Commentary: Climate change adaptive management in the Great Lakes

Climatologists have estimated how the increase of carbon dioxide emissions will affect the climate in the Great Lakes basin. Models show that at twice the pre-industrial carbon dioxide level, the climate of the basin will be warmer by 2–4 °C and slightly damper than at present. Experts predict that this could have serious implications for the ecosystems and economies of the region. Climate change poses new challenges to decision-makers as they work to restore and maintain biodiversity, create comprehensive strategies for conservation and evaluate future risk to these resources. Adaptive management has served as a tool to meet these challenges although implementation has been uneven. This commentary examines trends and projections for climate change in the Great Lakes, the adaptive management strategies and programs in place to address these changes and the challenges these programs face to address the impacts of changing climate patterns on our freshwater resources.     

System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran

The Zayandeh-Rud River basin, Iran, is projected to face spatiotemporally heterogeneous temperature increase and precipitation reduction that will decrease water supply by mid-century. With projected increase (0.70–1.03 °C) in spring temperature and reduction (6–55%) in winter precipitation, the upper Zayandeh-Rud sub-basin, the main source of renewable water supply, will likely become warmer and drier. In the lower sub-basin, 1.1–1.5 °C increase in temperature and 11–31% decrease in annual precipitation are likely. A system dynamics model was used to analyze adaptation strategies taking into account feedbacks between water resources development and biophysical and socioeconomic sub-systems. Results suggest that infrastructural improvements, rigorous water demand management (e.g., replacing high water demand crops such as rice, corn, and alfalfa), and ecosystem-based regulatory prioritization, complemented by supply augmentation can temporarily alleviate water stress in a basin that is essentially governed by the Limits to Growth archetype.     

Warmer and Drier Climates that Make Terminal Great Lakes

A recent empirical model of glacial-isostatic uplift showed that the Huron and Michigan lake level fell tens of meters below the lowest possible outlet about 7,900 ¹⁴C years BP when the upper Great Lakes became dependent for water supply on precipitation alone, as at present. The upper Great Lakes thus appear to have been impacted by severe dry climate that may have also affected the lower Great Lakes. While continuing paleoclimate studies are corroborating and quantifying this impacting climate and other evidence of terminal lakes, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory applied their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System, modified to use dynamic lake areas, to explore the deviations from present temperatures and precipitation that would force the Great Lakes to become terminal (closed), i.e., for water levels to fall below outlet sills. We modeled the present lakes with pre-development natural outlet and water flow conditions, but considered the upper and lower Great Lakes separately with no river connection, as in the early Holocene basin configuration. By using systematic shifts in precipitation, temperature, and humidity relative to the present base climate, we identified candidate climates that result in terminal lakes. The lakes would close in the order: Erie, Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Ontario for increasingly drier and warmer climates. For a temperature rise of T°C and a precipitation drop of P% relative to the present base climate, conditions for complete lake closure range from 4.7T + P > 51 for Erie to 3.5T + P > 71 for Ontario.     

Future water levels of the Great Lakes under 1.5 °C to 3 °C warmer climates

With the many different interests that are connected to the water levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes, the future of these water levels are of great concern to many people, businesses, and institutions. Projected future lake levels were calculated using data from the North American component of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment. The final lake level results are presented in relation to a 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3.0 °C change in global mean temperature. The results show that the range of possible values grows as the climate changes, with more extreme values for the lake levels becoming possible with greater changes in the global mean temperature. This increase in the range on both the high and low end may be a more important consideration than any general increase in the average water level for those living around the lakes Because the most severe impacts on the interests around the lake are usually associated with these extreme high or low levels. A greater understanding that the extremes in water levels observed in the past may be exceeded under a changing climate will help in the planning of future developments and activities within the Great Lakes basin with a forward looking coastal risk assessment and help communites build resilience to future extremes.     

