A model of traffic crashes in New Zealand

The aim of this study was to examine the changes in the trend and seasonal patterns in fatal crashes in New Zealand in relation to changes in economic conditions between 1970 and 1994. The Harvey and Durbin (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 149 (3) (1986) 187-227) structural time series model (STSM), an 'unobserved components' class of model, was used to estimate models for quarterly fatal traffic crashes. The dependent variable was modelled as the number of crashes and three variants of the crash rate (crashes per 10,000 km travelled, crashes per 1,000 vehicles, and crashes per 1000 population). Independent variables included in the models were unemployment rate (UER), real gross domestic product per capita, the proportion of motorcycles, the proportion of young males in the population, alcohol consumption per capita, the open road speed limit, and dummy variables for the 1973 and 1979 oil crises and seat belt wearing laws. UERs, real GDP per capita, and alcohol consumption were all significant and important factors in explaining the short-run dynamics of the models. In the long-run, real GDP per capita was directly related to the number of crashes but after controlling for distance travelled was not significant. This suggests increases in income are associated with a short-run reduction in risk but increases in exposure to a crash (i.e. distance travelled) in the long-run. A 1% increase in the open road speed limit was associated with a long-run 0.5% increase in fatal crashes. Substantial reductions in fatal crashes were associated with the 1979 oil crisis and seat belt wearing laws. The 1984 universal seat belt wearing law was associated with a sustained 15.6% reduction in fatal crashes. These road policy factors appeared to have a greater influence on crashes than the role of demographic and economic factors.     

Rear seat safer: seating position, restraint use and injuries in children in traffic crashes in Victoria, Australia

Car crashes are a major cause of death and serious injury to children but most analyses of risk are based on US data. The Australian context is different in at least three ways: (1) the proportion of passenger-side airbags, a potential risk to children in front seats, is much lower; (2) unlike in the US, Australian airbags are designed to work with restrained passengers; (3) restraint use for children 0-12 years is high (>90%). Official data drawn from Victorian crash records (n=30,631) were used to calculate relative risks of death or serious injury for children (0-3 years, 4-7 years; 8-12 years) traveling in passenger cars during 1993-1998 and 1999-2004. Over 90% were reportedly wearing a restraint, and 20% were traveling in the front seat. For children under 4 years traveling in the front seat, the relative risk of death was twice as great as when traveling in the rear, and that of serious injury was 60% greater. The relative risk of death whilst traveling in the front seat was almost four times greater for children aged under 1 year. We suggest that serious consideration should be given to mandating rear seating for children, particularly those aged 4 and under.     

The relationship between social capital and traffic law violations: Israeli Arabs as a case study

Social aspects of a community may be correlated with driver's involvement in road traffic accidents. This study focused on examining this association in the context of the social capital theory. A survey of 600 Arab drivers living in 19 towns and villages was conducted using a face-to-face interview. Structural equation modeling was applied to explore paths of associations between the model components. Most of the proposed relationships in the path model were found to be significant, where the model explained 37% of the variation. The results indicate that only volunteering and reciprocity have direct correlations with traffic law violations. While the other correlations (except political involvement), were mediated by attitudes toward traffic laws violation.     

Passenger seating position and the risk of passenger death or injury in traffic crashes

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the association of passenger seat position with the risk of death and serious injury for passengers in traffic crashes. METHODS: Using 1993-2000 data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's Crashworthiness Data System (CDS), the risk ratio for death and serious injury was estimated for rear seat passengers compared with front seat passengers in motor vehicle crashes. RESULTS: The adjusted risk ratio for death of passengers in the rear seat in a crash was 0.61 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46-0.81). Rear seat passenger position was also associated with a decrease in the risk of death and serious injury compared with the front seat passenger position: risk ratio=0.67 (95% CI 0.57-0.78). CONCLUSION: We estimated that the rear seat passenger position may reduce the risk of death in a motor vehicle crash by about 39% and reduce the risk of death or serious injury in a crash by 33%, compared with the front seat passenger position. If the associations that we report are causal, sitting in the rear seat, compared with the front seat, may prevent about 4 in 10 passenger deaths, or 3 in 10 passenger deaths and injuries, that might otherwise occur.     

Comparing the cost of alcohol-related traffic crashes in rural and urban environments

Context

Existing studies have identified that, although to a lesser extent than individual factors such as males and young people, rural (compared to urban) communities represent a disproportionately high-risk of alcohol-related traffic crashes (ARTCs). To date, however, few studies have attempted to apply different costs to alcohol crashes of different severity, to provide more precise, and practically useful, data on which to base public health policy and intervention decisions.

