Risk management: moving beyond process

Software risk management is more than just another process; it is a fundamental change in the way uncertainty and decision making are viewed. More specifically, effective risk management requires obtaining functional behavior, not just following a process or having diverse sources of information. Functional behavior is often labeled the absence of dysfunctional behavior, yet eliminating dysfunctional behavior doesn't automatically result in the desired behavior. Rockwell found that they needed to go a step further and devise a plan to “coach” functional behavior. The author describes a plan to elicit the behavior “communicate risk more effectively” which Rockwell identified as a common thread among many functional behaviors. After implementing this plan we noted several improvements, including fewer surprises and crises, even on our most risky programs. Reviews are now more robust, providing more accurate pictures of each program's situation: past, present, and future. It is also easier to identify whether a program is controlling its fate or simply reacting to the world around it     

一种自适应的运动目标阴影消除新算法

精确地消除活动阴影对运动目标的影响是智能视频监控的核心任务之一,对此提出了一种基于局部纹理分析的自适应阴影消除新算法。进行了基于高斯混合模型的背景重建,并根据阴影的光学特性进行了阴影区域的预检测,得到疑似阴影区域;提出了一种新的自适应动态纹理分析方法并在此基础上实现了活动阴影的检测与消除。实验结果验证了算法的有效性和实用性。     

Improving the risk management of Type 2 diabetes mellitus in China from the perspective of social relationships

In China, Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly affecting people's health. Although many risk factors related to T2DM have been researched, the association between social relationships and risk management of T2DM in China has not been fully researched. Therefore, we obtained 2,969 valid cases from the National Chinese Medicine Clinical Research Base-Key Disease of Diabetes Mellitus Study to evaluate the role of social relationships in the risk management of T2DM. We first establish an indicators system of social relationship factors and then propose a comprehensive method that integrates subjective (analytical network process) and objective (entropy weight method) evaluations to rank the importance of the 17 social relationship factors that were the most important and commonly used. The results suggest that different social relationship factors have different effects on the risk management of T2DM. Patients and health workers should pay more attention to the high-benefit factors and thus improve the efficiency of the risk management of T2DM. These findings provided theoretical support for patients and health workers by developing the positive effects of social relationships in improving the risk management of T2DM to the fullest degree.     

Introduction to identity management risk metrics

Good metrics aggregate both objective and quantitative measures, and should be consistent, cheap to gather, and expressed as numbers. Objective measurement helps you report on past progress, forecast future scenarios, and respond to real-time events. In this paper, the author presents some identity management risk metrics that highlight the distribution, quality, affiliation, and governance of identity in a system as well as inform the decision-making process.     

Intelligent collision avoidance planning of a robot manipulator whose workspace includes moving objects

The collision avoidance problem of a robot manipulator whose workspace includes moving objects is considered in this paper. It is shown that the proposed computer simulation system can be used in a dialogue mode with a designer to check whether or not collision with obstacles is avoided and to determine the appropriate movement.     

基于动态目标位置的智能车辆动态避障控制研究

为了真实地模拟驾驶员在动态环境中避让动态障碍物的行为方式,提出了动态目标位置概念,并采用三次样条曲线作为动态避障的路径拟合曲线。以模糊逻辑为控制策略,以T-S模糊模型为控制结构,以自适应神经网络为隶属度函数的参数调整手段,设计出一种智能车辆横向运动控制器,并通过计算机仿真实现。结果表明,基于动态目标位置概念的控制器设计具有较好的控制性能,较为理想地模拟实际交通环境中车辆动态避障的特性。     

The SDRE control of mobile base cooperative manipulators: Collision free path planning and moving obstacle avoidance

This work proposes application of a state-dependent Riccati equation (SDRE) controller for wheeled mobile cooperative manipulators. Implementation of the SDRE on a wheeled mobile manipulator (WMM) considering holonomic and non-holonomic constraints is difficult and leads to instability of the system. The present study introduces a method of controlling the WMMs including: a general formulation, state-dependent coefficient parameterization, and control structure of the SDRE. Overcoming the problem of instability of the WMM resulted in control design for a system of cooperative manipulators mounted on a wheeled mobile platform. Optimal load distribution (OLD) was employed to distribute the load between the cooperative arms. The presence of obstacles and the probability of a collision between multiple robots in a workspace are the motivations behind employment of the artificial potential field (APF) approach. Two cooperative manipulators mounted on a mobile platform retrieved from Scout robot were modeled and simulated for situations such as controlling multiple mobile bases (collision avoidance), a cooperative system of manipulators, and moving obstacle avoidance. The OLD improved the load capacity, precision, and stability in motion of the cooperative system. Compatibility of the APF within the structure of the SDRE controller is another promising aspect of this research.     

