Complex dynamics of our economic life on different scales: insights from search engine query data

Search engine query data deliver insight into the behaviour of individuals who are the smallest possible scale of our economic life. Individuals are submitting several hundred million search engine queries around the world each day. We study weekly search volume data for various search terms from 2004 to 2010 that are offered by the search engine Google for scientific use, providing information about our economic life on an aggregated collective level. We ask the question whether there is a link between search volume data and financial market fluctuations on a weekly time scale. Both collective 'swarm intelligence' of Internet users and the group of financial market participants can be regarded as a complex system of many interacting subunits that react quickly to external changes. We find clear evidence that weekly transaction volumes of S&P 500 companies are correlated with weekly search volume of corresponding company names. Furthermore, we apply a recently introduced method for quantifying complex correlations in time series with which we find a clear tendency that search volume time series and transaction volume time series show recurring patterns.     

A behavioral comparison between motorcyclists and a matched group of non-motorcycling car drivers: factors influencing accident risk

Motorcyclists and a matched group of non-motorcycling car drivers were assessed on behavioral measures known to relate to accident involvement. Using a range of laboratory measures, we found that motorcyclists chose faster speeds than the car drivers, overtook more, and pulled into smaller gaps in traffic, though they did not travel any closer to the vehicle in front. The speed and following distance findings were replicated by two further studies involving unobtrusive roadside observation. We suggest that the increased risk-taking behavior of motorcyclists was only likely to account for a small proportion of the difference in accident risk between motorcyclists and car drivers. A second group of motorcyclists was asked to complete the simulator tests as if driving a car. They did not differ from the non-motorcycling car drivers on the risk-taking measures but were better at hazard perception. There were also no differences for sensation seeking, mild social deviance, and attitudes to riding/driving, indicating that the risk-taking tendencies of motorcyclists did not transfer beyond motorcycling, while their hazard perception skill did.     

Injury and risk-taking behavior-a systematic review

There is a substantial body of work in the scientific literature discussing the role of risk-taking behavior in the causation of injury. Despite the quantity of diverse writings on the subject most is in the form of theoretical commentaries. This review was conducted to critically assess the empirical evidence supporting the association between injury and risk-taking behavior. The review found six case-control studies and one retrospective cohort study, which met all the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis was not possible due to the diversity of the independent and outcome variables in each of the studies reviewed. Overall the review found that risk-taking behavior, however it is measured, is associated with an increased chance of sustaining an injury except in the case of high skilled, risk-taking sports where the effect may be in the other direction. Drawing specific conclusions from the research presented in this review is difficult without an agreed conceptual framework for examining risk-taking behavior and injury. Considerable work needs to be done to provide a convincing evidence base on which to build public health interventions around risk behavior. However, sufficient evidence exists to suggest that effort in this area may be beneficial for the health of the community.     

Integrated supply chain risk management via operational methods and financial instruments

Supply chain risk management (SCRM) is an emerging field that generally lacks integrative approaches across different disciplines. This study contributes to narrowing this gap by developing an integrated approach to SCRM using operational methods and financial instruments. We study a supply chain composed of an aluminium can supplier, a brewery and a distributor. The supply chain is exposed to aluminium price fluctuation and beer demand uncertainty. A stochastic optimisation model is developed for managing operational and financial risks along the supply chain. Using this model as a base, we compare the performance of an integrated risk management model (under which operational and financial risk management decisions are made simultaneously) to a sequential model (under which the financial risk management decisions are made after the operational risk management decisions are finalised). Through simulation-based optimisation and using experimental designs and statistical analyses, we analyse the performance of the two models in minimising the expected total opportunity cost of the supply chain. We examine the supply chain performance as a function of three factors, each at three levels: risk aversion, demand variability and aluminium price volatility. We find that the integrated model outperforms the sequential model in most but not in all cases. Furthermore, while the results indicate that the supply chain improves its performance by being less risk averse, there exists a threshold beyond which accepting a higher risk level is not justified. Managerial insights are provided for various business scenarios experimented with.     