Objective

The aim of this study is to quantify the per capita prevalence and differential costs of alcohol crashes of different levels of severity to determine the extent to which urban and rural geographical areas may differ in the costs attributable to ARTCs.

Design

A cross-sectional analysis of alcohol-related traffic crash and costs data from 2001 to 2007.

Setting and participants

Data from New South Wales, Australia.

Main outcome measures

Modified routinely collected traffic accident data to which costs relevant to alcohol crashes of different severity are applied.

Results

Although the rate per 10,000 population of alcohol-related crashes is 1.5 times higher in rural, relative to urban, communities, the attributable cost is four times higher, which largely reflects that rural alcohol-fatalities are seven to eight times more prevalent and costly.

Conclusions

Given that per capita alcohol-related fatal crashes in rural areas account for a disproportionately large proportion of the harms and costs associated with alcohol-related traffic crashes, the cost-effectiveness of public health interventions and public policy initiatives should consider the relative extent of ARTC-harm in rural versus urban communities.     

Geographical information systems aided traffic accident analysis system case study: city of Afyonkarahisar

Geographical Information System (GIS) technology has been a popular tool for visualization of accident data and analysis of hot spots in highways. Many traffic agencies have been using GIS for accident analysis. Accident analysis studies aim at the identification of high rate accident locations and safety deficient areas on the highways. So, traffic officials can implement precautionary measures and provisions for traffic safety. Since accident reports are prepared in textual format in Turkey, this situation makes it difficult to analyze accident results. In our study, we developed a system transforming these textual data to tabular form and then this tabular data were georeferenced onto the highways. Then, the hot spots in the highways in Afyonkarahisar administrative border were explored and determined with two different methods of Kernel Density analysis and repeatability analysis. Subsequently, accident conditions at these hot spots were examined. We realized that the hot spots determined with two methods reflect really problematic places such as cross roads, junction points etc. Many of previous studies introduced GIS only as a visualization tool for accident locations. The importance of this study was to use GIS as a management system for accident analysis and determination of hot spots in Turkey with statistical analysis methods.     

Comprehensive analysis of single- and multi-vehicle large truck at-fault crashes on rural and urban roadways in Alabama

The research described in this paper analyzed injury severities at a disaggregate level for single-vehicle (SV) and multi-vehicle (MV) large truck at-fault accidents for rural and urban locations in Alabama. Given the occurrence of a crash, four separate random parameter logit models of injury severity (with possible outcomes of major, minor, and possible or no injury) were estimated. The models identified different sets of factors that can lead to effective policy decisions aimed at reducing large truck-at-fault accidents for respective locations. The results of the study clearly indicated that there are differences between the influences of a variety of variables on the injury severities resulting from urban vs. rural SV and MV large truck at-fault accidents. The results showed that some variables were significant only in one type of accident model (SV or MV) but not in the other accident model. Again, some variables were found to be significant in one location (rural or urban) but not in other locations. The study also identified important factors that significantly impact the injury severity resulting from SV and MV large truck at-fault accidents in urban and rural locations based on the estimated values of average direct pseudo-elasticity. A careful study of the results of this study will help policy makers and transportation agencies identify location specific recommendations to increase safety awareness related to large truck involved accidents and to improve overall highway safety.     

The economic costs of road traffic crashes: Australia, states and territories

In this paper, we obtain detailed data on road traffic crash (RTC) casualties, by severity, for each of the eight state and territory jurisdictions for Australia and use these to estimate and compare the economic impact of RTCs across these regions. We show that the annual cost of RTCs in Australia, in 2003, was approximately $17b, which is approximately 2.3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Importantly, though, there is remarkable intra-national variation in the incident rates of RTCs in Australia and costs range from approximately 0.62 to 3.63% of Gross State Product (GSP). The paper makes two fundamental contributions: (i) it provides a detailed breakdown of estimated RTC casualties, by state and territory regions in Australia, and (ii) it presents the first sub-national breakdown of RTC costs for Australia. We trust that these contributions will assist policy-makers to understand sub-national variations in the road toll better and will encourage further research on the causes of the marked differences between RTC outcomes across the states and territories of Australia.     

Dominant role of drivers’ attitude in prevention of road traffic crashes: A study on knowledge,attitude, and practice of drivers in Iran

Objective

Evaluating the relation between Iranian drivers’ knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) regarding traffic regulations, and their deterministic effect on road traffic crashes (RTCs).

