Methodology for safety optimization of highway cross-sections for horizontal curves with restricted sight distance

Several earlier studies have noted the shortcomings with existing geometric design guides which provide deterministic standards. In these standards the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from the standards. To mitigate these shortcomings, probabilistic geometric design has been advocated where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a mechanism for risk measurement to evaluate the safety impact of deviations from design standards. This paper applies reliability analysis for optimizing the safety of highway cross-sections. The paper presents an original methodology to select a suitable combination of cross-section elements with restricted sight distance to result in reduced collisions and consistent risk levels. The purpose of this optimization method is to provide designers with a proactive approach to the design of cross-section elements in order to (i) minimize the risk associated with restricted sight distance, (ii) balance the risk across the two carriageways of the highway, and (iii) reduce the expected collision frequency. A case study involving nine cross-sections that are parts of two major highway developments in British Columbia, Canada, was presented. The results showed that an additional reduction in collisions can be realized by incorporating the reliability component, P_nc (denoting the probability of non-compliance), in the optimization process. The proposed approach results in reduced and consistent risk levels for both travel directions in addition to further collision reductions.     

Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures

Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P_nc) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit–cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P_nc provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I + F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions.     

Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures

Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P_nc) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit–cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P_nc provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I + F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions.     

Reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization of roadway horizontal curves using a first-order reliability method

This article presents reliability analysis and reliability-based optimization of roadway minimum radius design based on vehicle dynamics, mainly focusing on exit ramps and interchanges. The performance functions are formulated as failure modes of vehicle rollover and sideslip. To accurately describe the failure modes, analytical models for rollover and sideslip are derived considering nonlinear characteristics of vehicle behaviour using the commercial software TruckSim. The probability of an accident is evaluated using the first-order reliability method and numerical studies are conducted using a single-unit truck model. To propose a practical application for the study, the reliability analysis for the minimum radius recommended by American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials is conducted. The results show that, even if there are deviations from assumed design conditions of the current design guideline, the proposed design method can guarantee given target margins of safety against rollover and sideslip. Based on the reliability analysis, reliability-based design optimization is carried out and the results indicate new recommendations for minimum radii satisfying given target reliability levels.     

Modeling the impact of spatial relationships on horizontal curve safety

The curved segments of roadways are more hazardous because of the additional centripetalforces exerted on a vehicle, driver expectations, and other factors. The safety of a curve is dependent on various factors, most notably by geometric factors, but the location of a curve in relation to other curves is also thought to influence the safety of those curves because of a driver's expectation to encounter additional curves. The link between an individual curve's geometric characteristics and its safety performance has been established, but spatial considerations are typically not included in a safety analysis. The spatial considerations included in this research consisted of four components: distance to adjacent curves, direction of turn of the adjacent curves, and radius and length of the adjacent curves. The primary objective of this paper is to quantify the spatial relationship between adjacent horizontal curves and horizontal curve safety using a crash modification factor. Doing so enables a safety professional to more accurately estimate safety to allocate funding to reduce or prevent future collisions and more efficiently design new roadway sections to minimize crash risk where there will be a series of curves along a route. The most important finding from this research is the statistical significance of spatial considerations for the prediction of horizontal curve safety. The distances to adjacent curves were found to be a reliable predictor of observed collisions. This research recommends a model which utilizes spatial considerations for horizontal curve safety prediction in addition to current Highway Safety Manual prediction capabilities using individual curve geometric features.     

液压互联馈能悬架工作模式设计与试验研究

针对液压互联悬架在单一的综合性模式下无法实现车辆全局工况最优,设计了一种具有舒适性、安全性和馈能性三种模式的液压互联馈能悬架,在改善车辆行驶平顺性及操纵稳定性的同时回馈振动能量。以路面激励频率作为悬架各模式切换阈值,基于恒流控制方法,设计了多模式控制系统,并得到了各模式下最优电流值。以正弦路面和随机路面为例,对所设计的三种工作模式下的悬架性能进行了仿真分析。结果表明,与综合性模式相比,液压互联馈能悬架在舒适性模式下车身加速度减小10.77%,安全性模式下轮胎动载荷减小17.43%,馈能性模式下理论馈能功率提高19.48%。为验证仿真有效性,试制了悬架原理样机并进行台架试验。结果表明,所提出的三种工作模式能兼顾车辆的平顺性、操稳性和馈能特性。     

