Research on energy storage capacity configuration for PV power plants using uncertainty analysis and its applications

Compensating for photovoltaic (PV) power forecast errors is an important function of energy storage systems. As PV power outputs have strong random fluctuations and uncertainty, it is difficult to satisfy the grid-connection requirements using fixed energy storage capacity configuration methods. In this paper, a method of configuring energy storage capacity is proposed based on the uncertainty of PV power generation. A k-means clustering algorithm is used to classify weather types based on differences in solar irradiance. The power forecast errors in different weather types are analyzed, and an energy storage system is used to compensate for the errors. The kernel density estimation is used to fit the distributions of the daily maximum power and maximum capacity requirements of the energy storage system; the power and capacity of the energy storage unit are calculated at different confidence levels. The optimized energy storage configuration of a PV plant is presented according to the calculated degrees of power and capacity satisfaction. The proposed method was validated using actual operating data from a PV power station. The results indicated that the required energy storage can be significantly reduced while compensating for power forecast errors.     

Optimization of Solar Hydrogen Systems Based on Hydrogen Production Cost

Hydrogen is regarded as a potential future energy carrier. It can be produced by the electrolysis of water with the required power supplied by a photovoltaic module. The hydrogen in this study was produced using a hydrogen generator with a solid polymer electrolyte. The required power was supplied by a photovoltaic module rated at 3.4 V, 27.45 A. The experimental system was designed and constructed so that the photovoltaic module was directly coupled to the hydrogen generator. The system characteristics: quantity of hydrogen produced, current/voltage output characteristics of the PV module, PV module and H₂ generator temperatures were measured and analyzed. A method to design a solar hydrogen energy system, providing the most cost effective hydrogen generation, was developed. In this method, the design point is chosen based on the irradiance during system operation under rated capacity. The data supplied by the experimental system clearly showed the importance of considering the ratio of photovoltaic module cost to hydrogen generator cost when designing an optimum solar hydrogen system.     

Available remodeling simulation for a BIPV as a shading device

A building integrated photovoltaic system as a shading device is used as an application and remodeling model. This study applies the simulation program SOLCEL and the computational fluid dynamics method to cases with solar irradiance components analysis and a ventilated double façade remodeling of the BIPV. For the validation of the theoretical work, experimental results of the Samsung Institute of Engineering and Construction Company building are used with a wind velocity of the weather data of Suwon area, Korea, where the real building is located. A photovoltaic system can be used only to generate electricity, but if a photovoltaic module can be used as an element of a double envelope, it could be more useful at the point of view of renewable energy usage and night insulation. Increase of PV module surface temperature is negative for power generation by installing PV module as an element of double envelope. A reasonable combination between renewable energy usage and power generation should be well analyzed for better usage of natural energy to design a BIPV.     

基于数据预处理与特征表示的多核SVM短期光伏发电预测

针对气温、降雨等气象数据有时难以获得且仅有的辐照度、光伏发电功率属于多源数据、毛刺多、具有不同特征的问题,提出了基于数据预处理与特征表示的多核支持向量机光伏预测方法,利用小波阈值分析法对光伏发电功率与辐照度进行去噪处理,通过对辐照度特征表示参数提取,进行SOM与k-means结合的二次聚类选取相似日,并采用多核支持向量机进行预测。结果表明,小波阈值去噪后能大幅提高预测精度,仅用辐照度与功率数据进行预测也能取得较高的预测精度,且多核预测精度高于单核预测精度。     

An axial-flux permanent-magnet generator for a gearless wind energysystem

The paper discuses the development of an axial-flux permanent-magnet generator for a gearless wind energy system which aims to demonstrate the feasibility of integrating wind and photovoltaic energy converters for the generation of electricity and to achieve optimum exploitation of the two energy sources. The merits of an axial-flux generator topology are discussed with reference to the particular requirements of an electrical generator for a direct-coupled wind turbine application. The design, construction and test results of a 5 kW, 200 rev/min permanent-magnet generator, to form a 10 kW pilot power plant with a 5 kW photovoltaic array, are presented     

Cloud effects on distributed photovoltaic generation: slowtransients at the Gardner, Massachusetts photovoltaic experiment

The Photovoltaic Generation Effects project was undertaken to verify that no serious consequences arise from the interconnection of distributed photovoltaic generation on electric power distribution systems. Here, slow transient responses at frequencies corresponding to fluctuations of photovoltaic generation resulting from the passage of clouds over the experiment site in Gardner, Massachusetts, are described. A statistical basis is developed extending the measured results to the entire area served by the distribution circuit in Gardner, as it might be both loaded and equipped with photovoltaic generation in the twenty-first century. Observations and analyses of the solar irradiance and photovoltaic system performance at a single point indicate that there are insufficient step changes in load levels to cause voltage flicker problems. Numerical techniques developed for interpolation of irradiance conditions over the experiment site are adequate for estimating the irradiance at intermediate points and times. The technique appears to be adaptable to extrapolation over larger areas     

