Model for Quantifying the Impact of Change Orders on Project Cost for U.S. Roadwork Construction

Change orders are very common in almost every construction project nowadays, often resulting in increases of 5–10% in the contract price. Understanding the consequences of such trends, several studies have attempted to quantify the impact of change orders on the project cost. Most of the studies aimed at the quantification of the change orders were sponsored by contractors’ organizations, where statistical models used to quantify the impact of the change orders on the project cost were based on data supplied by the contractors; a situation that can lead to owner-contractor disagreements related to the quantification method used. In addition, most of the studies tackled commercial and electromechanical work, and very rare studies tackled the field of heavy construction; a field that suffers from change orders because of errors and omissions, scope of work changes, or changes because of unforeseen conditions. This study addresses the need for a statistical model to quantify the increase of the contract price due to change orders in heavy construction projects in Florida. The model is based on data collected from 16 Florida DOT projects with contract values that ranged between $10–$25 million, and that encountered an increase in the contract price from 0.01 to 15%. Eleven variables were analyzed to test their impact on the cost of the change orders. The study concluded that most significant variables that impact the value of the change order, which are (1) the timing of the change order and (2) when the reason for issuing the change order is unforeseen conditions. Two regression models are developed and validated as follows: (1) a model to quantify the percentage increase in the contract price due to the change orders that increase the contract price from 0.01 to 5% and (2) a model to quantify the percentage increase in the contract price due to the change orders that increase the contract price from 5 to 15%. Those models will provide the owner with a retrospective or forward pricing of the change orders, and hence, allow the owner to estimate and utilize contingency amounts.     

Cost Analysis between SABER and Design Bid Build Contracting Methods

The majority of Air Force construction is performed by two main contractual methods, design bid build (DBB) and simplified acquisition of base engineering requirements (SABER). DBB is the traditional contracting method in which each project is competitively bid. SABER uses one contractor to complete multiple projects using unit prices established in the original contract. This research performs a cost analysis between DBB and SABER construction projects. The research involved finding appropriate, comparable projects completed by the two contractual methods. Two diverse Air Force bases were used to gather project information, and a total of 46 interior renovation projects were used. Project comparability was demonstrated by evaluating the similarity of type and scope of work. Data from the projects was used to calculate unit cost per dimensional characteristic and time and cost growth for each project. The results indicated SABER contracting had a lower cost per square meter, although not at a statistical level of significance. SABER performed better in time growth. Cost growth was similar for both methods.     

Rethinking how family researchers model infrequent outcomes: A tutorial on count regression and zero-inflated models.

Marital and family researchers often study infrequent behaviors. These powerful psychological variables, such as abuse, criticism, and drug use, have important ramifications for families and society as well as for the statistical models used to study them. Most researchers continue to rely on ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression for these types of data, but estimates and inferences from OLS regression can be seriously biased for count data such as these. This article presents a tutorial on statistical methods for positively skewed event data, including Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. These statistical methods are introduced through a marital commitment example, and the data and computer code to run the example analyses in R, SAS, SPSS, and Mplus are included in the online supplemental material. Extensions and practical advice are given to assist researchers in using these tools with their data. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Sources of Changes in Design–Build Contracts for a Governmental Owner

In recent years, many U.S. federal, state, and local governments have been authorized to use the design–build method of project delivery instead of the traditional design–bid–build method. Recent studies have not been definitive on the cost advantage of design–build for governmental owners. There are fewer change orders in design–build due to design errors because the designer (architect/engineer) and contractor are one entity, but there are other causes of change orders. Some literature suggests that changes requested by the owner of the facility are greater with the design–build method. This research examines the causes for construction-phase changes in 14 design–build and 20 design–bid–build projects. Total changes, expressed as number per contract, cost per contract, or percentage of original contract, were significantly lower in design–build. Fewer design errors in design–build accounted for this advantage. The number of owner-requested changes was significantly greater in design–build. The cost of owner-requested changes, averaged over all the projects, was significantly less for design–bid–build. The differences in changes due to differing site conditions were not significant. The concept that there are more owner-requested changes in design–build projects is supported by this research.     

