World energy analysis: H2 now or later?

This is a study of world energy resource sustainability within the context of resource peak production dates, advanced energy use technologies in the transportation and electricity generation energy use sectors, and alternative fuel production including hydrogen. The finding causing the most concern is the projection of a peak in global conventional oil production between now and 2023. In addition, the findings indicate that the peak production date for natural gas, coal, and uranium could occur by 2050. The central question is whether oil production from non-conventional oil resources can be increased at a fast enough rate to offset declines in conventional oil production. The development of non-conventional oil production raises concerns about increased energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and water issues. Due to the emerging fossil fuel resource constraints in coming decades, this study concludes that it is prudent to begin the development of hydrogen production and distribution systems in the near-term. The hydrogen gas is to be initially used by fuel cell vehicles, which will eliminate tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions. With a lowering of H₂ production costs through the amortization of system components, H₂ can be an economic fuel source for electricity generation post-2040.     

Cost-effective CO2 emission reduction through heat,power and biofuel production from woody biomass: A spatially explicit comparison of conversion technologies

Bioenergy is regarded as cost-effective option to reduce CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Among newly developed biomass conversion technologies are biomass integrated gas combined cycle plants (BIGCC) as well as ethanol and methanol production based on woody biomass feedstock. Furthermore, bioenergy systems with carbon capture and storage (BECS) may allow negative CO₂ emissions in the future. It is still not clear which woody biomass conversion technology reduces fossil CO₂ emissions at least costs. This article presents a spatial explicit optimization model that assesses new biomass conversion technologies for fuel, heat and power production and compares them with woody pellets for heat production in Austria. The spatial distributions of biomass supply and energy demand have significant impact on the total supply costs of alternative bioenergy systems and are therefore included in the modeling process. Many model parameters that describe new bioenergy technologies are uncertain, because some of the technologies are not commercially developed yet. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to analyze model parameter uncertainty. Model results show that heat production with pellets is to be preferred over BIGCC at low carbon prices while BECS is cost-effective to reduce CO₂ emissions at higher carbon prices. Fuel production – methanol as well as ethanol – reduces less CO₂ emissions and is therefore less cost-effective in reducing CO₂ emissions.     

The Carbon-tax debate

This paper discusses recent topics related indirectly to energy production and marketing and related highly to energy policy and economy. These topics are: (1) background to carbon taxes including environmental issues — global warming and CO₂ emissions, fuel substitution and the encouragement of non-hydrocarbon fuel use; (2) climate-change convention and related conferences including those at Rio de Janeiro — objectives and achievements, and Kyoto-objectives; (3) carbon-tax proposals, including implications for oil, coal and gas: (4) The OECD view including evolution of general taxes on hydrocarbons, the carbon tax as a government revenue-raising objective, CO₂ emissions in the OECD; (5) the oil-producer's view including discrimination against oil, the impact on the incentives to use oil and gas; (6) the developing countries' view, including the need to increase fuel use for industrialisation, financial constraints on energy use, and CO₂ emissions in the developing countries.     

Uncertainty, loss aversion, and markets for energy efficiency

Increasing energy efficiency is critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, reducing oil dependence, and achieving a sustainable global energy system. The tendency of markets to neglect apparently cost-effective energy efficiency options has been called the “efficiency gap” or “energy paradox.” The market for energy efficiency in new, energy-using durable goods, however, appears to have a bias that leads to undervaluation of future energy savings relative to their expected value. This paper argues that the bias is chiefly produced by the combination of substantial uncertainty about the net value of future fuel savings and the loss aversion of typical consumers. This framework relies on the theory of context-dependent preferences. The uncertainty-loss aversion bias against energy efficiency is quantifiable, making it potentially correctible by policy measures. The welfare economics of such policies remains unresolved. Data on the costs of increased fuel economy of new passenger cars, taken from a National Research Council study, illustrate how an apparently cost-effective increase in energy efficiency would be uninteresting to loss-averse consumers.     

