A regionally-applicable model for the study of the growth of organized labor

The research in this paper contains the design and application of a model to study the regional growth of union membership. It provides techniques to analyze both aggregate regional union membership and the ratio of aggregate regional union membership to aggregate regional employment.Union membership and its ratio to employment are influenced by employment effects (essentially a product market influence) and non-employment effects (factor market influences: government legislation, social opinion, technology, and union organizational efforts). The Product Market Effect and Factor Market Effect are isolated and measurable within the context of the model. In addition to having the advantage of separating employment from all other influences, the model deals with individual industries in a regional setting. Hence, its application is facilitated because agencies in many states collect and publish data on industrial employment and the industrial composition of union membership.In order to demonstrate the model's applicability, it has been applied to Santa Clara County. Union membership in the County rose from 56,300 in 1955 to 104,800 in 1968. Simultaneously, the ratio of union membership to employment declined from.497 in 1955 to.294 in 1968. The regional rise in total union membership between 1955 and 1968 was a composite of regional employment expansion and reductions in some of the regional industry's ratios of union membership to employment. The decline of the ratio of total union membership to total employment in Santa Clara County can be attributed to employment expansion in weakly organized industries (i. e., those with low ratios of union membership to employment) and the declining ratios of union membership to employment within the regional industries.     

Interregional migration in an extended input-output model

"This article develops a two-region version of an extended input-output model that disaggregates consumption among employed, unemployed, and inmigrant households, and which explicitly models the influx into a region of migrants to take up a proportion of any jobs created in the regional economy. The model is empirically tested using real data for the Scotland (UK) regions of Strathclyde and Rest-of-Scotland. Sets of interregional economic, demographic, demo-economic, and econo-demographic multipliers are developed and discussed, and the effects of a range of economic and demographic impacts are modeled. The circumstances under which Hawkins-Simon conditions for non-negativity are breached are identified, and the limits of the model discussed."     

Scalable shift-share analysis: Novel framework and application to France

The shift-share analysis (SSA) of regional employment growth disparities aims at disentangling the effects of regional differences in industry mix and industrial competitiveness. Yet, the spatial concentration of industry is a blindspot of this approach. We generalize the SSA to encompass this salient feature of the economic geography. Besides, industry emergence and catastrophic growth events—booming or collapsing industries—are integrated in our framework. This novel method is applied to study regional disparities in manufacturing employment growth in France in a dynamic way over a 22-year period at a fine geographical level.     

农村宅基地置换模式比较与分析——以上海佘山镇、天津华明镇、重庆九龙坡区为例

该文主要对宅基地置换典型模式:上海佘山镇模式、天津华明镇模式、重庆九龙坡模式,从置换背景、区位与区域发展定位、资金平衡方式、就业、社会保障等方面进行比较与分析,提出影响宅基地置换的因素,分析宅基地置换模式,的具体方法与模式,为其他地区宅基地置换工作的进行提供参考.     

Measuring industry importance: an Australian application

The focus of this paper is an empirical examination of the importance of an industry in terms of its contribution to regional employment. It uses a closed input-output model. Four alternative measures of importance are presented and explored in the framework of a 58-industry input-output model of the Australian State of Tasmania. The four measures are compared to each other, to direct employment and to a multiplier-based rule-of-thumb. Our preferred measure is one which takes into account both direct effects and the strength of backward linkages. The rule-of-thumb is found to be highly correlated to this measure.We are grateful to an anonymous referee for useful comments. A longer version of this paper including a detailed discussion of the computation procedures is available from the authors on request.     

The income return to entrepreneurship: theoretical model and outcomes for Swedish regions

This paper investigates the income return to entrepreneurship and wage employment by means of Lazear’s model of occupational choice. The paper has two major aims. The first is to develop a new theoretical framework for analyzing the income return to entrepreneurship by combining the Lazear model with the assumption that the skill profiles in a population are Fréchet-distributed. The second is to demonstrate that the resulting theoretical derivations can be used for a new type of regional analysis of the income return to entrepreneurship and wage employment. The empirical analysis is based on data for individuals with a Master of Science degree in Electrical Engineering. We compute their income return to self-employment and wage employment in three parts of Sweden: the Stockholm region, the combined Gothenburg and Malmö region, and the Rest of Sweden. The results show that the average return to self-employment is less than 5% in all regions and smaller in the Gothenburg and Malmö region than in the other two regions. The regional differences are explained by the differential supply curves and market values of entrepreneurial talent. The theoretical derivation of the income return to entrepreneurship is the main contribution of the paper. Another contribution is the derivation of regional supply curves for entrepreneurs.     

REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT

ABSTRACT The development of energy resources has significant effects on a regional economic system, two alternative approaches can be followed once u regional input-output analysis framework has been chosen to provide the modelling background for the evaluation of energy-related impacts. The first deals with the evaluation of changes in economic activity and employment due to energy development, through the utilisation of the basic input-output framework and the consideration of detailed labour and material requirements. The second copes with the integration of energy with the other regional economic activities and provides the possibility to consider structural changes, in the regional economic system.
Both approaches are applied to a region of Greece with a promising energy potential. The first approach should he considered as an initial and very useful step in the impact analysis process. Concerning the second approach, it was clear that the dynamic dosed model, with respect to households, is the best formulation for regional energy and economic policy purposes.     

DOES MIGRATION EQUALISE REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES? EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIA

Whether inter-regional migration equilibrates regional economic performance is a question which has received considerable attention in recent literature. The author examines that question, focusing upon regional unemployment rates and real wages within the context of a 24-hour equation econometric model of the interaction between regional wages, regional unemployment, and inter-regional migration in Australia. Used to solve for steady-state values of wage and unemployment differences, the model determined that the steady state involves non-zero unemployment rate differences and non-zero wage differences. The model is also used to investigate the stability of the equilibrating mechanism and to simulate the effects upon unemployment, migration, and wage rates of a shock to employment growth. The main findings are that inter-regional equilibrating forces are slow and do not help equalize regional unemployment rates or wages.     

基于智能建筑的社会化报警服务体系建设

在各类智能建筑蓬勃发展和社会治安情况复杂的综合形势下,安全防范系统相应地形成了独立报警服务、集成报警服务和社会化报警服务三类模式。本文通过对智能建筑中各自独立运行的安全防范子系统的集成应用,形成跨建筑群、跨区域的报警服务方式的研究,进而探讨基于智能建筑的社会化报警服务体系过程中体系构架与应用服务功能。     

城市政体模型及其对中国城市发展研究的启示

随着中国快速城市化过程 ,越来越多的学者认为城市发展和建设不再是单纯的物质性、经济性的问题而是与城市政府的制度安排和政策选择息息相关。特别是对于正处在社会经济转型期的、以经济增长为主导的中国城市来说 ,政策选择参与者的价值取向、政策决策和协商机制的建构显得尤为重要。对此 ,西方规划学界主要是通过城市政体模型从政治经济学的角度来分析城市发展的。文章从源于美国的城市政体模型入手 ,简述其主要的理论特征 ,并且在此基础上进一步探讨其对现阶段中国城市政体分析的启示     

Estimating population change with a two-category shift-share model

Shift-share analysis is an accounting procedure that identifies three separate effects for regional employment change. But the analysis is ordinarily restricted to only one category: usually, industry employment. This paper presents a new shift-share model that simultaneously addresses both occupation employment and industry employment. Community-level occupation-in-industry employment effects (both mix and competitive) occurring in the 1980s are then used to estimate population change in the 1990s. Separate estimates are given for two data sets comprised of different-sized non-metropolitan U.S. communities – small towns and micropolitan centers. This expanded two-category model is shown to generate estimates that are clearly superior to those of the traditional one-category model.The first version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Association of Pacific Coast Geographers in September, 2001. The senior author has benefited from various conversations with Kingsley Haynes regarding shift-share analysis. The authors also thank three referees and the editor for their comments on an earlier version of the paper.     

Human and social behavior in computational modeling and analysis of egress

Safe egress is one of the key design issues identified by facility planners, manager and inspectors. Computational tools are now available for the simulation and design of emergency evacuation and egress. However, these tools rely heavily on assumptions about individual human and social behaviors, which have been found to be oversimplified, inconsistent and even incorrect. Furthermore, the behaviors are usually incorporated into the computational model in an ad hoc manner. This paper presents a framework for studying human and social behavior, from the perspectives of human decision-making and social interaction, and for incorporating such behavior systematically in a dynamic computational model suitable for emergency egress analysis.     

Regional competitive advantage and growth in national interindustry markets

A region's producing sectors compete in national markets with other regions, and its output growth therefore depends on changes in the region's sectoral input costs relative to those in other regions. In this model, production costs are taken as dependent upon wages and other payments to local factors and upon costs of interindustry inputs, the producers of which pay wages and other factor costs locally or, if the inputs are imported, in other regions. After consideration of conditions by which regional commodity supply functions can be aggregated, sectoral commodity prices and the regional production of national and local goods are endogenously determined in a computable equilibrium system within a balanced regional model framework.     

The effect of basic employment and regional factors on net migration: A study for Washington state

Relationships between net migration and basic employment, income, and regional urbanization are examined using 1960–70 census data for the state of Washington. Regression analysis indicates that changes in employment in agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining and in manufacturing have a direct effect on the rate of net migration. Change in median family income is also directly related to net migration but the effect is not as strong as that of employment. Location by region has a substantial impact on net population shifts with net inflows attributable to the urbanization which occurred in western Washington from 1960 to 1970. The employment, income, and regional effects are clarified by explicitly recognizing rapid growth in educational, governmental and retirement activity and recent large increases in basic employment which occurred in two small groups of counties. Overall, the results indicate that while the rate of net migration is responsive to changes in basic employment and family income, it is also important to recognize regional factors such as urbanization.A special note of appreciation is expressed to Mr. Sharif Masud who developed background data used in the analysis. Work was conducted under Regional Project W-118 of the Agricultural Research Center, Washington State University.     