Quantitative Definition of Projects Impacted by Change Orders

Change, defined as any event that results in a modification of the original scope, execution time, or cost of work, is inevitable on most construction projects due to the uniqueness of each project and the limited resources of time and money available for planning. Change may occur on a project for a number of reasons, such as design errors, design changes, additions to the scope, or unknown conditions. For each change, contractors are entitled to an equitable adjustment to the base contract price and schedule for all productivity impacts associated with the change. Changes may or may not have an impact on labor productivity. Existing literature uses subjective evaluation to determine whether the project is impacted. Projects impacted by change cause the contractor to achieve a lower productivity level than planned. The focus of this paper is to quantify whether an electrical or mechanical project is impacted by a change order. Through statistical hypothesis testing, groups of factors that correlate with whether a project is impacted by change orders were identified and used to develop a quantitative definition of impact. Logistic regression techniques were used to develop models that predict the probability of a project being impacted. The results of this research show that percent change, type of trade, estimated and actual peak manpower, processing time of change, overtime, overmanning, and percent change related to design issues are the main factors contributing to the project impact.     

Amplitudes of the two-nucleon interaction at 579 MeV

There has been increasing emphasis in recent years on construction contract claims and disputes. This paper examines the frequency of occurrence of 427 separate construction claims which were experienced on 22 federally funded and administered construction projects. The data examined include various claim types, the frequency of their occurrence and the average cost of these claims. Also, various factors thought to influence the frequency of claims occurrence were investigated. This study indicates that the largest proportion of change orders and modifications originate with the owner of the project or with those responsible to the owner.     

Cumulative Effect of Project Changes for Electrical and Mechanical Construction

Change is inevitable on construction projects, primarily because of the uniqueness of each project and the limited resources of time and money that can be spent on planning, executing, and delivering the project. Change clauses, which authorize the owner to alter work performed by the contractor, are included in most construction contracts and provide a mechanism for equitable adjustment to the contract price and duration. Even so, owners and contractors do not always agree on the adjusted contract price or the time it will take to incorporate the change. What is needed is a method to quantify the impact that the adjustments required by the change will have on the changed and unchanged work. Owners and our legal system recognize that contractors have a right to an adjustment in contract price for owner changes, including the cost associated with materials, labor, lost profit, and increased overhead due to changes. However, the actions of a contractor can impact a project just as easily as those of an owner. A more complex issue is that of determining the cumulative impact that single or multiple change orders may have over the life of a project. This paper presents a method to quantify the cumulative impact on labor productivity for mechanical and electrical construction resulting from changes in the project. Statistical hypothesis testing and correlation analysis were made to identify factors that affect productivity loss resulting from change orders. A multiple regression model was developed to estimate the cumulative impact of change orders. The model includes six significant factors, namely: Percent change, change order processing time, overmanning, percentage of time the project manager spent on the project, percentage of the changes initiated by the owner, and whether the contractor tracks productivity or not. Sensitivity analysis was performed on the model to study the impact of one factor on the productivity loss (%delta). The model can be used proactively to determine the impacts that management decisions will have on the overall project productivity. They may also be used at the conclusion of the project as a dispute resolution tool. It should be noted that every project is unique, so these tools need to be applied with caution.     

Avoiding Change Orders in Public School Construction

Increased student enrollment and the current poor state of the educational infrastructure require the construction of more school buildings and the renovation of many of the existing ones. The large number and magnitude of change orders in these projects constitute an impediment to the rapid and economic delivery of these projects. A total of 6,585 change orders filed in a school district’s projects in the 5 1/2 year period from 1999 to 2004 were analyzed in five categories including owner-directed changes, code compliance issues, errors/omissions in contract documents, discovered or changed conditions, and others. The results of the study indicate that the dollar value of change orders relative to the original contract can be reduced if preventive measures are taken. These measures include choosing the right construction management firm, emphasizing the definition of project scope early in the project, and effectively managing the precontract activities by conducting value engineering and constructability reviews. The results indicate that school projects can be completed with change orders not exceeding 5% of the contract value if these measures are taken. This study is of relevance to practitioners involved in school design and construction projects.     

Risk Allocation by Law—Cumulative Impact of Change Orders

Change, defined as any event that results in a modification of the original scope, execution time, or cost of work, is inevitable on most construction projects due to the uniqueness of each project and the limited resources of time and money available for planning. There are many factors that may cause a change such as design errors, design changes, additions to the scope, or unknown conditions in the field. For each change, contractors are entitled to an equitable adjustment to the base contract price and schedule for all productivity impacts associated with the change. The focus of this paper is to outline the types of changes that can occur on a construction project and also to spell out the financial recovery possibilities that exist for the contractor for each type of change. There are many historical and current court decisions that shape the outcomes of such claims and determine who holds the risks associated with various project changes. Also, an effective cumulative impact claim contains certain vital elements upon which the final outcome will be determined by the legal system. Last, there are certain actions that a contractor and owner can do to either enhance or mitigate the effectiveness of a potential cumulative impact claim.     

