Global climate change and the equity–efficiency puzzle

There is a broad consensus that the costs of abatement of global climate change can be reduced efficiently through the assignment of quota rights and through international trade in these rights. There is, however, no consensus on whether the initial assignment of emissions permits can affect the Pareto-optimal global level of abatement.This paper provides some insight into the equity–efficiency puzzle. Qualitative results are obtained from a small-scale model; then quantitative evidence of separability is obtained from MERGE, a multiregion integrated assessment model. It is shown that if all the costs of climate change can be expressed in terms of GDP losses, Pareto-efficient abatement strategies are independent of the initial allocation of emissions rights. This is the case sometimes described as ‘market damages’.If, however, different regions assign different values to nonmarket damages such as species losses, different sharing rules may affect the Pareto-optimal level of greenhouse gas abatement. Separability may then be demonstrated only in specific cases (e.g. identical welfare functions or quasi-linearity of preferences or small shares of wealth devoted to abatement).     

Industrial energy efficiency and climate change mitigation

Industry contributes directly and indirectly (through consumed electricity) about 37% of the global greenhouse gas emissions, of which over 80% is from energy use. Total energy-related emissions, which were 9.9 GtCO₂ in 2004, have grown by 65% since 1971. Even so, industry has almost continuously improved its energy efficiency over the past decades. In the near future, energy efficiency is potentially the most important and cost-effective means for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from industry. This paper discusses the potential contribution of industrial energy-efficiency technologies and policies to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030.

Energy at your service: highlighting energy usage systems in the context of energy efficiency analysis

Increasing energy efficiency has for a long time been identified as an important means of mitigating climate change. However, the full potential for technical energy efficiency has seldom been fully exploited. The traditional approach in energy systems analysis and policy is still largely supply-orientated, i.e. focusing on the management of energy conversion, production and distribution, and final use of energy in the form of energy carriers. This paper contributes to previous discussions on how to highlight and explore the user side in the analysis of energy systems in an efficiency context. The energy usage systems approach, including end-use technologies and the production of service demanded by a human activity system, is used to promote a dynamic bottom-up perspective on energy. In determining the possible potential for change by increasing energy efficiency, the demand for energy should not be considered synonymous with the demand for neither energy carriers, nor the measurable service volumes (such as kilometres travelled, square metre conditioned space, etc.), without considering the sociocultural context in which the service is being used or called upon. In summary, the predominant paradigm dealing with the energy system as a technical system managing resources and providing energy carriers should thus be complemented with the view of a socio-technical system facilitating and/or managing the services.     

An international comparison of four polycentric approaches to climate and energy governance

Drawing from work on governance, this article explores four programs and policies that respond in some way to the challenges induced by climate change and modern energy use. Relying primarily on original data collected from research interviews and field research in seven countries along with four case studies, the article notes that polycentric approaches – those that mix scales (such as local/national or national/global), mechanisms (such as subsidies, tax credits, and mandates), and actors (such as government regulators, business stakeholders, and members of civil society) – can foster equity, inclusivity, information, accountability, organizational multiplicity, and adaptability that result in the resolution of climate and energy related problems. After explaining its case selection and research methods, defining climate and energy governance, and conceptualizing polycentrism, the study explores cases related to electricity supply in Denmark, ethanol production in Brazil, small-scale renewable energy in Bangladesh, and off-grid energy use in China. It concludes by highlighting how polycentrism may enhance effective climate and energy governance, but that further research is needed to fully substantiate that claim.     

Global climate change: Implications for thailand's energy systems

An energy/environmental model has been developed to estimate Thailand's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions through the end of the National Tenth Plan (year 2011). The projection suggests that fossil-fuel consumption, not deforestation, will be the major source of emissions during 1990–2011. By the year 2011, energy-efficiency improvement measures could bring about a 14% reduction of CO₂ emissions. Any reduction beyond this level would require switches of fuel mix in the power, transportation, and industrial sectors. Fuel shifts in the power sector alone could cut emissions by up to 20% to 30%. In the longer run, Thailand should consider adopting unconventional sources of energy, as well as make use of reforestation policy to absorb future CO₂ emissions.     

Role of endogenous energy efficiency improvement in global climate change mitigation

Improving the energy efficiency of conventional energy services is an essential way to cope with global CO₂ emissions mitigation. To date, energy efficiency improvement (EEI) has been broadly introduced exogenously in integrated assessment models (IAMs) by virtue of the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) coefficient; however, it is usually good at capturing the EEI driven by non-price factors, while weak in describing the EEI induced by policy incentives. In this paper, we introduce an endogenous EEI (EEEI) mechanism in an IAM, called E3METL, to explore the impacts of EEEI on the global macro-economy, CO₂ emission paths, and timing of carbon mitigations. The results reveal that (1) introducing EEEI significantly improves gross world product (GWP) gains, and this positive effect is partly offset when carbon restriction policies are implemented; (2) R&D investment dedicated to enhance energy efficiency limits R&D expenditures for other alternative technologies, and this effect will impede the development of non-fossil technologies; (3) EEEI may perform as one of supporting factors to delay the actions of carbon reduction; moreover, the introduction of EEEI lowers the optimal carbon tax level by 7.8 % on average, as compared to the no EEEI case.     

Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a ‘u’ shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand.This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days.     

Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) changing activities in recent years shows that governance integration – both within global energy governance and between global energy and climate governance – is now happening. The IEA has broadened its portfolio to embrace the full spectrum of energy issues, including renewable energy and climate change; it has built and is expanding key partnerships with both the UN climate convention and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and it has become an authoritative advocate for the inter-related goals of a low-carbon transition and climate change mitigation. We show that these developments are not the result of a top-down plan, but have rather emerged through the Agency’s various efforts to pursue its energy-centric mandate in a fast-changing global policy environment.     

Global energy efficiency improvement in the long term: a demand- and supply-side perspective

This study assessed technical potentials for energy efficiency improvement in 2050 in a global context. The reference scenario is based on the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency 2007 edition and assumptions regarding gross domestic product developments after 2030. In the reference scenario, worldwide final energy demand almost doubles from 293 EJ in 2005 to 571 EJ in 2050 and primary energy supply increases from 439 EJ in 2005 to 867 EJ in 2050 (excluding non-energy use). It is estimated that, by exploiting the technical potential for energy efficiency improvement in energy demand sectors, this growth can be limited to 8% or 317 EJ final energy demand and 473 EJ primary energy supply in 2050. This corresponds to a potential for demand-side energy efficiency improvement of 44% in 2050, in comparison to reference energy use. In addition, a potential exists for improving energy efficiency in the transformation sector. In 2005, as much as 33% of primary energy supply is lost in the transformation and distribution of primary energy. It is estimated that this share can be reduced to 19% in 2050 by, e.g. improving energy efficiency of fossil-fired power generation (assuming no changes in the fuel mix for power generation). Including the potential for energy efficiency improvement in energy demand sectors, total primary energy supply would then decrease by 10% from 439 EJ in 2005 to 393 EJ in 2050. This contributes to a total potential for energy efficiency improvement of 55% in 2050 in comparison to reference primary energy supply.     

Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000–2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO₂ emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO₂ emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change.     

Breaking down the silos: the integration of energy efficiency, renewable energy, demand response and climate change

This paper explores the feasibility of integrating energy efficiency program evaluation with the emerging need for the evaluation of programs from different “energy cultures” (demand response, renewable energy, and climate change). The paper reviews key features and information needs of the energy cultures and critically reviews the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating these with energy efficiency program evaluation. There is a need to integrate the different policy arenas where energy efficiency, demand response, and climate change programs are developed, and there are positive signs that this integration is starting to occur.

建筑节能的基础工作--建筑气候基础数据建设

搞好建筑气候基础数据的建设是建筑节能的一项基础性工作。文章分析了在全球变暖的背景下我国气候变暖的趋势，讨论了气候持续变暖对建筑节能的影响。指出现在建筑气候基础数据已经不能满足当前建筑节能的需要，必须对数据项目的结构组成以及数据进行更新，并就完善建筑气候基础数据建设提出了建议。     

A climate responsive urban design tool: a platform to improve energy efficiency in a dry hot climate

In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, new urban developments should address the climatic conditions to improve outdoor comfort and to reduce the energy consumption of buildings. This article describes a design tool that supports climate responsive design for a dry hot climate. The approach takes the climate as an initiator for the conceptual urban form with a more energy-efficient urban morphology. The methodology relates the different passive strategies suitable for major climate conditions in MENA region (dry-hot) to design parameters that create the urban form. This parametric design approach is the basis for a tool that generates conceptual climate responsive urban forms so as to assist the urban designer early in the design process. Various conceptual scenarios, generated by a computational model, are the results of the proposed platform. A practical application of the approach is conducted on a New Urban Community in Aswan (Egypt), showing the economic feasibility of the resulting urban form and morphology, and the proposed tool.     

Negotiating energy futures The politics of energy forecasting

Over the last decade it has become increasingly clear that energy forecasts have been used for partisan purposes. Through energy models and forecasts, industrial, political and administrative interests compete for cognitive and methodological hegemony. We have termed this integration of modelling and politics the ‘scientific negotiation of energy futures’. This article presents core elements of a sociopolitical and institutional perspective with which to analyse the generation of assumptions that underlie energy models and forecasts. We focus on the factors that shape the choice of data, functional forms and modelling methodologies. We point to the filters of professional orientation and organizational structures that give every forecast an inherent cognitive bias. We stress the legitimation function of forecasts in political decision making. These factors are illustrated with a comparative analysis of energy modelling and forecasting over the last 20 years in the UK, Canada, Denmark, France, the Netherlands, Norway, the USA, and FR Germany, and a discussion of the IIASA world energy model.     

