Large mainframes into the next century

The historical and present and future role of mainframe computing is examined against the background of changing user requirements and applications. A classification of computing systems is presented which is used to predict the role of the mainframe system within the processing needs of organizations in the future.The key technology drivers and barriers to the introduction of improved information processing are identified and those aspects which will have a direct bearing on future mainframe systems highlighted and examined.     

Moore's law meets the life sciences

The ability to perform DNA analysis, clinical diagnostics, and biomolecule detection and manipulation using miniaturized devices has many practical applications. This issue examines such devices, their functionality and applications, and the design and test technology challenges involved in developing them. This issue also features a roundtable on design and CAD challenges for leading-edge multimedia designs, and a eulogy by Aart de Geus paying tribute to the late A. Richard Newton.     

Intel research expands Moore's law

Intel's research agenda includes 90-nanometer fabrication processes and work in extreme ultraviolet lithography that will help extend Moore's law. It also embraces disruptive technologies exemplified in devices such as micro-electromechanical-systems microradiators, smart antennas, and radiofrequency components for analog switches, resonators, and filters; ad hoc sensor networks with wireless communications; and photonic devices such as optical switches and cheap tunable lasers. To implement these advances, Intel has created a network of university-based labs that group the corporation's scientists with academic researchers to form multidisciplinary teams. These lablets leverage industry and academic synergy to nurture off-the-roadmap ideas and technologies and provide a proving ground for testing their viability.     

Beyond Moore's law: Internet growth trends

To keep pace with the Internet's growth, the maximum speed of core routers and switches must increase at the same rate. In a study conducted in 1969, the author analyzed 39 scientific computers released or planned for release from 1958 to 1972 to determine optimal computer replacement strategy (http://www.ziplink.net/lroberts/Forecast69.htm). This study looked at the trend of CPU throughput per dollar and predicted that computer performance would double every 18.6 months. Updating the study using data for 1999 PCs shows that the trend over 41 years is a doubling of computer performance every 21 months, a remarkably small correction. A similar study tracking the costs from the first ARPA packet switches in 1969 to the most modern routers and ATM switches in 1999 confirms that packet switches have followed the same trend as computers, with performance per dollar doubling every 21 months. Although the computer performance rate predicted in the updated 1969 study is similar to Moore's law, the trends are not identical. It would appear that both the performance per dollar for computers and the serial interface speed for communications are increasing at 94 percent of the yearly growth rate of semiconductor performance. We can use this information about performance and cost trends to predict the cost of computers and communications and to understand the Internet traffic growth. Keeping up with these trends will be a major engineering challenge     

Leakage current: Moore's law meets static power

Off-state leakage is static power, current that leaks through transistors even when they are turned off. The other source of power dissipation in today's microprocessors, dynamic power, arises from the repeated capacitance charge and discharge on the output of the hundreds of millions of gates in today's chips. Until recently, only dynamic power has been a significant source of power consumption, and Moore's law helped control it. However, power consumption has now become a primary microprocessor design constraint; one that researchers in both industry and academia will struggle to overcome in the next few years. Microprocessor design has traditionally focused on dynamic power consumption as a limiting factor in system integration. As feature sizes shrink below 0.1 micron, static power is posing new low-power design challenges.     

Software engineering programs for the next century

The field of software engineering and its subdisciplines have grown tremendously in the past six years. IEEE Computer Society conferences and working committees have helped this process by greatly increasing information dissemination and the opportunity to publish quality work in many topic areas. These activities are coordinated by the Technical Council on Software Engineering, an international voluntary organization consisting of Computer Society members and others interested in promoting the field. The author looks at the work of the council which provides a forum for the exchange of ideas among interested practitioners, researchers, developers, maintainers, and students throughout the world     

The innovation curve [Moore's law in semiconductor industry]

The world of the computer has been marked by rapid change since its very inception. In the hardware domain, we think of change as being driven by Moore's law, the observation of Gordon Moore concerning the improvements in integrated circuits. Viewed from a distance, Moore's law has seemed to be a natural phenomenon, something akin to gravity. Every 18 months, processors are faster, memories are larger, and prices are lower. However, as we probe the operation of the semiconductor industry, we quickly find that there is little natural about Moore's law. The industry has been able to achieve the targets of this law only through careful, dedicated planning. Over the past few years, these plans have taken the form of a large, collaborative document known as a "roadmap". The roadmap has been revised every three to four years with interim reports appearing between the major revisions.     

