核电厂地震概率风险评估研究综述

日本福岛核事故之后,核电厂抗震安全评估受到广泛关注。地震概率风险评估方法是核电厂抗震安全评估方法之一。该文针对地震概率风险评估方法进展做了全面综述：首先介绍核工程领域地震概率风险评估方法的发展历史;并总结核电厂地震概率风险评估方法的基本原理和研究进展;然后论述三种改进的地震概率风险评估方法：基于SMA的地震概率风险评估方法、基于性能的概率地震风险评估方法和先进的地震概率风险评估方法;最后对全文做了总结和展望。     

中国大坝安全与风险管理的现状及其战略思考

分析了中国大坝安全管理的三个发展阶段,认为中国大坝安全保障体系正在不断加强,大坝安全管理水平已经有了大幅度提高,风险理念已经在中国得到广泛接受,风险管理技术正在日益受到重视。认为在计划经济体制向市场经济体制逐步过渡中,中国的大坝安全管理还面临着巨大的挑战:如何向市场经济体制模式过渡,政府职能和大坝业主职能如何剥离,如何走上良性循环发展的道路;从管理体制、运行机制和法规建设方面提出了应对挑战的一些战略思考和建议。     

A rational quantitative optimal approach to dam safety risk reduction

The rational quantitative optimal (RQO) approach presents a robust risk evaluation model which produces a definitive result for the reduction of risk from overtopping of earth-fill dams. The model is based on principles of risk, but an analysis of a portfolio of dams provides discrete optimal results, not expressed in terms of probability. All the steps that the methodology comprises have been developed exhaustively and propose to address concerns raised by dam owners and decision-makers regarding risk-based dam safety: a transparent framework for decision-making related to public safety, which will also appeal to the technically minded portfolio manager looking for a purely quantitative procedure to assist in the decision-making process. The RQO process is applied mechanistically, not requiring judgement from the decision-maker. In so doing it addresses the concern raised by dam owners regarding the judgmental probability of risk assessment. Risk in this paper is associated with embankment dams and external erosion, which is the single largest cause of failure of these dams. Also, in the context of this article, ‘optimal' refers to maximising lives saved over a portfolio of dams under the constraint of limited resources.     

土石坝安全实时评价系统研究与开发

大坝安全管理的实时性与风险特点越来越明显,工程安全是水库防洪调度安全的基础,也是发挥大坝防洪减灾与洪水资源利用的根本保障。针对水库防洪调度实时性需求,对大坝的实时安全性进行了分析,研究提出了大坝工程安全实时评价的分析框架及系统设计要求,就工程结构的实时计算方法进行了实现,并成功应用于青山水库防洪安全调度中。     

System reliability considerations in probabilistic risk assesment of nuclear power plants

The frequencies and consequences of severe accidents at nuclear power plants are examined using a systematic procedure called probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). These accidents may be initiated by equipment malfunctions, operator errors or external initiators such as earthquakes, floods and tornadoes. It is in the case of the external events that the structural system reliability concepts are utilized. Taking the seismic risk analysis as an example, this paper discusses the different elements of the analysis — hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, systems analysis and risk quantification — and examines how the structural system reliability methods are applied. Areas requiring further investigation by the PRA analysts are indicated and the data and research needs are identified.     

Probabilistic risk analysis of building contamination

We present a general framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of building contamination. PRA provides a powerful tool for the rigorous quantification of risk in contamination of building spaces. A typical PRA starts by identifying relevant components of a system (e.g. ventilation system components, potential sources of contaminants, remediation methods) and proceeds by using available information and statistical inference to estimate the probabilities of their failure. These probabilities are then combined by means of fault-tree analyses to yield probabilistic estimates of the risk of system failure (e.g. building contamination). A sensitivity study of PRAs can identify features and potential problems that need to be addressed with the most urgency. Often PRAs are amenable to approximations, which can significantly simplify the approach. All these features of PRA are presented in this paper via a simple illustrative example, which can be built upon in further studies. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The tool presented here can be used to design and maintain adequate ventilation systems to minimize exposure of occupants to contaminants.     

