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1.
In January 1994 mass antibiotic prophylaxis was undertaken in the contiguous villages of Deir el-Asad and B'ine in northern Israel (combined population of 11600) in response to a prolonged outbreak of serogroup B meningococcal infection with an overall annual rate of 37.4 cases of infection per 100000 residents. The average case fatality rate in the villages was 23% compared with 11% in Israel during the same period. Neisseria meningitidis group B was identified in 9 of 13 (69%) cases. Seven of these were subtype P1.7,16. The persistence of the outbreak with its accompanying public reaction prompted the establishment of an intervention programme that included antibiotic prophylaxis for the whole community with monitoring for pharyngeal carriage of meningococci in a stratified sample of the population. The objectives were to achieve a reduction of carriage of the outbreak strain and to reduce morbidity and mortality. A total of 1036 pharyngeal swabs were taken 1 day before and 6 weeks after treatment. Antibiotic prophylaxis was administered in one dose: children under 5-years-old received ceftriaxone i.m.; all others received oral ciprofloxacin. Overall, 96% of the population received treatment. The carriage rate was 8.3% prior to treatment (three serogroup B:14:P1.7,16), and 1.3% afterwards (one serogroup B:14:P1.7,16). The intervention failed to eradicate carriage of the putative outbreak strain, or to reduce the incidence and fatality rates in the villages. The outbreak finally terminated in late 1996. Public health professionals should bear this experience in mind when faced with prolonged, localized, nonexplosive outbreaks of meningococcal disease associated with low carriage rates of the outbreak strain.  相似文献   

2.
Understanding the basis of sporadic (endemic) meningococcal disease may be critical to prevention of meningococcal epidemic outbreaks and to understanding fluctuations in incidence. Active, prospective, population-based surveillance and molecular epidemiologic techniques were used to study sporadic serogroup C meningococcal disease in a population of 2.34 million persons (Atlanta area). During 1988-1994, in which no outbreaks or case clusters were reported, 71 patients developed sporadic serogroup C meningococcal disease (annual incidence, 0.51/100,000). Eighty-three percent of patients were >2 years old. By multilocus enzyme electrophoresis, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, and serotyping, 84% (52/62) of the isolates available for study were identical or closely related members of the electrophoretic type 37 (ET 37) complex responsible for multiple serogroup C outbreaks in the United States in the 1990s. Sporadic disease caused by 9 clonal strains occurred over periods up to 4 years and accounted for 45% (28/62) of cases. Sporadic serogroup C meningococcal disease was most often due to a limited number of related strains that appear to slowly circulate in the population.  相似文献   

3.
CONTEXT: In 1994, surveillance by the Chicago Department of Public Health detected a growing trend in the proportion of invasive meningococcal infections caused by serogroup Y. OBJECTIVE: To examine the emergence of serogroup Y meningococcal disease and compare its clinical characteristics with those of other meningococcal serogroups. DESIGN: Population-based retrospective review of surveillance records; medical record review and cohort analysis of serogroup Y vs non-serogroup Y case patients. SETTING: Chicago, III. PARTICIPANTS: City residents with Neisseria meningitidis isolated from a normally sterile site from January 1, 1991, through December 31, 1997; cohort analysis included those identified through March 31, 1996. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Serogroup-specific incidence, demographics, and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: We identified 214 case patients; 53 (25%) had serogroup Y. The attack rate of serogroup Y meningococcal disease increased from 0.04 cases per 100000 in 1991 to a peak of 0.82 cases per 100000 in 1995 and subsequently decreased to 0.26 cases per 100000 and 0.34 cases per 100000 in 1996 and 1997, respectively. Compared with patients infected by other serogroups, patients with serogroup Y were older (median age, 16 years vs 1 year; P = .001) and more likely to have a chronic underlying illness (prevalence ratio, 2.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-4.4). Outcome did not differ significantly between the 2 groups. Multilocus enzyme electrophoresis typing of isolates from 19 case patients identified 5 different types. We found no clustering among the enzyme types by age, race/ethnicity, community area, or time. CONCLUSIONS: Serogroup Y emerged as the most frequent cause of meningococcal disease in Chicago in 1995 and accounted for a substantial proportion of cases in 1996 and 1997. Current data suggest that the magnitude of serogroup Y meningococcal disease is sufficient for vaccine developers to incorporate serogroup Y into new vaccines.  相似文献   

