Effect of management strategies on reducing negative impacts of climate change on water resources of the Isfahan–Borkhar aquifer using MODFLOW

Recently, many studies have investigated the effect of climate change on groundwater resources in semiarid and arid areas and have shown adverse effects on groundwater recharge and water level. However, only a few studies have shown suitable strategies for reducing these adverse effects. In this study, climate conditions were predicted for the future period of 2020–2044, under the emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for Isfahan–Borkhar aquifer, Isfahan, Iran, using MODFLOW‐2000 (MODFLOW is United States Geological Survey product). Results showed that the average groundwater level of the aquifer would decrease to 13, 15, and 16 m in 2012 to 2044 approximately under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Then, three groundwater sustainability management scenarios were defined that included 10%, 30%, and 50% reduction in groundwater extraction. These strategies simulated the reduced negative effects of climate change on the aquifer. The results showed that decreases in water withdrawal rates of 10%, 30%, and 50% under RCP8.5 scenario (critical scenario) could decrease the mean groundwater level by 14, 11, and 7 m, respectively. The main result of the study showed that 50% reduction in groundwater withdrawal may increase the groundwater levels significantly in order to restore the aquifer sustainability in the study area. In this study, with assuming that the current harvest of wells in the future period is constant, so the results of studies showed that for the aquifer's sustainability management, the water abstraction from the aquifer should reduce up to 50% of the existing wells. Changing the irrigation method from surface to subdroplet irrigation plays an important role in reducing the withdrawal from the aquifer. The results of a study in Iran have shown that the change in the irrigation method from surface to subdroplet irrigation causes a 40% reduction in water use for agriculture.     

Simulation and Multi-Objective Management of Coastal Aquifers in Semi-Arid Regions

Groundwater is the main water resource in many semi-arid coastal regions and water demand, especially in summer months, can be very high. Groundwater withdrawal for meeting this demand often causes seawater intrusion and degradation of water quality of coastal aquifers. In order to satisfy demand, a combined management plan is proposed and is under consideration for the island of Santorini. The plan involves: (1) desalinization (if needed) of pumped water to a potable level using reverse osmosis and (2) injection into the aquifer of biologically-treated waste water. The management plan is formulated in a multi-objective, optimization framework, where simultaneous minimization of economic and environmental costs is desired, subject to a constraint so that cleaned water satisfies demand. The decision variables concern the well locations and the corresponding pumping and recharging rates. The problem is solved using a computationally efficient, multi-objective, genetic algorithm (NSGAII). The constrained multi-objective, optimization problem is transformed to an unconstrained one using a penalty function proportional to constraint violation. This extends the definition of the objective function outside the domain of feasibility. The impact of prolonged droughts on coastal aquifers is investigated by assuming various scenarios of reduced groundwater recharge. Water flow and quality in the coastal aquifer is simulated using a three-dimensional, variable density, finite difference model (SEAWAT). The method is initially applied to a test aquifer and the trade-off curves (Pareto fronts) are determinedl for each drought scenario. The trade-off curves indicate an increase on the economic and environmental cost as groundwater recharge reduces due to climate change.     

Simulation-Optimization Modeling of Conjunctive Use of Surface Water and Groundwater

Water resources management in semiarid regions with low precipitation and high potential of evapotranspiration is a great challenge for managers and decision makers. In those regions, both sources of water should be managed conjunctively so as to minimize shortages of water in dry seasons. In conjunctive use, the difficulty increases as one must represent the response of both systems interactions, and develop management strategies that simultaneously address surface water and aquifer regulation. This paper focuses on the simulation-optimization for conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater on a basin-wide scale, the Najafabad plain in west-central Iran. A trained artificial neural network model is developed as a simulator of surface water and groundwater interaction while a genetic algorithm is developed as the optimization model. The main goal of the simulation-optimization model is to minimize shortages in meeting irrigation demands for three irrigation systems subject to constraints on the control of cumulative drawdown of the underlying water table and maximum capacity of surface irrigation systems. To achieve the main goal, three scenarios are presented. Results of the proposed model demonstrate the importance of the conjunctive use approach for planning the management of water resources in semiarid regions.     

