欧盟可再生能源发展形势和2020年发展战略目标分析

2010年,欧盟可再生能源发展呈现出新的形势:一方面,风电满足了欧盟5.3%的电力需求,已经开始发挥替代能源的战略作用;另一方面,光伏发电新增装机容量首次超过风电,显示出分布式光伏发电的巨大优势。在欧盟可再生能源"20-20-20"发展目标的基础上,欧盟各成员国相继制定了具有法律效力的国家可再生能源行动方案,规定了各国在不同时期的可再生能源的发展目标和实现路径。     

Methodological proposal for territorial distribution of the percentage reduction in gross inland energy consumption according to the EU energy policy strategic goal

A 20% reduction in the consumption of energy is one of the main goals of the European Union’s (EU) 20/20/20 Energy Strategy. But the uniform application of this overall goal to all of the countries is neither fair nor equitable, as it does not take into consideration the characteristics of the energy system in each Member State. This article therefore proposes a nonlinear distribution methodology with objective, dynamic goals for reducing gross inland energy consumption, according to the context and characteristics of each member state. We hope it will open discussion on how these overall goals can be weighted. Then we analyse the situation of the energy indicators related to energy efficiency in the reference year (2005) used by the EU for reaching its goal of reducing the gross inland consumption by 20% by 2020, and its progress from 1996 to 2007. Finally, the methodology proposed is applied to the year 2020 on the NUTS0 territorial level, that is, to members of the EU, according to the EUROSTAT Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS). Weighting is done based on energy intensity, per capita gross inland consumption and per capita energy intensity in two scenarios, the EU-15 and EU-27.     

Methodology proposal for territorial distribution of greenhouse gas reduction percentages in the EU according to the strategic energy policy goal

A 20% reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2020 is one of the main objectives of the European Union (EU) energy policy. However, this overall objective does not specify how it should be distributed among the Member States, according to each one’s particular characteristics. Consequently, in this article a non-linear distribution methodology with dynamic objective targets for reducing GHG emissions is proposed. The goal of this methodology is to promote debate over the weighting of these overall objectives, according to the context and characteristics of each member state. First, an analysis is conducted of the situation of greenhouse gas emissions in the reference year (1990) used by the EU for reaching its goal of reducing them by 20% by 2020, and its progress from 1990 to 2007. Then, the methodology proposed was applied for the year 2020 on two territorial aggregation levels following the EUROSTAT Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS), in the EU-15 and EU-27 member countries and on a regional level in 19 Spanish Autonomous Communities and Cities (NUTS-2). Weighting is done based on CO₂ intensity, GHG emissions per capita and GHG emissions per GDP. Finally, several recommendations are provided for the formulation of energy policies.     

欧盟的可再生能源促进政策对我们的启示

在环境问题的严峻挑战下,欧盟将可再生能源发展确立为关键的能源战略之一。欧盟在坚持固定电价制的同时确立可再生能源发电总量目标,在推进电力市场化改革的基础上强化对可再生电力的支持,并通过建立有效的化石燃料财税制度为可再生能源发展提供更广阔的空间。     

A methodology for validating the renewable energy data in EU

The multidimensional character of renewable energy sources (RES) necessitates the collection of a number of related data in order to support EU policy needs. Apart from the technology and techno-physical data also socioeconomic (e.g. employment, turnover) data and R&D expenditures are of critical relevance. The monitoring of the above RES data with respect to the existing targets for RES is of significant importance. In addition to this, even though significant data gathering efforts have been implemented, a lot of fragmented data and deduced findings are currently available, which sometimes lack consistency and verification. As a result, RES data validation and completion capacity is needed in the framework of the European Union (EU) energy policy. In addition to this, agreed and validated RES data can help energy policy makers and relevant stakeholders answering to pressing energy socio-economics’ and sustainability issues. In this context, the main aim of the paper is to present a reference methodology for validating the RES Data in the EU. The development of the methodology is mainly based on the review of existing methods and ends up with recommendations for improvements in RES data aggregation and statistical interpretation, taking into consideration the related analysis of statisticians, energy technology experts and energy socio-economists.     