Three-Stage Least-Squares Analysis of Time and Cost Overruns in Construction Contracts

Construction cost overrun and time overrun (delay) are a significant problem in highway-construction project delivery. Previous research studies have provided insight into the factors that affect overruns; however the findings may have been limited because they do not explicitly consider the simultaneous relationship between cost and time overruns. In this paper, we use data from Indiana highway projects to provide empirical evidence that a simultaneous relationship exists between cost and time overruns and that analysis of these two contractual outputs need to take due cognizance of such simultaneity. Using the three-stage least-squares technique, we identify a number of factors that significantly affect cost overrun and time overrun and we show how the effect of these variables vary by attributes such as project type and results of the bidding process. The models developed in this paper can help agencies enhance the estimation of the expected overruns of final cost and the delay in completion time for their planned projects.     

Probabilistic Model for Cost Contingency

This paper proposes a probabilistic model for the calculation of project cost contingency by considering the expected number of changes and the average cost of change. The model assumes a Poisson arrival pattern for change orders and independent random variables for various change orders. The probability of cost overrun for a given contingency level is calculated. Typical input values to the model are estimated by reviewing several U.S. Army Corps of Engineers project logs, and numerical values of contingency are calculated and presented. The effect of various parameters on the contingency is discussed in detail.     

Causes, Effects, Benefits, and Remedies of Change Orders on Public Construction Projects in Oman

Change orders are usually issued to cover variations in scope of work, material quantities, design errors, and unit rate changes. This paper discusses variations in public construction projects in Oman by investigating causes of variations, studying their effects on the project, identifying the beneficial parties, and suggesting remedies to alleviate related problems. Tasks included an analysis of four actual case studies and conducting a field survey via a questionnaire. It was determined that the client’s additional works and modifications to design were the most important factors causing change orders, followed by the nonavailability of construction manuals and procedures. The most important effects of change orders on the project were found to be the schedule delays, disputes, and cost overruns. The contractor was found to be the party most benefiting from the change orders followed by the consultant and then the client. A set of remedial actions were suggested and respondents viewed that the revision of registration of consulting offices would be the most important action followed by establishing standard documents for design procedures and building a national database about soil conditions and services.     

Impact of Change Orders on Labor Efficiency for Electrical Construction

Change orders are a source of many disputes in today's construction industry. The issue at hand is whether or not the execution of change orders work has a negative impact on overall labor efficiency on a construction project. Previous literature demonstrates evidence that change orders affect labor efficiency. Attempts have been made to quantify these impacts by many researchers, with limited success. Using the electrical construction industry, a research study has been conducted to quantify the impacts of change orders on labor efficiency. In this paper, results of hypothesis testing and regression analysis are presented. A linear regression model that estimates the loss of efficiency, based on a number of independent variables, is also presented. The independent variables used in this model are (1) qualitative and quantitative criteria used to determine whether projects are impacted by changes or not; (2) the estimate of change order hours for the project as a percentage of the original estimate of work hours; (3) the estimate of change order hours for the project; and (4) the total number of years that the project manager had worked in the construction industry. Additional projects were used to validate the model, with an average error rate of 5%. The results of this research study are useful for owners, construction managers, general contractors, and electrical specialty contractors, because they provide a means to estimate the impact of a change order under certain project conditions. This research also identifies factors, which, when understood and effectively managed, may be used to mitigate the impact of a change order on project costs and efficiency.     

Causes of Delay in Building Construction Projects in Egypt

Delay in construction projects is considered one of the most common problems causing a multitude of negative effects on the project and its participating parties. This paper aims to identify the main causes of delay in construction projects in Egypt from the point of view of contractors, consultants, and owners. A literature review was conducted to compile a list of delay causes that was purged based on appropriateness to Egypt in seven semistructured interviews. The resulting list of delay causes was subjected to a questionnaire survey for quantitative confirmation and identification of the most important causes of delay. The overall results indicated that the most important causes are: financing by contractor during construction, delays in contractor’s payment by owner, design changes by owner or his agent during construction, partial payments during construction, and nonutilization of professional construction/contractual management. The contractor and owner were found to have opposing views, mostly blaming one another for delays, while the consultant was seen as having a more intermediate view. Results’ analyses suggest that in order to significantly reduce delay a joint effort based on teamwork is required. Furthermore, causes of project delay were discussed based on the type and size of the project.     