A Decision Support System to Manage the Groundwater of the Zeuss Koutine Aquifer Using the WEAP-MODFLOW Framework

This paper describes the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) for groundwater management of the ‘Zeuss Koutine’ aquifer in southeastern Tunisia using the WEAP-MODFLOW framework. First, a monthly MODFLOW model was developed to simulate the behaviour of the studied aquifer. A conceptual model of the study area was designed and a WEAP schematic representing the real hydraulic system was developed. In addition to the studied aquifer, other water resources available in the region, such as desalination plants and groundwater, were taken into consideration in this DSS. Inputs to the hydrogeological model include natural recharge and inflow from higher neighbouring aquifers. Outputs are mainly agricultural, touristic and urban water consumption. It was shown that the DSS developed was able to evaluate water management scenarios up to 2030, especially future water consumption, transmission link flow and active cell heads of the MODFLOW model for each time step. Results for the Zeuss Koutine aquifer demonstrated that desalination plants already built in the cities of Jerba and Zarzis have contributed to decreasing the continuous drawdown observed before 1999. The use of a sea water desalination plant to supply Jerba and Zarzis in the future is a solution for reducing the Zeuss Koutine aquifer drawdown. Defining its optimal capacity over time poses a new research question.     

A New Integrated MADM Technique Combined with ANP,FTOPSIS and Fuzzy Max-Min Set Method for Evaluating Water Transfer Projects

In sustainable water resources management, it is essential to rank inter-basin water transfer projects. This task is difficult due to many different conflict criteria, complex relations among criteria and various judgments of decision makers. In this paper, an integrated multiple attribute group decision making method consists of ANP (Analytical Network Process), fuzzy TOPSIS and fuzzy max-min set methods is proposed for evaluating water transfer projects. A set of over 60 criteria in social, environmental and economic sectors are used for ranking four water transfer projects in Karun River based on three decision maker judgments. A key novelty of the proposed methodology is its ability to model both complex relations among different criteria in water management and the influence of decision maker judgments’ weights on the final ranking in group decision making problem. The procedure starts by obtaining the priority of water transfer projects and the weight of each decision maker judgments by employing ANP and fuzzy TOPSIS, respectively. These weights are used as inputs in the fuzzy max-min set method. Then the effects of decision maker weights on the final ranking are determined in fuzzy environment. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of decision makers’ weights has been conducted. The results show that the proposed method is an effective tool for group decision making problems by considering different criteria and decision makers’ weights.     

A Fuzzy-Stochastic Modeling Approach for Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis of Coupled Groundwater-Agricultural Systems

The complexity of water resources management increases when decisions about environmental and social issues are considered in addition to economic efficiency. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. In this paper, a new fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision-making approach is proposed for water resources management in which a variety of criteria in terms of economic, environmental and social dimensions are identified and taken into account. The goal is to evaluate multiple conflicting criteria under uncertainties and to rank a set of management alternatives. The methodology uses a simulation-optimization water management model of a strongly interacting groundwater-agriculture system to enumerate criteria based on these bio-physical process interactions. Fuzzy and/or qualitative information regarding the decision-making process for which quantitative data is not available are evaluated in linguistic terms. Afterwards, Monte Carlo simulation is applied to combine these information and to generate a probabilistic decision matrix of management alternatives versus criteria in an uncertain environment. Based on this outcome, total performance values of the management alternatives are calculated using ordered weighted averaging. The proposed approach is applied to a real world example, where excessive groundwater withdrawal from the coastal aquifer for irrigated agriculture has resulted in saltwater intrusion, threatening the economical basis of farmers and associated societal impacts. The analysis has provided potential decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. Furthermore, sensitivity of different inputs to resulting rankings is investigated. It is found that decision makers’ risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield different rankings. The presented approach suits to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management.     