Tolerance‐based reliability and optimization design of switched‐mode power supply

Due to its high efficiency and low power consumption, switched‐mode power supply (SMPS) represents the development trend of the stabilized voltage power supply. However, tolerance has become one of the key factors in the design of SMPS because of the process fluctuation of electronic components, unstable input parameters of the circuit system, influence of working conditions and environment, and the effect of aging. In order to improve the reliability of SMPS and reduce the manufacturing cost, this paper proposes a reliability analysis and optimization design method based on the tolerance and sensitivity analysis. Finally, this method is applied to the tolerance design for the positive switching power supply of the SMPS circuits, and the optimal tolerance design scheme is obtained. Furthermore, the reliability and probability density curves are evaluated.     

ZG230-450铸钢的重构疲劳可靠性S-N曲线

给定若干概率水平的常规疲劳可靠性曲线只能做相应概率水平的疲劳设计与寿命预测,要实现任意可靠性水平的疲劳设计、寿命预测和可靠性评定,需要重构全概率疲劳可靠性S-N曲线。首先应用Monte Carlo模拟技术在可接受的误差范围重构了铁道车辆ZG230-450车轮铸钢的疲劳极限和成组法S-N数据。然后应用广义极大似然法测定了其中短寿命范围的可靠性S-N曲线。最后应用概率疲劳极限外推法获得了该材料中短和长寿命范围的合理疲劳概率S-N曲线。并进一步发展了适于车辆结构用万公里单位表征的可靠性曲线。应用该曲线可实现任意可靠性水平的疲劳可靠性设计、寿命预测和可靠性评价。     

平面阻尼型欠驱动夹持器的多模式参数优化设计

欠驱动夹持器具有良好的自适应特性,广泛应用于机器人领域。针对欠驱动夹持器工作模式较多而导致参数优化困难的问题,以典型的平面阻尼型欠驱动夹持器为研究对象,提出一种夹持器多模式参数优化设计方法。所研究的夹持器有2种工作模式,分别为两点夹持与包络夹持。首先,对夹持器各工作模式进行静力学分析,建立输出夹持力与输入扭矩的解析关系,并引入外部约束法解决包络夹持静平衡位置较难确定的问题;然后,对各工作模式进行夹持力优化,以获得最优结构参数,并分析优化方向的共性;最后,通过ADAMS仿真验证了优化结果的正确性。结果表明：2种工作模式的优化方向相同且优化效果明显。本研究为多工作模式欠驱动夹持器的优化设计提供了参考方法。     

钢筋混凝土框架结构基于可靠度的最可能倒塌失效模式分析

在建筑结构的抗震设计中,常常希望通过合理的设计,使结构能按预期的强柱弱梁失效模式破坏,通常通过提高柱端弯矩增大系数(COF)使结构满足“强柱弱梁”的要求。该文考虑上层、下层、中间层这3 类层间失效模式,采用结构可靠度理论,对钢筋混凝土框架结构最可能倒塌失效模式及完全梁铰式失效模式的相对发生概率进行研究。算例结果表明:当COF 较小时,结构最可能失效模式为中层失效模式;当COF 较大时,则结构倒塌由上层失效模式控制。研究结果可为罕遇或特大地震作用下结构的抗倒塌设计提供参考。     

Modeling rear-end collisions including the role of driver's visibility and light truck vehicles using a nested logit structure

This paper presents an analysis of the effect of the geometric incompatibility of light truck vehicles (LTV)--light-duty trucks, vans, and sport utility vehicles--on drivers' visibility of other passenger cars involved in rear-end collisions. The geometric incompatibility arises from the fact that most LTVs ride higher and are wider than regular passenger cars. The objective of this paper is to explore the effect of the lead vehicle's size on the rear-end crash configuration. Four rear-end crash configurations are defined based on the type of the two involved vehicles (lead and following vehicles). Nested logit models were calibrated to estimate the probabilities of the four rear-end crash configurations as a function of driver's age, gender, vehicle type, vehicle maneuver, light conditions, driver's visibility and speed. Results showed that driver's visibility and inattention in the following (striker) vehicle have the largest effect on being involved in a rear-end collision of configuration CarTrk (a regular passenger car striking an LTV). Possibly, indicating a sight distance problem. A driver of a smaller car following an LTV, have a problem seeing the roadway beyond the LTV, and therefore would not be able to adjust his/her speed accordingly, increasing the probability of a rear-end collision. Also, the probability of a CarTrk rear-end crash increases in the case that the lead vehicle stops suddenly.     