Impact of Change Orders on Small Labor-Intensive Projects

In today’s construction, small projects can be just as important if not more important than the larger projects. However, small projects are usually fast track projects, which often involve overlapping design and construction time. Subsequent modifications may be required for the sections that are already under construction. These disruptions to the ongoing project are labeled as change orders. The impact due to changes has been described as the adverse effect upon the unchanged work due to changes in the contract. For this study, 34 projects were selected to develop a statistical model that estimates the amount of labor efficiency lost due to change orders for small projects. The variables in the final model are percent design related changes, percent owner initiated changes, the ratio of actual peak labor to estimated peak labor, the ratio of actual project duration to estimated project duration, and project manager’s percent time on the project. The results of this paper are of value to owners, electrical and mechanical contractors, and construction managers. The model quantifies the impact of change orders by introducing the most important variables that bring the largest disruptions.     

Rework in Civil Infrastructure Projects: Determination of Cost Predictors

Within Australia, civil engineering works continue to meet the insatiable demand for new infrastructure despite project complexity and cost and schedule overruns. A significant factor that can contribute to such overruns is rework; yet to date research into the root causes and consequential costs of rework in civil infrastructure projects has been limited. Using a questionnaire survey, rework costs and probable causes were obtained from 115 civil infrastructure projects. Stepwise multiple regression was then used to determine the significant variables that contributed to rework. The regression model revealed that the following five significant predictors accounted for 25% of the variance in total rework cost: (1) ineffective use of information technologies; (2) excessive client involvement in the project; (3) lack of clearly defined working procedures; (4) changes made at the request of the client; and (5) insufficient changes initiated by the contractor to improve quality. The findings also revealed that mean total rework costs were 10% of the contract value for the sample. Interestingly, the extent of rework experienced was significantly correlated with project cost and schedule growth (p<0.01). It is suggested that future work is required to determine the underlying factors that contribute to rework in civil infrastructure projects before effective preventive strategies can be identified.     

Effects of Delivery Systems on Change Order Size and Frequency in Mechanical Construction

Change orders represent one of the largest sources of cost growth on building construction projects. Field generated, or “unforeseen” change orders can also be highly disruptive to field productivity. Design-build delivery methods can potentially help minimize change orders on construction projects. This study was performed to closely examine the effects of delivery methods on the frequency and magnitude of change orders in mechanical construction, and how design-build business practices can be used to minimize the frequency of field generated chance orders. In a study of 598 change orders occurring on 120 construction projects performed by the same contractor, the total number of change orders was found to be close to the same on design-build and design-bid-build projects, however an 87% decrease in the average number of unforeseen change orders was observed on design-build projects versus design-bid-build projects. In addition, the average size of unforeseen change orders was 86% smaller on design-build projects. A detailed and qualified presentation of the research methodology and resulting data is provided. Key attributes and business practices leading to the results are discussed and practical applications of this research for owners and contractors are provided.     

Nature of Engineering Consulting Projects

Engineering consulting firms usually collect data such as cost and man-hour expenditures. Although these data help analyze project profit and productivity, they lack the information on the project nature to examine work and analyze the root causes of performance. This study investigates the nature of engineering consulting projects in terms of uncertainty and equivocality (U&E). A questionnaire was designed to collect project U&E data from 108 project managers. The U&E scores were analyzed, further linked to and tested on a consulting firm’s profit, productivity, project type, phase, duration, and owner data. It is found that project nature does not affect profit or productivity; engineering design work needs more data acquisition and analysis than problem definition and interpretation. Other results show insightful patterns about engineering projects that can be useful references to the engineering services industry.     

Finding the Optimal Contractual Arrangement for Projects on Process Job Sites

This paper describes how, after trying a variety of contract strategies over a 3-year period, an alliance contract developed between a client and key electrical and mechanical contractors for project work. It explains why the benefits, in terms of time and cost, are not always quantifiable, even though teamwork benefits and close collaboration are apparent. It illustrates, through a number of case studies, the benefits that closer collaboration between clients and key contractors can engender and argues that such benefits will, in the long term, bring about real time and cost savings. The paper briefly describes the types of contract strategies available for this type of work and how these strategies developed over a period of time. The paper provides conclusions regarding the most appropriate contract strategy for the procurement of project work on the site and recommendations regarding actions that need to be taken by the client to ensure optimum efficiency in the future.