世界可再生能源发展概况和我国发展目标

本文从可持续发展战略高度 ,观察世界可再生能源发展趋势和我国发展目标 ,加深对可再生能源发展意义的认识     

Supply of renewable energy sources and the cost of EU climate policy

What are the excess costs of a separate 20% target for renewable energy as a part of the EU climate policy for 2020? We answer this question using a computable general equilibrium model, WorldScan, which has been extended with a bottom-up module of the electricity sector. The model set-up makes it possible to base the calibration directly on available estimates of costs and capacity potentials for renewable energy sources. In our base case simulation, the costs of EU climate policy with the renewables target are 6% higher than those of a policy without this target. The uncertainty in this estimate is considerable, however, and depends on our assumptions about the availability of low-cost renewable energy: the initial cost level, the steepness of the supply curves and share of renewable energy in the baseline. Within the range we explore, the excess costs vary from zero (when the target is not a binding constraint) to 32% (when the cost progression and the initial cost disadvantage for renewable energy are high and its initial share is low).     

Analysis of the EU renewable energy directive by a techno-economic optimisation model

The EU renewable energy (RES) directive sets a target of increasing the share of renewable energy used in the EU to 20% by 2020. The Norwegian goal for the share of renewable energy in 2020 is 67.5%, an increase from 60.1% in 2005. The Norwegian power production is almost solely based on renewable resources and the possibility to change from fossil power plants to renewable power production is almost non-existing. Therefore other measures have to be taken to fulfil the RES directive. Possible ways for Norway to reach its target for 2020 are analysed with a technology-rich, bottom-up energy system model (TIMES-Norway). This new model is developed with a high time resolution among others to be able to analyse intermittent power production. Model results indicate that the RES target can be achieved with a diversity of options including investments in hydropower, wind power, high-voltage power lines for export, various heat pump technologies, energy efficiency measures and increased use of biodiesel in the transportation sector. Hence, it is optimal to invest in a portfolio of technology choices in order to satisfy the RES directive, and not one single technology in one energy sector.     

EU renewable energy support policy: Faith or facts?

The recent EU Commission proposal for promoting the supply of power from renewable energy sources was originally based on a pan-European, harmonised tradable green certificate (TGC) scheme. We suggest, on the basis of a multi-disciplinary analysis, that a pan-EU TGC system is not the way forward for Europe. It is vital that the Commission (and the majority of Member States) avoids implementation of such policy designs put forward by a coalition of vested interests. They should instead look at, and act upon, the available evidence from those countries that have experimented with TGCs (e.g. Flanders, UK and Sweden) and design policies that stand a better chance of meeting the criteria of effectiveness, efficiency and equity. In particular, the policies must enable EU to meet the immense innovation/industrialisation challenge by inducing the development of a capital goods industry that can, eventually, diffuse a broad range of technologies that use renewable energy sources. Only then we can acquire an ability to implement an industrial revolution in the energy system in a way that broadly meets the criteria of effectiveness and dynamic efficiency.     

Evidence from RD&D spending for renewable energy sources in the EU

This paper aims at giving a critical picture of the expenditures in research, development and demonstration (RD&D) for renewable energy sources (RES) in the EU-15 Member States. By providing this objective a number of performance indicators are proposed, evaluated and discussed. RD&D performance is measured in terms of RD&D intensity, e.g. spending per unit of GDP, as well as with regard to RD&D output such as the number of patents in the different sectors of technology.The evaluation of the funds spent can help the rationalisation of the efforts made to support renewable energy RD&D and facilitate the joint investments in RD&D activities. This perspective is essential for facing the increasing competition that the EU industry meets in the international markets for RES. The knowledge and rationalisation of the RD&D spending in research activities is the starting point for a common approach to strengthen the EU industry in this field of expected strong growth.     