Improving collision avoidance for mobile robots in partially known environments: the beam curvature method

This paper presents a new approach to obstacle avoidance for mobile robots in cluttered and unknown or partially unknown environments. The method combines a new directional method, called beam method (BM), to improve the performance of a local obstacle avoidance approach called curvature velocity method (CVM). BM calculates the best one-step heading which is used by CVM to obtain the optimal linear and angular velocities. The resulting combined technique is called beam curvature method (BCM).

Different experiments in populated and dynamic environments have proved to be very successful. The method is able to guide the robot safely and efficiently during long time periods. We present some of these results compared with other methods.     

Correction to: Interactive computations: toward risk management in interactive intelligent systems

Natural Computing - In the original publication, the Acknowledgments was published incorrectly. The correct Acknowledgments is provided in this Correction.     

基于多传感器融合的运动平台运动目标检测

基于运动平台的运动目标检测在计算机视觉等领域有着十分广阔的应用,基于单一视觉传感器平台目前很难满足实用要求。提出一种融合视觉传感器、微机电惯性传感器和距离传感器信息的运动平台运动目标检测新方法。利用惯性传感器获得的平台运动信息和距离传感器获得的场景深度信息,采用由粗到精的图像配准策略,消除背景运动影响。利用配准后的图像信息在扩展卡尔曼滤波框架下对惯性传感器信息进行修正,以达到长期稳定检测的目的。实验结果证明了方法的稳健性和有效性。     

Trace processors: moving to fourth-generation microarchitectures

This article proposes a new architecture called “trace processors”, which consist of multiple, distributed on-chip processor cores, each of which simultaneously executes a different trace. All but one core executes the traces speculatively, having used branch prediction to select traces that follow the one executing. (Although this architectural concept is similar to multiscalar processors, it does not require explicit compiler support). The authors argue that future processors will rely heavily on replication and hierarchy, and they show how their architecture exploits these concepts     

Software risk management: principles and practices

The emerging discipline of software risk management is described. It is defined as an attempt to formalize the risk-oriented correlates of success into a readily applicable set of principles and practices. Its objectives are to identify, address, and eliminate risk items before they become either threats to successful software operation or major sources of software rework. The basic concepts are set forth, and the major steps and techniques involved in software risk management are explained. Suggestions for implementing risk management are provided     

Applying impact and vulnerability analysis to risk management

Last month we looked closely at the notions of threat analysis and policy domain identification as components of the FARES (Forensic Analysis of Risks in Enterprise Systems) process. This month we move on to impact and vulnerability analysis. These two areas are among the toughest elements of the FARES process for very different reasons.     

A novel approach to software quality risk management

Software quality is very important in today's competitive business environment. It is a critical constraint on software projects. Software organizations’ major objectives are delivering products on time and achieving quality goals. Quality is directly dependent on software processes, which are inherently variable and uncertain, involving substantial risk. Managing quality risk is an important challenge. The conventional approach to quality risk management for ongoing software processes has two major deficiencies: static analytic models are used, and structured methodologies to enhance processes and improve quality are not systematically applied. This new practical method uses Six Sigma and Monte Carlo Simulation for ongoing quality risk management. DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyse, Improve, Control) is systematically applied as a tactical framework to enhance the process and improve quality. Simulation predicts quality (reliability) at the expected process end and identifies and quantifies risk. DMAIC is a verified structured methodology for systematic process and quality improvements. Monte Carlo Simulation is superior to conventional risk models. These synergetic enhancements eliminate observed deficiencies. The method has been successfully proven and applied practically on real in‐house projects. Substantial savings, quality and customer satisfaction have been achieved. An application on an internal project and obtained results are presented. The method is simplistically elaborated on a published third‐party project answering key research questions from practical perspectives. This CMMI® compliant method offers important benefits including savings, quality and customer satisfaction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improving emergency preparedness to cascading disasters: A case‐driven risk ontology modelling

With the acceleration of urbanization, cascading disaster risks (CDR) as a typical risk mode have become the main threat to cities. After experiencing several cascading disasters, such as typhoon Lekima, how to clarify the basic features of CDR and achieve risk modelling has turned to be increasingly significant for building resilient city. However, the complexity of CDR brings about the difficulty to quickly map such risk mode depending entirely on expertise. Therefore, this paper attempts to provide a CDROntology system built by concepts and relations, and make full use of the historical cases to drive the modelling of the target CDR with case‐based reasoning. Firstly, we describe the basic structure and content of CDR and give a three‐level CDROntology system with the explanation of modelling primitives. Then, taking CDROntology system as the basis, a case‐driven selection process is proposed to provide the modelling source for the target CDR. Furthermore, set covering and manual correction methods are adopted to model the evolutionary risk chain and the specific risk scenario of the target case. Finally, a case study is given to illustrate the use of CDROntology system and case‐driven method for building a predictive risk model in typhoon‐triggered cascading disasters.