A multi-mode failure boundary exploration and exploitation framework using adaptive kriging model for system reliability assessment

Various adaptive reliability analysis methods based on surrogate models have recently been developed. A multi-mode failure boundary exploration and exploitation framework (MFBEEF) was proposed for system reliability assessment using the adaptive kriging model based on sample space partitioning to reduce computational cost and use the characteristics of the failure boundary in multiple failure mode systems. The efficiency of the adaptive construction of kriging model can be improved by using the characteristics of the center sample of the small space to represent the characteristics of all samples in the small space. This method proposes a failure boundary exploration and exploitation strategy and a convergence criterion based on the maximum failure probability error for a system with multiple failure modes to adaptively approximate the failure boundary of a system with multiple failure modes. A multiple-failure-mode learning function was used to identify the optimal training sample to gradually update the kriging model during the failure boundary exploration and exploitation stages. In addition, a complex failure boundary-oriented adaptive hybrid importance sampling method was developed to improve the applicability of the MFBEEF method to small failure probability assessments. Finally, the MFBEEF method was proven to be effective using five system reliability analysis examples: a series system, a parallel system, a series–parallel hybrid system, a multi-dimensional series system with multiple failure modes, and an engineering problem with multiple implicit performance functions.     

车辆半主动悬架阻尼多模式切换控制研究

为提高车辆行驶平顺性,提出了一种基于阻尼多模式切换减振器的车辆半主动悬架及其控制方法。相较于传统阻尼可调减振器,该新型减振器通过控制两个高速开关电磁阀的通断状态即可实现四种不同的阻尼工作模式,从而使得车辆半主动悬架的阻尼控制更加高效和节能。分析了阻尼多模式切换减振器的基本原理,建立了减振器阻尼特性数学模型。结合车辆悬架系统的阻尼比范围,确定了减振器关键部件参数,并通过仿真获取了四种阻尼工作模式下的减振器复原阻尼系数和压缩阻尼系数。在此基础上,进一步建立了车辆半主动悬架数学模型,采用模糊控制逻辑设计了悬架阻尼多模式切换控制策略。仿真结果表明,相较于传统被动悬架和基于天棚控制的半主动悬架,基于阻尼多模式切换减振器的车辆半主动悬架可以进一步改善车辆行驶平顺性。     

视轴偏角对三轴光电跟踪系统跟踪过程的影响

地平式、X-Y式光电跟踪系统存在空间跟踪盲区。三轴光电跟踪系统通过跟踪方式切换可以解决空间跟踪盲区问题,但视轴偏角使得脱靶量到轴转动量的转换不同于常规地平式跟踪系统,同时使系统具有不可见区域。分析和仿真表明:视轴偏角较小时,脱靶量与轴驱动量的转换可用常规地平式跟踪系统中的方法近似,否则,需用不同的计算方法;在三轴跟踪系统退化成的地平式跟踪系统的天顶跟踪盲区外即可进行跟踪方式切换。     

Measurement Uncertainty: Methods and Applications

We consider the problem of determining an optimal experimental design for estimation of parameters of a class of complex curves characterizing nanowire growth that is partially exponential and partially linear. Locally D-optimal designs for some of the models belonging to this class are obtained by using a geometric approach. Further, a Bayesian sequential algorithm is proposed for obtaining D-optimal designs for models with a closed-form solution, and for obtaining efficient designs in situations where theoretical results cannot be obtained. The advantages of the proposed algorithm over traditional approaches adopted in recently reported nanoexperiments are demonstrated using Monte Carlo simulations. The computer code implementing the sequential algorithm is available as supplementary materials.     

