我国新能源可持续发展的思考

一我国新能源发展成绩突出近年,我国颁布实施《可再生能源法》,提出到2020年非化石能源达到能源消费15%的目标,将新能源作为七大战略性新兴产业之一。在政策扶持下,凭借资源和制造成本优势,我国迅速成长为全球新能源产业大国,实现了可再生能源技术、     

吴新雄解读“十三五”能源规划方向

正日前,在全国"十三五"能源规划工作会议上,国家发改委副主任、国家能源局局长吴新雄对"十三五"能源规划方向做详细解读。吴新雄提出,做好"十三五"能源规划,是推动能源生产和消费革命,促进能源持续健康发展的需要。目前我国非化石能源占能源消费总量的比重仅为9.8%,要实现2020年非化石能源占比15%的目标,任务还很艰巨。转变职能、简政放权以及加快建立安全、清洁、高效、可持续的现代能源     

中外非化石能源统计分析的启示

通过对世界主要国家一次能源供应构成的分析,发达国家基本上都完成了第一次和第二次能源大转换,已不存在生物质能的传统利用,煤炭占一次能源消费的比重已大大下降,石油和天然气的比重有了很大提高。核电、水电、生物质能已成为发达国家非化石能源的主体,但随着资源的日渐枯竭,今后的方向是发展风电、太阳能发电等新能源。发展中国家尚未完成第一次和第二次能源大转换,在一次能源构成中石油、天然气的比重还较低,核电、水电和生物质能的开发还有很大潜力可以发掘。因此,发达国家和发展中国家的能源发展战略是不同的,前者主要发展风电、太阳能发电,而后者应发展核电、水电和生物质能。我国提出逐步提高非化石能源的比重,完全符合我国目前能源工业的现状。我国非化石能源占一次能源消费总量的比重有不同的计算口径,应明确非化石能源的统计口径,对非化石能源进行全面统计。为了完成我国2020年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到15%的目标,应尽快把落后的能源工业改造为现代能源产业,加快完成第一次、第二次能源大转换,同时应大力鼓励增加电力进口。     

破立并举、稳扎稳打有序推进非化石能源替代

积极发展非化石能源,有序推进非化石能源替代,是我国实现碳达峰、碳中和目标的关键途径.2021年,全国非化石能源装机突破10亿千瓦,清洁电力产能进一步提升,非化石能源重点建设项目取得良好开端,电力市场建设稳步推进.本文梳理了 2021年涉及非化石能源的主要政策,总结了2021年非化石能源发展取得的主要成就,并分析我国非化...     

2018年我国非化石能源发展形势及2019年展望

本文分析了2018年我国非化石能源发展的总体形势,总结了2018年主要可再生能源政策走向,分析了可再生能源的发展趋势,对非化石能源在一次能源消费量中的比重目标进行了评估,并展望了2019年发展形势,提出了相关政策建议。     

“十二五”期间我国将重点开发利用风电

据《中国新能源网》2011年1月17日报道:在最近召开的全国能源工作会议上,能源局负责人明确指出,十二五期间,我国将争取使非化石能源在一次能源消费中的比重达到11.4%,到2020年使我国的非化石能源占一次能源比重达到15%左右,要想完成十二五目标,保障能源供给,合理控制能源消费总量的任务,我国将大力推     

碳中和背景下的脱碳方案

随着"碳中和"目标的提出,我国的能源利用方式需面临调整.首先,介绍了目前我国非化石能源比重为15％左右,到2050年我国非化石能源比重将达到70％左右.其次,指出除了提高非化石能源的利用比例,在某些难以脱碳的领域必须利用碳捕集与利用等技术实现碳减排.接着,文章对碳捕集与利用技术做了详细介绍,碳捕集技术分别包括二氧化碳燃...     

2017年我国非化石能源发展形势及展望

本文分析了2017年我国非化石能源发展形势,剖析了核电及主要可再生能源的发展趋势,评估了2017年的非化石能源在一次能源消费中所占比重。对2018年发展形势做了展望,提出了促进非化石能源发展的相关政策措施建议。     

我国可再生能源发展对策

可再生能源的开发利用是应对气候变化和满足能源需求持续增长的最现实的举措。2009年我国风电和太阳能光伏发电保持了快速发展势头,其中风电装机容量估计达到约2200×104kW,但非化石能源消费量在能源消费总量中所占的比重仍然很低。2009年,我国能源消费总量约为31×108t标煤,其中水电、核电、风电等商品化非化石能源消费量约为2.3×108t标煤,约占能源消费总量的7.4%。要完成到2020年我国非化石能源在能源消费总量中所占比例达到15%的目标,任务非常艰巨。加快开发利用可再生能源是能源发展的重要任务之一,到2020年,可再生能源开发利用总量将在2008年的基础上增加2倍以上。我国目前和今后10多年时间内,可再生能源发展的重点是水电、风电、太阳能和生物质能。加快发展我国可再生能源的举措有:①继续做好水电建设工作,促进水电持续健康发展;②有序推进风电的规模化发展,显著提高风电在电力结构中的比重;③加快推广太阳能利用技术,扩大太阳能开发利用规模;④因地制宜开发利用生物质能,提高生物质能利用的现代技术水平。     

