CO2 emission from China's energy sector and strategy for its control

This paper identifies the main features of CO₂ emission from fossil energy combustion in China. Then it estimates China's future energy requirements and projects its CO₂ emission from 2010 to 2020 based on the scenario analysis approach. China's rate of carbon productivity growth is estimated to be 5.4% in the period 2005–2020, while the CO₂ intensity of GDP will reduce by about 50% but CO₂ emission in 2020 will still be about 40% higher than prevailing in 2005 because of rapid growth of GDP. This estimation is based on the assumption that China will implement a sustainable development strategy in consideration of climate change issues. The main objectives of the strategy are to implement an “energy conservation first” strategy, to develop renewable energy and advanced nuclear technology actively, to readjust the country's economic structure, and to formulate and legislate laws and regulations, and to build institutions for energy conservation and development of renewable energy. It concludes that international measures to mitigate CO₂ emission will limit world fossil fuel consumption. China is not placed to replicate the modernization model adopted by developed countries and has to coordinate economic development and carbon dioxide emission control while still in the process of industrialization and modernization. China has to evolve a low carbon industrialization model. This is the key to the success of sustainable development initiatives in China.     

The energy situation and its sustainable development strategy in China

The paper briefly summarizes China’s energy situation and sustainable development strategy as they were by 2009. The energy consumption in 2009 is reported to be 3.1 billion tons standard coal equivalent, 1/7 of the world total, 6.3% higher than in the year 2008, and its share of world CO₂ emissions increased rapidly to 20.3% in 2006. These trends are most likely to continue with China’s plan to accomplish its social and economy development goals. To address these problems and also respond to increasing world pressure for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the Chinese government plans and has legislated promotion of energy conservation, efficiency, renewable energy technologies and use, and reduction of energy-related environmental impacts to reduce energy intensity by 20% during the 2006-2010 period, and to reduce the CO₂ emission/GDP ratio by 40-45% by 2020 relative to 2005. China is facing severe energy-related challenges that conflict resources shortages with the planned rapid economic development, energy use with the related environmental pollution, and new technology with the old production/consumption patterns. It is recognized that energy development must, however, follow a sustainable path to coordinate economy growth, social development, and environmental protection.     

Integrated energy strategy for the sustainable development of China

We propose in this paper an integrated energy strategy based on a systems approach to address the energy challenges and energy dilemma in China. First, we give a review of existing approaches to energy planning and strategic management, followed by a discussion on the major relationships among energy, economical, environmental and societal systems. Next, we present a conceptual system model with alternative solutions and clarify corresponding concepts. Based on the results, we propose, summarize, and present strategic ideas as policy implications for China’s decision makers. In conclusion, we determine that China should enhance strategic planning and regulation from a life cycle viewpoint of the whole society, prioritize energy saving, continuously improve incumbent energy, and rationally develop alternative energy.     

清洁能源发展与中国的能源战略——“首届中美清洁能源务实合作论坛”综述

该文是2009年10月在北京召开的"首届中美清洁能源务实合作论坛"的综述。文章提出中美两国清洁能源合作的基本框架,对两国未来在此领域的合作前景进行了展望,分析了一些地区在此方面的成功经验,对中国清洁能源战略布局提出了相关建议。     

The development of low-carbon vehicles in China

Reducing CO₂ emissions from vehicles in China is crucial and will significantly alleviate the environmental burden of the Earth. Some promising technologies that make possible low-carbon vehicles are reviewed in this work, including electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, hybrid vehicles, biofuels vehicles, other alternative fuel vehicles, and conventional internal combustion engine vehicles with improvement. In the short term, expanding the use of mature technologies in conventional gasoline or diesel vehicles is the most realistic, effective, and timely solution for China to meeting the urgent challenges of energy saving and greenhouse gas reduction; while in the long run biofuel is a promising candidate due to their renewability and carbon neutrality. The blueprint of low-carbon vehicles for China depends on three aspects: breakthroughs in technology, awareness of public, and government guidance.     

Path towards achieving of China's 2020 carbon emission reduction target—A discussion of low-carbon energy policies at province level

Following the announcement of the China's 2020 national target for the reduction of the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% compared with 2005 levels, Chinese provincial governments prepared to restructure provincial energy policy and plan their contribution to realizing the State reduction target.     

Growth and structural change in China's energy economy

China has been the world's most vibrant economy and its largest source of energy demand growth over the past two decades, accounting for more than one-quarter of net growth in global primary energy consumption from 1980 to 2005. To sustain economic growth and rising living standards, China needs effective policies that anticipate and shape the country's future energy requirements. In this paper, we examine China's national economic and energy accounts over the past decade for insights into changing energy use patterns and their relationship to economic structure. Our results indicate that incipient structural changes in the Chinese energy economy and sustained economic and energy demand growth in China will pose important, and different, challenges for policymakers.     

