高空风力发电发展现状及关键技术研究综述

高空风力发电系统(AWES)主要通过采用系留航空器在一定高度下捕获稳定的风能并将其转化为电能,具有低成本、高效率、无污染等优势,近年来受到较大关注.本文介绍了几种AWES技术的基本原理、发展历程以及应用现状,并对几种AWES技术的结构特点、发电成本等进行了分析和比较,以期为我国未来发展AWES技术提供参考.     

Assessing the suitability of wind speed probabilty distribution functions based on wind power density

Three functions have so far predominantly been used for fitting the measured wind speed probability distribution in a given location over a certain period of time, typically monthly or yearly. In the literature, it is common to fit these functions to compare which one fits the measured distribution best in a particular location. During this comparison process, parameters on which the suitability of the fit is judged are required. The parameters that are mostly used are the mean wind speed or the total wind energy output (primary parameters). It is, however, shown in the present study that one cannot judge the suitability of the functions based on the primary parameters alone. Additional parameters (secondary parameters) that complete the primary parameters are required to have a complete assessment of the fit, such as the discrepancy between the measured and fitted distributions, both for the wind speed and wind energy (that is the standard deviation of wind speed and wind energy distributions). Therefore, the secondary statistical parameters have to be known as well as the primary ones to make a judgement about the suitability of the distribution functions analysed. The primary and secondary parameters are calculated from the 12-month of measured hourly wind speed data and detailed analyses of wind speed distributions are undertaken in the present article.     

陕西省金润河北镇风电场风能资源开发评估

对陕西省宝鸡市陇县金润河北镇风电场气象条件、风功率密度、平均风速、主导风向等风能参数进行分析评价.结果表明,测风塔100m高度月平均风速、月平均风功率密度最大均出现在4月,最小均出现在8月;测风塔100m高度主导风向为SSW(南西南),主要风能方向为SSW(南西南),风电场风功率密度等级为1级.风电场安装20台2500...     

Do we really need rotor equivalent wind speed?

The use of the rotor equivalent wind speed for determination of power curves and annual energy production for wind turbines is advocated in the second edition of the IEC 61400‐12‐1 standard. This requires the measurements of wind speeds at different heights, for which remote sensing equipment is recommended in addition to meteorological masts. In this paper, we present a theoretical analysis that shows that the relevance of the rotor equivalent wind speed method depends on turbine dimensions and wind shear regime. For situations where the ratio of rotor diameter and hub height is smaller than 1.8, the rotor equivalent wind speed method is not needed if the wind shear coefficient at the location of the wind turbine has a constant value between ?0.05 and 0.4: in these cases, the rotor equivalent wind speed and the wind speed at hub height are within 1%. For complex terrains with high wind shear deviations are larger. The effect of non‐constant wind shear exponent, ie, different wind shear coefficients for lower and upper half of the rotor swept area especially at offshore conditions is limited to also about 1%.     

对福建省陆地风能资源的评估

对我国福建省福州和厦门2座城市进行了风能开发潜力的评估.基于对该地区近15年的日平均风速的统计分析,计算了各月的风能密度,拟合出了Weibull分布密度函数的特征参数.用Weibull分布密度函数预测了各月的风能密度.并与实测值进行了对比及相关性分析,结果证明了Weibull函数对实测数据有很好的拟合性,同时也表明福建省陆地风力资源的不足,对该地区风力资源的调查重点应放在沿海滩涂及浅海.     

An M‐Rice wind speed frequency distribution

Several known statistical distributions can describe wind speed data, the most commonly used being the Weibull family. In this paper, a new law, called ‘M‐Rice’, is proposed for modeling wind speed frequency distributions. Inspired by recent empirical findings that suggest the existence of some cascading process in the mesoscale range, we consider that wind speed can be described by a seasonal AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) model where the noise term is ‘multifractal’, i.e. associated with a random cascade. This leads to the distribution of wind speeds according to the M‐Rice probability distribution function, i.e. a Rice distribution multiplicatively convolved with a normal law. A comparison based on the estimation of the mean wind speed and power density values as well as on the different goodness‐of‐fit tests (the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, the Kuiper test and the quantile–quantile plot) was made between this new distribution and the Weibull distribution for 35 data sets of wind speed from the Netherlands and Corsica (France) sites. Accordingly, the M‐Rice and Weibull distributions provided comparable performances; however, the quantile–quantile plots suggest that the M‐Rice distribution provides a better fit of extreme wind speed data. Beyond these good results, our approach allows one to interpret the observed values of Weibull parameters. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新疆达坂城风电场风能资源特性分析