Placing barriers to industrial energy efficiency in a social context: a discussion of lifestyle categorisation

This paper compares how analyses of energy use and efficiency have developed in households and industrial small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). I focus on earlier studies that use lifestyle categories in examining household energy use, comparing them with studies of mainly Swedish industrial SMEs using the barrier concept in understanding energy efficiency. The main question is how the use of lifestyle categories in household research can be adapted to industrial SMEs. The rationale for using doing this is to find a new way to approach industrial energy use that can give new insight or raise new questions. Lifestyle categories capture the energy culture of a company, including how energy is perceived and what habits and routines are like. Lifestyle categorisation complements barrier analysis, deepening our understanding of how and why companies improve energy efficiency. Using lifestyle categories in an analysis can help policy makers, who can then direct specific policies to particular segments of companies.     

Offshore wind energy in the world context

The interest for the exploitation of the offshore wind energy is growing in Europe, where man land use is very high resulting in strong limitation to the installation of onshore wind farms. The today offshore operating wind power is 12 MW, with two wind farms in Denmark and one in Netherlands; it starts to be significant (0.6%) in terms of the onshore power, 2000 MW in Europe.In the world the onshore installed wind power is exceeding 4000 MW, but not so much up to now has been done on the offshore area outside Europe.The European four years experience on the prototypical offshore wind farms looks significantly promising and suggests to promote a similar approach in many densely populated coastal countries in the world with high electricity demand.Results of studies are presented on the offshore wind potential in the European countries and of the tentative evaluation for the Mediterranean basin, and the seas of USA and China. A review is made of the offshore applications, particularly for the Nothern European seas.Economy and environmental trends are illustrated in parallel to those of maturing offshore technology. It is suggested to prepare an action plan to promote the development of the offshore applications in the world context.     

Assessing socio-technical mindsets: Public deliberations on carbon capture and storage in the context of energy sources and climate change

The adaptation and transition to new configurations of energy systems brought on by challenges of climate change, energy security, and sustainability have encouraged more integrative approaches that bring together the social and technical dimensions of technology. The perspectives of energy systems and climate change play an important role in the development and implementation of emerging energy technologies and attendant policies on greenhouse gas reduction. This research examines citizens’ views on climate change and a number of energy systems, with a specific focus on the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a technology to address greenhouse gas emissions. An all-day workshop with 82 local participants was held in the city of Calgary in Alberta, Canada to explore the views of climate change, energy and CCS. Participants were provided the opportunity to ask experts questions and discuss in small groups their views of climate change policy and energy systems. Results demonstrate that participants’ assessments of energy systems are influenced by social–political–institutional–economic contexts such as trust in industry and government, perception of parties benefiting from the technology, and tradeoffs between energy systems. We discuss our findings in the context of understanding social learning processes as part of socio-technical systems change.     

Global challenges in energy

Environmental and security concerns are stimulating global interest in hydrogen power, renewable energy, and advanced transportation technologies, but no significant movement away from oil and a carbon-based world economy is expected soon. Over the longer-term, however, a transition from fossil fuels to a non-carbon-based economy will likely occur, affecting the type of environment future generations may encounter. Key challenges will face the world's energy industry over the next few decades to ensure a smooth transition—challenges which will require government and industry solutions beginning as early as today. This paper identifies four critical challenges in energy and the choices which will have to be made on how best to confront growing pollution caused by fossil fuels and how to facilitate an eventual revolutionary-like transition to a non-carbon-based global economy.     

The politics of US energy policy

Worldwide concern for a shift in US energy policy is well placed - the USA's per capita energy consumption is eight times the world average and three times that of the richest economies in Western Europe. President Carter saw the National Energy Plan as a vital priority for the first year of his administration, yet the US Congress, though largely agreeing with the value of the plan, has refused to endorse it. Optimism about US energy supply and the end of the recession has made the US public complacement about the need for burdensome legislation. This article analyses the political idealogies and the business attitudes underlying the Congressional statement that pr prevails over the most important elements of the NEP.     

CO2 and energy efficiency car standards in the EU in the context of a decarbonisation strategy: A model-based policy assessment

The European Union introduced CO₂ emission standards on cars as an obligation to manufacturers to reduce carbon footprint of cars in EU transportation. The car industry is already marketing low carbon emitting technologies to adjust to the 95 gCO₂/km target set for 2020. An alternative policy option is setting energy efficiency standards, measured as energy consumption per kilometre. A policy based on a long-term commitment on continuously decreasing standards and the choice of the focus between CO₂ or energy efficiency will strongly influence car technology choice. The aim of this paper is to assess these candidate policies for the EU in terms of effectiveness, costs and emission implications until 2050 on the basis of scenarios quantified using the PRIMES-TREMOVE energy economic transport model. The scenarios assume various configurations of the standards and the assessment draws on comparisons to a Reference scenario which does not strengthen standards after 2025. The analysis shows that restructuring the EU car fleet towards significant reductions of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions is affordable provided that preconditions are met regarding technology progress and development of refuelling/recharging infrastructure. CO₂ standards allow a diversified use of technologies, while efficiency standards are more “risky” favouring a single technology.