An effective database formation for decision support systems

Managers' tasks have two aspects: to monitor (control) business activities and to plan the future based upon the monitored results. Thus a decision Support System (DSS) must have two kinds of databases appropriate for its needs.A management database, i.e., one for monitoring activities, is constructed mainly from the existing operational databases. A data cube should be employed for the logical data structure of the management database so that managers can share it and access it in multiple ways.Planning databases, i.e., those for planning activities, are constructed mostly from the management database. A table form should be employed for its logical data structure so that managers will find it easy to use.The management and planning databases should be connected through DSS's system architecture [1]. This makes the operational data (indicating business activities) directly and immediately available for management decision making.We have previously presented the DSS architecture. This paper discusses the management and planning databases from the viewpoint of it.     

Industrial cost modelling and multi-objective optimisation for decision support in production systems development

Recent developments in cost modelling, simulation-based multi-objective optimisation, and post-optimality analysis have enabled the integration of costing data and cost estimation into a new methodology for supporting economically sound decision-making in manufacturing enterprises. Within this methodology, the combination of production engineering and financial data with multi-objective optimisation and post-optimality analysis has been proven to provide the essential information to facilitate knowledge-driven decision-making in real-world production systems development. The focus of this paper is to present the incremental cost modelling technique specifically designed for the integration with discrete-event simulation models and multi-objective optimisation within this methodology. A complete example, using the simulation model and data modified from a previous real-world case study, is provided in this paper to illustrate how the methodology and cost modelling are applied for the optimal investment decision support.     

A simulation-based risk network model for decision support in project risk management

This paper presents a decision support system (DSS) for the modeling and management of project risks and risk interactions. This is a crucial activity in project management, as projects are facing a growing complexity with higher uncertainties and tighter constraints. Existing classical methods have limitations for modeling the complexity of project risks. For example, some phenomena like chain reactions and loops are not properly taken into account. This will influence the effectiveness of decisions for risk response planning and will lead to unexpected and undesired behavior in the project. Based on the concepts of DSS and the classical steps of project risk management, we develop an integrated DSS framework including the identification, assessment and analysis of the risk network. In the network, the nodes are the risks and the edges represent the cause and effect potential interactions between risks. The proposed simulation-based model makes it possible to re-evaluate risks and their priorities, to suggest and test mitigation actions, and then to support project manager in making decisions regarding risk response actions. An example of application is provided to illustrate the utility of the model.     

A decision support system for the planning of the workload on a grain terminal

Ships, loaded with agricultural products, are handled by GEM at three different terminals in the port of Rotterdam. Each terminal consists of several berths and has both floating equipment and shore equipment. This paper describes the terminal system, the planning process and a menu driven computer planning model of the system. The planning model is split up into a first phase, in which berths are allocated, and a second phase, in which unloading equipment is assigned. The user of the model has the opportunity to manipulate several penalties and assign preferences to berths.     

A decision support system for the technical sustainability assessment of water distribution systems

The purpose of this study is to develop a decision support system (DSS) for the technical sustainability assessment of water distribution systems (WDSs). The technical sustainability is assessed based on the sustainability index methodology using reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability as performance criteria. These performance criteria are visualized by the DSS combining several visualization techniques to improve the raw data readability and the effectiveness of the decision-making process. The technical sustainability of the existing WDS is assessed using the sustainability index methodology and two alternative scenarios are proposed to improve the sustainability. The “new pump” scenario is based on adding network components. The second scenario is based on using reclaimed water for non-potable water demand and fire flow. The results show that the DSS is effective to illustrate time-dependent variables in the WDS and that the sustainability index methodology is a credible approach to compare scenarios and to identify problematic locations.     

A decision support system for the selection of computer-integrated manufacturing technologies

The adoption of computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) offers manufacturing organizations many tangible and intangible benefits which enable them to produce products of high quality at low costs. However, the selection and evaluation of CIM is a complex process as it involves the consideration of many parameters to ensure that the selected technology meets the requirements of individual companies. This paper describes the development of a quantitative/qualitative decision support system for the evaluation of CIM which takes into consideration the objectives and operating characteristics of a company, thus ensuring that the selected technology matches the individual needs of that company. The methodology used in the decision support system is based on a combination of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and database technology. The AHP provides a means to consider both the tangible and the intangible benefits of CIM while databases are used to store the knowledge about the various benefits that CIM may offer. The system has been implemented in EXCEL, which fully automates the evaluation process. A case study is also presented to illustrate the capability of the proposed decision support system.     