新春寄语

<正>一元复始,岁序更新。值此辞旧迎新的日子里,《中国能源》杂志社全体员工向我国能源行业的各级领导、广大能源工作者以及所有支持和关注我国能源事业的各界朋友致以衷心地感谢!祝大家春节愉快!2013年1月23日,国务院发布《能源发展"十二五"规划》,规划提出了2015年我国能源发展的目标。能源消费总量40亿tce,用电量6.15万亿kWh,单位国内生产总值能耗比2010年下降16%,能源综合效率提高到38%。非化石能源消费比重提高到11.4%,非化石能源发电装机比重达到30%。天然气占一次能源消费比重提高到7.5%,煤炭消费比重降低到65%左右。单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2010年下降17%。能源开发利用产生的细颗粒物(PM2.5)排放强度下降30%以上等。     

How ambitious are China and India’s emissions intensity targets?

Several developing economies have announced carbon emissions targets for 2020 as part of the negotiating process for a post-Kyoto climate policy regime. China and India’s commitments are framed as reductions in the emissions intensity of the economy by 40–45% and 20–25%, respectively, between 2005 and 2020. How feasible are the proposed reductions in emissions intensity for China and India, and how do they compare with the targeted reductions in the US and the EU? In this paper, we use a stochastic frontier model of energy intensity to decompose energy intensity into the effects of input and output mix, climate, and a residual technology variable. We use the model to produce emissions projections for China and India under a number of scenarios regarding the pace of technological change and changes in the share of non-fossil energy. We find that China is likely to need to adopt ambitious carbon mitigation policies in order to achieve its stated target, and that its targeted reductions in emissions intensity are on par with those implicit in the US and EU targets. India’s target is less ambitious and might be met with only limited or even no dedicated mitigation policies.     

2010～2020年我国能源和电力发展前景分析

本文对我国2015及2020年能源、电力消费以及碳排放强度进行高中低三种情景分析。结果表明,中方案和低方案能够实现到2020年非化石能源消费占一次能源消费比重达到15%的目标,而高方案要实现该目标,必须将人均能源消费弹性系数降至0.6左右;2020年,低碳能源发电量比例有望提高至29%～43%,核电装机比例能达到5%左右;在2010～2015年期间,清洁能源发电装机增量将首次超过煤电装机增量。     

Multi-Objective Optimization for China's Power Carbon Emission Reduction by 2035

Low carbon transformation plays an important role in promoting the energy production and consumption revolution. Currently, the power sector of China still faces a series of challenges, such as the overcapacity of coal-fired power, the renewable energy consumption, the new constraints of carbon-emissions, and fragmented power planning. This study develops a multi-objective optimization model to predict the future trend of China power structure by 2035. The key factors such as network, power, load and storage are taken into account. Besides, the technical feasibility, economic rationality and social acceptable constraints are also fully considered. Through planning and optimization, the premise of low carbon transformation is to ensure the continuity of existing policies for removing inefficient assets, and the core is to develop and utilize non-fossil energy on a large scale. Specifically, the capacity of coal-fired power will be attained in the peak in 2025, and the factor will also transfer from main power supplier to main power and energy supplier. Before 2025, the clean replacement of incremental power installation will be completed. In 2035, 92% of new investment comes from non-fossil energy. The economy and competitiveness of wind power and PV(Photovoltaic) power generation are continuously increasing. By 2020, the coal-fired power and the wind power in eastern of China will be parity firstly. In 2025, the cost of PV and wind power will be the same. Furthermore, the evaluation dimension of modern power system with clean, low-carbon, safety and high efficiency are innovatively constructed, and the index system target of 2035 is quantitatively analyzed and prospected.     