Should a vehicle fuel economy standard be combined with an economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions constraint? Implications for energy and climate policy in the United States

The United States has adopted fuel economy standards that require increases in the on-road efficiency of new passenger vehicles, with the goal of reducing petroleum use and (more recently) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Understanding the cost and effectiveness of fuel economy standards, alone and in combination with economy-wide policies that constrain GHG emissions, is essential to inform coordinated design of future climate and energy policy. We use a computable general equilibrium model, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, to investigate the effect of combining a fuel economy standard with an economy-wide GHG emissions constraint in the United States. First, a fuel economy standard is shown to be at least six to fourteen times less cost effective than a price instrument (fuel tax) when targeting an identical reduction in cumulative gasoline use. Second, when combined with a cap-and-trade (CAT) policy, a binding fuel economy standard increases the cost of meeting the GHG emissions constraint by forcing expensive reductions in passenger vehicle gasoline use, displacing more cost-effective abatement opportunities. Third, the impact of adding a fuel economy standard to the CAT policy depends on the availability and cost of abatement opportunities in transport—if advanced biofuels provide a cost-competitive, low carbon alternative to gasoline, the fuel economy standard does not bind and the use of low carbon fuels in passenger vehicles makes a significantly larger contribution to GHG emissions abatement relative to the case when biofuels are not available. This analysis underscores the potentially large costs of a fuel economy standard relative to alternative policies aimed at reducing petroleum use and GHG emissions. It further emphasizes the need to consider sensitivity to vehicle technology and alternative fuel availability and costs as well as economy-wide responses when forecasting the energy, environmental, and economic outcomes of policy combinations.     

Will hydrogen be competitive in Europe without tax favours?

Hydrogen is one of the alternative transport fuels expected to replace conventional oil based fuels. The paper finds that it is possible for non-fossil-based hydrogen to become the lowest cost fuel without favourable tax treatment. The order of per kilometre cost depends on performance in hydrogen production, the international oil price, and fuel taxes. At low oil prices, the highest per kilometre costs were found for non-fossil power-based hydrogen, the second highest for natural gas-based hydrogen, and the lowest for conventional fuels. At high oil prices, this ranking is reversed and non-fossil power-based hydrogen becomes the most cost competitive fuel. General fuel taxes lower the threshold at which the international oil price reverses this competitiveness order. The highest fuel tax rates applied in Europe lowers this threshold oil price considerably, whereas the lowest fuel taxes may be insufficient to make hydrogen competitive without tax favours. Alternative adjustments of the EU minimum fuel tax rates with a view to energy efficiency and CO₂-emissions are discussed.     

The feasibility,costs, and environmental implications of large-scale biomass energy

What are the feasibility, costs, and environmental implications of large-scale bioenegry? We investigate this question by developing a detailed representation of bioenergy in a global economy-wide model. We develop a scenario with a global carbon dioxide price, applied to all anthropogenic emissions except those from land use change, that rises from $25 per metric ton in 2015 to $99 in 2050. This creates market conditions favorable to biomass energy, resulting in global non-traditional bioenergy production of ~ 150 exajoules (EJ) in 2050. By comparison, in 2010, global energy production was primarily from coal (138 EJ), oil (171 EJ), and gas (106 EJ). With this policy, 2050 emissions are 42% less in our Base Policy case than our Reference case, although extending the scope of the carbon price to include emissions from land use change would reduce 2050 emissions by 52% relative to the same baseline. Our results from various policy scenarios show that lignocellulosic (LC) ethanol may become the major form of bioenergy, if its production costs fall by amounts predicted in a recent survey and ethanol blending constraints disappear by 2030; however, if its costs remain higher than expected or the ethanol blend wall continues to bind, bioelectricity and bioheat may prevail. Higher LC ethanol costs may also result in the expanded production of first-generation biofuels (ethanol from sugarcane and corn) so that they remain in the fuel mix through 2050. Deforestation occurs if emissions from land use change are not priced, although the availability of biomass residues and improvements in crop yields and conversion efficiencies mitigate pressure on land markets. As regions are linked via international agricultural markets, irrespective of the location of bioenergy production, natural forest decreases are largest in regions with the lowest barriers to deforestation. In 2050, the combination of carbon price and bioenergy production increases food prices by 3.2%–5.2%, with bioenergy accounting for 1.3%–3.5%.     

Greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the Sri Lanka power sector supply side and demand side options

Sri Lanka has had a hydropower dominated electricity generation sector for many years with a gradually decreasing percentage contribution from hydroresources. At the same time, the thermal generation share has been increasing over the years. Therefore, the expected fuel mix in the future in the large scale thermal generation system would be dominated by petroleum products and coal. This will result in a gradual increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) and other environmental emissions in the power sector and, hence, require special attention to possible mitigation measures.