A combined risk analysis approach for complex dam–levee systems

In many areas of the world, dams and levees are built to reduce the likelihood of flooding. However, if they fail, the result can be catastrophic flooding beyond what would happen if they did not exist. Therefore, understanding the risk reduced by the dam or levee, as well as any risk imposed by these flood defences is of high importance when determining the appropriate risk reduction investment strategy. This paper describes an approach for quantifying and analysing risk for complex dam–levee systems, and its application to a real case study. The basis behind such approach rely on the potential of event tree modelling to analyse risk from multiple combinations of ‘load-system response-consequence’ events, tested by the authors for a real case study. The combined approach shows how the contribution to system risk of each sub-system can be assessed. It also describes how decisions on risk mitigation measures, at the individual asset scale, can and should be informed in terms of how they impact the overall system risk.     

Risk assessment and management in underground rock engineering——an overview

This paper attempts to provide an overview of risk assessment and management practice in underground rock engineering based on a review of the international literature and some personal experience. It is noted that the terminologies used in risk assessment and management studies may vary from country to country. Probabilistic risk analysis is probably the most widely-used approach to risk assessment in rock engineering and in geotechnical engineering more broadly. It is concluded that great potential exists to augment the existing probabilistic methods by the use of Bayesian networks and decision analysis techniques to allow reasoning under uncertainty and to update probabilities, material properties and analyses as further data become available throughout the various stages of a project. Examples are given of the use of these methods in underground excavation engineering in China and elsewhere, and opportunities for their further application are identified.     

基于变形的土石坝地震易损性分析

地震易损性分析是地震风险分析的重要组成部分,可以预测结构在遭受不同等级地震荷载作用下发生各级破损的概率。土石坝在地震作用下易发生不同程度的破坏,对其进行易损性分析可以为土石坝地震风险分析及评价提供有效途径。考虑土石坝材料参数及地震动输入不确定性因素的影响,提出了基于变形的土石坝地震易损性分析方法。采用正交设计法选取材料参数样本组合,分别施加不同地震峰值加速度进行地震反应分析,基于坝顶相对沉陷破损评价指标,给出了大坝的易损性曲线。以云鹏心墙土石坝为例进行了地震易损性分析,得到大坝不同震损等级的风险概率,对土石坝地震风险评估和抗震设计优化、维修加固决策等具有重要意义和应用价值。     

某尾矿库溃坝对下游影响风险评估

近年来尾矿库溃坝事故时有发生,破坏性巨大,造成不可挽回的生命和财产损失.选取几个溃坝后对下游影响较大的参数,通过数学模拟的方法分析尾矿库溃坝形成的泥石流对下游的影响,并以申太选矿有限公司尾矿库为例进行了风险评估探讨,为企业和安监部门提供参考.     

新疆坝工技术进展

新疆有大小河流570余条,97%的河川径流形成于山区。因此,山区水库大坝建设是开发水能资源、实现水资源合理配置与有效调控的重要措施。自20世纪90年代以来,新疆的水库建设已从平原水库转入山区水库建设,筑坝材料也在当地材料坝的基础上不断改进,碾压混凝土坝、混凝土面板砂砾石堆石坝、沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝、土工膜防渗堆石坝等坝型不断涌现。结合新疆坝工建设,系统地总结了坝工技术特点和取得的主要技术创新成果,研究认为:以黏土心墙堆石坝为基础坝型,以混凝土面板砂砾石堆石坝和沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝为主要发展方向,在高寒地区、高地震区、深厚覆盖层等特殊环境和各种不良地质条件下的筑坝技术,是新疆坝工建设的显著特点。努力在坝工设计、坝基处理、施工工艺和建筑材料等关键技术取得不断进步和创新,对于提高大坝建设和运行管理的技术经济水平、安全可靠性能具有非常重要的促进作用。     

A continuous Bayesian network for earth dams' risk assessment: methodology and quantification