Initial insights on the thermal ecology of lake whitefish in northwestern Lake Michigan

Lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis are a native coldwater species supporting important recreational and commercial fisheries in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Climate-related changes in water temperature may have important implications for the future sustainability of these fisheries. However, projecting future habitat availability is difficult because limited information is available on lake whitefish thermal ecology in the region. In this study, archival temperature loggers were implanted into 400 lake whitefish from northwestern Lake Michigan, including Green Bay, during October–November 2017. Loggers recorded temperature for 11 months at 4-hr intervals. Thirteen recovered temperature loggers were used in analyses. In winter (1 December–31 March), temperatures occupied by lake whitefish ranged from 0 to 8.0 °C, while in spring (1 April–31 May) temperatures ranged from 0 to 20.0 °C. In summer (1 June–15 September) and fall (16 September–7 November), lake whitefish occupied temperatures of 4–21.5 and 4–21.0 °C, respectively. Average temperatures in summer (10.8 °C) were within the previously proposed optimal temperature range (10–14 °C) and broad thermal niche (7–17 °C); however, 58% of observations were outside the optimal temperature range and 11% of observations were outside the broad thermal niche. Our results suggest that lake whitefish from northwestern Lake Michigan inhabit temperatures both above and below previously reported expected temperature ranges. This study provides initial insights on lake whitefish thermal ecology in Lake Michigan and can be used as a baseline for future work aimed at determining how lake whitefish habitat availability may change in the future.     

Temperature response in the physiology and growth of lake trout strains stocked in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Fish stocking programs designed for species rehabilitation aim to match the strains being stocked with the environments the fish will inhabit. The ability of different lake trout Salvelinus namaycush populations to adjust their physiological performance over a broad range of environmental conditions will be advantageous as water temperatures rise with climate warming. This study compares the adaptive physiological potential of 6 strains of lake trout stocked within the Laurentian Great Lakes by comparing growth, metabolic and cardiovascular performance, and organ-system tradeoffs across a temperature gradient. Using a common garden design, lake trout were raised from the embryonic stage until 2 years of age, when they were acclimated to temperatures of 8, 11, 15 and 19 °C before undergoing experiments to test their metabolic performance. For all strains, growth rates showed a dome-shaped response with temperature, peaking at 11 °C and reaching negative rates at 19 °C. For 5 of 6 strains, metabolic rates increased while in all strains cardiovascular performance declined with increasing temperature. Higher metabolic rates at higher temperatures generally came at the cost of slower growth, less investment into gastrointestinal mass, and reduced cardiovascular fitness and investment. Importantly, though, the Seneca strain was unique by showing a reduction of aerobic scope at the highest temperature, possibly indicating increased costs as temperature rises in this smaller-sized, potentially slower pace-of-life strain. However, the overall low interpopulation variability in our study suggests limited diversity in the physiological responses to temperature in strains stocked across the Great Lakes basin.     

Asian carp spawning success: Predictions from a 3-D hydrodynamic model for a Laurentian Great Lake tributary

Asian carps are threatening to establish in the Great Lakes basin and the examination of factors leading to spawning success is vital for preventive efforts. Hydrodynamic modelling can determine if successful hatching of carp eggs can occur in a tributary, by predicting egg movement during a spawning event to see if hatching can occur before eggs settle. A 3-D hydrodynamic model, coupled with a Lagrangian particle tracker, was used to assess hatching rates of three Asian carp species (bighead, grass, and silver carps) in different temperature and flow scenarios in the east Don River, a potential spawning tributary to Lake Ontario. In-river hatching rates were highest in scenarios with warmer summer water temperatures (23–25 °C) and flow magnitudes of 15–35 m³/s, which occur at least once every year. Using a 3-D hydrodynamic model allowed the inclusion of low-velocity zones where eggs become trapped in lower flow scenarios, thereby reducing modelled hatching success. In-river hatching rates were significantly reduced when the spawning location was moved close to the mouth of the river, with no modelled hatching if spawning occurred in the lower 8 km of the Don River, indicating that preventing Asian carp movement upstream would viably reduce the chances of successfully spawning occurring in this tributary. The magnitude of reduction in spawning success caused by limiting Asian carp passage upstream can guide preventative strategies and the method of using a 3-D hydrodynamic model as a predictive tool could be applied in similar tributaries across the Great Lakes basin.     

