costs for Advanced Vehicles and Energy (CAVE) model to investigate a vehicle portfolio scenario in California during 2010-2030. Then we employed a computable general equilibrium model to estimate macroeconomic impacts of the advanced vehicle scenario on the economy of California. Results indicate that, due to slow fleet turnover, conventional vehicles are expected to continue to dominate the on-road fleet and gasoline is the major transportation fuel over the next two decades. However, alternative fuels could play an increasingly important role in gasoline displacement. Advanced vehicle costs are expected to decrease dramatically with production volume and technological progress; e.g., incremental costs for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen could break even with gasoline savings in 2028. Overall, the vehicle portfolio scenario is estimated to have a slightly negative influence on California's economy, because advanced vehicles are very costly and, therefore, the resulting gasoline savings generally cannot offset the high incremental expenditure on vehicles and alternative fuels. Sensitivity analysis shows that an increase in gasoline price or a drop in alternative fuel prices could offset a portion of the negative impact.     

Evaluation of energy requirements for all-electric range of plug-in hybrid electric two-wheeler

Recently plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are emerging as one of the promising alternative to improve the sustainability of transportation energy and air quality especially in urban areas. The all-electric range in PHEV design plays a significant role in sizing of battery pack and cost. This paper presents the evaluation of battery energy and power requirements for a plug-in hybrid electric two-wheeler for different all-electric ranges. An analytical vehicle model and MATLAB simulation analysis has been discussed. The MATLAB simulation results estimate the impact of driving cycle and all-electric range on energy capacity, additional mass and initial cost of lead-acid, nickel-metal hydride and lithium-ion batteries. This paper also focuses on influence of cycle life on annual cost of battery pack and recommended suitable battery pack for implementing in plug-in hybrid electric two-wheelers.     

Dynamic simulation and lifecycle assessment of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles considering various hydrogen production methods

In this research study, a real model of a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is simulated using Simcenter Amesim software. The software used for vehicle simulation enabled dynamic simulation, resulting in more precise simulation. Furthermore, considering that fuel cell degradation is one of the significant challenges confronting fuel cell vehicle manufacturers, we examined the impact of fuel cell degradation on the performance of hydrogen vehicles. According to the findings, a hydrogen vehicle with a degraded fuel cell consumes 14.3% more fuel than a fresh fuel cell hydrogen vehicle. A comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) is also performed for the designed hydrogen vehicle. The results of the hydrogen vehicle life cycle assessment are compared with a gasoline vehicle to fully understand the effect of hydrogen vehicles in reducing air emissions. The methods considered for hydrogen production included natural gas reforming, electrolysis, and thermochemical water splitting method. Furthermore, because the source of electricity used for electrolysis has a significant impact on the life cycle emission of a hydrogen vehicle, three different power sources were considered in this assessment. Finally, while a hydrogen vehicle with a degraded fuel cell emits lower carbon dioxide (CO₂) than a gasoline vehicle, the emitted CO₂ from this vehicle using hydrogen from electrolysis is approximately 25% higher than that of a new hydrogen vehicle.     

Efficiencies of hydrogen storage systems onboard fuel cell vehicles

Energy efficiency, vehicle weight, driving range, and fuel economy are compared among fuel cell vehicles (FCV) with different types of fuel storage and battery-powered electric vehicles. Three options for onboard fuel storage are examined and compared in order to evaluate the most energy efficient option of storing fuel in fuel cell vehicles: compressed hydrogen gas storage, metal hydride storage, and onboard reformer of methanol. Solar energy is considered the primary source for fair comparison of efficiencies for true zero emission vehicles. Component efficiencies are from the literature. The battery powered electric vehicle has the highest efficiency of conversion from solar energy for a driving range of 300 miles. Among the fuel cell vehicles, the most efficient is the vehicle with onboard compressed hydrogen storage. The compressed gas FCV is also the leader in four other categories: vehicle weight for a given range, driving range for a given weight, efficiency starting with fossil fuels, and miles per gallon equivalent (about equal to a hybrid electric) on urban and highway driving cycles.     