This paper analyses both the supply side and demand side (DSM) options available in the Sri Lanka power sector in mitigating emissions in the sector considering the technical feasibility and potential of such options. Further, the paper examines the carbon abatement costs associated with such supply side and DSM interventions using an integrated resource planning model, which is not used in Sri Lanka at present. The sensitivities of the final generation costs and emissions to different input parameters, such as discount rates, fuel prices and capital costs, are also presented in the paper. It is concluded that while some DSM measures are economically attractive as mitigation measures, all the supply side options have a relatively high cost of mitigation, particularly in the context of GHG emission mitigation. Further it is observed that when compared with the projected price of carbon under different global carbon trading scenarios, these supply side options cannot provide economically beneficial CO₂ mitigation in countries like Sri Lanka.     

Greenhouse gas implications of using coal for transportation: Life cycle assessment of coal-to-liquids,plug-in hybrids,and hydrogen pathways

Using coal to produce transportation fuels could improve the energy security of the United States by replacing some of the demand for imported petroleum. Because of concerns regarding climate change and the high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with conventional coal use, policies to encourage pathways that utilize coal for transportation should seek to reduce GHGs compared to petroleum fuels. This paper compares the GHG emissions of coal-to-liquid (CTL) fuels to the emissions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) powered with coal-based electricity, and to the emissions of a fuel cell vehicle (FCV) that uses coal-based hydrogen. A life cycle approach is used to account for fuel cycle and use-phase emissions, as well as vehicle cycle and battery manufacturing emissions. This analysis allows policymakers to better identify benefits or disadvantages of an energy future that includes coal as a transportation fuel. We find that PHEVs could reduce vehicle life cycle GHG emissions by up to about one-half when coal with carbon capture and sequestration is used to generate the electricity used by the vehicles. On the other hand, CTL fuels and coal-based hydrogen would likely lead to significantly increased emissions compared to PHEVs and conventional vehicles using petroleum-based fuels.     

Implicit CO2 prices of fossil fuel use in Switzerland

This study aims to assess the efficiency of the fossil fuel taxation scheme currently in effect in Switzerland. To this end, the concept of implicit CO₂ prices is introduced, based on which prices for different fossil fuel uses are derived. Implicit CO₂ prices are defined as the difference between actual prices paid by consumers and efficient domestic fuel prices. Efficient domestic fuel prices, in turn, consist of private production costs, a uniform value added tax and only local external costs, not including external costs due to CO₂ emissions and global climate change.The resulting prices differ substantially, which suggests that there is considerable cost-saving potential in reducing CO₂ emissions in Switzerland. For passenger cars and air traffic, the implicit prices are negative. For these uses, higher fuel charges would therefore be beneficial from a purely domestic perspective, i.e., without considering the negative repercussions of global warming.     

Addressing uncertainty in life-cycle carbon intensity in a national low-carbon fuel standard

Policies formulated to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, such as a low-carbon fuel standard, frequently rely on life-cycle assessment (LCA) to estimate emissions, but LCA results are often highly uncertain. This study develops life-cycle models that quantitatively and qualitatively describe the uncertainty and variability in GHG emissions for both fossil fuels and ethanol and examines mechanisms to reduce those uncertainties in the policy process. Uncertainty regarding emissions from gasoline is non-negligible, with an estimated 90% confidence interval ranging from 84 to 100 g CO₂e/MJ. Emissions from biofuels have greater uncertainty. The widths of the 90% confidence intervals for corn and switchgrass ethanol are estimated to be on the order of 100 g CO₂e/MJ, and removing emissions from indirect land use change still leaves significant remaining uncertainty. Though an opt-in policy mechanism can reduce some uncertainty by incentivizing producers to self-report fuel production parameters, some important parameters, such as land use change emissions and nitrogen volatilization, cannot be accurately measured and self-reported. Low-carbon fuel policies should explicitly acknowledge, quantify, and incorporate uncertainty in life cycle emissions in order to more effectively achieve emissions reductions. Two complementary ways to incorporate this uncertainty in low carbon fuel policy design are presented.     

Performance and emissions characteristics of Jatropha oil (preheated and blends) in a direct injection compression ignition engine

The scarce and rapidly depleting conventional petroleum resources have promoted research for alternative fuels for internal combustion engines. Among various possible options, fuels derived from triglycerides (vegetable oils/animal fats) present promising “greener” substitutes for fossil fuels. Vegetable oils, due to their agricultural origin, are able to reduce net CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere along with import substitution of petroleum products. However, several operational and durability problems of using straight vegetable oils in diesel engines reported in the literature, which are because of their higher viscosity and low volatility compared to mineral diesel fuel.In the present research, experiments were designed to study the effect of reducing Jatropha oil’s viscosity by increasing the fuel temperature (using waste heat of the exhaust gases) and thereby eliminating its effect on combustion and emission characteristics of the engine. Experiments were also conducted using various blends of Jatropha oil with mineral diesel to study the effect of reduced blend viscosity on emissions and performance of diesel engine. A single cylinder, four stroke, constant speed, water cooled, direct injection diesel engine typically used in agricultural sector was used for the experiments. The acquired data were analyzed for various parameters such as thermal efficiency, brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC), smoke opacity, CO₂, CO and HC emissions. While operating the engine on Jatropha oil (preheated and blends), performance and emission parameters were found to be very close to mineral diesel for lower blend concentrations. However, for higher blend concentrations, performance and emissions were observed to be marginally inferior.     

