火灾发生频率与经济发展关系研究

火灾是发生频率较高且影响较大的一种灾害,其发生受各种因素的影响,经济因素是最重要的影响因素之一。研究火灾发生与经济发展之间的关系,对预防火灾具有重要的现实意义。本文从1996-2011年我国火灾形势着手,研究随经济的发展,火灾发生的数量和造成的直接经济损失的变化规律。重点分析了火灾与国民生产总值（GDP）之间的关系,并运用SPSS（社会科学统计软件包）软件对已有数据进行分析,同时研究了各地区火灾发生率与人均GDP的关系。     

火灾与经济人口指标关系研究

收集了2002-2016年我国火灾、经济、人口的相关数据,利用统计分析软件Excel 2010、SPSS 23.0对数据进行了统计图表分析、典型相关分析。结果表明:火灾的发生次数与个体和私营企业从业人数、城镇居民人均可支配收入、城市人口密度呈正相关关系,与社会消费品零售总额、人均GDP呈负相关关系;火灾受伤人数与社会消费品零售总额、人均GDP呈正相关关系,与个体和私营企业从业人数、城镇居民人均可支配收入、城市人口密度呈负相关关系;火灾直接经济损失与个体和私营企业数、城镇居民人均可支配收入、人均GDP呈正相关关系,与社会消费品零售总额呈负相关关系。     

火灾自动报警系统消防监督检查要点及典型隐患研究

火灾自动报警系统是现代建筑中较为常见的建筑消防设施,本文通过总结火灾自动报警系统的消防监督检查经验,深入研究其隐患类型、分布特点及查找方式,形成一套火灾自动报警系统的检查方法.基于多省、市消防监督检查的大量样本数据,开展火灾自动报警系统隐患数量与人均GDP的关联性分析计算.并对检查情况进行系统的统计与分析,发现火灾自动...     

不同起火原因火灾时空聚集性研究

基于2012-2016年的火灾统计数据,利用变异系数和基尼系数,研究9类起火原因在省份、场所、区域、月份和时段的聚集性和热点。结果表明,火灾空间聚集性显著,火灾省份分布呈强聚集性,热点集中在浙江、辽宁、江苏和山东等;场所变异系数和基尼系数分别大于1和0.75,呈现十分显著的聚集性,每类火灾中20%场所均贡献80%以上火灾,住宅火灾风险突出;区域分布上,热点多集中在农村。火灾的时间聚集性较差,玩火和静电引起的火灾月份聚集性显著,玩火有一定时段聚集性。     

城乡一体化与区域经济增长的空间计量分析

通过构建空间计量分析模型,就我国31省份城乡一体化程度进行测度,并对城乡一体化对区域经济增长的影响进行分析。研究结果表明,城乡一体化与区域经济增长呈现明显的空间相关,城乡一体化发展速度较快的区域,其经济发展水平实现较快提升。区域经济增长和城乡一体化在相邻省份之间存在较强的空间依赖性和相关性。城乡人口融合、城乡基础设施融合是促进区域经济增长的重要驱动力。应实施有差别的城镇化政策,推动城乡产业、人口、基础设施融合,促进区域经济增长。     

2007-2017 年较大以上直接财产损失火灾统计分析

使用斯皮尔曼相关系数，分析2007-2017 年消防部门统计的1 000 万元以上火灾直接财产损失和保险公司统计的1 000 万元以上火灾财产保险赔付数据与GDP 和常住人口的相关性。建议改革完善火灾直接财产损失统计制度和工作机制，加强与相关部门数据共享，应用大数据、区块链技术，为消防工作决策提供科学依据。     

坡地建筑火灾数值模拟

基于计算流体力学的方法研究了位于山坡上的建筑发生火灾时的特点与规律。通过改变坡度、风、宽高比、建筑布局4种参数,对山坡建筑火灾下的温度、速度、热释放速率、建筑表面温度和建筑表面热辐射吸收量等物理量进行了定性和定量的分析,考察了不同参量下的火灾危险性。在指定的研究场景下得出以下结论:坡度、风与火灾危险性呈正相关的关系;建筑宽高比与火灾危险性呈反相关的关系;建筑布局采用对齐分布时的火灾危险性高于交错分布时。     