4.
Since the Latin American cholera epidemic began in 1991, 447 isolates of Vibrio cholerae O1 from the Western Hemisphere have been assayed by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis (MEE) to determine allelic variation among 16 enzyme-encoding genes. Two electrophoretic types (ETs) were identified among toxigenic isolates from Latin America: 323 were ET 4, the ET associated with the Latin American epidemic, and 29 were ET 3. Twenty-three of these ET 3 isolates had a distinctive antimicrobial resistance pattern also seen in isolates imported into the United States from Latin America and Southeast Asia. These resistant isolates had an identical ribotype and nearly identical pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) patterns. Most nontoxigenic isolates analyzed were not precursors or descendants of toxigenic epidemic strains. MEE provided a population genetic frame-work for the interpretation of PFGE and ribotype data from the isolates in this study. All three methods identified 2 distinct strains of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 currently epidemic in Latin America.  相似文献   

5.
OBJECTIVE: To determine the total and functional serogroup C antibody response to a quadrivalent meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine in a group of aboriginal infants, children and adolescents. A secondary objective was to determine their prevalence of meningococcal carriage. DESIGN: Open prospective, before and after intervention study. SUBJECTS: Aboriginal children ages 0.5 to 19.9 years, living in a single Northern community and eligible for a public health immunization campaign conducted in all Manitoba native reserve communities to control a meningococcal serogroup C, electrophoretic type (ET) 15 outbreak. No outbreak cases had occurred in the community at the time of the study. METHODS: Total serogroup C capsular polysaccharide antibody (CPA) and functional bactericidal antibody (BA) responses were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and bactericidal assay, respectively. RESULTS: Neisseria meningitidis was recovered from the oropharynx of 13 (5.2%) of 249 aboriginal children including 4 (1.6%) serogroup C isolates, all with the designation C:2a:P1.2,5 ET15. Paired sera from 152 children were available for assay. For CPA the geometric mean concentrations and proportions with > or =2 microg/ml before and after immunization were 0.69, 18% and 12.3, 96%, respectively. A significant increase in serum CPA was achieved by children of all ages, with the greatest response occurring after age 11 years. Among infants < lyear old 89% achieved concentrations of > or =2 microg/ml. For BA the pre- and post-vaccine geometric mean titers were 1.02 and 45.9. The response was significantly associated with age. BA titers > or =1:8 were present, before and after immunization, respectively, in 0 and 0% of infants <1 year old, 0 and 20% of 1- to 1.4-year-olds, 0 and 50% of 1.5- to 1.9-year-olds and 1 and 100% of > or =2-year-olds. CONCLUSION: The age-related total and functional group C meningococcal antibody response after quadrivalent polysaccharide vaccine among aboriginals is similar to that reported for Caucasian children. After age 2 all children made excellent CPA and BA responses. In the younger age groups the BA response was blunted but 82 to 95% achieved CPA titers of > or =2 microg/ml.  相似文献   

6.
Randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) genotyping was applied to one representative strain of each of the 84 electrophoretic types (ETs) of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A previously defined by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis (MEE) (J.-F. Wang et al., Infect. Immun. 60:5267-5282, 1992). Twenty-seven additional isolates comprising six ETs were also tested. MEE and RAPD genotyping yielded similar dendrograms at the subgroup level. Similar results were obtained by both methods for 18 serogroup A meningococci isolated in The Netherlands between 1989 and 1993. Ten of these isolates defined a new subgroup, designated subgroup IX. One isolate belonged to the ET-5 complex, normally associated with serogroup B strains (D. A. Caugant et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 83:4927-4931, 1986). By RAPD genotyping, meningococci can be linked to previously characterized genotypes by using a computerized database, and dendrograms based on cluster analyses can easily be generated. RAPD analysis offers advantages over MEE since intermediate numbers of isolates of serogroup A meningococci can quickly be assigned to known subgroups and new subgroups can be defined.  相似文献   