Impacts of the Great Lakes on Regional Climate Conditions

Estimates of lake-induced spatial changes of six climate variables (precipitation, mean minimum and mean maximum temperatures, cloud cover, vapor pressure, and wind speed) were derived for the entire Great Lakes basin. These patterns were estimated by a comparison of maps of each weather variable using: (1) all regional climate data, and (2) regional data when observations within an 80-km zone around the lakes were removed. Results generally confirm expectations and prior findings, but point to inadequacies in data collection that limit a highly precise analysis. Lake effects are most noticeable in precipitation and temperature and vary considerably by season, time of day, and lake size. Greatest lake influences are found near Lake Superior where up to 100% more precipitation falls downwind of the lake in winter compared to that expected without its presence. During summer, all lakes cause a downwind decrease in rainfall of 10% to 20%. Mean minimum temperatures in the basin are higher in all seasons and over all lakes. Lake-induced reductions in mean maximum temperatures in the region are observed during spring and summer. Effects on cloud cover are greatest during winter and show increases of approximately 25% in areas downwind of Lakes Superior and Michigan. Conversely, the cool summertime waters of Lakes Michigan and Huron reduce cloudiness roughly 10%. Variations in vapor pressure are consistent with observed changes in temperature. Amounts in winter are estimated to be 10% to 15% higher across the center of the basin, but decrease by roughly 5% to 10% at many lake shore sites in summer. Seasonal wind speed data were considered to lack an appropriate number of quality long-term climate stations to determine spatial lake effects. Surface elevations, increasing east of the basin, complicated detection of effects due solely to the lakes.     

Recent Climate Trends and Drought Behavioral Assessment Based on Precipitation and Temperature Data Series in the Songhua River Basin of China

Precise analysis of spatiotemporal trends of temperature, precipitation and meteorological droughts plays a key role in the sustainable management of water resources in the given region. This study first aims to detect the long-term climate (monthly/seasonally and annually) trends from the historical temperature and precipitation data series by applying Spearmen’s Rho and Mann-Kendall test at 5 % significant level. The measurements of both climate variables for a total period of 49 years (1965–2013) were collected from the 11 different meteorological stations located in the Songhua River basin of China. Secondly, the two well-known meteorological drought indices including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) were applied on normalize data to detect the drought hazards at 3, 6, 9 and 12 month time scale in the study area. The analysis of monthly precipitation showed significant (p < 0.05) increasing trends during the winter (November and December months) season. Similarly, the results of seasonal and annual air temperature showed a significant increase from 1 °C to 1.5 °C for the past 49 years in the basin. According to the Sen’s slope estimator, the rate of increment in seasonal temperature slope (0.26 °C/season) and precipitation (9.02 mm/season) were greater than annual air temperature (0.04 °C/year) and precipitation (1.36 mm/year). By comparing the results of SPI and RDI indices showed good performance at 9 (r = 0.96, p < 0.01) and 12 (r = 0.99, p < 0.01) month drought analysis. However, the yearly drought analysis at over all stations indicated that a 20 years were under dry conditions in entire study area during 49 years. We found the extreme dry and wet conditions in the study region were prevailing during the years of 2001 and 2007, and 1994 and 2013, respectively. Overall, the analysis and quantifications of this study provides a mechanism for the policy makers to mitigate the impact of extreme climate and drought conditions in order to improve local water resources management in the region.

     

Mixed General Extreme Value Distribution for Estimation of Future Precipitation Quantiles Using a Weighted Ensemble - Case Study of the Lim River Basin (Serbia)

Considering the recent extreme precipitation in southeast Europe, it has become necessity to investigate the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation. The aim of this study was to determine the change in precipitation quantiles with longer return periods under changing climate conditions. The study was conducted using the daily records gathered at 11 precipitation stations within the Lim River Basin, Serbia. The simulated precipitation datasets were collected from three regional climate models for the baseline period (1971–2000), as well as the future period (2006–2055) under the 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathways. The raw precipitation data from the climate models were transformed by employing four bias correction methods. Using the bias-corrected precipitation, an ensemble of annual maximum daily precipitation was developed. A weighted ensemble approach was applied to estimate the weights of each ensemble member favorizing the members whose quantiles were closer to observed measurements. The mixed general extreme value distribution was used to derive the projected quantiles with 100, 50, 25, 10, five and two year return periods based on the estimated quantiles and the normalized weights of all ensemble members. An overall increase of 69% and 56% for the 100 and 50 year return periods, respectively, can be expected within the northern part of the basin. Similarly, an overall increase of 50–57% and 39–42% for the 100 and 50 year return periods, respectively, may be expected for the central and southern parts of the Lim River Basin.

