加权平均法解决证据理论中的失效问题

D-S证据理论是一种重要的处理不确定性问题的方法。但是,证据合成规则在处理冲突证据时产生的失效问题,影响了证据理论的应用。针对证据失效问题,国内外的各种改进方法主要分为对融合公式的改进和对融合模型的改进两个方向。本文在Murphy规则和邓勇方法的基础上提出了一种新的对证据本身进行加权平均,然后融合的方法来解决冲突问题。     

一种基于修改模型的冲突证据组合方法

为解决Dempster-Shafer证据理论在对高度冲突的证据进行融合时可能导致与直观结果相悖的问题,本文提出一种有效处理冲突证据的融合方法。通过引入距离函数,确定证据之间的相互支持度,进而确定证据的权值。采用平均证据代替冲突证据,通过证据的权值修改证据源模型,然后基于Dempster组合规则进行证据组合,以减少冲突证据在组合规则中的作用能力,有效降低干扰对最终融合结果的影响,充分利用了原始证据信息,使得组合结果收敛到正确的目标的效率比较高。     

一种迭代修正的冲突证据改进方法

针对多传感器数据融合领域中使用D-S组合规则无法有效融合传感器不确定证据信息的问题,提出一种迭代修正的冲突证据改进方法。该方法通过计算证据之间的相互支持度和证据之间的相似度,综合度量每个证据的修正参数。利用修正参数修正证据,并通过D-S组合规则融合。然后,以融合结果作为参考证据,重新度量每一个原始证据的修正参数,修正原始证据再融合。通过多次迭代修正融合,直至最后两次的融合结果收敛为止,最后通过两组冲突证据验证了该方法具有很好的融合效果。     

基于高冲突修正的D-S证据融合方法

对冲突证据使用D-S证据理论进行融合前,应确定证据之间冲突的程度。为此,基于信任度和虚假度对冲突进行衡量与修正。计算证据的信任度和虚假度,分别对其进行排序,将具有较小信任度和较大虚假度的证据判定为高冲突证据并加权修正,再使用Dempster组合规则进行证据融合。实验结果表明,该方法可以正确判断高冲突证据,避免融合结果与事实相悖的情况,同时提高收敛的速度和精度。     

基于冲突强度和非正则化的证据合成方法研究

证据推理广泛应用于不确定推理和数据融合等许多方面,但D-S合成规则对于高冲突证据的处理不是十分合理的。论文在分析D-S合成规则以及一些改进方法的基础上,提出了一种基于冲突强度和非正则化的冲突证据合成规则,并引入确定度的概念来衡量合成的效果。仿真实验结果表明,该规则比D-S合成规则有了明显的改进。     

Conflict resolution in group decision making: insights from a simulation study

User Modeling and User-Adapted Interaction - An individual’s conflict resolution styles can have a large impact on the decision making process of a group. This impact is affected by a variety...     

Estimating the demographic dividend: Evidence from Indian states

Using decadal data for 1961–2011, the paper explores the demographic dividend of major Indian states. Accordingly, we first explore Zipf’s law and thereafter, examine Gibrat’s law for the growth of state population. Based on these findings, we investigate the demographic dividend of state population. The results appear to suggest that the demographic dividend varies across states and these “dividends” are in fact, large in magnitude, especially for the laggard states.     

Playing Detective: Reconstructing Software Architecture from Available Evidence

Because a system's software architecture strongly influences its quality attributes such as modifiability, performance, and security, it is important to analyze and reason about that architecture. However, architectural documentation frequently does not exist, and when it does, it is often out of sync with the implemented system. In addition, it is rare that software development begins with a clean slate; systems are almost always constrained by existing legacy code. As a consequence, we need to be able to extract information from existing system implementations and utilize this information for architectural reasoning. This paper presents Dali, an open, lightweight workbench that aids an analyst in extracting, manipulating, and interpreting architectural information. By assisting in the reconstruction of architectures from extracted information, Dali helps an analyst redocument architectures, discover the relationship between as-implemented and as-designed architectures, analyze architectural quality attributes and plan for architectural change.     

Regional ICT access and entrepreneurship: Evidence from China

Entrepreneurship has become increasingly important for innovations and economic development. However, there is limited information systems research examining the role of regional ICT for entrepreneurs. This study investigates the direct effect of regional ICT access on individuals’ entrepreneurial performance and the interaction effect between regional ICT access and guanxi in the context of Chinese business and economy. Drawing upon a matched large-scale dataset, we found that regional ICT access in terms of access to the Internet, fixed phone, and mobile phone had a significant impact on performance. Furthermore, regional ICT access had a positive interaction effect with guanxi.     

The Mona Lisa identification: Evidence from a computer analysis

A recent computer-aided study identified the model immortalized in Leonardo da Vinci's celebratedMona Lisa to be none other than the artist himself. A follow-up investigation empolying similar techniques identifies the subject of asecond HiddenMona Lisa by the same artist. Analysis of photographic and x-ray images indicates that Leonardo first created a sketch of Isabella, Duchess of Aragon, which he later painted over with theMona Lisa, using himself as the model.     