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Purposes of Groundwater Control System Design

The best way for an engineer or scientist to express their knowledge, experience and opinions is day-to-day verbal communication. When a decision needs to be made about an optimal groundwater control system, the decision-making criteria need not always be numerical values. If fuzzy logic is used in multi-criteria decision-making, the criteria are described by linguistic variables that can be represented through fuzzy membership and expert judgment is used to describe such a system. Prior hydrodynamic modeling of the aquifer regime defines the management scenarios for groundwater control and provides an indication of their effectiveness. In this paper, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is applied to deal with a trending decision problem such as the selection of the optimal groundwater management system. Linguistic variables are used to evaluate all the criteria and sub-criteria that influence the final decision and the numerical weights of each alternative are determined by mathematical calculations. The paper presents a part of the algorithm – fuzzy optimization in hydrodynamic analysis, which leads to the selection of the optimal groundwater control system. The proposed method is applied in a real case study of an open-cast mine.     

Combined Management of Groundwater Resources and Water Supply Systems at Basin Scale Under Climate Change

Water stress conditions associated with population growth, climate change, and groundwater contamination, represent a significant challenge for all stakeholders in the water sector. Increasing the resilience of Water Supply Systems (WSSs) becomes of fundamental importance: along with an adequate level of service, sustainability targets must be ensured. A long-term management strategy is strictly connected to a holistic approach, based on analyses at different scales. To this end, both groundwater modeling tools and water management models, with different spatial and temporal scales, are routinely and independently employed. Here, we propose a coupled approach combining: i) groundwater models (MODFLOW) to investigate different stress scenarios, involving climate change and anthropic activities; ii) water management models (Aquator), to assess the water resources availability and the best long-term management strategy for large-scale WSS. The management models are implemented starting from input and output flows derived by groundwater models: this leads to establish a comprehensive framework usually not defined in management models and including a quantitative characterization of the aquifer. The proposed methodology, general and applicable to any study area, is here implemented to the WSS of Reggio Emilia Province, and its main groundwater resource, the Enza aquifer, considering three different stress scenarios for groundwater models (BAU, ST1, and ST2), and for management strategies (BAU, BAU_RV2, ST2). Among the key results, we observe that coupling the two model types: i) allows evaluating water resources availability in connection with management rules; ii) leads to examining more realistic operation choices; iii) permits planning of infrastructures at basin scale.

     

Developing a Multi-Objective Conflict-Resolution Model for Optimal Groundwater Management Based on Fallback Bargaining Models and Social Choice Rules: a Case Study

Conflict-resolution models can be used as practical approaches to consider the contradictions and trade-offs between the involved stakeholders in integrated water resource management. These models are utilized to reach an optimal solution considering agents interactions. In this paper, a new methodology is developed based on multi-objective optimization model (NSGA-II), groundwater simulation model, M5P model tree, fallback bargaining procedures and social choice rules to determine the optimal groundwater management policies with an emphasis on resolving conflicts between stakeholders. By incorporating the multi-objective simulation-optimization model and bargaining methods, the optimal groundwater allocation policies are determined and the preferences of the stakeholders as well as social criteria such as justice are also considered. The obtained data set, based on Monte Carlo analysis of calibrated MODFLOW model, is used for training and validating the M5P meta-models. The validated M5P meta-models are linked with NSGA-II to determine the trade-off curve (Pareto front) for the objectives. Social choice rule and fallback bargaining methods, as conflict-resolution models, are applied to determine the best socio-optimal solution among stakeholders, and their results are compared. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is verified in a case study of Darian aquifer, Fars province, Iran. Results indicated that the solutions obtained by the proposed conflict-resolution approaches have an appropriate applicability. Total groundwater withdrawal, after applying the optimal groundwater allocations, reduced to 20.85 MCM, resulting in a 4.62 m increase in the mean groundwater level throughout the aquifer.     