     

Mixing Patterns and Plankton Biomass of the St. Lawrence Great Lakes under Climate Change Scenarios

This study is part of an assessment of potential effects of climate change on the St. Lawrence Great Lakes. Its purpose is to investigate potential future lake mixing patterns and primary production. Nested physical and biological models were applied to seasonal mixed layer depth, heat content, primary productivity, and to algal biomass measured as particulate chlorophyll. Two independent second generation General Circulation Models provided scenarios for future conditions of cloud cover, air temperature, humidity, and winds. The climate variables were used to force heat balance and surface mixed layer models for Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario. Physical models of heat balance and mixed layer dynamics were coupled with a model of primary biological production and growth of phytoplankton. Simulated climate conditions were for time periods centered at 1975, 2030, 2050, and 2090. Climate projections from both GCMs lead to elevated mixed layer and bottom temperatures in all five lakes by as much as 5°C during this century. Both GCMs point to longer duration of thermal stratification in the five lakes, stronger stability of stratification, and deeper daily mixing depths during peak thermal stratification. For Lake Erie, no striking differences in algal biomass are likely according to climate projections of either model, but for the other lakes, either the duration of nutrient limitation of algal growth is projected to increase, or light limitation caused by deeper mixing is projected to limit the development of algal biomass.     

Great Lakes Levels and Flows: Past and Future

The many analyses of the more than 100 years’ record of Great Lakes levels and of precipitation in the basin are generally assumed to provide a reasonable basis for predicting, statistically, future lake levels. The usefulness of this assumption is questioned because of increasing consumptive use of Great Lakes waters, and probable climatic change over the next century. The International Joint Commission's 1981 report on consumptive use and diversions gives as its most likely scenario an annual growth of 2.7% in consumptive uses. By the year 2035, this would reduce Great Lakes outflows by about 708 m³ (25,000 cfs), with an estimated loss of “$200 million per year in hydro power production.” The climatic effects of the inexorable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) due mainly to burning of fossil fuels are still difficult to predict. However, the best predictions available suggest that in the next 70 years or so, the mean air temperature in the Great Lakes basin will rise by approximately 3C° and may well be accompanied by slightly less precipitation. Increases in evaporation from the Great Lakes would be equivalent to 7–8% of the mean annual flow of the St. Lawrence. These two factors — increased evaporation and increased consumptive uses — suggest that significantly lower lake levels and flows of interconnecting channels and the St. Lawrence River are likely in the next century.     

Impact of Urbanization and Climate Change on Aquifer Thermal Regimes

We evaluated the past impacts of urbanization and climate change on groundwater—in particular, aquifer temperature—in the Sendai plain, Japan, and further compared with the probable changes due to changing climate in the future. A series of simulations were performed and matched with the observed temperature-depth profiles as a preliminary step for parameter calibration. The magnitude of ground surface warming estimated from subsurface temperature spans 0.9–1.3°C, which is consistent with the calibrated ground surface warming rates surrounding various observation wells (0.021–0.015°C/year) during the last 60 years. We estimate that approximately 75% of the ground surface temperature change can be attributed to the effect of past urbanization. For the climate predictions, climate variables produced by the UK Hadley Centre’s Climate Model (HadCM3) under the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios were spatially downscaled by the transfer function method. Downscaled monthly data were used in a water budget analysis to account for the variation in recharge and were further applied in a heat transport equation together with the estimated ground surface warming rates in 2080. Anticipated groundwater recharge under the projected climate in 2080 would decrease by 1–26% compared to the 2007 estimates, despite the projected 7–28% increase in precipitation, due to a higher degree of evapotranspiration resulting from a 2.5–3.9°C increase in surface air temperature. The overall results from the three scenarios predict a 1.8–3.7°C subsurface temperature change by 2080, which is notably greater than the previous effect of urbanization and climate change on aquifer temperature in the Sendai plain.     

Snowpack response in the Assiniboine-Red River basin associated with projected global warming of 1.0 °C to 3.0 °C

This study assesses snow response in the Assiniboine-Red River basin, located in the Lake Winnipeg watershed, due to anthropogenic climate change. We use a process-based distributed snow model driven by an ensemble of eight statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to project future changes under policy-relevant global mean temperature (GMT) increases of 1.0 °C to 3.0 °C above the pre-industrial period. Results indicate that basin scale seasonal warmings generally exceed the GMT increases, with greater warming in winter months. The majority of GCMs project wetter winters and springs, and drier summers, while autumn could become either drier or wetter. An analysis of snow water equivalent (SWE) responses under GMT changes reveal higher correlations of snow cover duration (SCD), snowmelt rate, maximum SWE (SWE_max) and timing of SWE_max with winter and spring temperatures compared to precipitation, implying that these variables are predominantly temperature controlled. Consequently, under the GMT increases from 1.0 °C to 3.0 °C, the basin will experience successively shorter SCD, slower snowmelt, smaller monthly SWE and SWE_max, earlier SWE_max, and a transition from snow-dominated to rain-snow hybrid regime. Further, while the winter precipitation increases for some GCMs compensate the temperature-driven changes in SWE, the increases for most GCMs occur as rainfall, thus limiting the positive contribution to snow storage. Overall, this study provides a detailed diagnosis of the snow regime changes under the policy-relevant GMT changes, and a basis for further investigations on water quantity and quality changes.     

