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为准确评价水资源的脆弱性程度,鉴于组合赋权法精度不足等缺点,提出了基于概率论的贝叶斯公式和模糊识别耦合方法,并应用于河南省某市2013年的水资源脆弱性综合评价中。结果表明,某市2013年的水资源脆弱性评价等级为较不脆弱,与实际情况一致。改进后的贝叶斯公式和模糊识别耦合随机评价方法采用了组合赋权法和相对隶属度综合确定权重,从指标间和指标内部两个方面确定指标权重,使评价结果更加趋于合理。研究成果可为水资源管理和开发提供依据。 相似文献
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为评价江苏省河流生态健康状况,选取反映河流水生境、水生物、社会服务、水管护四个方面的11个评价指标构建评价指标体系,针对传统的基于POME的模糊综合评价模型在权重确定过程中过于主观或完全客观、评价等级确定过程中信息缺失导致结果片面的弊端,利用组合赋权法及加权平均原则加以改进,应用改进后的评价模型评价全省32条骨干河流。发现江苏省河流生态健康综合评判等级值为1.997,整体生态健康状况良好。该模型评价结果与实际情况相符,用于河流生态健康评价切实可行。 相似文献
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河流健康评价是保护河流的有效措施,通过合理的评价体系可清楚地认识到河流当前的健康状态。针对评价过程中指标权重分配问题,综合考虑主、客观权重计算,利用层次分析法、熵权法、超标倍数法与主成分分析法四种方法得到初步权重,在检验一致性后,基于一致性分析进行组合赋权,将四种赋权方法优化集合获得最终权重,并结合正态型隶属度函数得到隶属度矩阵,进行模糊综合评价,确定江苏省某河流评价结果为良,河流健康状态良好,表明基于一致性的组合赋权合理可行。 相似文献
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传统灰色聚类评价法的白化权函数覆盖范围偏小,且综合评价基于最大隶属度原则来确定,这种做法往往会忽略重要信息,因而对白化权函数作出改进并引入集对分析模型,用联系度分量代替聚类系数,发挥集对分析与灰色聚类的各自优势,运用主、客观组合赋权法确定各指标权重,建立了改进灰色聚类-SPA耦合模型,并应用于河流健康评价。结果显示,河流健康等级与现状水平一致,表明该模型适用于河流健康评价的研究。此外,根据综合评价结果,提出该河流在相关方面应加强治理与监管,逐步改善水质和保护水生生物群落的完整性。 相似文献
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将贝叶斯理论应用于抽水蓄能电站容量规划中,从技术、经济和环境角度出发,综合选取等效火电替代系数、调峰容量比、电力不足概率、节煤量和SO2排放量作为评价指标,运用秩比法和信息熵形成的组合权重法来确定各指标的权重,并以各方案中指标的最大值、最小值及两者平均值作为该指标的评级等级标准,应用贝叶斯公式构建贝叶斯评价模型推求出各方案的等级和综合评价值,并将其进行排序获得最优方案。实例应用结果表明,评价结果准确合理,具有可行性。 相似文献
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由于健康指标权重随机性会导致风电机组状态评估灵敏度降低,提出一种评估风电机组健康状态的随机组合赋权模糊评价方法。首先,通过相关性、方差、偏度等多角度分析风电场采集与监视控制系统(SCADA)数据,结合IEC61400-1标准建立机组健康状态评估指标架构,并基于随机因子优化组合权重得到赋权公式,提高评估指标层权重的准确性。其次,为充分覆盖评估指标数据劣化度,基于岭型分布函数建立健康指标劣化隶属度计算函数。结合随机组合权重和隶属度函数,构建风电机组健康状态模糊综合评价数学模型。通过分层评估风电机组健康状态指标架构,得到机组健康等级并实现故障预警。最后,对大连驼山风电场多台机组进行评估试验,结果表明:该文方法能准确评估出风电机组健康状态等级,相比组合赋权云模型方法,灵敏度提高了1.85%。 相似文献
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Sustainable development of geothermal resources is the key to prolong the commercial life of geothermal fields. This paper uses two well-known geothermal fields in China, with long histories of production, to demonstrate how sustainability can be quantitatively evaluated, and to highlight the essential differences between sustainable and non-sustainable development schemes. After examining the complex nature of sustainability evaluation, fuzzy synthetic evaluation is applied as a tool for the quantitative sustainability rating of geothermal reservoirs. The evaluation procedures include systemic criteria selection, weighing, individual criterion evaluation and finally final multi-criterion decision analysis evaluation. The sustainability of a limestone reservoir in the urban sector of Tianjin is rated rather low because of insufficient levels of water injection. On the contrary, the carbonate rock reservoirs of the Xiaotangshan geothermal field in suburban Beijing have a strong sustainability rating, mainly due to high injection rates. 相似文献
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根据车用发动机的特点和大修过程、方法,建立发动机大修质量评价体系,采用层次法研究各级评价因子的权重,介绍了专家对因子赋值的原则、标准等,示例表明,该评价体系实用有效。 相似文献
