The emergence of cooperation in the random asynchronous prisoner’s dilemma

The iterated prisoners dilemma (IPD) is a simple model for the study of the emergence of cooperative behavior in populations of selfish individuals. In this work, we challenge the assumption that players move in synchrony, and develop a general Markovian model that allows the study of a wide spectrum of scenarios. Simulations show that the relative timing of player moves, and the reward for mutual cooperation, influences the strategy that eventually dominates the final population. For a synchronous environment, reciprocal behavior appears to be the key to the evolution of cooperation, while in an asynchronous environment, guarded generosity may be a route to the evolution of cooperation.     

The effects of viscosity in choice and refusal IPD environments

An objective of multi-agent systems is to build robust intelligent systems capable of existing in complex environments. These systems are often characterised as being uncertain and open to change which make such systems far more difficult to design and understand. Some of this uncertainty and change occurs in open agent environments where agents can freely enter and exit the system. In this paper we will examine this form of population change in a game theoretic setting. These simulations involve studying population change through a number of alternative viscosity models. The simulations will examine two possible trust models. All our simulations will use a simple choice and refusal game environment within which agents may freely choose with which of their peers to interact.     

Learning to trust in the competence and commitment of agents

For agents to collaborate in open multi-agent systems, each agent must trust in the other agents’ ability to complete tasks and willingness to cooperate. Agents need to decide between cooperative and opportunistic behavior based on their assessment of another agents’ trustworthiness. In particular, an agent can have two beliefs about a potential partner that tend to indicate trustworthiness: that the partner is competent and that the partner expects to engage in future interactions. This paper explores an approach that models competence as an agent’s probability of successfully performing an action, and models belief in future interactions as a discount factor. We evaluate the underlying decision framework’s performance given accurate knowledge of the model’s parameters in an evolutionary game setting. We then introduce a game-theoretic framework in which an agent can learn a model of another agent online, using the Harsanyi transformation. The learning agents evaluate a set of competing hypotheses about another agent during the simulated play of an indefinitely repeated game. The Harsanyi strategy is shown to demonstrate robust and successful online play against a variety of static, classic, and learning strategies in a variable-payoff Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma setting.     

The Spiral of Change Model for Coping with Changing and Ongoing Requirements

This paper is a discussion on the problem of establishing information requirements in changing and ongoing business organisations. Attempts within existing software development paradigms to cope with business change are identified and discussed, and their problems concerning business change are highlighted. The alternative spiral of change model of tailorable information systems is proposed for thinking about establishing changing and ongoing information systems requirements. It is also proposed that information should be reconceptualised as tailorable. Such a reconceptualisation would allow us to explore ways of establishing information systems requirements that cope with business change. Deferred system’s design is proposed as a form of business software design and development that can cope with business change, as well as with the contextual and situational nature of tailorable information.     

Multi-driver agent-based traffic simulation systems for evaluating the effects of advanced driver assistance systems on road traffic accidents

A recent investigation revealed that there is a substantiated need for the development of a micro-simulation system designed for traffic safety assessment. This paper describes the development of a road traffic simulation system, which uses a ‘nanoscopic model’ of driver behaviour and an integrated analysis-evaluation system designed for traffic safety assessment. The primary focus is on estimating the effects of an advanced driver assistance system thereby reducing traffic accidents. The effectiveness and validity of the present system are demonstrated through comparison with measured traffic data. This paper also proposes algorithms embedded in a ‘driver-agent’, for recognising driver’s intentions regarding choosing steering-control modes, lateral control tasks, and the driving mood. This is because the driver assistance systems need to recognise the driver’s intention when choosing steering-control. The results of a simulation study, using the data drawn from actual driving, show that the systems would achieve a high recognition capability. As an example of how driving mood recognition applies to driver assistance systems, an advanced steering system and the adaptability to the driver’s mood, have also been presented.     

The Holy Alignment: Geodesic and Astronomical Fundamentals for Calculating the Adjustment of Medieval Naves

It is commonly believed that the longitudinal axes of churches extend exactly in an east-west direction. However, thorough investigations have shown that this is not always correct; rather, both southern and northern deviations of up to about 25° can occur. The angular deviation between the church axis and true east is called the Holy Alignment. This present study presents the possibility that the nave is oriented towards the direction of the sun-rising point on the name day of the patron saint of the church. If several saints share the patronage, the Holy Alignment equals the algebraic sum of the angular distances for each saint. The orientation of a nave can be analyzed by means of common mathematical relations used in geodesy, astronomy and gnomonics. In order to perform such an analysis, it is necessary to know the history of the patronage of the church; the Gauss-Krüger coordinates of the ground plan; and characteristic astronomical quantities at the time the church was built. A calculated example with the saints Andrew, James and Philip for the year 980 illustrates the analysis. An appendix deals with the influence of atmospheric refraction on the apparent altitude of the sun near the horizon.