Environmental factors influencing annual sucker (Catostomus sp.) migration into a Great Lakes tributary

Fish migration in rivers is a growing area of concern as mounting anthropogenic influences, particularly fragmentation from dams and barriers, constitute major threats to global river species diversity. Barriers can impede the movement of fishes between areas critical to the completion of their lifecycle, affecting both population and ecosystem viability. In response, fish passage solutions have been identified as a critical need to maintain fisheries viability in the Laurentian Great Lakes, and around the world. Pivotal to the success of these fish passage solutions is a more complete understanding of the movement phenology and environmental cues that instigate migration. We used a dual-frequency identification sonar (DIDSON) to evaluate environmental triggers of river entry during spring and summer for three size classes of migratory fishes in the Boardman River, a Lake Michigan tributary. Our results indicate that medium size fish (>30 cm and < 50 cm), primarily composed of white sucker Catostomus commersonii and longnose sucker Catostomus catostomus were 21% more likely to enter the river at sunset and 25% less likely at midnight in comparison to midday. Entry rates of medium fish increased 6% for every 1 °C increase in river temperature, 4% for every 1 m³/s increase in river discharge from the day prior, and were reduced by 1% for every 10 cm increase in lake level. Understanding these processes in the tributaries of the Great Lakes is important to inform the fish passage solutions currently being developed for the Boardman River, and to inform management regulations for Great Lakes migratory fishes.     

Changes in mid-summer water temperature and clarity across the Great Lakes between 1968 and 2002

In recent decades, three important events have likely played a role in changing the water temperature and clarity of the Laurentian Great Lakes: 1) warmer climate, 2) reduced phosphorus loading, and 3) invasion by European Dreissenid mussels. This paper compiled environmental data from government agencies monitoring the middle and lower portions of the Great Lakes basin (lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario) to document changes in aquatic environments between 1968 and 2002. Over this 34-year period, mean annual air temperature increased at an average rate of 0.037 °C/y, resulting in a 1.3 °C increase. Surface water temperature during August has been rising at annual rates of 0.084 °C (Lake Huron) and 0.048 °C (Lake Ontario) resulting in increases of 2.9 °C and 1.6 °C, respectively. In Lake Erie, the trend was also positive, but it was smaller and not significant. Water clarity, measured here by August Secchi depth, increased in all lakes. Secchi depth increased 1.7 m in Lake Huron, 3.1 m in Lake Ontario and 2.4 m in Lake Erie. Prior to the invasion of Dreissenid mussels, increases in Secchi depth were significant (p < 0.05) in lakes Erie and Ontario, suggesting that phosphorus abatement aided water clarity. After Dreissenid mussel invasion, significant increases in Secchi depth were detected in lakes Ontario and Huron.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources Availability and Agricultural Water Demand in the West Bank

Global climate change is predicted as a result of increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. It is predicted that climate change will result in increasing temperature by 2 to 6°C and a possible reduction of precipitation of up to 16% in the Mediterranean basin. In this study, the West Bank is taken as a case study from the Mediterranean basin to evaluate the effects of such climate change on water resources availability and agricultural water demands. Due to the uncertainty in climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation, a number of scenarios for these impacts were assumed within the range of predicted changes. For temperature, three scenarios of 2, 4 and 6°C increase were assumed. For precipitation, two scenarios of no change and 16% precipitation reduction were assumed. Based on these scenarios, monthly evapotranspiration and monthly precipitation excess depths were estimated at seven weather stations distributed over the different climatic and geographical areas of the West Bank. GIS spatial analyses showed that the increase in temperature predicted by climate change could potentially increase agricultural water demands by up to 17% and could also result in reducing annual groundwater recharge by up to 21% of existing values. However, the effects of reduced precipitation resulting from climate change are more enormous as a 16% reduction in precipitation could result in reducing annual groundwater recharge in the West Bank by about 30% of existing value. When this effect is combined with a 6°C increase in temperature, the reduction in groundwater recharge could reach 50%.     