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Recent years have witnessed regained political momentum on energy efficiency and interest in establishing markets is growing. As a result, Tradable White Certificate (TWC) schemes of differing design have been implemented in Great Britain, Italy and France. Much attention is being paid to justifying and evaluating such schemes. In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-criteria framework for evaluating TWC schemes—an approach that attempts to cover their individual design features. A broad evaluation is conducted regarding energy-saving and environmental effectiveness, economic efficiency, cost-effectiveness, transaction costs, political feasibility, administrative burden and technical change. The results show the design and performance of TWC schemes to be case and context-specific, and generalisations are thus inappropriate. This evaluation supports the cost-effectiveness modelled for the British scheme and the assumption that a TWC scheme is an economically efficient policy instrument. For the other, more complex TWC schemes, more data and experience are needed to judge their ex-post merit. On the whole, the proposed multi-criteria evaluation requires considerable data and complementary methods. However, the framework improves the understanding of the broad effects and attributes of TWC schemes. It deals with various empirical and normative aspects that can be applied in their evaluation. 相似文献
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指出了现有的大多采用以磨制每吨煤所消耗的电量为基准来评判制粉系统耗电率的不足之处,提出了一种较为客观全面的评价方法-模糊综合评判法,并给出了模糊综合评判模型。不仅考虑到制粉系统的耗电量,还要考虑到磨制出的煤粉的“优劣”情况,如影响着火燃尽行性及不完全燃烧热损失的煤粉细度R90,反映干燥出力的磨出口煤粉温度、原煤的种类和性质,以及制粉系统的金属耗用量,材料耗用量和其它各种费用。新的评价方法使得制粉系统效率能够进行统一评判。 相似文献
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年径流总量控制率作为海绵城市的主要考核目标,是海绵城市建设中总量控制、污染控制、峰值控制的集中体现。为在海绵改造中实现这一目标,选取某城市某典型海绵改造项目,通过合理的方案布置,进行长时间连续监测(包含完整水文年),获取监测期内场次降雨全过程流量数据,并对超过10万条的监测数据利用Matlab进行自动分析计算。结果表明,大量监测数据的积累不仅可以完成海绵改造项目的定量化考核,同时还可以实现项目模型参数的率定和验证,可评估不同水文年下径流控制率;利用监测与模拟相结合的方法对完工后的海绵项目持续跟踪评估,可准确掌握海绵改造的建设效果,为海绵设施运行与管理提供最直接的依据。 相似文献
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Jakob W. Messner Pierre Pinson Jethro Browell Mathias B. Bjerregrd Irene Schicker 《风能》2020,23(6):1461-1481
Wind power forecast evaluation is of key importance for forecast provider selection, forecast quality control, and model development. While forecasts are most often evaluated based on squared or absolute errors, these error measures do not always adequately reflect the loss functions and true expectations of the forecast user, neither do they provide enough information for the desired evaluation task. Over the last decade, research in forecast verification has intensified, and a number of verification frameworks and diagnostic tools have been proposed. However, the corresponding literature is generally very technical and most often dedicated to forecast model developers. This can make forecast users struggle to select the most appropriate verification tools for their application while not fully appraising subtleties related to their application and interpretation. This paper revisits the most common verification tools from a forecast user perspective and discusses their suitability for different application examples as well as evaluation setup design and significance of evaluation results. 相似文献
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光伏系统经济性评价体系及其方法研究 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3
讨论了在选择光伏系统安装站址时影响光伏系统经济性的各种因素,提出一种多层次多目标的光伏系统经济性综合评价体系结构,并介绍相应的评价方法。 相似文献