Setting

Two cities of Tehran and Zahedan, Iran.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was designed. Using a simplified cluster sampling design, 2200 motor vehicle drivers including 1200 in Tehran and 1000 in Zahedan were selected. Sixty locations in Tehran and 50 in Zahedan were chosen. In each pre-identified location, 20 adult drivers were approached consecutively. A questionnaire developed by researchers was filled by each participant. The questionnaire had four sections including items assessing the demographics, knowledge, attitude and practice of drivers toward traffic regulations. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between the RTCs and KAP variables.

Results

The study sample consisted of 619 (28.1%) occupational and 1580 (71.8%) private drivers. Among them, 86.4% were male. The median age was 33.6 ± 10.83. Drivers in Tehran and Zahedan had no significant differences between their mean scores of KAP items of the questionnaire. Higher knowledge, safer attitude, and safer practice were associated with a decreased number of RTC. After adjusting for possible confounders, increase of one standard deviation in attitude and practice scores (but not knowledge) resulted in 26.4% and 18.5% decrease in RTC, respectively. Finally, considering knowledge, attitude and practice of drivers in one model to assess their mutual effect, it was shown that only attitude is significantly associated with a decrease of RTC (OR = 0.76, P = 0.007).

Conclusion

Increase in attitude and practice accompanied with decreased number of RTCs in Iranian drivers. Specifically, drivers’ attitude had the crucial effect. It is not knowledge and standard traffic education; rather it is how such education is registered as an attitude that translates what is being learned into actions. Without safer attitude, even safer self-reported practice will not result in lower RTCs.     

Injury patterns in frontal crashes: The association between knee-thigh-hip (KTH) and serious intra-abdominal injury

Safety belts protect occupants in frontal impacts by reducing occupant deceleration and preventing the occupant from hitting interior vehicle components likely to cause injury. However, occupants moving forward during the impact may contact the safety belt webbing across their chest and abdomen. We hypothesized that if the occupant loaded their knee-thigh-hip (KTH) region with enough force to result in injury to this region—it might prevent compression (and injury) of their abdomen by the safety belt. Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) data were used to test the association between KTH and intra-abdominal injury related to safety belts. Odds ratios with 95% confidence limits (CL) and logistic regression models were used to assess statistical significance. Analyses were based on 706 CIREN adult, front seat occupants using their safety belt and injured in frontal crashes. Occupants with KTH injury were four times less likely (adjusted odds ratio = 0.25, 95% CL 0.10, 0.62) to have concomitant serious intra-abdominal injury caused by the safety belt. Although safety belts save lives and prevent serious injury, some occupants may sustain serious intra-abdominal injury when the abdomen is loaded by the safety belt during a frontal impact. These results may be useful to motor vehicle manufacturers and others who design and test motor vehicle safety systems.     

A simulator study on the impact of traffic calming measures in urban areas on driving behavior and workload

This study examined the impact of traffic calming measures (TCM) on major roads in rural and urban areas. More specifically we investigated the effect of gate constructions located at the entrance of the urban area and horizontal curves within the urban area on driving behavior and workload. Forty-six participants completed a 34 km test-drive on a driving simulator with eight thoroughfare configurations, i.e., 2 (curves: present, absent) × 2 (gates: present, absent) × 2 (peripheral detection task (PDT): present, absent) in a within-subject design.     

Declines in fatal crashes of older drivers: changes in crash risk and survivability

Objectives

Previous research has found that older driver fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver declined substantially in the United States during 1997–2006 and declined much faster than the rate for middle-age drivers. The current study examined whether the larger-than-expected decline for older drivers extended to nonfatal crashes and whether the decline in fatal crash risk reflects lower likelihood of crashing or an improvement in survivability of the crashes that occur.

Methods

Trends in the rates of passenger vehicle crash involvements per 100,000 licensed drivers for drivers 70 and older (older drivers) were compared with trends for drivers ages 35–54 (middle-age drivers). Fatal crash information was obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System for years 1997–2008, and nonfatal crash information was obtained from 13 states with good reporting information for years 1997–2005. Analysis of covariance models compared trends in annual crash rates for older drivers relative to rates for middle-age drivers. Differences in crash survivability were measured in terms of the odds of fatality given a crash each year, and the historical trends for older versus middle-age drivers were compared.