Potential renewable energy resources of the Lerma Valley,Salta, Argentina for its strategic territorial planning

Renewable energy sources are considered as strategic opportunities to improve the population’s quality of life, to promote the development of more efficient and equitable economic systems, and to favor environmental sustainability in the territorial planning of Lerma Valley (Salta, Argentina). The mapping in raster format (each pixel having a reference value) of the potential renewable energy sources (solar, wind, biomass, hydraulic, mixed) is essential to define ideal locations for different types of renewable applications, and to plan suitable strategies for its implementation. It is necessary considering environmental diversity and site conditions (topographic, natural resource, infrastructure and service availability, social and economical) of the intervention area.Different methodologies are used for mapping of potential energy resources. Solar radiation is spatialized through the application of statistical regressions between altitude, latitude, precise incident solar radiation records, and radiation data estimated with the Geosol V.2.0.? software. The Argentina Map program is used for the wind potential resource modeling. It requires as inputs: a Digital Elevation Model, a land use and cover map (to determine roughness), and measured and/or estimated wind speed and frequency data. The hydroelectric potential for microturbine applications is calculated from the topographic drop and the annual mean flow in cumulative models, through the application of the Idrisi Kilimanjaro?’s runoff tool; while the power densities are compared at the watershed. Biomass potential (at this exploratory stage), is interpreted from the available biomass type (land use and cover map), its energy application availability, and some quantitative indicators associated with the biomass types identified as priority.In conclusion, the renewable energy potential in Lerma Valley is very high and diverse, and its close connection with social–environmental conditions is basic for the creation of energy resource-related territorial plans.     

A post-2020 EU energy technology policy: Revisiting the strategic energy technology plan

With the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET Plan) expiring in 2020, the EU needs to revisit its energy technology policy for the post-2020 horizon and to establish a policy framework that fosters the achievement of ambitious EU commitments for decarbonization by 2050. We discuss options for a post-2020 EU energy technology policy, taking account of uncertain technology developments, uncertain carbon prices and the highly competitive global market for energy technologies. We propose a revised SET Plan that enables policy makers to be pro-active in pushing innovation in promising technologies, no matter what policy context will be realized in the future. In particular, a revised SET Plan should include a more technology-specific focus, provide the basis for planning and prioritization among decarbonization technologies, and should be based on a comprehensive approach across sectors. Selected technology targets and EU funding of innovation should be in line with the SET Plan prioritization.     

A new energy future for South Africa: The political ecology of South African renewable energy

Renewable energy remains a contested topic in South Africa. This paper argues that South Africa can build on the momentum surrounding its introduction of a feed-in tariff by enacting policies that may, if given adequate funding and political effort, allow the country to be a world leader in renewable energy. Given a variety of renewable energy policy options for moving forward, a majority of stakeholders consulted in this study strongly prefer the development of a renewable energy manufacturing cluster, in which government develops coordinated policy mechanisms that attract renewable energy manufacturers, over three other policies suggested by the authors. Interviews with key informants that play critical roles in this decision-making process suggest that there are reasons to remain cautiously optimistic about the country's renewable energy future while cognizant of the challenges that must still be overcome. Opportunities for a low carbon renewable energy transition in South Africa include the prevalence of broad stakeholder consultation, facilitated by civil society, and an innovative policy development context. Significant impediments also exist, however, and include pervasive social issues such as poverty and political inertia, along with the ongoing difficulties facing renewable energy technologies in reaching grid parity with inexpensive and abundant South African coal.     

Impact of the regulatory framework for transmission investments on the cost of renewable energy in the EU

Under the current regulatory frame in the EU, transmission planning is done at the national level to maximize national welfare, rather than European welfare. In this paper, we develop a competitive equilibrium model that calculates the impact of this imperfect regulatory framework on the cost of renewable energy. We apply the model to a power system with two interconnected zones, and find that the impact is case specific, but significant. We also find that the negative impact of national transmission planning on the cost of renewable energy is more significant in a state of the world in which Member States trade renewable energy, but that this negative effect is much smaller than the positive effect of renewable energy trade between Member States. We conclude that the imperfect regulatory framework for transmission investment is a significant cost for renewable energy in the EU, but that it should not stop Member States from trading renewable energy.     

