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含缺陷压力管线概率失效准则的研究 I.压力管线重要度的模糊评价方法 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
指出压力管线重要度的评价是建立压力管线概率失效准则的基础。进而提出了一套石化、化工压力管线重要度的模糊评价方法 ,为含缺陷压力管线概率失效准则的研究奠定了基础 相似文献
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指出压力管线重要度的评价是建立压力管线概率失效准则的基础,进而提出了一套石化,化工压力管线重要度的模糊评价方法,为含缺陷压力管线概率失效准则的研究奠定了基础。 相似文献
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应用模糊随机概率理论,在同时考虑压力管道评定参数的随机性和失效模式模糊性的基础上,指出含缺陷压力管道的失效概率实际上是一个模糊随机概率,进而提出了计算含缺陷压力管道模糊失效概率的方法。这种方法与仅考虑参数的随机性相比,更科学合理、更符合工程实际。 相似文献
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为了准确评价含局部减薄缺陷管道的剩余强度,研究了API579-2007标准含局部减薄缺陷管道剩余强度的评价方法,针对长输管线,对评价流程进行了优化。以X80长输管线为研究对象,基于API579标准,完成了对含局部减薄缺陷管线的安全评定,得到的给定局部减薄缺陷下管道最大运行压力真实反映了含局部减薄缺陷管道的承载能力,二级评价的结果比一级评价更为精确,证明了API579标准评价含局部减薄缺陷管道的剩余强度的合理性。开发出含局部减薄缺陷的长输管线安全评定软件,该软件大大减少了安全评定过程中计算的工作量,提高了长输管线的安全评定工作效率,降低了评定的难度。 相似文献
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裂纹缺陷是压力管道在服役过程中频繁产生的缺陷,对其进行安全评定就显得格外重要。对含裂纹缺陷进行安全评定方法很多,本文主要研究基于失效评定图技术的含裂纹缺陷压力管道的安全评定方法。 相似文献
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第三方破坏不仅取决于管道自身条件,而且还受外部环境、运行管理条件的直接影响,所引起的管道失效概率具有很强的随机性。本文对欧洲输气管道失效数据库提供的相关失效数据进行线性回归分析,结合浙江省级天然气管道运行情况,基于风险评估第三方破坏评分体系与权重确定方法,综合考虑管道环境和运行管理条件,提出了管道第三方破坏失效概率预测模型。运用VB语言编制了计算程序,对8条管线进行计算,计算结果表明:对浙江省级天然气管道失效概率影响最大的因素是管径、壁厚和埋深。所建立的预测模型可作为评判输气管道第三方破坏的量化指标,为浙江省级天然气管道的运行、维护和检测提供参考依据。 相似文献
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水合物的生成给湿气管道流动安全带来隐患,管道流动安全评价对于保障安全生产和减少损失具有重要意义。湿气管道内水合物形成概率的计算是湿气管线流动安全评价的基础。选择管道入口参数为随机因素,基于可靠性的极限状态法,选用较高精度的Har-PR预测酸性天然气含水量,在湿气管线水力和热力计算基础上,按Chen-Guo模型计算水合物形成条件,以实际流动温度和水合物形成温度之差建立概率极限状态方程,采用组合概率法计算管线的水合物形成概率。分析环道入口数据认为,入口压力、温度符合正态分布,流量符合最大极值分布。示例计算表明:随机变量的均值和标准差都影响着湿气管道的水合物形成概率;湿气管道的水合物形成概率对不同随机工艺参数的敏感性不同;单随机变量样本数和组合随机变量样本总数同时影响着全线的水合物形成概率。 相似文献
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从满足工程实际应用的要求出发 ,初步确定石化、化工压力管线的可接受失效概率范围为[10 -6,10 -4]。在已建立了较为合理的压力管线重要度的模糊评价方法的基础上 ,应用模糊集理论中的扩张原则 ,建立了根据某一被评压力管线的重要性程度来确定其可接受失效概率的方法 相似文献
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Plant-specific dynamic failure assessment using Bayesian theory 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Anjana Meel 《Chemical engineering science》2006,61(21):7036-7056
Abnormal events of varying magnitudes result in incipient faults, near-misses, incidents, and accidents in chemical plants. Their detection and diagnosis has been an active area of research [Venkatasubramanian, V., Rengaswamy, R., Kavuri, S.N., 2003a. A review of process fault detection and diagnosis, Part II: Quantitative model and search strategies. Computers and Chemical Engineering 27(3), 313-326; Venkatasubramanian, V., Rengaswamy, R., Kavuri, S.N., Yin, K., 2003b. A review of process fault detection and diagnosis, Part III: Process history based methods. Computers and Chemical Engineering 27(3), 327-346]. However, estimation of the failure probabilities of safety systems to predict these consequences (end-states), has received little attention in the CPI. In this work, methods for plant-specific, dynamic risk assessment are developed to predict the frequencies of abnormal events utilizing accident precursor data, helping to achieve inherently safer operations. These methods, which involve repetitive risk analysis after abnormal events occur, are especially beneficial for operations involving complex nonlinearities and multi-component interactions. Herein, the failure probabilities of safety systems and end-states are estimated using copulas and Bayesian analysis to ensure better predictions. The joint probability distribution for the failure probability of a safety system(s) having different consequences is modeled using the Cuadras and Auges copula [Nelsen, R.B., 1999. An Introduction to Copulas. Lecture Notes in Statistics, Springer, New York]. Accident precursor data are used to modify dynamically the initial estimates of failure probabilities to obtain posterior failure probabilities of the safety systems of an exothermic reactor. Finally, fuzzy memberships to various critical zones are formulated as a function of end-state probabilities to judge the safety status of a chemical plant. 相似文献
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针对石化企业过程安全风险分析缺乏多源异构数据融合、难以解析风险动态时变机理的现状。首先基于改进的模糊Petri网建立风险动态传播模型,考虑初始事件失效、保护层失效和修正因子等参数,得到风险的实时变化概率;然后分析不同保护层失效对事故发生概率的影响,得到不同保护层的重要程度;最后,以正己烷缓冲罐溢流发生火灾爆炸事故为例进行动态风险计算,分析对比其在不同保护层失效下的事故发生概率变化,结果表明安全联锁系统对事故发生起关键作用,日常应加大对其检测力度,防止事故发生。 相似文献
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The fracture toughness of polycarbonate specimens of 3–9 mm thickness obtained from an actual aircraft canopy, were studied under accelerated weathering conditions and different rates of loading. Although no significant effects of thickness and loading rate on the critical stress intensity factors were observed, two different failure modes, brittle fracture and ductile fracture triggered by “pop-in,” were observed. The mode of failure was a random event and the probability of ductile failure associated with pop-in increases with the weathering time. More insight to material characteristics are gained through analysis of the specific fracture energy (SFE). The average values of SFE decrease monotonically with accelerated weathering time. This effect is ascribed to physical aging of the PC in the weatherometer that was corroborated through increases in density. The values of SFE seem to correlate with the probability for ductile fracture. This information can be used to establish conservative critical stress values for design. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 相似文献
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