Frequency deviation control by coordination control of FC and double-layer capacitor in an autonomous hybrid renewable energy power generation system

In this paper, a novel control strategy for frequency control in stand-alone application based on coordination control of fuel cells (FCs) and double-layer capacitor (DLC) bank in an autonomous hybrid renewable energy power generation system is implemented. The proposed renewable energy power generation subsystems include wind turbine generator (WTG), photovoltaic system (PV), FC system and DLC bank as energy storage system. The system performance under different condition has been verified by using real weather data. Simulation results demonstrate the validity of proposed studied hybrid power generation system feeding isolated loads in power frequency balance condition.     

风光互补电动汽车储能电站系统优化设计

通过对唐山市区太阳能和风能资源状况调查分析,对全年不同方位角和倾角上的太阳能辐射量进行模拟计算,得出南偏东9.8°方向、倾角为39.7°的倾斜面上接收的太阳能辐射量最大,其值为1.62×106Wh/m2。研究中对3kW风力发电机和1kW光伏发电系统的发电量进行了计算,并以1辆纯电动轿车为负载进行了容量配比优化,设计了风力发电系统、风光互补系统及光伏系统三种不同的方案,经过对各方案的经济性、可靠性及稳定性分析,得出最佳的设计方案为风光互补发电系统,该系统风力发电装机容量为3kW,光伏发电装机容量为8.96kW。     

Power limits of grid-connected modern wind energy systems

Wind energy is a prominent area of application of variable speed generators operating on the constant grid frequency. A modern wind energy system of this type consists of a surface mounted permanent-magnet generator with a frequency converter, which allows variable speed operation. The maximum power capability of the wind energy system is limited by the grid inverter. The theoretical formulation for active and reactive power limits is given. This formulation is used to set power reference limits to the inverter. Two different regions are distinguished depending on the tolerable Ac current harmonic distortion. Experimental results in a variable frequency wind energy generation system are shown.     

A regime-dependent artificial neural network technique for short-range solar irradiance forecasting

Solar power can provide substantial power supply to the grid; however, it is also a highly variable energy source due to changes in weather conditions, i.e. clouds, that can cause rapid changes in solar power output. Independent systems operators (ISOs) and regional transmission organizations (RTOs) monitor the demand load and direct power generation from utilities, define operating limits and create contingency plans to balance the load with the available power generation resources. ISOs, RTOs, and utilities will require solar irradiance forecasts to effectively and efficiently balance the energy grid as the penetration of solar power increases. This study presents a cloud regime-dependent short-range solar irradiance forecasting system to provide 15-min average clearness index forecasts for 15-min, 60-min, 120-min and 180-min lead-times. A k-means algorithm identifies the cloud regime based on surface weather observations and irradiance observations. Then, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are trained to predict the clearness index. This regime-dependent system makes a more accurate deterministic forecast than a global ANN or clearness index persistence and produces more accurate predictions of expected irradiance variability than assuming climatological average variability.     

Loss evaluation and design optimisation for direct driven permanent magnet synchronous generators for wind power

When designing a generator for a wind turbine it is important to adapt the generator to the source, i.e. the wind conditions at the specific site. Furthermore, the variable speed operation of the generator needs to be considered. In this paper, electromagnetic losses in direct driven permanent magnet synchronous generators are evaluated through simulations. Six different generators are compared to each other. The simulations are performed by using an electromagnetic model, solved in a finite element environment and a control model developed in MATLAB. It is shown that when designing a generator it is important to consider the statistical wind distribution, control system, and aerodynamic efficiency in order to evaluate the performance properly. In this paper, generators with high overload capability are studied since they are of interest for this specific application. It is shown that a generator optimised for a minimum of losses will have a high overload capability.     