Taking handheld devices to the next level

Wireless technologies such as Bluetooth and IEEE 802.11 (Wi-Fi), handheld devices are communicating more frequently with conventional computers in offices, meeting rooms, classrooms, and homes. The smart homes of the future will have ubiquitous embedded computation, and an increasing number of appliances can already communicate wirelessly. The authors launched the Pebbles project to determine whether a handheld device, such as a personal digital assistant (PDA) or cell phone, could serve as a simpler, more effective remote control. Office-centered applications include using the PDA instead of a laser pointer, using a PDA to remotely control a PowerPoint presentation, and using a PDA with the nondominant hand to scroll windows on a PC. In the home, we are exploring how to use the PDA as a customizable, intelligent personal universal controller (PUC) for appliances, creating high-quality control panels on the handheld using a high-level specification of the appliance's capabilities. We are also interested in how PDAs can assist in providing both appliance and computer access for the disabled, including the development of new text entry methods for the motor-impaired user.     

Taking HL7 to the next level.

For HL7 to reach the next level of standards capability, the organization must continue their model-centric development process so systems using the standards can achieve interoperability--sematic as well functional. The HL7 Message Development Framemwork specifies thi process detail and anchors future HL7 standards with a common reference information model. That model will evolve through a process of discussion, amendment, voting to continuously harmonize proposals from committees that have specific spheres of knowledge.     

Representation as a fluent: an AI challenge for the next half century

The authors argued that AI systems must be able to manipulate their own internal representations automatically to deal with an infinitely complex and ever-changing world and to scale up to rich, complex applications. Such manipulation must go beyond changing beliefs and learning new concepts in terms of old concepts; it must be able to change ontology's underlying syntax and semantics. Initial progress has been made, but further progress is urgently needed owing to the demands of autonomous multiagent systems. Understanding and implementing this ability must be a major focus of AI for the next 50 years.     

Advancing IT into the 21st century

The progress of IT in the US is the direct result of federal investments. Advances in information technology will provide the basis for much of the world's economic growth as we head into the next century (2000). During the past five years (1994-9), production in computers, semiconductors, and communications equipment quadrupled at a time when total industrial production grew by 28 percent. In the coming decades, the opportunities for innovation in IT are larger than they ever have been-and more important. If the past is any guide, the most important advances will come from unexpected directions, facilitated by advanced technical capabilities that result from fundamental research. Thus, federal investments in basic, high risk research for IT will be even more essential to ensuring the intellectual and technical underpinnings for these as yet unforeseeable developments     

Robots in space into the 21st century

Describes the technological developments which are establishing the foundation for an exciting era of in situ exploration missions to planets, comets and asteroids with advanced robotic systems. Also outlines important concurrent terrestrial applications and spinoffs of the space robotics technology. These include high-precision robotic manipulators for microsurgical operations and dexterous arm control systems.     

Science, technology and society in East Asia: Frameworks for the challenges of the next century

Science and technology development is increasingly driven by the requirements of a globalising world economy. Information and communication technologies both support this globalisation process, and provide opportunities to participate in it. However, the process of development is not uniform. Within nation states and within regions there is considerable inequity in the scale and pace of development. Successful science and technology policies require an understanding of location within a global production network and of local capabilities. This paper explores the prospects for such policies in the context of North East Asia.     

摩尔定律能走多远

2009全球IPv6暨移动互联网峰会4月15日京召开,英特尔中国政府事务电信和标准政策董事总经理黄节博士做了主题为"摩尔定律能走多远-英特尔的创新之旅"的演讲,全文如下:     

Integration for the next generation: embedding force control into industrial robots

In this paper, the interaction control schemes suitable for implementation on industrial robot units are presented. In particular, the focus is on impedance control and parallel control, which are conceived to manage the interaction with a more or less compliant environment without requiring an accurate model thereof. All the considered schemes are based on an inner motion control loop, which can be the usual independent joint control of PID type or an advanced model-based motion control law with superior tracking performance. The inner motion control loop is in charge of tracking the reference trajectory computed by the outer interaction control loop. Special emphasis is given to controlling 6-degrees-of-freedom (DOF) interaction tasks involving the end-effector position and orientation when a contact force and moment are applied.     

Taking Newspapers from Hot Lead into the Electronic Age

The authors discuss how they helped the Merganthaler Linotype Company adopt a computerized typesetting system.