7.
BACKGROUND: The role of sampling nasopharyngeal carriage isolates of Streptococcus pneumoniae to determine characteristics of isolates causing invasive disease has not been established. METHODS: Data were compared from two 1995 studies of S. pneumoniae in Metropolitan Toronto and Peel Region (population, 3.1 million). The first was a prospective survey of nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage in child care centers. The second was a prospective surveillance for all cases of invasive disease. RESULTS: There were 545 NP S. pneumoniae isolates obtained from 532 children and 96 cases of invasive S. pneumoniae disease in children. The prevalences of reduced antibiotic susceptibility in the NP carriage and invasive studies, respectively, were: penicillin (16% vs. 11%, P=0.29); erythromycin (12% vs. 7%, P=0.25); and multiresistant (16% vs. 12%, P=0.34). The power to rule out a difference between the groups was <30% for each comparison. Trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole resistance was more common in NP carriage isolates than invasive isolates (38% vs. 23%, P=0.02). Serotype 14 was more common in invasive isolates, whereas serogroup 6 was more common in NP carriage isolates. Antibiotic-resistant isolates were predominantly serogroups 6, 19 and 23 in both studies. CONCLUSIONS: Nasopharyngeal carriage isolates of S. pneumoniae reflect the antibiotic susceptibility rates of invasive isolates found in the same period for most antibiotics. However, even a large study like this may have limited power to detect a difference. The most common NP carriage serotypes are the same as the invasive isolates, although the rank order of specific serotypes is different. Routine surveys of S. pneumoniae NP carriage are not feasible because of the cost of serotyping and limited power of the observations, unless sample sizes are extremely large.  相似文献   

8.
New Zealand is experiencing an epidemic of serogroup B meningococcal disease, which has taken the rate of disease from an average of 1.5/100,000 population in the preepidemic years of 1989 and 1990 to 14.0/100,000 in 1996. Sterile-site isolates of Neisseria meningitidis from cases of invasive disease have been phenotypically characterized by serogrouping, serotyping, and serosubtyping, revealing the involvement of a strain with phenotype B:4:P1.4. Macrorestriction analysis using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis on 667 meningococci isolated from cases during the epidemic has identified the clonal relationship of meningococci expressing the PorA P1.4 antigen. Multilocus enzyme electrophoresis has shown the epidemic strain B:4:P1.4 to belong to lineage III. The recorded characteristics of New Zealand's epidemic are consistent with previous serogroup B epidemics in other parts of the world.  相似文献   

9.
CONTEXT: Use of the quadrivalent meningococcal vaccine for control of outbreaks has increased in recent years, but the efficacy of meningococcal vaccine during mass vaccination campaigns in US civilian populations has not been assessed. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy of the quadrivalent meningococcal vaccine against serogroup C meningococcal disease in a community outbreak setting and to evaluate potentially modifiable barriers to vaccination in an area with persistent meningococcal disease following immunization. DESIGN: Matched case-control study of vaccine efficacy using cases of serogroup C meningococcal disease in persons eligible for vaccination during mass vaccination campaigns. Control patients were matched by neighborhood and age. The control group was used to identify possible barriers to vaccination. SETTING: Gregg County, Texas, population 106076, from 1993 to 1995. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 17 case patients with serogroup C meningococcal disease eligible for vaccine and 84 control patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Vaccine efficacy and risk factors associated with nonvaccination. RESULTS: Vaccine efficacy among 2- to 29-year-olds was 85% (95% confidence interval, 27%-97%) and did not change in bivariate analyses with other risk factors that were significant in univariate analysis. Among control patients, older age was strongly associated with nonvaccination; vaccination rates for 2- to 4-year-olds, 5- to 18-year-olds, and 19- to 29-year-olds were 67%, 48%, and 20%, respectively (chi2 for linear trend, P=.01). CONCLUSIONS: The meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine was effective against serogroup C meningococcal disease in this community outbreak. Although specific barriers to vaccination were not identified, older age was a risk factor for nonvaccination in the target population of 2- to 29-year-olds. In future outbreaks, emphasis should be placed on achieving high vaccination coverage, with special efforts to vaccinate young adults.  相似文献   