An energy development strategy for the USSR Minimizing greenhouse gas emissions

The second largest national consumer of commercial energy in the world, the USSR also emits large quantities of energy-related CO₂. This study uses four long-term scenarios of energy use and related emissions to investigate opportunities for reducing the USSR's greenhouse gas emissions over the next 30 years. This paper shows that if no measures are taken to control these emissions, CO₂ and methane will increase by 1.5 to 2 times the 1990 level by the year 2020. However, this growth can be restrained dramatically through structural changes in the Soviet economy, improved energy efficiency and interfuel substitutions. Abating emissions of carbon in the USSR would entail the widespread implementation of energy policies and, for more substantial reductions, higher investments from the Soviet economy. Achieving these goals would also require broad support from the international community.     

Spatial development of hydrogen economy in a low-carbon UK energy system

Hydrogen technologies and infrastructures might play a significant role in meeting ambitious climate and energy policy goals of the UK Government. Nonetheless, studies on hydrogen are either limited in scope in that they do not take into account the relationships with the wider energy system drivers and constraints or do not consider how a hydrogen network might develop geographically. This paper presents a framework where a spatially explicit hydrogen module is embedded in the UK MARKAL Energy System model to explore energy system trade-offs for the production, delivery and use of hydrogen at the sub-national level. A set of illustrative scenarios highlight the competitiveness of hydrogen related infrastructures and technologies as well as imported liquid hydrogen against a stringent emissions reduction target; the effect of emissions reduction trajectory on the development of hydrogen network; the intense resource competition between low carbon hydrogen production and electricity generation, and the importance of economies of scale in hydrogen supply and distribution.     

Application of energy system models for designing a low-carbon society

Rising concern about the effect of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change is pushing national governments and the international community to achieve sustainable development in an economy that is less dependent on carbon emitting activities - a vision that is usually termed a “low-carbon society” (LCS). Since the utilization of energy resources is the main source of GHG emissions, restructuring current energy systems in order to incorporate low-carbon energy technologies is essential for the realization of the LCS vision. Energy policies promoting the penetration of these technologies must view the role of energy in society as a system, composed of several energy resources, conversion technologies and energy demand sectors. The feasibility of the LCS in the future can be better understood by means of energy models. Energy models are valuable mathematical tools based on the systems approach. They have been applied to aid decision-making in energy planning, to analyze energy policies and to analyze the implications arising from the introduction of technologies. The design of the LCS requires innovative energy systems considering a trans-disciplinary approach that integrates multi-dimensional elements, related to social, economic, and environmental aspects. This paper reviews the application of energy models considering scenarios towards an LCS under the energy systems approach. The models reviewed consider the utilization of waste for energy, the penetration of clean coal technologies, transportation sector models as a sample of sectoral approaches, and models related to energy-for-development issues in rural areas of developing countries.     

Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model

This paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep CO₂ reduction targets for the UK using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG, which stands for Energy–Economy–Environment Model at the Global level. The E3MG, with the UK as one of its regions, combines a top-down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (Energy Technology subModel, ETM) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy. The ETM submodel uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering their economic, technical and environmental characteristics. Three pathway scenarios (CFH, CLC and CAM) simulate the CO₂ reduction by 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario (REF), with no reduction target. The targets are modeled as the UK contribution to an international mitigation effort, such as achieving the G8 reduction targets, which is a more realistic political framework for the UK to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone. This paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on GDP and investment.     

Energy demand and carbon emissions under different development scenarios for Shanghai,China

In this paper, Shanghai's CO₂ emissions from 1995 to 2006 were estimated following the IPCC guidelines. The energy demand and CO₂ emissions were also projected until 2020, and the CO₂ mitigation potential of the planned government policies and measures that are not yet implemented but will be enacted or adopted by the end of 2020 in Shanghai were estimated. The results show that Shanghai's total CO₂ emissions in 2006 were 184 million tons of CO₂. During 1995–2006, the annual growth rate of CO₂ emissions in Shanghai was 6.22%. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, total energy demand in Shanghai will rise to 300 million tons of coal equivalent in 2020, which is 3.91 times that of 2005. Total CO₂ emissions in 2010 and 2020 will reach 290 and 630 million tons, respectively, under the BAU scenario. Under a basic-policy (BP) scenario, total energy demand in Shanghai will be 160 million tons of coal equivalent in 2020, which is 2.06 times that of 2005. Total CO₂ emissions in 2010 and 2020 in Shanghai will be 210 and 330 million tons, respectively, 28% and 48% lower than those of the business-as-usual scenario. The results show that the currently planned energy conservation policies for the future, represented by the basic-policy scenario, have a large CO₂ mitigation potential for Shanghai.     