Quantitative Assessment of Regional Rock Aquifers, South-Western Quebec, Canada

The population of the St. Lawrence Lowlands platform in south-western Quebec, Canada, is heavily dependent on groundwater. The present study summarizes the quantity, quality and sustainability estimations of the groundwater resources found mainly in sedimentary rock aquifers. Results show that the regional groundwater flow in the considered domain of 1,500 km² is 97.7 Mm³/y with: 86.6% infiltration from precipitation, 9.6% inflow from neighboring aquifers, and 3.8% induced recharge. The regional sustainability is defined with simulated drawdowns from uniform withdrawal scenarios. The current withdrawal rate of 18 Mm³/y results in median drawdown of 0.6 m, compared to pre-development conditions. This drawdown is situated well in the sustainable range, an indication that regional aquifers are not overexploited. Hypothetical pumping rate of 24 Mm³/y resulting in an average drawdown of 2.2 m is estimated as sustainable limit. Increasing exploitation from 24 to 51 Mm³/y would need tight control and planning. Pumping rates beyond 51 Mm³/y are judged not sustainable as regional drawdowns become high, ∼8 m. The water levels in recharge areas are the most sensitive to groundwater extraction. Combining drawdown maps, groundwater quality zones, and aquifer vulnerability to surface contamination delineated the areas most suitable for future groundwater developments.     

Aquifers Overexploitation in SE Spain: A Proposal for the Integrated Analysis of Water Management

Integrated water resources management is a paradigm that incorporates technical, scientific, political, legislative and organizational aspects of a water system. This study presents a methodology for undertaking an integrated analysis of water systems supplied by groundwater. This methodology is here applied to examine the water system of the Altiplano region in Murcia, where the water extraction from the aquifers greatly exceeds recharge and the irrigated areas supplied by those aquifers have a very high agrarian profitability. First, the hydrological problematic of the case study was conceptualized. Then, a sectorial study on each aspect related to the water management of the system was developed. As Bayesian Networks was the chosen technique for the integrated analysis, the information obtained by the sectorial studies was translated into specific variables, which together with the relations among them, modelled the real situation. As from a hydrogeological point of view the water system is comprised of four autonomous aquifers, a Bayesian Network for every aquifer was designed. This decision-support system enables us to evaluate the impacts generated under diverse water management scenarios.     

GIS-Based Groundwater Management Model for Western Nile Delta

The limited availability of renewable fresh water is a major constraint on future agriculture and urban development in Egypt. The main water resource that Egypt has been depending on is the River Nile. Nowadays, the role of groundwater is steadily increasing and will cover 20% of the total water supply in the coming decades especially in the reclaimed areas along the desert fringes of the Nile Delta and Valley. Abstraction from groundwater in Egypt is dynamic in nature as it grows rapidly with the expansion of irrigation activities, industrialization, and urbanization. One of these areas is the Western Nile Delta in which the groundwater is exploited in many localities. To avoid the deterioration of the aquifer system in this area, an efficient integrated and sustainable management plan for groundwater resources is needed. Efficient integrated and sustainable management of water resources relies on a comprehensive database that represents the characteristics of the aquifer system and modeling tools to achieve the impacts of decision alternatives. In this paper, a GIS-based model has been developed for the aquifer system of the Western Nile Delta. The GIS provides the utilization of analytical tools and visualization capabilities for pre-and post-processing information involved in groundwater modeling for the study area. The developed model was calibrated for steady state and transient conditions against the historical groundwater heads observed during the last 20 yr. The calibrated model was used to evaluate groundwater potentiality and to test two alternative management scenarios for conserving the aquifer system in Western Nile Delta. In the first scenario, reducing the surface water inflow while increasing the annual abstraction from groundwater by about 450 million m³ and improving the irrigation system could increase the net aquifer recharge by about 5.7% and reduce the aquifer potentiality by about 91%. Constructing a new canal as a second management scenario could increase the annual aquifer potentiality by about 23%. The GIS-based model has been proven to be an efficient tool for formulating integrated and sustainable management plan.     