10.
Forty-two Neisseria meningitidis isolates were obtained from patients with meningococcal disease in the Norwegian county of Telemark (January 1987 to March 1995), and all were compared by PCR amplicon restriction endonuclease analysis (PCR-AREA) of the dhps gene, chromosomal DNA fingerprinting, and serological analysis. PCR-AREA divided the isolates into 11 classes, of which 4, comprising 15, 8, 6, and 2 isolates, were clonal while the remaining 8 classes were genetically heterogeneous or contained only 1 isolate. Three of the four clonal classes could be tentatively equated with recognized epidemic clones (ET5, ET37, and cluster A4) on the basis of their phenotypic characteristics, while the remaining clone appears to be new. There were significant differences in the geographical distribution of clones, with class 1 (ET5-like) isolates significantly overrepresented in rural parts of Telemark. Class 1 (ET5-like) isolates occurred throughout the study period and were dominant in 1987. Class 2 (ET37-like) isolates occurred from 1988 to 1992, and class 3 isolates (with no recognizable ET affinities) were found only in 1991 and 1992.  相似文献   

11.
A retrospective study of microbiology laboratory records of culture-confirmed cases of meningococcal disease in children under 14 years of age, admitted to four Dublin hospitals, was conducted for the period 1981-1991 inclusive. The study aimed to describe the epidemiology of meningococcal disease in childhood and to assess the potential of meningococcal group A and C vaccine in preventing disease. There were 406 cases of meningococcal disease of which 319 (78.6%) were in children under 5 years of age. The meningitis to septicaemia ratio was almost 4:1 (320 vs. 86 cases). Of the 406 cases, 216 (53.2%) cases occurred during the period November to March. The age-specific annual incidence rates for the Eastern Health Board region served was 64.2 per 100,000 under 1 year of age and 24.6 per 100,000 under 5 years of age. A relative increase in disease caused by meningococcal serogroup C was observed during the period of the study. Only 15% all cases could have been prevented by a policy of universal meningococcal group A and C immunisation at 2 years of age. Such a policy, therefore, is not recommended. A vaccine for preventing disease caused by meningococcal group B is urgently required.  相似文献   

12.
Rapid, non-culture, serogroup determination of meningococcal infection is important in contact management where vaccination may be possible. The impending availability of polysaccharide-protein conjugate vaccines for serogroup C disease requires maximal case ascertainment, with serogroup determination, at a time when the number of culture confirmed meningococcal infections is decreasing. A polymerase chain reaction assay (PCR), based on a restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) in the meningococcal serogroup B and C sialytransferase (siaD) gene, was developed to combine the non-culture diagnosis of meningococcal infection from CSF, whole blood and serum with serogroup (B and C) identification. The PCR assay was adapted to an ELISA format incorporating hybridization with serogroup-specific B and C oligonucleotide probes. Specificity for CSFs was 100% and sensitivities were respectively 81, 63 and 30% for CSFs, whole blood and sera. The serogroup-specific PCR ELISA is a significant addition to currently available tests for non-culture diagnosis of meningococcal infection and outbreak investigation.  相似文献   

13.
A multistate outbreak of Legionnaires' disease occurred among nine tour groups of senior citizens returning from stays at one of two lodges in a Vermont resort in October 1987. Interviews and serologic studies of 383 (85%) of the tour members revealed 17 individuals (attack rate, 4.4%) with radiologically documented pneumonia and laboratory evidence of legionellosis. A survey of tour groups staying at four nearby lodges and of Vermont-area medical facilities revealed no additional cases. Environmental investigation of common tour stops revealed no likely aerosol source of Legionella infection outside the lodges. Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 was isolated from water sources at both implicated lodges, and the monoclonal antibody subtype matched those of the isolates from six patients from whom clinical isolates were obtained. The cultures reacted with monoclonal antibodies MAB1, MAB2, 33G2, and 144C2 to yield a 1,2,5,7 or a Benidorm 030E pattern. The strains were also identical by alloenzyme electrophoresis and DNA ribotyping techniques. The epidemiologic and laboratory data suggest that concurrent outbreaks occurred following exposures to the same L. pneumophila serogroup 1 strain at two separate lodges. Multiple molecular subtyping techniques can provide essential information for epidemiologic investigations of Legionnaires' disease.  相似文献   

