An empirical Stock-Flow Consistent regional model of Campania

We develop an innovative Stock-Flow Consistent macroeconometric regional model with five sectors, exploiting economic and financial statistics for Campania, covering the period 1995–2018, and propose a methodology to close the financial account of the private sector when financial data are lacking. The model is then used to perform medium term Economic Policy Scenario Analysis. We find that a debt-funded fiscal expansion has permanent positive effects on growth, with an impact multiplier above one and a medium-run multiplier of 0.71. In the case of a balanced-budget rule the same increase in government spending has still positive effects on growth – with a medium-run multiplier of 0.6 – but adverse ones on the private corporate sector.     

Reasonable concession period for build-operate-transfer road projects in the Philippines

This paper provides a methodology to determine the reasonable concession period that would be advantageous both to the government and the private sector with the impact of risks taken into consideration in the financial evaluation using Monte Carlo simulation and bargaining game theory. The simulation produced a range of concession period for the private sector and government to negotiate. Bargaining game theory was employed in an attempt to find a specific concession period. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology, two Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) road projects in the Philippines were used as case studies. The resulting concession period was found to be longer than the actual concession period granted to the private sector indicating the impact of risks in the cash flow. With the proposed methodology, the government could further enhance its policies in processing BOT projects with the end in view of increasing private sector participation in infrastructure development.     

An econometric analysis of private sector participation in China’s urban water supply

This paper explores the impact of private sector participation on industrial performance of urban water supply by using panel data for 35 major cities in China over the period 1998 to 2008. We find that the introduction of private sector participation is significantly correlated with improvement in integrated production capacity and water coverage rate, but not correlated with the investment in fixed assets. Private sector participation has a positive impact on the integrated production capacity in the developed eastern cities and contributes to narrowing the gap of water coverage rate between the less developed central and western cities and the more developed eastern cities. We also find that the participation of foreign companies, but not domestic private companies, significantly improves water industry performance. The research sheds some light on the importance of private participation in urban water markets. However, the performance of domestic private firms in urban water supply still needs be improved.     

Housing Investment Trusts: A New Structure of Rental Housing Provision?

Recent governments in Britain have sought to attract financial institutions into private rental housing in order to increase the scale, professionalism and reputation of the sector and thereby to 'modernise' private landlordism. In 1996, in order to provide an attractive vehicle for the financial institutions to invest in the sector, the government introduced legislation permitting the establishment of housing investment trusts. These residential property companies have a reduced tax liability compared with normal property companies. However, no housing investment trusts have so far been established and none seem likely to be set up. This paper reports on qualitative interviews with financial institutions to examine why housing investment trusts have proved to be a policy failure. It is argued that the rules governing such trusts did not reflect the normal operations of a property company and that the existing structure of housing provision in the private rented sector was itself an obstacle to the modernisation of private landlordism.     

Modeling the resiliency of energy‐efficient retrofits in low‐income multifamily housing

Residential energy efficiency and ventilation retrofits (eg, building weatherization, local exhaust ventilation, HVAC filtration) can influence indoor air quality (IAQ) and occupant health, but these measures’ impact varies by occupant activity. In this study, we used the multizone airflow and IAQ analysis program CONTAM to simulate the impacts of energy retrofits on indoor concentrations of PM_2.5 and NO₂ in a low‐income multifamily housing complex in Boston, Massachusetts (USA). We evaluated the differential impact of residential activities, such as low‐ and high‐emission cooking, cigarette smoking, and window opening, on IAQ across two seasons. We found that a comprehensive package of energy and ventilation retrofits was resilient to a range of occupant activities, while less holistic approaches without ventilation improvements led to increases in indoor PM_2.5 or NO₂ for some populations. In general, homes with simulated concentration increases included those with heavy cooking and no local exhaust ventilation, and smoking homes without HVAC filtration. Our analytical framework can be used to identify energy‐efficient home interventions with indoor retrofit resiliency (ie, those that provide IAQ benefits regardless of occupant activity), as well as less resilient retrofits that can be coupled with behavioral interventions (eg, smoking cessation) to provide cost‐effective, widespread benefits.     