Conjunctive Water Use Planning in an Irrigation Command Area

In the present study, an integrated soil water balance algorithm was coupled to a non-linear optimization model in order to carry out water allocation planning in complex deficit agricultural water resources systems based on an economic efficiency criterion. The LINGO 10.0, optimization package has been used to evolve at optimal allocation plan of surface and ground water for irrigation of multiple crops. The proposed model was applied for Qazvin Irrigation Command Area, a semi-arid region in Iran. Various scenarios of conjunctive use of surface and ground water along-with current and proposed cropping pattern have been explored. Some deficit irrigation practices were also investigated. The results indicate that conjunctive use practices are feasible and can be easily implemented in the study area, which would enhance the overall benefits from cropping activities. The study provides various possible operational scenarios of the branch canals of the command area in the common and dry condition, which can help managers in decision making for the optimum allocation plans of water resources within the different irrigation districts. The findings demonstrate that for deficit irrigation options, the mining allowance of ground water value of the command area is greatly reduced and ground water withdrawal may be also restricted to the recharge to maintain the river–aquifer equilibrium.     

跨界含水层管理现状及启示

跨界含水层资源是全球地下水资源的重要组成部分。跨界含水层管理的核心是其开发利用和保护问题。在阐述跨界含水层的概念、一般原则,涉及的相关法律规定,跨界含水层划分情况、管理措施和管理存在的问题等基础上,总结了跨界含水层管理对我国的几点启示,有利于加强跨界含水层立法研究和国际合作。     

陡河流域地表水与地下水转化关系

通过对陡河流域地表水-地下水水样的氢氧同位素分布特征进行分析,发现研究区河岸带第Ⅰ含水层除了受大气降水、灌溉回归水入渗补给外,还接受河水早期的渗漏补给,第Ⅱ含水层对第Ⅲ含水层有越流补给,第Ⅱ含水层同时也受大气降水和灌溉回归水的影响,而远离河岸带的第Ⅳ含水层与上覆各含水层稳定同位素组成显著不同,河岸带水库附近的第Ⅳ含水层可能受地表水库渗漏影响。河岸带地下水与地表水水力联系的变迁严格受河岸带地下水水位变化控制,如景庄子剖面的地下水埋深为5m,雨季时河水补给地下水,旱季时地下水补给河水,而靠近地下水漏斗中心的越河乡剖面地下水水位埋深达25m,其常年受地表水补给。     

Groundwater Management for Sustainable Development of Urban and Rural Areas in Extremely Arid Regions: A Case Study

In Saudi Arabia, the recharge to local and regional aquifers is mostly indirect, very limited and insignificant, especially with low annual precipitation. Most of the stored groundwater in local and regional aquifers is non-renewable fossil water. With rapid socio-economic developments and increasing population coupled with agricultural and industrial growth in the Kingdom, especially after the large increase in oil revenues after 1974, the water demands have increased drastically. By understanding the aquifer features, the country followed a planned approach based on controlling aquifer development and demand management to use its groundwater resources. The socio-economic developments in rural areas have been very pronounced. Corrective demand management measures including reduction in cultivated areas and modification in agricultural support policies in addition to the augmentation of water supplies by the reuse of treated wastewater have reduced the stress on groundwater. The establishment of a special Ministry for water and the adoption of a national water planning approach and the use of an integrated water resources management tool are expected to contribute effectively to the achievement of sustainable groundwater resources and the national interest of the country.     

Predictive Simulation of Flow and Solute Transport for Managing the Salalah Coastal Aquifer, Oman