Results

Fatal crash involvement rates declined for older and middle-age drivers during 1997–2008 (1997–2005 for the 13 state subsample), but the decline for drivers 70 and older far exceeded the decline for drivers ages 35–54 (37 versus 23 percent, nationally; 22 versus 1 percent, 13 states). Nonfatal injury crash involvement rates showed similarly larger-than-expected declines for older drivers in the 13 state subsample, but the differences were smaller and not statistically significant (27 percent reduction for older drivers versus 16 percent for middle-age drivers). Property-damage-only crash involvement rates declined for older drivers (10 percent) but increased for middle-age drivers (1 percent). In 1997, older drivers were 3.5 times more likely than middle-age drivers to die in police-reported crashes (6.2 versus 1.8 deaths per 1000 crashes), but this difference was reduced during the 9-year study period to 2.9 times, as the rate of older drivers dying in a crash declined (5.5 deaths per 1000 crashes in 2005) and the death risk remained relatively stable for middle-age drivers.

Conclusions

Contrary to expectations based on increased licensure and travel by older drivers, their fatal crash risk has declined during the past decade and has declined at a faster rate than for middle-age drivers. The decreased risk for older drivers appears to extend not only to nonfatal injury crashes but also to property-damage-only crashes, at least as reported to police in the 13 states included in the nonfatal injury analysis. Although insurance collision data suggest that overall crash risk of older drivers may not be changing relative to middle-age drivers, the current analysis indicates that the reduced fatality risk of older drivers reflects both less likelihood of being involved in a police-reported crash and greater likelihood that they will survive when they do crash.     

Factors affecting pelvic and thoracic forces in near-side impact crashes: a study of US-NCAP, NASS, and CIREN data

The goal of this study was to identify variables related to vehicle design which are associated with pelvic and thoracic accelerations as measured by the driver's (near side) crash dummy during new car assessment program (NCAP) testing of motor vehicles. Vehicle specific parameters were analyzed using NCAP side impact test results. Data from national automotive sampling system, crashworthiness data system (NASS-CDS) and crash injury research and engineering network (CIREN) (both National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) injury databases) were assessed to confirm NCAP test observations. In addition, door armrest stiffness measurements were performed using a mechanical tester on a sample of 40 vehicles. NCAP data showed that of 10 variables tested using multiple linear regression, vehicle weight and door crush correlated with pelvic acceleration of the driver's crash dummy (overall, r2=0.58, p=0.002, n=165). For thoracic trauma index (TTI) vehicle weight and peak door velocity correlated, significantly (overall, r2=0.41, p=0.03, n=165). Mean TTI was 63.7 g with no side airbag (n=108) and 55.6 g with a thoracic side airbag (n=54), p=0.01. The mean vehicle weight and door crush between airbag and no airbag groups were not significantly different. NASS-CDS data demonstrated a direct relationship between increased door crush and increased abbreviated injury score (AIS). CIREN data showed that occupants who sustained pelvic injuries had a median AIS of 3 with 24.9 cm of door crush, with abdominal injuries, a median AIS of 3 and 30 cm of crush, and with thoracic injuries, a median AIS of 4 and 34 cm of door crush. In addition, the frequency of bilateral pelvic injuries was significantly higher for subjects in CIREN crashes who were in a vehicle with a center console, but only if door intrusion was greater than 15 cm. This information may be useful in design of vehicles with greater protection in side impact crashes.     

Patterns of driver stress and coping strategies in a Greek sample and their relationship to aberrant behaviors and traffic accidents

This paper presents an investigation into the relationship between driver stress, coping strategies and aberrant driving of a Greek sample of company employees (N=714). The results supported the main factor structures of the Driver Behavior Inventory (Matthews, G., Tsuda, A., Xin, G., Ozeki, Y., 1999. Individual differences in driver stress vulnerability in a Japanese sample. Ergonomics 42, 401-415) and Driver Behavior Questionnaire (Kontogiannis, T., Kossiavelou, Z., Marmaras, N., 2002. Self-reports of aberrant behavior on the roads: errors and violations in a sample of Greek drivers. Accident Anal. Prev. 34, 391-399). An inventory of coping strategies was also examined in terms of self reports. Confrontive coping was characteristic of drivers high on aggression who also had higher rates of mistakes and violations. Coping in terms of self-criticism was exhibited by drivers high on dislike of driving (i.e., anxiety) who reported a higher incidence of mistakes. Task-focus coping was characteristic of alertness and had a weak correlation with confidence. Drivers high in confidence reported fewer mistakes and violations which, in association with low perception of risk, was a particularly worrying aspect of driving. A contextual model of accident involvement was tested with LISREL in which violations yielded a direct effect whilst aggression yielded an indirect effect mediated by violations. Alertness and confidence were both related to safety orientation but failed to predict accident rates and speeding convictions.     