对新疆达坂城风电场的风能资源特性进行了详细的研究。基于在达坂城风电场实测的10m和24m高程的10min平均风速数据,分析了原始风速的分布特性。根据地表风速沿高度呈风剪指数分布的特性,计算了在各个轮毂高度上的风速分布。采用最小误差逼近算法原理,计算了风速韦布尔分布的参数以及平均风速和分布方差。通过对韦布尔分布的分析,计算了各个高度上风电场的平均风功率密度、有效平均风功率密度和可利用小时数等风能资源特性参数,为当地的风能开发提供分析基础。     

基于风速波动特征提取的超短期风速预测

针对风电场风速预测准确度不高的问题,提出一种基于风速波动特征提取的超短期风速预测方法。首先建立风速-风速变化量联合概率密度模型,分析风速的不确定性特征;根据风速波动特征,应用集合经验模态分解（EEMD）和风速分量样本熵（SampEn）值,将风速分解重组为波动量和趋势量;应用人工鱼群算法（AFSA）优化小波神经网络（WNN）进行趋势量预测;应用改进非线性自回归（INARX）神经网络对风速波动量进行预测,进而得到预测风速。通过实际风电场风速仿真预测,并与多种预测方法对比,表明该预测方法预测结果误差较小,可准确地进行超短期风速预测。     

Economic feasibility of electricity generation from wind farms: A case study

Environmental problems, population growth, and the recent energy crisis have emphasized the need for zero-emission technologies while also ensuring economic feasibility. This work presents the economic advantages of using wind energy for power generation in Iran. A theoretical model is developed, which predicts the output power under various geographical and operating conditions. The wind data (speed and direction) of 2-h interval long-term period from December 2010 to October 2015 was adopted and analyzed to evaluate the levelized costs of electricity (COE) for power generation from wind farms (Arsanjan, Lamerd, and Abadeh) for the year 2018 per time. The influence of two important geographical factors namely winds speed and air humidity on output power also was studied. The results showed that the output power increases continuously when the wind speed varies from 2.0 to 2.6 m/s probably due to the compression of air passing through the wind turbine.     

风电特性的初步研究

基于我国部分风电场的统计数据,分别利用概率分布、相关性分析对风电场的风电特性和规律进行研究。研究表明:风力发电量在全年的分布,可用三参数广义极值分布模型进行描述,风电的概率分布可以作为风电场性能的衡量指标之一,从分布情况可以得出其风电分布的大致规律;风电削峰后损失的大小以及对外部电源依赖的程度,可以作为风电场性能的另一个评价指标;日风电量之间属于微相关,风电预测需结合气象、气候、地形资料等进行。     

A simplified model for estimating the monthly performance of autonomous wind energy systems with battery storage

This paper presents a simplified algorithm to estimate the monthly performance of autonomous small-scale wind energy systems with battery storage. The novel model is drawn based on the simulation results, using eight-year long hour-by-hour measured wind speed data from five different locations throughout the world. An hourly constant load profile is used. The renewable energy simulation program (ARES) of the Cardiff School of Engineering is used. The ARES simulates the battery state of voltage (SoV) and is able to predict the system performance.The monthly performance values obtained from the simulations are plotted against increasing energy to load ratios for varying battery storage capacities to obtain performance curves. The novel method correlates the monthly system performance with the parameters of the Weibull distribution function, thus offering a universal use. The monthly performance curves are mathematically represented using a 2-parameter function. The novel method is validated by comparing the simulated performance values with those estimated from the simplified algorithm. The standard errors calculated in estimation of the system performance using the simplified algorithm are further presented for each battery capacity.     

考虑风速风向联合概率分布的风电塔筒结构风致疲劳寿命评估

针对风向对风力机塔筒疲劳产生影响的问题,基于实测数据对考虑风速风向联合概率分布的风电塔筒结构的风致疲劳寿命展开研究。首先结合甘肃安西地区37 a的实测风速风向数据,给出风速风向联合概率分布。然后利用主S-N曲线法分别对不同风向和不同风速下风力机塔架结构法兰及门洞区域的响应规律进行分析。最后考虑风速风向联合概率分布,对风电塔筒结构风致疲劳寿命展开研究。结果表明：门洞朝向与风轮朝向的夹角变化和风速的改变均对风电塔筒的风致疲劳寿命有一定影响,其中门洞朝向与风轮朝向夹角为225°时疲劳寿命最长,风速为10~14 m/s时疲劳寿命变化幅度最大;考虑风速风向联合概率分布能更准确地计算风力机结构的风致疲劳寿命,且以此为依据对门洞朝向进行调整可延长其疲劳寿命,因此建议对风电塔架进行设计时,应考虑风电场所在地区的风速风向联合概率分布。