Spanish energy roadmap to 2020: Socioeconomic implications of renewable targets

The European Union has established challenging targets for the share of renewable energies to be achieved by 2020; for Spain, 20% of the final energy consumption must be from renewable sources at such time. The aim of this paper is the analysis of the consequences for the electricity sector (in terms of excess cost of electricity, investment requirements, land occupation, CO₂ emissions and overcapacity of conventional power) of several possibilities to comply with the desired targets. Scenarios are created from different hypotheses for energy demand, biofuel share in final energy in transport, contribution of renewables for heating and cooling, renewable electricity generation (generation mix, deployment rate, learning curves, land availability) and conventional power generation (lifetime of current installations, committed deployment, fossil fuel costs and CO₂ emissions cost). A key input in the estimations presented is the technical potential and the cost of electricity from renewable sources, which have been estimated in previous, detailed studies by the present authors using a methodology based on a GIS (Geographical Information System) and high resolution meteorological data. Depending on the scenario, the attainment of the targets will lead to an increase in the cost of electricity from 19% to 37% with respect to 2007.     

Proposal for a combined methodology for renewable energy planning. Application to a Spanish region

The article here presented aims to contribute to renewable energies development at regional level, proposing a methodology for the establishment of strategies needed to reach, in the long term, an energy system more sustainable and mainly based upon autochthonous resources.Current energy planning models are investigated, analysing its convenience to design a sustainable energy system, and a new methodology, that combines three different approaches, is proposed. Such new “hybrid” methodology resumes advantages of territorial strategic planning methods, based upon SWOT analysis, along with characteristics extracted both from Multicriteria decision analysis techniques and expert opinion “Delphi” methods.Nowadays, decisions concerning energy system cannot be consider under one specific criterion. Different implications, energetic, environmental or socioeconomic, derived from changes on energy development make it unavoidable to use tools and techniques that could take into account such multiplicity. It has been also intended to take advantage of the know-how acquired along the territorial strategic planning process carried out in the region to analyse, from year 1997 to 2000. This approach has allowed to integrate, under a unique methodology, tools from energy planning with those one used, and successfully tested, for the elaboration of the strategic plan for Jaén Province.The proposed methodology has been applied to Jaén Province in order to design a renewable energy plan for the region, setting strategic action lines and fixing strategic goals to be met on year 2010 by the provincial energy system. The objective regarding electricity production from renewable resources, on year 2010, is fixed above 1630 GWh, which represents a 43% of the total foreseeable electricity consumption. Overall contribution of renewable sources in provincial energy system is finally set to 28.3%, in terms of final energy.     

The impact of political connections on the efficiency of China's renewable energy firms

This study investigates the impact of political connections on firm efficiency as well as its mechanisms in Chinese renewable energy firms. The empirical results reveal a direct negative association between political connections and firm efficiency and an indirect correlation through political resources. The results indicate that the higher the level of political connections, the stronger the relationship between political connections and firm efficiency. Our findings also indicate that the impact of political connections is different between state-owned and non-state-owned firms. For state-owned firms, political connections are negatively correlated with firm efficiency and government subsidies are not beneficial for state-owned firms in promoting productivity. As for non-state-owned firms, there is a ‘double-edged sword’ effect of political connections on firm efficiency. On the one hand, political connections are associated with lower firm efficiency, but on the other hand, political connections can alleviate the adverse effects of financing constraints on non-state-owned firms.     

Three options to calculate the percentage renewable energy: An example for a EU policy debate

The European Commission proposed a renewable energy directive with binding targets for the percentage renewable energy, usually calculated with the primary energy method. This method has the disadvantage that for hydro and wind electricity production is counted, whereas for thermal electricity the higher input to power plants is counted. Therefore, the Commission looked for an alternative: the final energy method. Also this method has disadvantages. Firstly, electricity consumption is weighed equally to fuel consumption for heat and transport, neglecting higher primary energy demand for electricity. Secondly, non-energy consumption of energy commodities is neglected, artificially raising the percentage renewable energy. Therefore, I introduce a simple substitution method, which measures renewable energy by comparison with hypothetical equivalent conventional energy. Calculations for EU-27 show that the method strongly affects the contributions of different sectors (electricity, heat and transport), sources and countries. Concluding, any credible calculation method should reflect the trade off between conventional and renewable primary energy. A simple substitution method fulfills this condition, contrary to the primary and final energy method. Using these biased methods may result in policies that are inefficient in terms of saving conventional fuels and avoiding CO₂ emissions, the main underlying goals of the proposed directive.