Pedestrian Crosswalk Law: A study of traffic and trajectory factors that affect non-compliance and stopping distance

Walking is encouraged by many transportation agencies as a sustainable mode that contributes to livable downtowns. Since pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users, safe and comfortable crosswalks are essential to ensure that pedestrian travel becomes an appealing alternative. In this context, the goal of this research is to study the traffic and vehicle trajectory factors that affect crosswalk law compliance and stopping distance from the crosswalk. The results of this research provide new insights into the relationships between traffic conditions, vehicle trajectory, and compliance rates. Results indicate that vehicle origin, vehicle type, stopping at upstream traffic lights, and changes in vehicle speed and headways are key factors to predict pedestrian crosswalk law compliance and stopping behavior; changes in vehicle speed and headways have the highest explanatory power.     

Characteristics of traffic crashes in Maryland (1996-1998): differences among the youngest drivers

Motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) are the leading cause of death among teenagers in the US. The present study examines how crash rates and crash characteristics differed among drivers aged 16-21 in the state of Maryland from 1996 to 1998. The results show that, based on police reports. the youngest drivers have the highest rate of MVCs per licensed driver and per annual miles driven. Furthermore, crash characteristics suggest that inexperience rather than risky driving may account for the differing rates. Drivers closer to the age of 16 had their crashes under the safest conditions: during the day in clear weather while drinking less.     

Decision making and personality in traffic offenders: a study of Israeli drivers

Traffic offences present danger to the offender, and to others. This study examines differences in decision making and personality between traffic offenders and non-offenders. Fifty-one traffic offenders participating in penalty courses were compared to a control group of 36 drivers who were not penalized for traffic offences in the 5 years prior to the study. All participants performed the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a popular decision task employed for assessing cognitive impulsivity, and completed the "big five" personality questionnaire. The results showed that traffic offenders made fewer advantageous choices on the IGT; and an analysis with a formal cognitive model, the Expectancy Valance model, suggests that this results from offenders' high weighting of gains compared to losses. An examination of personality factors reveals that traffic offenders were more extraverted. The predictive power of IGT performance was comparable to that of the personality factor. These results demonstrate that the IGT can be useful for studying individual differences in risk taking in a real-world task, and combined with the EV model, identify the sources of these differences.     

Comparing single vehicle and multivehicle fatal road crashes: A joint analysis of road conditions,time variables and driver characteristics

The difference between single vehicle crashes and multivehicle crashes was investigated in a collection of fatal crashes from six European countries. Variables with respect to road conditions, time variables, and participant characteristics were studied separately at first and then jointly in a logistic multiple regression model allowing to weigh different accounts of single vehicle as opposed to multivehicle crash occurrence.     

The effects of studded tires on fatal crashes with passenger cars and the benefits of electronic stability control (ESC) in Swedish winter driving

This study set out to examine the effects of studded tires on fatal crashes on roads covered with ice or snow in Sweden and also to investigate the extra benefits of electronic stability control (ESC) during the winter months. Two different studies are presented in this paper. Both studies used an induced exposure approach. In the main study, 369 in-depth studies of fatal crashes with passenger cars were analyzed to determine whether loss-of-control (LOC) had been a major component or not. Only crashes involving cars without ESC and equipped with approved studded or non-studded winter tires were analyzed. The additional study used police-reported crashes that occurred during the winter seasons 2003–2010, involving passenger cars with and without ESC. While police records in Sweden do not include any tire information, it was assumed that most cars involved in crashes during the winter period would be equipped with studded tires.     

An AHP-based multi-criteria model for assessment of the social sustainability of technology management process: A case study in banking industry

The abrupt development of technology has confronted different industries' managers with crucial decision points. The scope of their decisions' impact goes beyond their companies' borders. Sustainable assessment of technology investigates the economic, environmental, and social effects of technologies on firms and their environment. Nonetheless, the technology management process includes different steps (such as technology acquisition and exploitation) which need a comprehensive decision-making tool toward sustainable development targets. This paper aims to propose an integrated decision-making model to investigate the social sustainability of the technology management process. Considering three main steps of the technology management process (technology selection, technology acquisition, and technology exploitation), we constructed our model utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as one of the most popular decision-making tools. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the model, we implemented it for E-banking technologies in one of the oldest banks of Iran (Iran's AgriBank). The results indicated that internet banking, internal R&D, and internal exploitation are the best decision alternatives among the technology management process from the social sustainability perspective. The results were validated by calculating the Consistency Rate (CR) and performing scenario-based sensitivity analysis.