Re-envisioning the role of hydrogen in a sustainable energy economy

This paper addresses the fundamental question of where hydrogen might fit into a global sustainable energy strategy for the 21st century that confronts the three-pronged challenge of irreversible climate change, uncertain oil supply, and rising pollution. We re-envision the role of hydrogen at national and international strategic levels, relying entirely on renewable energy and energy efficiency. It is suggested the time for an exclusive ‘hydrogen economy’ has passed, since electricity and batteries would be used extensively as well. Yet hydrogen would still play a crucial role: in road and rail vehicles requiring a range comparable to today’s petrol and diesel vehicles; in coastal and international shipping; in air transport; and for longer-term seasonal storage on electricity grids relying mainly on renewables. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are proposed where medium and long distance trips are required, with plug-in battery electric vehicles reserved for just short trips. A hierarchy of spatially-distributed hydrogen production, storage and distribution centers relying on local renewable energy sources and feedstocks would be created to limit the required hydrogen pipeline network to the main metropolitan areas and regions by complementary use of electricity as a major energy vector. Bulk hydrogen storage would provide the strategic energy reserve to guarantee national and global energy security in a world relying increasingly on renewable energy. It is recommended that this vision next be applied to specific countries by conducting detailed energy-economic-environmental modeling to quantify its net benefits.     

Potential energy and greenhouse gas emission effects of hydrogen production from coke oven gas in U.S. steel mills

For this study, we examined the energy and emission effects of hydrogen production from coke oven gas (COG) on a well-to-wheels basis and compared these effects with those of other hydrogen production options, as well as with those of conventional gasoline and diesel options. We then estimated the magnitude of hydrogen production from COG in the United States and the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) that could potentially be fueled with the hydrogen produced from COG. Our analysis shows that this production pathway can achieve energy and greenhouse gas emission reduction benefits. This pathway is especially worth considering because first, the sources of COG are concentrated in the upper Midwest and in the Northeast United States, which would facilitate relatively cost-effective collection, transportation, and distribution of the produced hydrogen to refueling stations in these regions. Second, the amount of hydrogen that could be produced may fuel about 1.7 million cars, thus providing a vital near-term hydrogen production option for FCV applications.     

Market penetration scenarios for fuel cell vehicles

Market penetration models are presented, illustrating that direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles could eventually provide industry with substantial return on investment without government subsidy, while at the same time significantly reducing environmental degradation and oil imports. This market penetration model estimates the likely number of fuel cell vehicles that might be sold in the United States over the next three decades, based on the projected costs of these vehicles and the cost of hydrogen compared to other clean vehicles that might compete for the California zero emission vehicle market. Initial results are shown comparing the market penetration, societal benefit/cost ratios and return on investment estimates for direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles compared to fuel cell vehicles with onboard fuel processors including methanol steam reformers and gasoline partial oxidation systems.     

Fuel economy of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

On the basis of on-road energy consumption, fuel economy (FE) of hydrogen fuel cell light-duty vehicles is projected to be 2.5–2.7 times the fuel economy of the conventional gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) on the same platforms. Even with a less efficient but higher power density 0.6 V per cell than the base case 0.7 V per cell at the rated power point, the hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are projected to offer essentially the same fuel economy multiplier. The key to obtaining high fuel economy as measured on standardized urban and highway drive schedules lies in maintaining high efficiency of the fuel cell (FC) system at low loads. To achieve this, besides a high performance fuel cell stack, low parasitic losses in the air management system (i.e., turndown and part load efficiencies of the compressor–expander module) are critical.     

Comparative life cycle assessment of hydrogen-fuelled passenger cars

In order to achieve gradual but timely decarbonisation of the transport sector, it is essential to evaluate which types of vehicles provide a suitable environmental performance while allowing the use of hydrogen as a fuel. This work compares the environmental life-cycle performance of three different passenger cars fuelled by hydrogen: a fuel cell electric vehicle, an internal combustion engine car, and a hybrid electric vehicle. Besides, two vehicles that use hydrogen in a mixture with natural gas or gasoline were considered. In all cases, hydrogen produced by wind power electrolysis was assumed. The resultant life-cycle profiles were benchmarked against those of a compressed natural gas car and a hybrid electric vehicle fed with natural gas. Vehicle infrastructure was identified as the main source of environmental burdens. Nevertheless, the three pure hydrogen vehicles were all found to be excellent decarbonisation solutions, whereas vehicles that use hydrogen mixed with natural gas or gasoline represent good opportunities to encourage the use of hydrogen in the short term while reducing emissions compared to ordinary vehicles.     

Methodology for evaluating existing infrastructure and facilitating the diffusion of PEVs

Recent U.S. state and federal legislation have been implemented with the intent of promoting the diffusion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Meanwhile, the federal government has passed new regulation aimed at increasing fuel efficiency standards of gasoline powered vehicles in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we examine the existing barriers that impact PEV diffusion. We argue that increased fuel efficiency standards coupled with declining gasoline prices conflicts with the implemented PEV incentives. Using a geospatial method, we demonstrate how policymakers can create regionally weighted markets based on consumer surveys to facilitate the development of a national policy for nascent products like the PEVs.