Reliability: How much is it worth? Beyond its estimation or prediction, the (net) present value of reliability

In this article, we link an engineering concept, reliability, to a financial and managerial concept, net present value, by exploring the impact of a system's reliability on its revenue generation capability. The framework here developed for non-repairable systems quantitatively captures the value of reliability from a financial standpoint. We show that traditional present value calculations of engineering systems do not account for system reliability, thus over-estimate a system's worth and can therefore lead to flawed investment decisions. It is therefore important to involve reliability engineers upfront before investment decisions are made in technical systems. In addition, the analyses here developed help designers identify the optimal level of reliability that maximizes a system's net present value—the financial value reliability provides to the system minus the cost to achieve this level of reliability. Although we recognize that there are numerous considerations driving the specification of an engineering system's reliability, we contend that the financial analysis of reliability here developed should be made available to decision-makers to support in part, or at least be factored into, the system reliability specification.     

Superstition,risk-taking and risk perception of accidents among South African taxi drivers

The aim of this study was to investigate taxi drivers' superstition and risk perception of accidents as well as risk-taking in an urban area in South Africa. One hundred and thirty drivers of minibuses, so-called "taxis" were interviewed on the basis of: (1) a superstition scale; (2) a risk-taking scale; (3) a list of perceived causes of road traffic accidents. Drivers showed largely superstitious attitudes and expressed a high degree of risk-taking behavior.Superstition was positively correlated with the number of self-reported accidents the drivers had been involved in and the number of accidents they had witnessed. Path analysis revealed a direct path from superstition to accident involvement while the influence of formal education was negligible. Risk-taking was inversely correlated with driving experience and the number of accidents witnessed but not so with the number of accidents involved in. There was no clear pattern of associations between superstition and risk-taking and perceived causes of accidents. Superstition and risk-taking were slightly and inversely correlated with each other. It is concluded that superstition represents an attitude that is associated with a driver's accident risk, and further research on superstitious attitudes among South African drivers is advocated.     

Alcohol/drug abuse, driving convictions, and risk-taking dispositions among trauma center patients

The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between alcohol/drug abuse diagnoses, driving convictions (speeding, reckless driving, impaired driving, license violations), and risk-taking dispositions among a series of injured drivers admitted to a trauma center. The driving records of 778 patients were linked to diagnoses of psychoactive substance use disorders (PSUDs), admission blood alcohol concentration (BAC), mode of injury, and results of a risk-taking disposition survey. Twenty-nine percent of patients had one or more convictions in the 3 years before injury. Types of violation were not related to mode of injury. Although there was a positive association between prior impaired-driving convictions, current alcohol dependence, and a BAC+ status, a consistent pattern relative to other violations, PSUDs, and BAC status was not apparent. Risk-taking disposition scale scores indicated that patients without PSUDs and without convictions tended toward less risk-taking behavior than patients with PSUDs and with convictions. The complex inter-relationships between PSUDs, risk-taking dispositions, and being convicted of driving dangerously require additional study so that intervention programs and injury prevention initiatives can be targeted effectively.     

Beyond general behavioral theories: Structural discrepancy in young motorcyclist's risky driving behavior and its policy implications

While many studies examine the mean score differences of psychological determinants between heterogeneous driver groups, this study reveals a structural discrepancy in a causal behavioral framework. Using young motorcyclists (ages 18–28) as subjects, this study investigates the various roles of key influential factors in determining risky driving behavior. Multi-group analysis of structural equation modeling shows that age and gender are two factors that can effectively distinguish heterogeneous driver groups exhibiting different decision-making mechanisms in shaping their risky driving behaviors. When encountering undesirable traffic conditions, road rage can immediately increase male motorcyclists’ intentions to engage in risky driving behaviors; on the other hand, young female motorcyclists further calculate their perceived risk to determine whether to engage in risky driving behaviors. This result shows that there is a significant link between risk perception and traffic condition awareness for experienced drivers (ages 25–28), but not for younger drivers (ages 18–24). This finding shows that while well-developed theories such as planned behavior and risk homeostasis provide general frameworks to explain risky driving behavior, heterogeneous driver groups may exhibit structural discrepancies that reflect their various decision-making mechanisms. This suggests that, in addition to mean differences, understanding structural discrepancies among heterogeneous groups could help researchers identify effective intervention strategies.     