基于3-(RRR)E(RR)S并联机构的多运动模式分析

目的 多模式机器人具有智能型可重构和变结构特性的能力，能够主动或被动适应多变的环境，设计一种能够在包装工程领域应用的多运动模式并联机构。方法 从螺旋理论出发，通过研究线矢量与偶量在不同几何空间中的相关性，得出在一定条件下约束力可以转化为法向约束力偶，为并联机构实现多模式运动提供了理论支撑。结果 通过3-(RRR)E(RR)S并联机构变形，得出该机构的具有3R、2T1R和2R1T等3种运动模式，在各种运动模式下的自由度均为3，具有全周性。结论 基于3-(RRR)E(RR)S并联机构，通过变化支链约束力线矢空间位置关系来改变机构的约束条件，使该并联机构能够实现3R、2T1R和2R1T多模式运动，满足物流分拣、抓放定位、产品空间姿态调整等需求。     

Automatic generation of stochastically dominant failure modes in frame structures for reliability studies

Structural system design for reliability requires failure probability prediction as bounds or as a unique value. The analysis here refers to plane frame, both steel and reinforced concrete (RC), modelled as a combination of series and parallel systems from the reliability standpoint. Using the concept of failure path probability, stochastically dominant failure modes are identified heuristically taking into account the infinite and limited rotation capacity of steel and RC sections. This paper highlights the advantage of using this strategy as it does away with regeneration of failure modes for RC frames as has been attempted earlier. The heuristic also ensures that no failure mode with a reliability level that can be chosen during the analysis is missed, which contributes significantly to system failure probability.     

无人驾驶车元宇宙智能座舱的场景交互设计研究

目的 传统汽车座舱的交互环境模态单一、媒介通道单一、人车交互场景单一,随着无人驾驶车元宇宙智能座舱的场景向着智能交互、多模态、多媒介、多元化的发展,人车交互和场景交互的模式,亟待运用空间场景交互的理论,优化智能座舱的场景交互设计方法。方法 借助场景理论和案例分析,建构智能座舱场景交互模型,剖析XR扩展现实HMI车机系统的交互设计特征,归纳总结多模态的人车交互场景,提出无人驾驶车元宇宙智能座舱的场景交互设计策略。结果 搭建智能座舱AR增强现实场景、VR虚拟场景、MR现实与虚拟混合场景,推出SMIM智能座舱场景交互模型与交互设计策略。结论 物资流、信息流、能量流、资金流、体验心流共同构成智能座舱的场景交互模型要素,针对无人驾驶车元宇宙的人车交互、智能空间交互、元宇宙内容的智能交互,具有重要的指导意义与应用价值。     

Rapid risk assessment using probability of fracture nomographs

Traditional risk-based design process involves designing the structure based on risk estimates obtained during several iterations of an optimization routine. This approach is computationally expensive for large-scale aircraft structural systems. Therefore, this paper introduces the concept of risk-based design plots that can be used for both structural sizing and risk assessment for fracture strength when maximum allowable crack length is available. In situations when crack length is defined as a probability distribution the presented approach can only be applied for various percentiles of crack lengths. These plots are obtained using normalized probability density models of load and material properties and are applicable for any arbitrary load and strength values. Risk-based design plots serve as a tool for failure probability assessment given geometry and applied load or they can determine geometric constraints to be used in sizing given allowable failure probability. This approach would transform a reliability-based optimization problem into a deterministic optimization problem with geometric constraints that implicitly incorporate risk into the design. In this paper, cracked flat plate and stiffened plate are used to demonstrate the methodology and its applicability.     

基于FVM数值分析的海工混凝土结构耐久可靠度Monte Carlo模拟

为研究海工混凝土结构耐久性设计及寿命预测的可靠度方法,分析了耐久性设计与寿命预测的半理论、半经验解析模型方法,讨论了截面形状等条件对氯离子扩散传输的影响。该文研究应用有限体积法(FVM)分析求解混凝土中氯离子含量和蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)模拟求解耐久失效概率,分析海工混凝土结构耐久可靠度。这种方法可简称FVM-MC方法。在FVM-MC方法中,首先采用FVM方法求解混凝土中的氯离子含量,然后采用Monte Carlo方法对失效概率进行模拟求解。验证分析表明,FVM-MC方法分析模拟精度高,是海工混凝土结构可靠度分析的一种可靠方法。计算结果表明,截面形状等对混凝土结构的耐久可靠度具有显著的影响,采用Fick第二定律解析解的半理论、半经验模型,由于没有考虑截面形状效应,增加了矩形截面构件的耐久失效风险;圆形截面具有近似一维的扩散传输特点,在条件相同情况下,其构件耐久可靠度显著地高于方形或矩形截面的构件。