Regulations and Audit Opinions: Evidence from EU Banking Institutions

In this study, we empirically investigate the relationship between financial and auditing requirements, capital requirements, official supervisory power, and the likelihood of receiving a qualified audit opinion. The sample consists of 71 qualified financial statements and 17,526 unqualified ones, from 3,642 banking institutions operating in 15 old and new EU countries over the period 1999–2006. The results indicate that financial and auditing requirements have a negative influence, while supervisory power has a positive impact, on the likelihood of qualified audit opinions. Concerning capital requirements, we find that only initial stringency has an impact on audit opinions.     

Control and Cross-Domain Mental Computation: Evidence from Language Breakdown

This paper uses the notion of control from programming languages to look at the organization of mental code. Data for the analysis comes principally from language breakdown. The paper first outlines the well known distinction between logic and control in algorithms and argues that the same distinction holds in mental code. Discussion then focuses mainly on control—the management of data flow—and shows that a variety of language disorders affect either the logic component of the mental algorithms for language (e.g., Specific Language Impairment) or the control component (e.g., Williams syndrome and Turner syndrome). A comparative study of the loss of morphology in Williams syndrome and Specific Language Impairment reinforces the logic/control split as an accurate guide to the explanation of linguistic behavior in these disorders. The data, moreover, are not accountable to sheer performance factors, but to the way the disorders disrupt the structure of mental algorithms. The paper closes with a discussion of how control and the management of cross-domain computation fit into recent theories of modular mental architecture and proposals about the explicitness of representations and their availability to working memory.     

Conflict and consensus: the role of standards

Sometime in the future, we will all look back at January 1998 and laugh about the current conflicts in the technology industry. A hindsight perspective inevitably generates a few chuckles, but it also allows us to recognize that conflict is essential to innovation. Conflict energizes the entire process. If there were no conflict (over market shares, protocols, pricing structures, formats, programming languages, platforms or standards), innovation would almost certainly stagnate. While conflict ensures that technology will continue to change and grow stronger, it also ensures a certain forced honesty. As one organization “invades” the turf of another-especially when it comes to standards activities-we get to see the cards held in the hands of the players. It usually takes a few years, however, before we're able to smile at all the poker faces     

Mediating debate through on-line large-scale argumentation: Evidence from the field

Web 2.0 technologies, such as forums and wikis, are enabling an explosion of global knowledge sharing through distributed large-scale conversations, but they seem to be less successful at supporting collaborative deliberation around complex and controversial questions. In order to cope with this limitation, many scholars have proposed to adopt on-line argumentation platforms to improve information visualization, organization and reuse. However, such research has mostly focused on the design of adequate argument-based knowledge formalisms. Less attention has been paid to the empirical analysis of actual interactions mediated by argumentation technology with reasonably large user communities. In this paper, we present an in-depth analysis of the data obtained in the empirical test of an argumentation platform where a 160-member community created, in 3 weeks, what is to our knowledge the largest single online argument map ever built (around 5000 posts). Our results show that (i) users were able to quickly and comprehensively explore and map the debate on the selected discussion topic; (ii) substantial moderation was needed to ensure that the argument map was well-organized and users were confident with the argumentation formalism; (iii) considerable out-of-the map communication occurred, possibly as a way to allow for conversational flows inhibited by the argumentation formalism, (iv) formal rating of contributions favored exploration of the map, understanding the debate structure, and improving the quality of content.     

Supervisory Control of Distributed Systems: Conflict Resolution

In distributed synthesis and control, one well-known potential hazard is conflict between modular designs. In a modular approach to the supervisory control of discrete-event systems, modular supervisors that are individually nonblocking (with respect to the plant) may nevertheless conflict and thus produce blocking, or even deadlock, when operating concurrently. A scheme of resolving this potential conflict between the modular supervisors would be to accord priorities to the conflicting supervisors. When conflict arises, the modular supervisor that is assigned a higher priority will have sole control, or in other words the control action of the lower priority supervisor will be suspended. Thus by assigning priority appropriately, control actions of the modular supervisors will be suspended and reactivated in such a way that the potential conflict can be averted. In this article we formalize this scheme with reporter maps from a hierarchical approach to the supervisory control of discrete-event systems. These maps, each acting as an interface between a modular supervisor and the plant, mediate the flow of information and control, and thus in this way achieve suspension and reactivation of the modular supervisors. Sufficient conditions on these reporter maps for conflict resolution are obtained. Roughly speaking, the conditions are that (1) the reporter maps select suitable subsystems of the plant; (2) within these subsystems, conflicts are resolved; (3) the reporter maps are refined enough to lift these local conflict resolutions back to the original plant. With these conditions, a constructive solution is developed, which in essence suspends a supervisor just in time to prevent conflict and reactivates it when the plant and the other supervisor return to the state they were in when the suspension began. Examples inspired by the feature interaction problem in telecommunication systems are provided for illustration.