Corporate governance impact on banking risk

This study aims to determine the relationship between several factors of governance and the level of risk in 10 Tunisian banks during an analysis period of eight years. We propose an important empirical question and examine the internal mechanisms of governance aimed at reducing financial risks. This estimation is based on a model with a single equation that examines variables relative to governance and credit risk to determine their impact on banking financials. Results demonstrate that the internal mechanisms of governance present diverging effects on the financial risk of the Tunisian banks in our case study (i.e., credit risk). Moreover, making applications work by putting together a process and model for banking risk is important. This model can be applied in any bank, and the results can be used to make decisions in real time.     

Driving under the influence of distraction: Examining dissociations between risk perception and engagement in distracted driving

Driving while distracted is a critical and unwavering problem in the United States leading to numerous injuries and fatalities each year. While increasing legislation and developing technological interventions strive to ensure we only focus on driving, individuals still drive distracted. We surveyed college-aged adults to examine the factors that influence both their risk perception of driving while distracted and how often they engage in distracting activities and situations while driving. We found a disassociation between individuals’ perception of driving distraction risk and their engagement with the distraction. Exposure, perceived knowledge of risks, fairness beliefs, and ratings of perceived visual and cognitive demands was associated with risk perception. Conversely, risk-seeking traits, how voluntary the task was perceived, and previous exposure to a distraction influenced engagement. Overall, we recommend additional research focusing on factors that predict engagement in driver distraction rather than perceived risk alone.     

Perceived risk as a determinant of driver behavior

Decision skill appears to be the most error-prone component of the driving task. It may therefore be the prime source of road accidents. Decisions which drivers make about vehicle maneuvres appear to be largely a function of the risk they perceive in the situation. Three studies were therefore carried out to investigate drivers' risk-taking behavior.     

National Culture and International Differences in the Cost of Equity Capital

• Prior literature suggests that national culture influences many facets of business operations including corporate governance, capital structure, managerial compensation, foreign direct investment behavior and accounting systems.
• Extending this line of literature, we examine whether key aspects of national culture are also related to international differences in the cost of equity capital.
• In a cross-country sample of 32 countries during 1992–2006, we find that the cost of equity capital tends to be higher in more individualistic and less uncertainty avoiding societies consistent with their greater risk-taking orientation.
• This finding contributes to the international business and financial literature by identifying national culture as an important institutional variable influencing firms’ cost of equity capital around the world.

     

Psychosocial function of driving as predictor of risk-taking behaviour

This study examined the relation between risk-taking behaviour while driving, the psychosocial function of driving, leisure time activities, car oriented peer group interaction and educational attainment. Two thousand four hundred seventeen drivers aged 18-25, randomly selected from the Danish Driving Licence Register, participated in the study. Data was collected through a mail survey. The response rate was 60.4%. A positive significant effect on risk-taking behaviour based on the score on the psychosocial function of driving was found (p<0.001). A positive significant effect on risk-taking behaviour was also found based on driving related interaction with friends. Low structure/high impulsivity leisure time activities such as playing PC-games, doing body building and partying with friends were found to be related to increased risk-taking behaviour (p<0.01). Although risk-taking behaviour is generally condemned by society results show that risk-taking behaviour while driving can also be functional in the lives of the young drivers. Consequently, other motives than safety motives are at stake when engaging in risk-taking behaviour. Implications for preventive efforts are discussed.     