An architecture for the deployment of mobile decision support systems

The widespread use of mobile computing devices offers the opportunity of supplying decision support systems, targeted at specific situations and operated at the point of decision. Unfortunately, the computing environment within which such systems are deployed is radically different from the environments in which decision procedures are most easily designed. We summarise experience in reconciling these differences, using a general architecture but working in a specific domain (forest management). This required us to reconcile the constraints of the mobile computing device (limited resources, small touch-screen, support for procedural programming languages only) with the ability to rapidly select and configure different decision procedures for deployment in differing management conditions. We managed to reconcile these conflicting demands by taking advantage of the restricted forms of inference needed in the domain, making it possible to combine declarative and procedural aspects of the problem in a reliable way.     

A decision support system for strategic planning in large-scale marketing channels: An example in the tile industry

This paper presents a decision support system for strategic planning in marketing channels. A dynamic model of the marketing channel is employed which comprises manufacturer and retailer levels. Decision making is achieved through a game theoretical inference mechanism in which each player (manufacturer/retailer) optimises for a long-term profit maximisation objective. Both historical data and managerial expertise are used for the parameterisation of the system's knowledge base. The decision support system provides a forecast of profit and sales and computes pricing and shelf space allocation strategies that maximise long-term profit. It offers facilities such as the study of coalitions, long-term decision-making in all phases of a product's life cycle, the impact of pricing, allocation strategies, production expansion, cost regulation, and others. The operationality of the system is illustrated in decision-making situations in the tile industry.     

Unified methodology of neural analysis in decision support systems built for pharmaceutical technology

The objective of this study was to create universal methodology of artificial neural networks (ANNs) application in construction of decision support systems designed for various dosage forms. Two different dosage forms (solid dispersions and microemulsions) were modeled with use of the same methodology, software and hardware environments. Completely different models prepared confirmed their generalization ability both for solid dosage forms (solid dispersions) and liquid dosage forms (microemulsions). ME_expert and SD_expert systems basing on the neural expert committees were created. In the pilot study their application allowed for appropriate choice of qualitative and quantitative composition of particular pharmaceutical formulation. It was also proposed that ME_expert and SD_expert might provide in silico formulation procedures. Unified methodology of neural modeling in pharmaceutical technology was confirmed to be effective in providing valuable tools for pharmaceutical product development.     

A decision support system for locating VHF/UHF radio jammer systems on the terrain

In this study, a mathematical model is suggested concerning the location of VHF/UHF frequency radio jammer systems to the terrain parts to conduct single frequency or sequential frequency jamming, and then a decision support system (DSS), based on the suggested model, is formed. Location problem is modelled by the maximum covering location problem and LINGO-8 package program is used to solve the model. Interaction with the user is provided via the MS-Excel program in the DSS. In the application part of the study, a scenario was set up and the model was run for the two cases, weighted and equally weighted situations of the targets. With the same scenario, backup positions for the jammer systems were tried to be determined and solutions for the scenario were evaluated.

Fundamental issues of decision support systems: A consequentialist perspective

While considerable enthusiasm for DSS exists in many quarters, there are still a number of fundamental issues which have not been seriously addressed. Of particular concern, is how DSS is likely to affect organizations. This philosophically motivated paper analyzes the underlying assumptions of DSS and develops an approach for consequence determination. Moreover, the paper uses this approach to assess how DSS might affect various organizational elements.     

Fuzzy logic based decision support for mass evacuations of cities prone to coastal or river floods

Facing climate change and more frequent extreme weather conditions, coastal floods and inundations will become more severe. Evacuation can be an efficient solution to secure people's safety in a major disaster. The main difficulty in making an evacuation decision is the imprecise, incomplete and spatially varying nature of the crisis information. In this paper, a fuzzy-logic based method combined with Geographic Information System is proposed to analyze evacuation decision making scenarios. The method can handle qualitative and quantitative data at the same time, avoid sudden changes of decisions affected by uncertainties, and evaluate the spatial necessity to evacuate to support evacuation decision making. The method has been tested at the city of Bordeaux in France. The maps produced representing the need to evacuate can help decision makers better understand evacuation decision situation in terms of local impacts and crisis management anticipation.     

A dynamic decision support system to predict the value of customer for new product development

In recent years, firms have focused on how to enter markets and meet customer requirements by improving product attributes and processes to boost their market share and profits. Consequently, market-driven product design and development has become a popular topic in the literature. However, past research neither covers all of the major influencing factors that together drive customers to make purchase decisions, nor connects these various influencing factors to customer purchasing behavior. Past studies further fail to take the time value of money and customer value into consideration. This study proposes a decision support system to (a) predict customer purchasing behavior given certain product, customer, and marketing influencing factors, and (b) estimate the net customer lifetime value from customer purchasing behavior toward a specific product. This will not only enable decision-makers to compare alternatives and select competitive products to launch on the market, but will also improve the understanding of customer behavior toward particular products for the formulation of effective marketing strategies that increase customer loyalty and generate greater profits in the long term. Decision-makers can also make use of the system to build up confidence in new product development in terms of idea generation and product improvement. The application of the proposed system is illustrated and confirmed to be sensible and convincing through a case study.     