对低碳背景下中国能源战略的若干思考

我国能源需求仍将增长,能源安全压力仍然较大,把供应增量放在进口上风险很大。节能是个大战略,但难度和成本在增加。以煤为主的一次能源结构特征要求我国的煤炭得到高效、清洁和低碳利用。太阳能、风能等开发利用增长势头猛、潜力大,但其能源属性决定,难以担当能源供应重任。因此,必须加大改革力度、引导社会资金进入能源领域,促进能源业的可持续发展。     

Modeling the relationship between energy consumption and economy development in China

This paper investigated the empirical relationship between economy development and energy consumption by material production, nonmaterial production and household. Empirical models accounting for the key influential factors were constructed. Ordinary Least Square Regression (OLS) analysis of the official data of China for the year 1985-2007 permitted the relationship between individual energy consumption components and the corresponding coefficients to be investigated. The results showed that (1) the Unit Energy Consumption by Primary Industry (UECPI), Secondary Industry (UECSI), and Tertiary Industry (UECTI) demonstrated an inverse relationship with Gross Domestic Product (GDP); (2) a linear relationship exists between the Energy Consumption by Nonmaterial Production (ECNP) and GDP; (3) the hypotheses that there is an inverse S-shaped relationship between Unit Energy Consumption by Household (UECH) and Personal Income (PI) is valid. Based on the above findings and an analysis of China’s energy policies, suggestions on China’s energy policy were given in the end.     

中国低碳能源与环境污染控制研究现状

本文阐述了中国能源结构现状并归纳分析集中式低碳能源、分布式低碳能源与单项低碳能源研究技术进展;从大气、固废、水环境及煤矿油田角度分析了与低碳能源相关的环境污染控制研究现状;系统汇集分析了我国低碳能源与环境污染控制方面的立法、政策与保障措施;提出了中国低碳能源与环境污染控制的技术发展趋势。     

An overview of legislative and institutional approaches to China's energy development

Legislation and institutions are two important components of energy development. To better understand and improve energy development in China, a comprehensive examination of its energy legislation and institutions is essential. This paper highlights the major challenges confronting energy legislation and institutional approaches; as well, it explores possible alternatives in relation to future energy development in China. The paper concludes that shortcomings vis-a-vis structure, content, auxiliary legal documents, and clarity are the main barriers obstructing the efficacy of China's energy law systems. Lack of a unified national energy administration and the ineffectiveness of the country's energy institutions could prove major institutional hindrances to China's energy sector development. In future, the following legislative and institutional approaches should be adopted: (1) formulation of the basic energy law and specific laws should proceed without further delay; (2) the development of auxiliary legal documents should proceed without delay; (3) improving the effectiveness of energy legislation should proceed without delay; (4) setting up a unified national energy administration; and (5) enhancing institutional development.     

Carbon-neutral economy with fossil fuel-based hydrogen energy and carbon materials

Hydrocarbon fossil fuels can be considered as hydrogen ores for CO₂-free energy, and carbon ores for carbonaceous construction materials. Hydrogen fuel can be extracted from fossil fuels by decarbonization, and used as an energy resource. The carbon byproduct can be used as a versatile construction material. Carbon materials would sequester carbon, and replace CO₂-generating steel and concrete. Approximate comparison of the global consumption of energy and construction materials suggests a rough mass balance of energy and materials markets. The cost of foregoing the carbon energy content as a fuel can be easily offset by the value of the carbon-based construction material. The nature and properties of carbon materials and conventional infrastructural materials are compared.     

Reduction of energy cost and CO2 emission for the furnace using energy recovered from waste tail-gas

In this research, the waste tail gas emitted from petrochemical processes, e.g. catalytic reforming unit, catalytic cracking unit and residue desulfurization unit, was recovered and reused as a replacement of natural gas (NG). On-site experimental results show that both the flame length and orange-yellowish brightness decrease with more proportion of waste gas fuel added to the natural gas, and that the adiabatic temperature of the mixed fuel is greater than 1800 °C. A complete replacement of natural gas by the recovered waste gas fuel will save 5.8 × 10⁶ m³ of natural gas consumption, and 3.5 × 10⁴ tons of CO₂ emission annually. In addition, the reduction of residual O₂ concentration in flue gases from 4% to 3% will save 1.1 × 10⁶ m³ of natural gas consumption, reduce 43.0% of NO_x emission, and 1.3 × 10³ tons of CO₂ emission annually. Thus, from the viewpoint of the overall economics and sustainable energy policy, recovering the waste tail gas energy as an independent fuel source to replace natural gas is of great importance for saving energy, reducing CO₂ emission reduction, and lowering environmental impact.     

A survey of China's renewable energy economy

This paper surveys China's renewable energy economy, focusing particularly on renewable energy laws and programs, the lessons that can be learnt from the current literature, and the implications of that literature. Gaps in the literature on China's renewable energy economy include the need for more comprehensive econometric studies. The literature may also benefit from more collaboration between renewable energy economists and agricultural economists.     

我国能源发展战略演变及其效果评述

目前我国能源发展战略基本形成以国家能源战略、能源中长期规划纲要以及能源五年计划三个层次为主的能源战略体系和以规划为主导、相关政策和文件为辅助的政策体系。2000年以来,能源发展战略历经了以结构调整为重点、以节约能源为重点以及之后结构调整和区域协调并重三个阶段。由于缺乏国家综合能源战略,政策执行力弱,导致能源决策和规划思想相对滞后、发展思路相对狭隘。就此提出了我国能源战略管理体系的设想与建议。