How accurately do drivers evaluate their own driving behavior? An on-road observational study

Self-assessment of driving skills became a noteworthy research subject in traffic psychology, since by knowing one's strenghts and weaknesses, drivers can take an efficient compensatory action to moderate risk and to ensure safety in hazardous environments. The current study aims to investigate drivers’ self-conception of their own driving skills and behavior in relation to expert evaluations of their actual driving, by using naturalistic and systematic observation method during actual on-road driving session and to assess the different aspects of driving via comprehensive scales sensitive to different specific aspects of driving. 19–63 years old male participants (N = 158) attended an on-road driving session lasting approximately 80 min (45 km). During the driving session, drivers’ errors and violations were recorded by an expert observer. At the end of the driving session, observers completed the driver evaluation questionnaire, while drivers completed the driving self-evaluation questionnaire and Driver Behavior Questionnaire (DBQ). Low to moderate correlations between driver and observer evaluations of driving skills and behavior, mainly on errors and violations of speed and traffic lights was found. Furthermore, the robust finding that drivers evaluate their driving performance as better than the expert was replicated. Over-positive appraisal was higher among drivers with higher error/violation score and with the ones that were evaluated by the expert as “unsafe”. We suggest that the traffic environment might be regulated by increasing feedback indicators of errors and violations, which in turn might increase the insight into driving performance. Improving self-awareness by training and feedback sessions might play a key role for reducing the probability of risk in their driving activity.     

Risky driving and lifestyles in adolescence

Several studies have shown that risky driving is especially prevalent among young drivers and recent research has pointed out that driving in adolescence should be investigated in the more general context of adolescent development. The first aim of this contribution was to analyze involvement in risky driving in a normative sample of 645 Italian adolescents, boys and girls, aged 14-17, through a self-report questionnaire. A second aim was to evaluate the association between risky driving and lifestyle, defined as involvement in other health risk behaviors and leisure activities. The main results showed that many adolescents drove cars and motorcycles without the required driving license and the most frequent offences were speeding and failure to maintain a safe braking distance. Gender and age differences were also investigated. Results concerning the association between risky driving and lifestyle showed that risky driving was not an isolated behavior. Boys who displayed risky driving practices were more likely to adopt a lifestyle characterized by high involvement in antisocial behaviors, tobacco smoking, comfort eating and time spent in non-organized activities with friends. Girls involved in risky driving were more likely to be involved in other risk-taking behaviors, antisocial behaviors and drug use.     

Cognitive impairment and driving safety

As the populations of many countries continue to age, cognitive impairment will likely become more common. Individuals with cognitive impairment pose special challenges for families, health professionals, driving safety professionals, and the larger community, particularly if these older adults depend on driving as their primary means of community mobility. It is vital that we continue to extend our knowledge about the driving behavior of individuals’ with cognitive impairment, as well as try to develop effective means of screening and assessing these individuals for fitness to drive and help facilitate their transition to non-driving when appropriate. This special issue is intended to provide researchers and practitioners an opportunity to present the most recent research findings on driving-related issues among older adults with cognitive impairment. The issue contains 11 original contributions from seven countries. The topics covered by these papers are: crash risks; screening, assessment, and fitness to drive; driving performance using a driving simulator; and driving behaviors and driving-related decisions of people with cognitive impairments.     

Acceptance of drinking and driving and alcohol-involved driving crashes in California