A three-dimensional numerical model for flow and solute transport was used for the management of the Salalah aquifer. The model calibration procedures consisted of calibrating the aquifer system hydraulic parameters by history matching under steady and transient conditions. The history of input and output of the aquifer were reconstructed in a transient calibration from 1993 to 2005. Predictive simulation of the aquifer was carried out under transient conditions to predict the future demand of groundwater supply for the next 15 years. A baseline scenario was worked out to obtain the piezometric surface and salinity distribution for the “business as usual” conditions of the aquifer. The “business as usual” scenario was predicted and simulated for the period 2006 until 2020. The effectiveness of seven management options was proposed and assessed for comparison with the “business as usual” conditions. The established simulation model was used to predict the distribution of the piezometric surface, salinity distribution, and mass balance under the proposed scenarios for the prediction period 2006–2020. The scenarios were: (1) relocate Garziz and MAF farms far from the freshwater zone, (2) suspend the abstraction of grass production for 4 months a year, (3) changes in agricultural and irrigation system patterns, (4) establish a desalination plant, (5) combined scenario (1 + 4), (6) combined scenario (1 + 3), and (7) combining all scenarios (1 + 2 + 3 + 4). The result of the simulation shows that the best effective option in terms of aquifer groundwater levels is the fifth proposed scenario and the sixth proposed scenario is the best effective option in terms of aquifer groundwater salinity situation during the next 15 years. This project suggested the application of scenario 6 as it is environmentally sound in terms of sustainable management. A prediction has been made which shows that further actions have to be taken within the next two decades to ensure continuity of the municipal water supply. The management scenarios are examined in the case of the Salalah coastal aquifer using groundwater simulation, which can also be applied to other regions with similar conditions. The established model is considered a reasonable representation of the physical conditions of the Salalah plain aquifer, and can be used as a tool by the water and environmental authorities in the management of the groundwater in the region.     

Future groundwater conditions under long-term water stresses in an arid urban area

The urban area of Greater Dhahran has an extremely arid climate where the average annual rainfail is less than 71 mm. The Umm Er Radhuma (UER) aquifer in that area is the main source of domestic and landscape irrigation demands. Groudwater use has increased drastically during the last 15 years due to extensive developments in the area. Numerical simulation techiques and hydrogeochemical investigations were carried out to assess the effects of increasing pumping rates on the piezometric surface in the UER aquifer and to predict the future levels and quality of water under different pumping scenarios. A groundwater flow model was developed and calibrated for the area. The increase in the water extraction rate between 1967 and 1990 has resulted in a decline in the piezometric surface by about 4 m in the Dhahran area. The results of simulation investigations indicated that if the present trend of the groundwater withdrawal rate continues, the water level is expected to drop by an additional 2 and by the end of the year 2000, by an additional 6 m by the end of 2010. If the present increasing rate in groundwater withdrawal is reduced by 50%, the additional drawdown will also be reduced to about 1 and 2.5 m by the end of years 2000 and 2010, respectively. The average total dissolved solids (TDS) has increased from 2750 to 3545 mg/l between 1967 and 1990 and will continue to rise to 3922 and 4361 by the end of years 2000 and 2010, respectively. These original findings are important because they postulates the negative impacts of increasing groundwater pumping from an aquifer in an arid urban area on future groundwater levels and quality. Therefore, effective groundwater management and conservation schemes should be adopted to maintain the long-term productivity and quality of aquifers in the area.     

Multi-criteria Decision Making for Integrated Urban Water Management

The city of Zahedan, in South-eastern Iran, has high population growth, limited local freshwater resources and inadequate water distribution system resulting in water supply failures in recent years. This paper will investigate integration of several demand management measures such as leakage detection on water distribution network, water metering and low volume water fixtures as well as the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources of this city. For integration of water management criteria, compromise programming will be used as a multi-objective decision making method. The criteria include minimizing the cost, maximizing water supply and minimizing the social hazards due to the water supply operations. This model will derive optimum long-term plans for implementation of water resources. The results will show that demand management can delay a water transfer project for Zahedan city up to 10 years. Compromise programming is as an efficient tool for integrated water resources management in urban areas and the method is capable to being used by decision-makers in other cases.     

Integrated river basin planning and management: a case study of the Zayandehrud River basin,Iran

This study applies the concept of integrated water resources management (IWRM) to a river basin in Iran, and in so doing, proposes a framework for implementing IWRM principles. Issues such as stakeholder participation, sustainability in several subdomains, scenario analysis, dispute resolution, climate change and well-designed models have been considered. Through a river basin simulation model (RIBASIM) and sustainability criteria, stakeholders made decisions for improving the level of sustainability in the basin. The result of decision making for the future was tested under climate change impacts, and the outputs showed serious challenges, so a strategy is proposed for overcoming these impact effects.