14.
We experienced small outbreaks of M. tuberculosis infection in two bars. 9 patients were diagnosed as tuberculosis by identifying M. tuberculosis from their sputa. Six of them were regular customers or employees of the bar, one of them was a family members. Each outbreak within the two bars was suspected of the common source of infection, because one patient was a regular customer of the both bars. The analysis of restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) was done on 5 strains of M. tuberculosis which were isolated from five of 9 patients. The result unexpectedly showed that 5 isolates were classified into 3 groups. Within each group, identical fingerprints were shown. It does mean that each outbreak in two bars was originated from independent source. There was also one relapsed case of tuberculosis. He was suspected of relapsed tuberculosis after a period of 7 years because of the similarity of drug resistance compared with his primary tuberculosis. It was cleared up that 3 different strains of M. tuberculosis were concerned with these outbreaks in the two bars. In this case, almost all patients were heavy drinkers, however, liver dysfunction and malnutrition were not recognized among them. These experiences indicate that a place like bar may be a space of infection of M. tuberculosis. We should always keep in mind a spread of tuberculosis in a place like a bar as one of problems in tuberculosis control.  相似文献   

15.
A typing method was developed for Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A by analysis of restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLP) of the class 1 outer membrane protein gene (porA). By using appropriate primers, an approximately 1,116-bp fragment of the porA gene was amplified by PCR and then was digested with the restriction endonuclease MspI. The digestion products were separated on 10% polyacrylamide gels and were stained with silver. One hundred three clinical isolates of group A N. meningitidis from 17 provinces of China collected over a 26-year period were analyzed. Results of MspI-generated RFLP profiles of PCR-amplified porA genes were compared with those obtained by conventional serosubtyping. There was a band of about 400 bp common to all strains examined, and the 103 strains of serogroup A resulted in 22 unique RFLP patterns. The differences in bands could be observed mainly in the range of 120 to 280 bp. The smaller fragments were useful in distinguishing meningococci with the same serosubtype. Three epidemic periods were characterized by the presence of three distinct genotypes (a1, a2, and a3), accounting for 74.5% of the strains examined (3.88, 26.21, and 44.66%, respectively). Three predominant RFLP patterns were correlated epidemiologically with cycles of epidemic meningococcal meningitis and were well-matched to the predominant serosubtypes (P1.9, P1.7, 10, and P1.9) that presented at the same prevalence cycles. The genotyping yielded information that allowed strains from one epidemic to be distinguished from those from another that would have been indistinguishable if only serotyping and serosubtyping were available. Therefore, the PCR-RFLP typing method was very useful in the epidemiologic investigation of group A meningococcal meningitis.  相似文献   

16.
BACKGROUND: In 1994, a hospital reported an increase in nosocomial legionnaires' disease after implementing use of a rapid urinary antigen test for Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 (Lp-1). This hospital was the site of a previous nosocomial legionnaires' disease outbreak during 1980 to 1982. METHODS: Infection control records were reviewed to compare rates of nosocomial pneumonia and the proportion of cases attributable to legionnaires' disease during the 1994 outbreak period with those during the same period in 1993. Water samples were collected for Legionella culture from the hospital's potable water system and cooling towers, and isolates were subtyped by monoclonal antibody (MAb) testing and arbitrarily primed polymerase chain reaction (AP-PCR). RESULTS: Nosocomial pneumonia rates were similar from April through October 1993 and April through October 1994: 5.9 and 6.6 per 1,000 admissions, respectively (rate ratio [RR], 1.1; P=.56); however, 3.2% of nosocomial pneumonias were diagnosed as legionnaires' disease in 1993, compared with 23.9% in 1994 (RR, 9.4; P<.001). In 1994, most legionnaires' disease cases were detected by the urinary antigen testing alone. MAb testing and AP-PCR demonstrated identical patterns among Lp-1 isolates recovered from a patient's respiratory secretions, the hospital potable water system, and stored potable water isolates from the 1980 to 1982 outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: There may have been persistent transmission of nosocomial legionnaires' disease at this hospital that went undiscovered for many years because there was no active surveillance for legionnaires' disease. Introduction of a rapid urinary antigen test improved case ascertainment. Legionella species can be established in colonized plumbing systems and may pose a risk for infection over prolonged periods.  相似文献   