BackgroundAlcohol-impaired driving accounts for substantial proportion of traffic-related fatalities in the U.S. Risk perceptions for drinking and driving have been associated with various measures of drinking and driving behavior. In an effort to understand how to intervene and to better understand how risk perceptions may be shaped, this study explored whether an objective environmental-level measure (proportion of alcohol-involved driving crashes in one’s residential city) were related to individual-level perceptions and behavior.MethodsUsing data from a 2012 cross-sectional roadside survey of 1147 weekend nighttime drivers in California, individual-level self-reported acceptance of drinking and driving and past-year drinking and driving were merged with traffic crash data using respondent ZIP codes. Population average logistic regression modeling was conducted for the odds of acceptance of drinking and driving and self-reported, past-year drinking and driving.ResultsA non-linear relationship between city-level alcohol-involved traffic crashes and individual-level acceptance of drinking and driving was found. Acceptance of drinking and driving did not mediate the relationship between the proportion of alcohol-involved traffic crashes and self-reported drinking and driving behavior. However, it was directly related to behavior among those most likely to drink outside the home.DiscussionThe present study surveys a particularly relevant population and is one of few drinking and driving studies to evaluate the relationship between an objective environmental-level crash risk measure and individual-level risk perceptions. In communities with both low and high proportions of alcohol-involved traffic crashes there was low acceptance of drinking and driving. This may mean that in communities with low proportions of crashes, citizens have less permissive norms around drinking and driving, whereas in communities with a high proportion of crashes, the incidence of these crashes may serve as an environmental cue which informs drinking and driving perceptions. Perceptual information on traffic safety can be used to identify places where people may be at greater risk for drinking and driving. Community-level traffic fatalities may be a salient cue for tailoring risk communication.     

The association between driving anger and driving outcomes: A meta-analysis of evidence from the past twenty years

Through the use of meta-analysis, this study investigated the relationships between driving anger and five types of driving outcomes (aggressive driving, risky driving, driving errors, near misses and accidents). The moderating effects of three variables (age, study publication year, and participants’ country of origin) on these relationships were also examined. A total of 51 studies published over the past two decades met the inclusion criteria for the meta-analysis. The results showed that driving anger significantly predicted all three types of aberrant driving, with zero-order correlations of 0.312, 0.243, and 0.179 with aggressive driving, risky driving and driving errors, respectively. The correlations between driving anger and accident-related conditions, though at relatively weaker levels, were still statistically significant. Tests for effects of the moderating variables suggested that driving anger was a stronger predictor of risky driving among young drivers than among old drivers. Also, the anger–aggression association was found to decrease over time and vary across countries. The implications of the results and the directions for future research are discussed.     

The effect of crash experience on changes in risk taking among urban and rural young people

A 20-month prospective study was conducted to investigate the effect of motorcycle crash experience on changes in risk taking among 2514 urban and 2304 rural students in Taiwan. Risk taking was assessed using a 14-item self-administered questionnaire at the beginning and end of the study. A risk-taking score for each student at the initial and the last follow-up assessments was generated from adding up points across all 14 items. For exposure variables, the study documented past motorcycle crash history at the initial assessment and collected detailed information about any motorcycle crash involvement that occurred during the study period. A general linear mixed model was applied to assess the effects of prior and recent crash involvements on the path of risk-taking behavior. The results show that at the initial assessment, students with crash experience had higher risk-taking levels than those without crash experience. However, crash experience, irregardless of whether it was measured in terms of crash history prior to the study, crash frequency, time elapsed since the last crash, or crash severity, did not significantly change the risk-taking path among students, even though its effect differed between urban and rural areas.     

A data-driven ensemble ranking system of production quality across manufacturers—A case study for risk assessment in the solar industry

In many production industries, quality assurance and risk analysis are important aspects of the procurement of products. Such analysis often takes the form of during and after production inspections performed by quality assurance companies. These inspections give insight into the quality level of each individual production batch; however, it is also often important to understand a manufacturer's overall production quality and how its quality compares to other manufacturers. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a data-driven method to rank the production quality across manufacturers. The method is based on data from quality assurance inspections and consists of three steps. In the first step, a failure mode and effects analysis is applied for each individual manufacturer. This results in a risk assessment for identified failure modes. In the second step, the risk assessments are combined to create an overall failure index for each manufacturer. Step 2 can be designed in various ways. To ensure our final ranking is robust to the selected method, in step 3 we combine all methods into a unified rank of each manufacturer. We validate our proposed ensemble ranking method using a case study from the solar industry, where we compare our final ranking with the experts’ knowledge of manufacturer quality. It is shown that our data-driven method identifies the high-risk manufacturers in accordance with experts’ knowledge.