Dams' safety is highly important for authorities around the world. The impacts of a dam failure can be enormous. Models for investigating dam safety are required for helping decision-makers to mitigate the possible adverse consequences of flooding. A model for earth dam safety must specify clearly possible contributing factors, failure modes and potential consequences of dam failure. Probabilistic relations between variables should also be specified. Bayesian networks (BNs) have been identified as tools that would assist dam engineers on assessing risks. BNs are graphical models that facilitate the construction of a joint probability distribution. Most of the time, the variables included in a model for earth dam risk assessment involve continuous quantities. The presence of continuous random variables makes the implementation of discrete BNs difficult. An alternative to discrete BNs is the use of non-parametric continuous BNs, which will be briefly described in this article. As an example, a model for earth dams' safety in the State of Mexico will be discussed. Results regarding the quantification of conditional rank correlations through ratios of unconditional rank correlations have not been presented before and are introduced herein. While the complete application of the model for the State of Mexico is presented in an accompanying paper, here some results regarding model use are shown for demonstration purposes. The methods presented in this article can be applied for investigating risks of failure of civil infrastructures other than earth dams.     

变形场和渗流场耦合作用下的尾矿坝静力稳定性分析

对尾矿坝稳定性分析中的几种方法进行了对比，建立了能考虑塑性变形、温度、饱和度和孔隙比等对材料特性影响、土一水特性曲线并采用扩展的Mohr—Coulomb屈服准则、以屈服接近度为安全指标的尾矿坝流固耦合有限元分析模型，对龙都尾矿坝干滩面为100m和初期坝堵塞两种工况下的饱和一非饱和渗透场和变形场的耦合响应特性进行了模拟，获得坝体变形、浸润线等重要指标，以及考虑各种影响因素的屈服接近度分布，据此可直观全面地了解不同工况下坝体安全的全场信息，对尾矿坝的稳定性分析评价以及加固与维护决策具有一定的参考价值。     

A risk assessment of landscape hazards for building sites in the Front Range mountains of Colorado

Predictive spatial modelling is becoming an integral part of landscape planning. One emerging modelling approach is risk assessment. This paper illustrates the application of risk assessment techniques within a regional context for landscape planning and design, as urban development expands into mountainous building environments. The investigation examines the susceptibility of building sites in a portion of the Front Range mountains of Colorado/Wyoming to catastrophic disturbance by four landscape hazards: flooding, rockfall, fire and avalanche. A hazard rating model is applied to a portion of the Front Range, the Pingree Park vicinity, by employing geographic information system technology. We discovered that, below the tree-line, approximately 75% of the landscape contained a high risk rating and the remaining portion a moderate risk rating. This study implies that there is no long-term, safe building site in the study area. Assuming that the Pingree Park vicinity is a representative sample of the Front Range, our results would indicate that the long-term prospects for structures in the mountainous region of Colorado are not particularly promising; however, much more extensive study would be required before a definitive answer could be derived. Nevertheless, this investigation illustrates the basic principles and presents essential literature for landscape risk assessment planning.     

MCS-based response surface metamodels and optimal design of experiments for gravity dams

Deterministic seismic analysis of dam-foundation-water does not usually reflect the true behavior of the system due to presence of different epistemic uncertainties. On the other hand, the crude Monte Carlo simulation (CMCS) of such a system is computationally expensive and often practically impossible. This paper investigates the potential application of so-called design of experiments (DOE) in order to develop appropriate metamodels and present an explicit expression of dam response. More than ten DOE techniques are compared and contrasted. Accuracy of metamodels is evaluated using about 120,000 finite element simulations from CMCS. Furthermore, the application of several sampling reduction techniques (i.e. Latin Hypercube, Sobol, and Halton) is evaluated. Next, the impact of polynomial degree is studied for an actual gravity dam with five random variables. Results are generalised for 12 different dam classes where the displacements, stresses and failure modes are quantified. Last but not least, a metamodel is proposed for seismic uncertainty of gravity dam in which the dam response is estimated using different features of the input ground motions.     