Assessment of transport fuel taxation strategies through integration of road transport in an energy system model—the case of Sweden

Road transport is responsible for a large and growing share of CO₂ emissions in most countries. A number of new fuel‐efficient vehicle technologies and renewable transport fuels are possible alternatives to conventional options but their deployment relies strongly on different policy measures. Even though a future higher use of transport biofuels and electric vehicles is likely to increase the interaction between the transportation sector and the stationary energy system (heat, power, etc.), these systems are often analysed separately. In this study, a transport module is developed and integrated into the MARKAL_Nordic energy system model. The transport module describes a range of vehicle technologies and fuel options as well as different paths for conversion of primary energy resources into transport fuels. The integrated model is utilized to analyse the impact of transport fuel tax designs on future cost‐effective fuel and technology choices in the Swedish transportation sector, as well as the consequences of these choices on system costs and CO₂ emissions. The model, which is driven by cost‐minimization, is run to 2050 with various assumptions regarding transport fuel tax levels and tax schemes. The results stress the importance of fuel taxes to accelerate the introduction of fuel‐efficient vehicle technologies such as hybrids and plug‐in hybrids. Tax exemptions can make biofuels an economically favourable choice for vehicle users. However, due to limitations in biomass supply, a too strong policy‐focus on transport biofuels can lead to high system costs in relation to the CO₂ abatement achieved. The modelling performed indicates that the effects caused by linkages between the transportation sector and the stationary energy system can be significant and integrated approaches are thus highly relevant. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of tax reform on new car purchases in Ireland

We examine the impact of recent tax reforms in Ireland on private car transport and its greenhouse gas emissions. A carbon tax was introduced on fuels, and purchase (vehicle registration) and ownership (motor) taxes were switched from engine size to potential emissions. We use a demographic model of the car stock (by age, size, and fuel) and a car purchase model that reflects the heterogeneous distribution of mileage and usage costs across various engine sizes. The model shows a dramatic shift from petrol to diesel cars, particularly for large engines. The same pattern is observed in the latest data on car sales. This has a substantial impact on tax revenue as car owners shift to the lower tax rates. The tax burden has shifted from car ownership to car use, and that the overall tax burden on private car transport falls. As diesel engines are more fuel efficient than petrol engines, carbon dioxide emissions fall modestly or, if we consider the rebound effect of travel costs on mileage, minimally. From the perspective of the revenue, the costs per tonne of carbon dioxide avoided are (very) high.     

When do increasing carbon taxes accelerate global warming? A note on the green paradox

The “green paradox” by Hans–Werner Sinn suggests that increasing resource taxes accelerate global warming because resource owners increase near-term extraction in fear of higher future taxation. In this note we show that this effect does only occur for the specific set of carbon taxes that increase at a rate higher than the effective discount rate of the resource owners. We calculate a critical initial value for the carbon tax that leads to a decreased cumulative consumption over the entire (infinite) time horizon. Applying our formal findings to carbon taxes for several mitigation targets, we conclude that there is a low risk of a green paradox in case the regulator implements and commits to a permanently mal-adjusted tax. This remaining risk can be avoided by emissions trading scheme as suggested by Sinn—as long as the emission caps are set appropriately and the intertemporal permit market works correctly.     

Competition between biomass and food production in the presence of energy policies: a partial equilibrium analysis

Bioenergy has several advantages over fossil fuels. For example, it delivers energy at low net CO₂ emission levels and contributes to sustaining future energy supplies. The concern, however, is that an increase in biomass plantations will reduce the land available for agricultural production. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of taxing conventional electricity production or carbon use in combination with subsidizing biomass or bioelectricity production on the production of biomass and agricultural commodities and on the share of bioelectricity in total electricity production. We develop a partial equilibrium model to illustrate some of the potential impacts of these policies on greenhouse gas emissions, land reallocation and food and electricity prices. As a case study, we use data for Poland, which has a large potential for biomass production. Results show that combining a conventional electricity tax of 10% with a 25% subsidy on bioelectricity production increases the share of bioelectricity to 7.5%. Under this policy regime, biomass as well as agricultural production increase. A carbon tax that gives equal net tax yields, has better environmental results, however, at higher welfare costs and resulting in 1% to 4% reduction of agricultural production.     