Predicting the potential distribution of the non-native Red Swamp Crayfish Procambarus clarkii in the Laurentian Great Lakes

The ongoing threat of introduction of invasive species, including crayfish, to the Laurentian Great Lakes has motivated the development of predictive models to inform where these invaders are likely to establish. Our study is among the first to apply regional freshwater-specific GIS layers to species occurrence data to predict ecosystem suitability to invasions, specifically for the red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii, in the Great Lakes. We combined a database of crayfish species occurrences with the Great Lakes Aquatic Habitat Framework (GLAHF) GIS layers to model habitats suitable to invasion by P. clarkii using boosted regression trees and physiological information for this species. We developed a model of all suitable crayfish habitat across the Great Lakes, then constrained this habitat to areas anticipated to be suitable for P. clarkii based on known physiological limitations of this species. Specifically, P. clarkii requires a minimum temperature of 15?°C for copulation and oviposition, with peak reproduction occurring at temperatures of 20–23?°C. We identified 2% of the Great Lakes as suitable for P. clarkii establishment and 0.88% as optimal for this crayfish, primarily located on the southern coastlines of lakes Michigan and Erie and shallow bays including Saginaw Bay (Lake Huron), Green Bay (Lake Michigan), and Henderson Bay (Lake Ontario). These predictions of where P. clarkii is likely to establish populations can be used to identify areas where education, outreach, compliance, and law enforcement efforts should seek to prevent new introductions of this crayfish and help prioritize locations for surveillance to detect newly established populations.     

Trace element loads in the Great Lakes Basin: A reconnaissance

Water quality data for trace elements in the Great Lakes are relatively scarce, complicating the assessment of current trace element baselines and their distribution patterns. Here, we present concentration data for >40 major and trace elements in >100 samples from the Great Lakes connecting channels, surface waters, precipitation and select Canadian tributaries, to establish a high-level assessment of loading rates across the basin. Contrasting upstream-to-downstream trends were observed for the investigated trace elements, ranging from net-decreasing (>5-fold for e.g., Co, Tl, Y) to net-increasing surface water concentrations (>2-fold for e.g., Sb, U, As). Calculated loading rates reveal different, element-specific controls of runoff, connecting channel loads or precipitation on trace element occurrence. Lake-wide elemental mass-balances could be reasonably closed for conservative trace elements (e.g., Li, <53% residual) but not for others (e.g., rare earth elements with up to 5-fold discrepancies), reflective of general data scarcity and uncertainty in loading rates. In line with major water quality trends, spatial distribution patterns in Lakes Erie and Ontario display subtle near-shore to off-shore heterogeneity for a few trace elements (<1 order-of-magnitude for V or Se), but higher variability for trace elements with significant inputs derived from tributaries. This work provides important quantitative baseline data for trace elements in the Great Lakes that may help optimize surveillance and management strategies for the preservation of Great Lakes water quality.     

Hydrology under climate change in a temporary river system: Potential impact on water balance and flow regime

The potential impacts of future climate scenarios on water balance and flow regime are presented and discussed for a temporary river system in southern Italy. Different climate projections for the future (2030–2059) and the recent conditions (1980–2009) were investigated. A hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate water balance at the basin scale and streamflow in a number of river sections under various climate change scenarios, based on different combinations of global and regional models (global circulation models and regional climate models). The impact on water balance components was quantified at the basin and subbasin levels as deviation from the baseline (1980–2009), and the flow regime alteration under changing climate was estimated using a number of hydrological indicators. An increase in mean temperature for all months between 0.5–2.4 °C and a reduction in precipitation (by 4–7%) was predicted for the future. As a consequence, a decline of blue water (7–18%) and total water yield (11–28%) was estimated. Although the river type classification remains unvaried, the flow regime distinctly moves towards drier conditions and the divergence from the current status increases in future scenarios, especially for those reaches classified as I‐D (ie, intermittent‐dry) and E (ephemeral). Hydrological indicators showed a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations, an extension of the dry season and an exacerbation of extreme low flow conditions. A reduction of snowfall in the mountainous part of the basin and an increase in potential evapotranspiration was also estimated (4–4.4%). Finally, the paper analyses the implications of the climate change for river ecosystems and for River Basin Management Planning. The defined quantitative estimates of water balance alteration could support the identification of priorities that should be addressed in upcoming years to set water‐saving actions.