Private sector participation in infrastructure projects: a methodology to analyse viability of BOT

Many developing countries are now attempting to finance new infrastructure projects through private sector participation. This paper outlines a methodology based on financial and risk analyses that a government or a government utility can use to analyse the viability of private sector participation in new infrastructure projects. The water supply projects in Sri Lanka are used for the case study to outline the methodology. Financial analyses of a bulk water supply project and a water distribution project are carried out to estimate subsidy percentages that are required to make the projects viable, using a model developed for the investment analysis of all types of infrastructure project. This analysis looks at four pricing options for the bulk supply project, and sixteen procurement options for the distribution project, from the view point of the utility, for three cases of non-revenue water (35% as base case, 50% and 25% as extreme cases). The risk analysis takes into account the risk and uncertainty in non-revenue water, cost and demand estimates, rate of debt and forecasts of escalation. These analyses show that the best option for the utility is to obtain both bulk supply and distribution projects through private sector participation using BOT arrangements.     

Exploring the economic impact of construction pollution by disaggregating the construction sector of the input–output table

It has been argued that much environmental pollution is attributed to the construction sector. Other than the study of how such pollutants affect other parties, emphasis can be placed on estimating its economic impact on the construction sector itself. By knowing this, the sector may think of protecting itself by reducing pollutants. The study employs the disaggregated method in input–output (I–O) analyses to partition the original sector into a construction sector and a construction pollution sector and to employ sensitivity analysis to simulate the economic impacts of different levels of construction pollution. The real I–O tables of Japan are used for demonstration purposes. Results indicate that when the construction sector produces more pollutants, its outputs to other sectors would reduce and the inputs from other sectors would increase. This suggests that the construction sector becomes less economic efficient when more pollutants are generated. As a result, the economic impact of pollution has to be alleviated to improve the efficiency of the sector. This implication may also be applied to other sectors.     

Private Rental Housing in Hong Kong

This paper examines selected aspects of housing policy and its influence on private rental housing in Hong Kong. Its ambitions are modest, in part because so little research has been conducted on the sector, as a consequence of the small size of the sector as well as the concentration of socio-political, economic and policy analyses on the other major housing sectors, namely public renting and home ownership. It is argued that a fundamental function of private renting, to provide a functional substitute and counter-balance to distortions in the market for private home ownership, has been systematically undermined in Hong Kong. In spite of its historical importance in meeting Hong Kong people's housing needs, the sector's decline has been steep and it can now be fairly described as a marginalised tenure, despite incomplete structural adjustment post- Asian Financial Crisis. It is suggested that a fundamental reason for the decline of the private rental sector has been the impact of government policy, which undermined the private rental sector and thus an important element of the market mechanism in housing provision. The government's ideology of home ownership has also functioned to transfer lower middle-income families into the owner occupied sector. Although the Hong Kong government has not been as overtly hostile to this sector as governments have been elsewhere, it nevertheless also seems to envisage no real role for the private rental sector in a housing delivery system molded by policy preference for home ownership, rather than fostering viable economic competition by also facilitating an efficient private rental sector.     

Awareness development for an energy management program for social housing in Canada

Social housing organizations compete with other social causes for limited public and private sector funding. While the environmental impact is important, it must be recognized that for most social housing organizations the most appealing aspect of an energy management program is the reduction in operating costs through reduced energy consumption. In order to secure financial resources for an energy management program, organizations will need to identify and address stakeholder perspectives in the formulation of ‘marketing’ strategies. The ‘marketing’ of an energy management program would be aimed at illustrating the substantial financial savings that can be achieved by increasing energy efficiency in social housing units. The bonus of an energy management program is the contribution towards environmental conservation and initiatives such as the Kyoto Protocol, as increased efficiency in energy usage and the subsequent reduction in overall energy consumption in social housing units contributes to reducing Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions.     