17.
BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of nosocomial infection by methicillin resistent Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) are a problem in many hospitals with the control measures to be adopted being controversial. An outbreak of MRSA in a 550-bed university hospital is herein described and the impact of the adopted control measures on the evolution of the epidemic in the general hospitalization area (GHA) was analyzed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The adopted control measures in the GHA were: microbiologic surveillance, cutaneous isolation measures, treatment of nasal carrier, and the early discharge of the cases. Hand washing was reinforced and a study of carriers was carried out on detection of sporadic cases (not related to the ICU). A molecular study of 70 strains of MRSA was performed with analysis of total plasmids, plasmid restriction pattern and chromosomic DNA analysis by pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). RESULTS: From December 1990 to December 1993, 273 cases of MRSA were reported. One hundred seventy-two cases originated in the ICU and 101 cases in the GHA (sporadic cases). The incidence of MRSA in 1991-1993 was 13.6, 14.3, and 6.6% in the ICU and 0.17, 0.36, and 0.15% in the GHA, respectively. Molecular study of MRSA isolates (1991 and 1992) demonstrated two plasmid and two chromosomic patterns. The latter had a similarity coefficient > 0.90, probably belonging to the same "clone". CONCLUSIONS: Despite the control measures adopted in the GHA the outbreak of MRSA originated in the ICU thereafter extending to the GHA. The rates of colonization detected, however, remained stable during the 3 years studied. On the other hand, the observation of a single "clone", responsible for the epidemic, suggest that most of the sporadic cases were autoctonous and due to failure in fulfillment of the established norms.  相似文献   

18.
From July 1994 through November 1996, a phenotypically unique strain of Pseudomonas aeruginosa producing a pungent, "rotten-potato" odor and a positive lysine decarboxylase reaction was isolated from 39 patients at UCLA Medical Center (Los Angeles). Most cases (95%) were in intensive care units and had clinical infections (72%). Most isolates (74%) were recovered from cultures of respiratory secretions. To determine risk factors for acquisition of the organism, 23 cases were compared with 23 randomly selected controls matched by service and isolate date. Multivariate analysis revealed that isolation of malodorous P. aeruginosa was associated with mechanical ventilation of > 24 hours' duration (odds ratio [OR] = 9.4; P = .001) and transfer from an outside hospital (OR = 5.7; P = .04). DNA from outbreak strains hybridized to P. aeruginosa-specific toxin A and phospholipase C gene probes and all outbreak isolates tested were found to be identical by use of pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. An unusual phenotypic characteristic of the strain led to the recognition of a nosocomial outbreak of P. aeruginosa infection associated with mechanical ventilation.  相似文献   

19.
OBJECTIVES: This study examined an outbreak of hepatitis A in eastern Sydney during 1991-1992. METHODS: Data were based on cases of hepatitis A in eastern Sydney residents reported from January 1991 to October 1992. RESULTS: Five hundred seventy cases of hepatitis A were reported. Of these, 515 (90%) occurred in male patients, of whom 330 were reported to be homosexual or bisexual. The highest attack rate (71/10,000) occurred in men aged 20 to 29 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: This outbreak affected large numbers of young homosexual men living in the inner eastern suburbs of Sydney. Hepatitis A vaccination should be considered for all susceptible homosexual men. Further research into the use of hepatitis A vaccine as an outbreak control measure is also recommended.  相似文献   

20.
OBJECTIVE: Random effects latent growth (LG) models were used to study the relation between changes in heavy alcohol use and changes in the frequency of bar patronage over a 3-year period. Previous research has identified a close link between alcohol use and bar patronage, but these cross-sectional findings limit inferences about possible temporal ordering. LG models are highlighted and compared with the more traditional but restricted cross-lagged models. METHOD: Three annual measures of heavy alcohol use and frequency of bar patronage were administered to a sample of 3071 adults (62% male) who participated in the National Longitudinal Study of Youch from 1982 to 1984. Background variables included age, gender, ethnicity and marital status. RESULTS: Heavy alcohol use and bar patronage were characterized by negative longitudinal growth trajectories and there was significant individual variability in these changes over time. Changes in heavy alcohol use closely paralleled corresponding changes in bar patronage. Finally, the Time 1 measures of each construct were inversely predictive of subsequent changes over time in the second construct. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that heavy alcohol users tended to continue to patronize bars, and bar patronage tended to encourage continued heavy alcohol use. This relation was particularly strong for singles and males. Compared to more traditional cross-lagged models, LG modeling appears to be a much stronger analytic technique for studying growth over time. It is recommended that LG models be used for future studies of change in alcohol use over time.  相似文献   

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