Empirical analysis of differential spillover effects within a growth equilibrium framework: Urban–rural versus rural–rural linkages

The employment and population growth equilibrium model is extended to allow for differentiated linkages between rural and urban regions and among rural regions. The model is applied to examine the regional disparities within the rural economy of Northern Ireland between 2001 and 2007. To represent the theoretical idea of commuter shed, commuting data are used to construct the spatial weighting matrix. The results reveal positive rural–urban but negative rural‐rural linkages, suggesting that rural regions benefit from economic growth in urban regions but compete with each other. The direct and indirect spillover effects are shown using simulation examples.     

A short-term forecasting model for sectoral regional employment

Problems associated with employment have become a major issue in regional economics, especially in those countries, such as Spain, where unemployment represents a serious threat to regional stability. In this context, the purpose of our paper is twofold: first, to develop a prediction instrument for regional employment, one which should be flexible and efficient; secondly, to use this instrument in order to make a short term forecast of sectoral regional employment (and the labour force) of a characteristic region of Spain, namely Aragón. The type of instrument used is an econometric time series model specified in a regional context. This means that attention must be given to the spatial structure of the labour markets. One way to introduce this effect may be through the specification of a transfer function which connects the regional market to the national one. This approach is an improvement on the traditional technique of univariate time series. Furthermore, for small labour markets it is important to assess the incidence of outliers, especially for forecasting purposes, because they distort the statistical inference. Received: November 1996 / Accepted: November 1997     

Long-run regional employment changes in nine U.S. Industries

This empirical study is based on U.S. Census data, adjusted to facilitate comparisons between the years 1910, 1940, and 1970. Changes in employment for nine leading industries are compared, region by region, for the nine geographic divisions of the U.S. as classified by the Census. A region's high rate of employment growth in one or two industries is not usually found to be cancelled by low growth in another industry, and so the net result for the region is a relatively large increase in total employment. A region's growth in total employment appears to be affected more by its relative growth in the moderate-growth industries, however, than by its rate of growth In the high-growth industries. One or two regions sometimes experience an employment decrease in an industry while the other regions are growing in that industry, and the reverse situation has also occurred in declining industries.Thanks are due Avon Dreyer and Alan Nichols for their criticisms and suggestions.     

(Un)related variety and employment growth at the sub‐regional level

Empirical results on the link between growth and diversity in (un)related industries proved to be highly dependent on the specific regional, temporal and econometric context. Using highly disaggregated employment data at the sub‐regional level, we find that higher employment growth in Austria is mainly linked to unrelated variety. However, in‐depth analyses by sectors and regional regimes illustrate substantial heterogeneity in the results, with services and a large number of relatively small non‐urban regions driving the overall results. Thus, our findings argue against structural policy conclusions based on assessments neglecting the specific sectoral and regional context.     

A forecasting territorial model of regional growth: the MASST model

The profound and unique institutional and economic processes which characterise the historic period Europe is facing and will face call for appropriate methodologies to forecast the impact of these processes on Europe and its territory. Few regional econometric models as the basis of forecasting exercises have been developed, either replicating national macroeconomic models, or through complex systems of equations for each region that are linked to both the national aggregate economy and to the other regional economies through input—output technical coefficients that determine intra- and inter-regional trade and output. This paper presents a new regional forecasting model, labelled MASST (macroeconomic, sectoral, social and territorial), built on a modern conceptualization of regional growth. In MASST, regional growth is conceived as a competitive, endogenous and cumulative process in which social and a spatial elements play an important role: local resource endowments and increasing returns in the form of agglomeration economies and spatial growth spillovers perform an important role in the explanation of regional growth differentials. MASST is generative in nature, since local factors matter, but it is also a model that considers a second family of development factors, these being macroeconomic and national. This structure of the model gives rise to the possibility of producing an efficient interactive national—regional approach, combining top-down and bottom-up approaches.     

Foreign labor and regional labor markets: aggregate and disaggregate impact on growth and wages in Danish regions

Foreign labor has become a central issue in Western Europe. This paper tests whether (1) inflows of foreign labor affect regional growth, and thereby whether employment opportunities for Danish workers are affected; (2) inflows of foreign labor lower real wage growth. We find that foreign labor has non-negative effects on the job opportunities for Danish workers in regional labor markets, whereas the evidence of a regional wage growth effect is mixed. We also present disaggregated results focusing on regional heterogeneity of business structures, skill levels and backgrounds of foreign labor. The results are interpreted within a specific Danish labor market context and the associated regional outcomes. This adds to previous findings and emphasizes the importance of labor market institutions for the effect of foreign labor on regional employment growth.