河西走廊流域治理的科学问题及其思考

针对河西走廊三流域治理,从水资源承载能力、社会经济发展模式、水资源利用秩序等方面,剖析各流域产生生态问题的科学必然性,以及流域治理手段的针对性。从黑河、石羊河流域治理的效果及流域演化基本规律出发,提出河西走廊三流域后治理时代可持续发展在气候变化、经济转型和粮食安全等方面的科学思考。     

基于水资源对社会的约束和管理研究的探讨——以重庆市为例

从分析水资源承载能力着手,重点考虑有限的水资源如何约束、承载城镇社会经济的布局和发展规模,如何以有限的水资源支撑城镇建设目标的最优化、最大化。开展基于水资源对社会的约束和管理研究不仅理论意义重大,且更具有紧迫的现实与重大战略意义。     

西北诸河水资源供需分析与配置格局

西北诸河地域广大,不同地区水资源及其开发利用情况差异明显。针对西北诸河各地区各流域特点,在对河流水资源情况、开发利用状况、承载能力分析的基础上,按照水资源三次平衡的分析方法,基于深入挖潜节水、多渠道开源、适时调水的总体思路进行水资源供需分析和合理配置。通过水资源合理配置,可基本实现水资源的供需平衡,支撑区域经济社会的快速发展和生态环境的良性维持。     

南方经济跨越式发展地区水资源合理配置理论研究

分析总结国内外水资源合理配置理论方法,提出了水质水量联合配置是未来水资源合理配置的发展趋势。探讨了南方经济跨越式发展地区水资源合理配置的内涵,并结合南方经济跨越式发展地区水资源条件详细阐述了南方经济跨越式发展地区水资源配置的具体内容。     

A Modeling System for the Evaluation of Water Resources Management Strategies in Thessaly,Greece

A modeling system was developed to evaluate the sustainability of water resources management strategies in the two major basins of Thessaly Region in Greece, namely the Pinios River and the Lake Karla basins. The intense and extensive agriculture of water demanding crops, such as cotton, and the absence of reasonable water resources management have lead to a remarkable water demand increase, which is usually fulfilled by the over-exploitation of groundwater resources. This unsustainable practice has deteriorated the already disturbed water balance and accelerated water resources degradation. The modeling system consists of a hydrological model, a reservoir operation model and methods for the estimation of water demands. The study area was sub-divided into sub-basins and water balance analyses were performed for each sub-basin and each control node of the system for a number of water resources management strategies. Four strategies of hydro-technical project development were coupled with two strategies of groundwater withdrawal and three water demand strategies. In total, more than 24 water management strategies were evaluated. The results showed that, under the existing water resources management, the water deficit of the Pinios River and Lake Karla basins is very large. However, the development of proposed hydro-technical projects in the Pinios River basin coupled with water demand management measures, like improvement of existing water distribution systems, change of irrigation methods, and changes of crop cultivation could alleviate the problem and lead to sustainable and ecological use of water resources in the study area.     

基于AHP-Fuzzy法的汉江流域水资源承载力评价与预测

水资源承载力作为评价地区水资源安全与否的一个基本度量,其理论与应用研究意义重大。根据DPSIR框架展开水资源承载力因子分析,得到一个4层递阶结构的指标初选框架,并构建了一套全面的水资源承载力指标体系。以汉江流域为例,采用层次分析-模糊综合评价法(AHP-Fuzzy)展开水资源承载力评价与预测。分析结果表明不调水情况下,江汉流域3级分区中,丹江口以上分区水资源承载力优于其他2分区;实施调水后,各分区水资源承载力受跨流域调水的影响而发生变化,均可认为已达到基本可承载状态。     

Combining Population Growth Model and Generalized Additive Model to Determine Optimal Water Level FOR Waterbird Conservation: A Case Study of Siberian Crane (Leucogeranus Leucogeranus) in Lake Poyang,China

Siberian crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus) is one of the most endangered species in the world. The ecological integrity of its main wintering ground at Poyang Lake in China is crucial for the future of the species because Poyang Lake accommodates 99% of its global population. With the Three Gorges Dam fully operational, science‐based adaptive strategies are urgently needed to avoid catastrophic ecological consequences. This study quantified the link between water level variation and population growth rate of the Siberian crane in Poyang Lake using a suite of advanced statistical techniques. We first used the stochastic Gompert growth model within the state space modelling (SSM) framework to infer population growth rate, density dependence, and process variability and observation errors. We then applied generalized additive models (GAMs) to the population growth rate to quantify the effects of environmental stochasticity. Our SSM results indicated that there was little support for density dependence, and environmental stochasticity was the main forcing for Siberian crane population variations in Poyang Lake. Although the SSM suggested that water levels in both high‐ and low‐water seasons were important factors for Siberian crane population, inference on their effects were elusive because of large confidence intervals of the estimated coefficients. Using GAM, we confirmed the non‐linear effects of water level on population growth rate. Based on the modelled response curves, we proposed the optimal water level for Siberian crane conservation: (a) maximum summer water season level should be less than 19.5 m and (b) minimum winter water level should be between 8.7–10.2 m. Our methods of integrating population dynamic model and GAM have wide relevance for regional biological conversation efforts that seek to maintain a resilient population of threatened species. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

离散Hopfield神经网络在湖库营养状态评价中的应用——以全国24个湖库富营养化等级评价为例

基于离散Hopfield神经网络联想记忆特性,建立了湖库富营养化等级综合评价模型,对全国24个湖库进行富营养化等级综合评价,并与文献投影寻踪法、评分指标法和LM-BP网络法的评价结果进行比较。结果表明:①离散Hopfield神经网络运用于湖库营养化等级评价具有简单、直观,容易实现等优点,其评价结果令人满意;②一般离散Hopfield神经网络并非适用于任何富营养化等级评价,当评价对象单项指标(因子)间存在较大差异时,对象将得不到正确的评价。