一种并网型风光互补发电系统的建模与仿真

分析了风光互补发电系统的技术优势,设计了基于固态变压器结构的并网型风光互补发电系统。分别建立了光伏系统,风力发电系统,超级电容和蓄电池的模型,并分析各环节的控制策略,提出了基于平均功率的储能设备容量配置方法。仿真结果表明,该系统能模拟风光互补系统在不同模式下的运行特性,可以有效降低功率波动和维持电压稳定,并能在低光照强度、低风速等情况下为系统提供短时能量支撑。     

光伏发电系统功率预测方法研究综述

光伏发电大规模并网给电网的稳定运行带来巨大挑战,提高光伏发电功率预测水平对光伏能源并网安全具有重要意义。光伏发电系统功率输出具有明显的非线性、间接波动性和不确定性特点,须采用数学模型结合多尺度预测方法实现较高预测精度。针对多元线性回归算法、马尔科夫链预测、神经网络算法、支持向量机和组合预测等光伏系统输出功率的直接预测方法,及基于光伏电站精确建模的光伏系统输出功率的间接预测法,从基本思想、技术路线、适用条件和应用效果的角度进行分析与总结。当前功率预测方法主要有基于统计学的某种学习方法和组合预测方法,数据处理加工是关键因素。预测数据可用性的评估标准和预测方法的工程应用是未来研究工作的重点。     

An optimized autoregressive forecast error generator for wind and load uncertainty study

This paper presents a first‐order autoregressive algorithm used to generate real‐time (RT), hour‐ahead (HA) and day‐ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors in time series. The modeled error time series preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets. Four statistical characteristics are considered: the means, the standard deviations, the autocorrelations and the cross‐correlations. A stochastic optimization routine was used to find an optimal set of parameters that minimize the differences of the four characteristics between the generated error series and the targeted ones. The obtained parameters were then in due order of succession used to produce the RT, HA and DA forecasts. This method, although implemented as a first‐order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher orders. Simulation results have shown that the methodology produces random forecast error series that have statistics similar to those derived from real data sets. The wind and load forecast error generator can be used in wind integration studies to produce wind and load forecast in time series for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and on implementing them in the random forecast generator. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calculation of the polycrystalline PV module temperature using a simple method of energy balance

The performance of a photovoltaic module is studied versus environmental variables such as solar irradiance, ambient temperature and wind speed. Two types of simplified models are studied in this paper: a PV module temperature model and a PV module electrical efficiency model. These models have been validated utilizing experimental data from two experiments: a 850 Wp grid connected photovoltaic system and a p-Si module with eight temperature sensors integrated into the module. Both models have been coupled to determine the PV array output power versus the three meteorological parameters. This simple model using a simple energy balance and neglecting the radiation effects is in good agreement with the experimental data.     

A probabilistic method for the evaluation of the reliability ofstand alone wind energy systems

The author describes a probabilistic method for the computation of the loss of load probability and the expected unserved energy of a stand-alone wind energy system. The system consists of a wind generator and a storage battery supplying the consumer load. The statistics of the surplus generation (excess wind generation over load demand) time series are computed and used for the calculation of the desired reliability indices. It is shown, that in the probability computations, the serial correlation of the surplus generation cannot be ignored. The performance of the developed method is demonstrated with computational results. Some results useful for the design of stand-alone wind energy systems are also presented     

太阳能光伏发电量动力统计预报模式研究

以国外保加利亚鲁塞电站的历史气象资料及同期太阳能光伏发电观测资料为例,分析了不同气象要素与同期发电量的线性相关关系,构建了不同时间序列的光伏发电量统计预报模型,并对预报结果进行误差对比分析。研究结果表明,季节日值预报模型比全年日值预报模型、全年小时值预报模型和典型月日值预报的精度高。     

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather type classification using artificial neural network

Power forecasting is an important factor for planning the operations of photovoltaic (PV) system. This paper presents an advanced statistical method for solar power forecasting based on artificial intelligence techniques. The method requires as input past power measurements and meteorological forecasts of solar irradiance, relative humidity and temperature at the site of the photovoltaic power system. A self-organized map (SOM) is trained to classify the local weather type of 24 h ahead provided by the online meteorological services. A unique feature of the method is that following a preliminary weather type classification, the neural networks can be well trained to improve the forecast accuracy. The proposed method is suitable for operational planning of transmission system operator, i.e. forecasting horizon of 24 h ahead and for PV power system operators trading in electricity markets. Application of the forecasting method on the power production of an actual PV power system shows the validity of the method.     

An analysis for the need of a battery energy storage system in tracking wind power schedule output

电池储能系统(battery energy storage system,BESS)在风储联合应用中具有多种功能,利用电池储能系统提高风电并网调度运行能力是当前研究的热点之一.文章基于我国北方某风电场历史运行数据与预测数据,依据预测误差评价指标和风电场预报考核指标的综合评价方法对风电场预测数据进行分析研究,归纳了预测误差的概率分布特征;提出利用电池储能系统提高风电跟踪计划出力能力,统计并量化出电池储能系统用于跟踪计划出力场合的作用范围;通过仿真验证电池储能系统在风储联合系统中提高风电跟踪计划出力控制策略的有效性和可行性.