A decision fusion based methodology for fault Prognostic and Health Management of complex systems

Prognostic and Health Management (PHM) represents an active field of research and a major scientific challenge in many domains. It usually focuses on the failure time or the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction of a system.This paper presents a generic framework, based on a discrete Bayesian Network (BN), particularly tailored for decision fusion of heterogeneous prognostic methods. The BN parameters are computed according to the fixed prognostic objectives.The effectiveness of the proposed decision fusion based methodology for the prognostic is demonstrated through the RULs estimation of turbofan engines. The application highlights the ability of the approach to estimate RULs which overpasses the performance of most other published results in the literature.     

A knowledge-based decision support system for measuring the performance of government real estate investment

This paper describes a knowledge-based decision support system for measuring the performance of government real estate investment using DEA models. We propose an evaluation framework for real estate investment, including a database, a model base, and a knowledge base, to create a tool that a government can use to deal with decision-making problems via the Internet. This decision support system converts numerical data into information that can be used to evaluate possible real estate investments. Particularly, rules in the rule base are explained in more detail for illustrating the process of reasoning and KDSSGREI adapts quickly and accurately to infer and generate suggestions or actions. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to perform efficiency analysis in this paper. Finally, we apply China's case to obtain strategies for reforming real estate investment.     

A conceptual framework of information systems for organizational creativity support. lessons from empirical investigations

Based on a review of the subject literature, a conceptual framework of information systems for organizational creativity support is proposed. The most important elements in creating such a system are identified and described. Finally, the results of a survey conducted in twenty-five organizations are used to better understand the most important elements and factors determining the development of information systems for organizational creativity support.     

Bayesian inference in disputed authorship: A case study of cognitive errors and a new system for decision support

Bayesian inference provides a formal framework for assessing the odds of hypotheses in light of evidence. This makes Bayesian inference applicable to a wide range of diagnostic challenges in the field of chance discovery, including the problem of disputed authorship that arises in electronic commerce, counter-terrorism and other forensic applications. For example, when two documents are so similar that one is likely to be a hoax written from the other, the question is: Which document is most likely the source and which document is most likely the hoax? Here I review a Bayesian study of disputed authorship performed by a biblical scholar, and I show that the scholar makes critical errors with respect to several issues, namely: Causal Basis, Likelihood Judgment and Conditional Dependency. The scholar’s errors are important because they have a large effect on his conclusions and because similar errors often occur when people, both experts and novices, are faced with the challenges of Bayesian inference. As a practical solution, I introduce a graphical system designed to help prevent the observed errors. I discuss how this decision support system applies more generally to any problem of Bayesian inference, and how it differs from the graphical models of Bayesian Networks.     

A multi-objective reliability-based decision support system for incorporating decision maker utilities in the design of infrastructure

Infrastructure comprises the most fundamental facilities and systems serving society. Because infrastructure exists in economic, social, and environmental contexts, all lifecycle phases of such facilities should maximize utility for society, occupants, and designers. However, due to uncertainties associated with the nature of the built environment, the economic, social, and environmental (i.e., triple bottom line) impacts of infrastructure assets must be described as probabilistic. For this reason, optimization models should aim to maximize decision maker utilities with respect to multiple and potentially conflicting probabilistic decision criteria. Although stochastic optimization and multi-objective optimization are well developed in the field of operations research, their intersection (multi-objective optimization under uncertainty) is much less developed and computationally expensive. This article presents a computationally efficient, adaptable, multi-objective decision support system for finding optimal infrastructure design configurations with respect to multiple probabilistic decision criteria and decision maker requirements (utilities). The proposed model utilizes the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) in a systems reliability approach to assess the reliability of alternative infrastructure design configurations with regard to the probabilistic decision criteria and decision maker defined utilities, and prioritizes the decision criteria that require improvement. A pilot implementation is undertaken on a nine-story office building in Los Angeles, California to illustrate the capabilities of the framework. The results of the pilot implementation revealed that “high-performing” design configurations (with higher initial costs and lower failure costs) had a higher probability of meeting the decision maker’s preferences than more traditional, low initial cost configurations. The proposed framework can identify low-impact designs that also maximize decision maker utilities.     

A self-organizing feature maps and data mining based decision support system for liability authentications of traffic crashes

This study develops a decision support tool for liability authentications of two-vehicle crashes based on generated self-organizing feature maps (SOM) and data mining (DM) models. Factors critical to liability attributions commonly identified theoretically and practically were first selected. Both SOM and DM models were then generated for frontal, side, and rear collisions of two-vehicle crashes. Appropriateness of all generated models was evaluated and confirmed. Finally, a decision support tool was developed using active server pages. Although with small data size, the decision support system was considered capable of giving reasonably good liability attributions and references on given cases.