考虑公平偏好的 PPP 项目股权结构博弈研究

针对 PPP 项目中公共部门和社会资本间的博弈问题,引入 Fehr-Schmidt 行为模型刻画了社会资本的公平偏好,构建了 Stackelberg 动态博弈模型;通过逆向归纳法求解,得到纳什均衡下公共部门的最优股权分配比例和社会资本对项目最优特许价格;以广州市某 PPP 项目为例采用敏感性分析研究了相关参数变化对均衡解的影响,并得到管理学启示。结果表明:股权比例越高社会资本越倾向于提高特许价格,同时社会资本的公平偏好越高,政府部门应提高社会资本的股权比例。本研究可为解决现实 PPP 项目股权分配比例提供理论依据和决策参考。     

The future of the private rental sector in sweden

The private rental sector in Sweden is competing on a less-regulated and less-subsidized housing market. The paper analyses the prospects of this sector. The private sector has the dual advantage of an older (more attractive and centrally located) stock and a slightly beter-off tenant profile than the municipal sector. Thus, the private sector will be less affected by the withdrawal of interest subsidies, as these were given to new stock. The rent-to-income ratio will surpass 30 per cent in all sectors of the housing market in the year 2002, according to a recent projection. The private sector suffers less from vacancies than the municipal sector. The economic situation is, however, characterized by high LTV ratios, due to a price and borrowing boom in the late 1980s. This has led to bankruptcies and a weak economic situation for many private landlords. The boom was followed by a bust in 1990–93. Both the upswing and the downturn can be explained by fundamentals such as changes in GDP, unemployment, housing subsidy and tax rules. In the present recession, the private rental sector will benefit from its large share of small dwellings, which will also be advantagenous in the longer run, in view of the demographic trend towards more small households. There is fierce competition between the private and the municipal housing sector. In the short run, the private sector will benefit from the removal of interest subsidies. The effects will be felt in the younger municipal sector. All in all, both short-run and long-run considerations point at a housing market in Sweden which will keep its dualistic character of free competition between the private and the municipal sector in the future. Bengt Turner is Professor of Economics and Chair of the Institute for Housing Research at Uppsala University. He is also chairman of the European Network for Housing Research and coordinates a working group on housing finance. His research area is housing policy, microeconomic analysis of the housing market, as well as housing finance. He has also analysed the housing situation in transitory (East European) countries. In Sweden he is actively involved in housing policy formation as an expert in Governmental commissions and as a member of a number of research boards. Tommy Berger is an economist at the Institute of Housing Research, Uppsala University. His main interest is in housing finance and taxation policy.     

Housing Inheritance and the Private Rental Sector in Australia

The impact of housing inheritance on housing provision has been overlooked in previous work, which has concentrated on quantifying housing wealth and ascertaining whether or not it results in or contributes to social stratification. However, Australian research shows that while housing inheritance may only have modest effects on the wealth of beneficiaries, most of whom are middle-aged home owners themselves, there are important implications for the Australian private rental sector. Many beneficiaries let their inherited dwellings while those dwellings that are sold are often attractive to investors because of their often low capital value and central city location. In contrast to most investors in private rental housing, beneficiaries who become landlords are not always motivated by financial gain. The results suggest that housing inheritance may offer an opportune new source of private rental housing, although like the sector itself, the supply of dwellings from this source is not directly amenable to government control.     

基于公平偏好的公共文化 PPP 项目政府补偿研究

鉴于公共文化 PPP 项目收益性弱、对私人部门吸引力不足的特点,将私人部门公平偏好引入公共文化 PPP 项目的政府补偿机制设计,构建了以政府为主导的两阶段公私 Stackelberg 博弈模型。 以柳州某文化广场 PPP 项目为例分析了私人部门公平偏好对其初始投资决策、最优投资决策及政府补偿的影响。结果表明:博弈的第一阶段中政府初步许诺的运营期补偿力度较小,私人部门公平偏好与其初始决策投资呈正比;第二阶段确定补偿力度时,政府承诺收入率与私人部门期望收入率之差超过其参照点时,若私人部门公平偏好越高,要求政府最优运营期补偿力度越大,项目最优投资规模亦越大。研究结果可为公共文化 PPP 项目的补偿设计提供理论依据。     

PPP 限价房项目中合作效率与政府激励效率博弈研究

以限价房项目为例,分析不同产权结构下私人部门自利性和公益性努力水平对PPP 项目合作效率和政府激励效率的影响。结果表明,合理的控制权配置能促进PPP 限价房项目的合作效率,增加公众的满意程度;有效的激励措施能抑制私人部门自利性投入,提高其公益性行为的努力水平,从根本上促进目前限价房在建筑质量、小区治安和环境等方面问题的解决,从而实现社会总效益最大化。为政府缓解财政压力而采用PPP 模式提供限价房的顺利实施提供了理论依据。     