Probabilistic stability analysis of earth dam slope under transient seepage using multivariate adaptive regression splines

Earth dams are widespread throughout the world and their safety has gained increasing concern from geotechnical engineering societies. Although probabilistic stability analysis approach has been widely applied to the safety assessment of geotechnical structures, few studies have been performed to investigate the effects of water level fluctuations on earth dam slope stability considering uncertainties of soil parameters. This study proposes an efficient probabilistic stability analysis approach by integrating a soft computing algorithm of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). The calibration of a MARS model generally requires a large number of training samples, which are obtained from repeated runs of deterministic seepage and slope stability analyses using the GeoStudio software. Based on the established MARS model, the earth dam slope failure probability can be conveniently evaluated. As an illustration, the proposed approach is applied to the probabilistic stability analysis of Ashigong earth dam under transient seepage. The effects of the uncertainties of soil parameters and water level fluctuation velocity on the earth dam slope failure probability are explored systematically. Results show that the MARS-based probabilistic stability analysis approach evaluates the earth slope failure probability with satisfactory accuracy and efficiency. The earth dam slope failure probability is significantly affected by the water level fluctuation velocity and the coefficient of variation of the effective friction angle.

     

Reducing risks in the investigation,design and construction of large concrete dams

An overview of the GeoSafe 2016 Symposium topic is provided using the example of large concrete dams for purposes of illustration. It is essential that the risks associated with large dams be evaluated rigorously and managed proactively at all stages of their lives so that the risk of failure remains As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP). Rock engineering features of large concrete dams that require particular attention, assessment and monitoring during the investigation, design, construction, initial filling, in-service operation, and subsequent repair and upgrade stages of the lives of concrete dams are identified and illustrated by examples from recorded experiences. A number of major concrete dam failures, including that of the St. Francis dam, California, U.S.A., in 1928, have led to significant developments in rock mechanics and rock engineering knowledge and techniques, as well as in dam design and review processes. More recent advances include a range of analytical, numerical modelling, probabilistic, reliability, failure mode and risk assessment approaches.     

An updated weight of evidence approach to the aquatic hazard assessment of Bisphenol A and the derivation a new predicted no effect concentration (Pnec) using a non-parametric methodology

An aquatic hazard assessment establishes a derived predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) below which it is assumed that aquatic organisms will not suffer adverse effects from exposure to a chemical. An aquatic hazard assessment of the endocrine disruptor Bisphenol A [BPA; 2, 2-bis (4-hydroxyphenyl) propane] was conducted using a weight of evidence approach, using the ecotoxicological endpoints of survival, growth and development and reproduction. New evidence has emerged that suggests that the aquatic system may not be sufficiently protected from adverse effects of BPA exposure at the current PNEC value of 100 μg/L. It is with this background that; 1) An aquatic hazard assessment for BPA using a weight of evidence approach, was conducted, 2) A PNEC value was derived using a non parametric hazardous concentration for 5% of the specie (HC₅) approach and, 3) The derived BPA hazard assessment values were compared to aquatic environmental concentrations for BPA to determine, sufficient protectiveness from BPA exposure for aquatic species. A total of 61 studies yielded 94 no observed effect concentration (NOEC) and a toxicity dataset, which suggests that the aquatic effects of mortality, growth and development and reproduction are most likely to occur between the concentrations of 0.0483 μg/L and 2280 μg/L. This finding is within the range for aquatic adverse estrogenic effects reported in the literature. A PNEC of 0.06 μg/L was calculated. The 95% confidence interval was found to be (0.02, 3.40) μg/L. Thus, using the weight of evidence approach based on repeated measurements of these endpoints, the results indicate that currently observed BPA concentrations in surface waters exceed this newly derived PNEC value of 0.06 μg/L. This indicates that some aquatic receptors may be at risk for adverse effects on survival, growth and development and reproduction from BPA exposure at environmentally relevant concentrations.     

Safety risk assessment of Jiangshun Suspension Bridge in design stage

This paper presents a safety risk assessment approach with a case study, where a combined analytic hierarchy process (AHP)–fuzzy clustering–Delphi (AFD) method is used for the risk assessment of the Jiangshun Suspension Bridge. Based on the engineering background and experience of the experts, the risk factors are defined. The weights of risks are analysed by the AHP method. In order to ensure the accuracy of expert assessment, the fuzzy clustering method is used to analyse the results from the experts mentioned above. Then, combined with the results of the risk weight from AHP, the risk rank of risk factors, risk hierarchies and the whole bridge scheme are worked out. This study shows that the risk rank of the Jiangshun Suspension Bridge is II, which is medium risk, and can be accepted conditionally. The AFD combined method can be used to analyse the safety risk assessment of suspension bridges, as illustrated in this study.