Coal power overcapacity and investment bubble in China during 2015–2020

Electricity consumption growth in China has experienced radical adjustment from high speed to medium speed with the advent of new economy normal. However, the investment enthusiasm on coal power remains unabated and leads to continuous operation efficiency deterioration in recent years. In this paper, we quantify the rational capacity and potential investment of coal power in China during the 13th FYP period (2016–2020). By employing power planning model and fully considering the power sector's contribution in the 15% non-fossil primary energy supply target by 2020, we estimate that the reasonable capacity addition space of coal power ranges between 50 GW and 100 GW, depending on the expected range of demand growth. We find that if all the coal power projects submitted for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) approval were put into operation in 2020, capacity excess would reach 200 GW. Such huge overcapacity will bring forth disastrous consequences, including enormous investment waste, poor economic performance of generators and more importantly, delay of low-carbon energy transition. Finally, policy recommendations are proposed to address this issue.     

Can China achieve its 2030 energy development targets by fulfilling carbon intensity reduction commitments?

China has proposed carbon intensity targets and energy development targets for 2030. This study investigates the linkages between these targets and assesses if China can achieve its energy development targets by fulfilling its carbon reduction commitments. To this end, it quantitatively evaluates the impact of carbon emission controls on the Chinese economy using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The results show that China's carbon abatement pledge cannot guarantee achievement of all energy objectives. China is likely to reach the upper limit of its carbon intensity target in 2020 and the lower limit in 2030 if current abatement efforts are maintained. To achieve the upper limit in 2030, the carbon price will be CNY 83/tCO₂. The energy consumption target for 2020 is likely to be realized but the 2030 target is not. A more stringent price constraint on carbon emissions would be helpful to the achievement of the non-fossil energy target in 2030, but would have a limited promoting effect on natural gas development. Our results reveal the linkages between China's energy targets and carbon emission targets, which is valuable to the cost-effective dual control of energy consumption and carbon emission.     

Assessment of China's climate commitment and non-fossil energy plan towards 2020 using hybrid AIM/CGE model

China made a commitment in Copenhagen to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP from 40% to 45% compared with the 2005 level by 2020, and is determined to vigorously develop non-fossil fuels. This study analyzes the effects and impacts of policies that could help to achieve China's Copenhagen commitments with a hybrid static CGE model in which the electricity sector is disaggregated into 12 generation technologies. Four scenarios are developed, including the reference scenario A, the reference scenario B and two carbon constraint scenarios. The results show that carbon intensity in terms of GDP will fall by 30.97% between 2005 and 2020 in the reference scenario A, and will be reduced further by 7.97% if China's targeted non-fossil energy development plans can be achieved in the reference scenario B. However, the rest of the 40–45% target must be realized by other measures such as carbon constraint. It is also observed that due to carbon intensity constraints, GDP loss would be from 0.032% to 0.24% compared to the reference scenario B, and CO₂ emission reductions are due mainly to decreases in coal consumption in the electricity sector and manufacturing sector.     

中国电力工业为节能减排做出贡献——记2009年中国发电领域的十件大事

到2020年,我国非化石能源占一次能源消费比重将达到15%左右,单位GDP二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%～45%。2009年,我国电力工业特别是发电企业贯彻国家的大政方针,在发展低碳经济、节能减排方面充分体现了国家意志并有所作为。重视煤电的节能减排,努力发展常规水电、常规核电,在煤电清洁利用、第三代和第四代核电以及风电、太阳能利用方面也取得了显著成果。2009年中国发电领域的一些事件值得关注,主要包括全国发电设备容量突破8×108kW;电价调整,大用户直购电试点启动;电煤订货会一单未签,电企海外购煤;2009环评风暴;长江三峡工程竣工,中国水电装机稳居世界第一;三门核电、海阳核电开工,核电井喷式发展;甘肃酒泉千万千瓦级风电基地开工;用电量回升,发电量正增长,发电企业开始扭亏;节能减排成效显著;煤电清洁发展,华电IGCC电厂奠基。     

Regional allocation of CO2 emissions allowance over provinces in China by 2020

The mitigation efforts of China are increasingly important for meeting global climate target since the rapid economic growth of China has led to an increasing share in the world's total CO₂ emissions. This paper sets out to explore the approach for realizing China's national mitigation targets submitted to the UNFCCC as part of the Copenhagen Accord; that is, to reduce the intensity of CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020, as well as reducing the energy intensity and increasing the share of non-fossil fuel consumption, through regional allocation of emission allowance over China's provinces. Since the realization of China's mitigation target essentially represents a total amount emission allowance allocation problem, an improved zero sum gains data envelopment analysis optimization model, which could deal with the constant total amount resources allocation, is proposed in this study. By utilizing this model and based on several scenarios of China's economic growth, CO₂ emissions, and energy consumption, a new efficient emission allowance allocation scheme on provincial level for China by 2020 is proposed. The allocation results indicate that different provinces have to shoulder different mitigation burdens in terms of emission intensity reduction, energy intensity reduction, and share of non-fossil fuels increase.