The private sector and public space in Dutch city centres

Private sector involvement in the design and financing of urban redevelopment projects has been relatively rare in the Netherlands. The public sector has traditionally played a central role in spatial planning and development. Since the 1980s, however, local authorities have been sharing the responsibility for urban development with the private sector. This article explores the viability of claims drawn from the literature about the effects of private sector involvement in redeveloped public space. Confronting those claims with our empirical material, we expected to find that the participation of the private sector would increase the redevelopment budget but would also lead to restrictions on public access. These two expectations are evaluated in light of the experience in four redeveloped squares in four Dutch cities: Rotterdam, Dordrecht, Enschede and ’s-Hertogenbosch. We found that actors on the public and private sides have different interpretations of what constitutes a direct financial contribution. Those from the private sector believe they have made significant contributions, while those from the public sector see themselves as the sole funders. But they agree on the issue of free access: both public and private actors deny any negative effects of private sector involvement in this respect.     

Periodical Literature in Urban Studies and Planning

City Venture Corporation is the largest private sector entity in the area of public/private partnerships in the country. Because it operates in many different cities and its projects include both successes and failures, it can serve as a case study for helping to define critical issues about this form of economic development. This study finds that the fundamental issue in such partnerships is the confusion of public, private, and community roles, with the key problem being the role of the government. Such confusion can lead to a lack of accountability. In addition, the study raises questions about the applicability of corporate management models to community economic planning and development.     

我国房地产企业产融结合效果实证研究

随着国家对民营资本进入金融业的鼓励和金融业准入的放宽,诸多优秀房地产公司相继进入金融领域。为了研究我国房地产企业产融结合的效果,以2001~2013 年房地产企业入股金融机构事件为研究对象,运用特征指标分析和Wilcoxon秩和检验法进行实证检验,发现入股金融机构后的房地产企业偿债能力有所提升,企业的融资速度加快,但盈利能力却显著下降,企业的经营绩效没有得到很好的提升;房地产企业产融结合后,企业没有实现管理协同和财务协同。所以房企在实施产融结合时需要重视如何发挥金融资本和产业资本的协同作用。     

Theoretical analysis of post‐peak flexural behaviour of normal‐ and high‐strength concrete beams

A new method of analysing the post‐peak flexural behaviour of reinforced concrete beams has been developed and applied to normal‐ and high‐strength concrete beams. It was revealed that at the post‐peak stage the neutral axis depth keeps on increasing, and at a certain point the strain in the tension reinforcement starts to decrease, even though the curvature is increasing monotonically. Such strain reversal in the tension reinforcement occurs in all concrete beams and has significant effects on the post‐peak behaviour and flexural ductility of concrete beams. Therefore, the stress path dependence of the tension reinforcement needs to be taken into account in the analysis. By means of a parametric study, the variation of ultimate concrete strain with tension steel ratio and the effects of various structural parameters on flexural ductility have been studied. Based on the numerical results, design values of ultimate concrete strain that are independent of tension steel ratio have been recommended and a simple formula for predicting the flexural ductility of reinforced normal‐ and high‐strength concrete beams has been developed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strategies for industrial and technological development of Middle Eastern countries

Manufacturing sectors in Middle Eastern countries are facing many challenges when competing in local and world markets. These challenges include global and regional trade agreements, the creation of economic superpowers around the globe (North America, Europe, and East Asia) and higher standards to meet international quality requirements. Therefore, many countries in the region will have to rely on industrial and technological development in order ensure sustained economic development and face the above mentioned challenges. This paper discusses the important role of the Technology Triangle (partnership and cooperation between government, private sector, and education sector) in such a development. Issues that insure the effectiveness of the Technology Triangle are considered such as operational factors, financial responsibility, and implementation and monitoring. The paper also lists possible obstacles that can hinder industrial and technological development of Middle Eastern Countries. Finally, the paper will highlight the industrial and technological development of Lebanon after 15 years of civil strife. It reviews the impact of the reconstruction process on the development of a strong industry and Science and Technology institutions. Strategies are proposed for improvements.