Comparison of the technical potential for hydrogen,battery electric,and conventional light-duty vehicles to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and petroleum consumption in the United States

Light-duty vehicles (LDV) are responsible for a large fraction of petroleum use and are a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States. Improving conventional gasoline-powered vehicle efficiency can reduce petroleum demand, however efficiency alone cannot reach deep GHG reduction targets, such as 80% below the 1990 LDV GHG emissions level. Because the cost and availability of low-GHG fuels will impose limits on their use, significant reductions in GHG emissions will require combinations of fuel and vehicle technologies that both increase efficiency and reduce the emissions from fuel production and use. This paper examines bounding cases for the adoption of individual technologies and then explores combinations of advanced vehicle and fuel technologies. Limits on domestic biofuel production—even combined with significant conventional combustion engine vehicle improvements—mean that hydrogen fuel cell electric or battery electric vehicles fueled by low-GHG sources will be necessary. Complete electrification of the LDV fleet is not required to achieve significant GHG reduction, as replacing 40% of the LDV fleet with zero-emission hydrogen vehicles while achieving optimistic biofuel production and conventional vehicle improvements can allow attainment of a low GHG emission target. Our results show that the long time scale for vehicle turnover will ensure significant emissions from the LDV sector, even when lower emission vehicles and fuels are widely available within 15 years. Reducing petroleum consumption is comparatively less difficult, and significant savings can be achieved using efficient conventional gasoline-powered vehicles.     

This time it's different: An inevitable decline in world petroleum production will keep oil product prices high,causing military conflicts and shifting wealth and power from democracies to authoritarian regimes

There is virtual agreement among geologists that world production of conventional oil will peak at some point in the future. Oil, after all, is a finite resource, while demand will only grow over time. Geologists disagree, however, exactly when the peak will occur. Using data from the International Energy Agency, the US Department of Energy, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, and petroleum industry sources, we argue that conventional oil production will reach a worldwide maximum within the next 5–10 years, earlier than generally estimated, thus leaving a very short time frame within which to plan for conversion to alternative sources of energy. Unless planning is initiated immediately, the United States and other Western democracies will see their positions in the global economy undercut as military conflicts over limited energy resources increase, and wealth and power are shifted to authoritarian regimes in Russia, Venezuela, Africa and the Middle East.     

6BTA 5.9 G2-1 Cummins engine performance and emission tests using methyl ester mahua (Madhuca indica) oil/diesel blends

Neat mahua oil poses some problems when subjected to prolonged usage in CI engine. The transesterification of mahua oil can reduce these problems. The use of biodiesel fuel as substitute for conventional petroleum fuel in heavy-duty diesel engine is receiving an increasing amount of attention. This interest is based on the properties of bio-diesel including the fact that it is produced from a renewable resource, its biodegradability and potential to exhaust emissions. A Cummins 6BTA 5.9 G2- 1, 158 HP rated power, turbocharged, DI, water cooled diesel engine was run on diesel, methyl ester of mahua oil and its blends at constant speed of 1500 rpm under variable load conditions. The volumetric blending ratios of biodiesel with conventional diesel fuel were set at 0, 20, 40, 60, and 100. Engine performance (brake specific fuel consumption, brake specific energy consumption, thermal efficiency and exhaust gas temperature) and emissions (CO, HC and NOx) were measured to evaluate and compute the behavior of the diesel engine running on biodiesel. The results indicate that with the increase of biodiesel in the blends CO, HC reduces significantly, fuel consumption and NOx emission of biodiesel increases slightly compared with diesel. Brake specific energy consumption decreases and thermal efficiency of engine slightly increases when operating on 20% biodiesel than that operating on diesel.     

The green paradox of the economics of exhaustible resources

The green paradox states that an increasing tax on emissions of carbon dioxide, consonant with the expected increase in their marginal damages, may induce oil producers to shift their production toward the present and thereby to exacerbate the problem of climatic change. The model is based on Hotelling models of resource use that do not take the natural and technical features of oil production into account. Natural features include the decline of production through time according to a decline curve. Technical features include the requirement to sink investment in productive capacity. A model of a profit-maximizing firm indicates that, if these features are taken into account, the prediction of the green paradox is unlikely.