不同火灾工况下钢梁-钢管混凝土柱平面框架受火全过程分析

采用多尺度建模方法建立了考虑钢材高温蠕变的三层三跨钢梁-钢管混凝土柱平面框架火灾全过程热-力耦合数值模型,研究不同火灾工况下平面框架经历常温加载、恒载升温、降温和火灾后等不同受火阶段的力学性能。在与已有试验对比验证的基础上,分析了框架经历升温和降温后受火钢梁跨中挠度和受火柱顶轴向变形与升降温时间关系,计算了火灾后框架底层柱底水平荷载P-框架顶层水平位移Δ关系曲线。研究结果表明：钢材的高温蠕变是钢材在热力耦合作用下应变的一部分,计算过程中需要考虑其影响;钢梁在升温过程中由于高温膨胀对框架柱产生外推作用,而进入降温阶段后钢梁产生明显的收缩变形;框架底层三跨同时受火时钢梁跨中挠曲变形最大,受火初期柱顶轴向压缩变形小于膨胀变形;受火后框架水平承载力和初始刚度均随受火区域的增大呈下降趋势。     

模糊综合评价在地下公共建筑火灾风险评价中的应用

地下公共建筑封闭性强、火灾荷载大、人员密度高、火灾危险性大,影响因素很多,具有很强的不确定性、模糊性。火灾风险综合评价是对受多个火灾因素影响的建筑（构筑）物的火灾危险性做出一个总体评价。将模糊综合评价方法用于地下公共建筑火灾风险评价中,运用实例计算表明该方法在此类建筑火灾风险评价中的可行性。     

基于Shapley-ICUOWGA算子的高层建筑火灾安全评价

为解决高层建筑火灾安全评价指标关联性、非线性、模糊性对评价目标的影响,提出基于Shapley-ICUOWGA算子的高层建筑火灾安全评价方法。从建筑防火、火灾危险源、消防设施、安全疏散、安全管理5个维度构建指标体系;引入模糊语义量化算子对传统CUOWGA算子改进得到ICUOWGA算子,进一步消除主观性;结合Shapley值解决指标关联性、非线性关系的优势,确定影响高层建筑火灾安全的关键指标。评价结果认为,需加强前期防火设计和后期火灾危险源的管理。研究可为日常消防管理提供理论支撑。     

基于缓冲区分析的云南省文山州森林火灾分布研究

为研究文山州森林火灾分布特征,选取2012-2019年文山州森林火灾数据,采用ArcGIS的缓冲区分析与叠加分析方法探究居民点、道路、水系、GDP与森林火灾的关系,绘制火点分布图,建立居民点缓冲区Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ区,道路缓冲区Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ区,水系缓冲区Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ区,和4个GDP缓冲区,剖析云南省文山州森林火灾分布特征。结果表明：文山州道路缓冲区Ⅱ区、居民点缓冲区Ⅱ区、水系缓冲区Ⅲ区、GDP缓冲区Ⅰ区发生森林火灾的次数最多,火灾风险等级最高;2012-2015年和2016-2019年森林火灾次数在居民点、道路和水系缓冲区内均服从正态分布,道路、居民缓冲区Ⅱ区森林火灾次数分别占60.28%、62.30%,53.73%、59.01%,缓冲区Ⅰ、Ⅲ区均在28%以下;水系缓冲区Ⅲ区分别占37.85%、39.34%,其他区域呈阶梯式下降,2012-2015年文山州水系缓冲区林火次数Ⅱ区>Ⅳ区>Ⅰ区,2016-2019年Ⅳ区>Ⅱ区>Ⅰ区。2012-2019年平均火灾下降率排序为GDP缓冲区>水系缓冲区>居民点缓冲区>道路缓冲区。GDP缓冲区Ⅱ区、居民点缓冲区Ⅲ区、水系缓冲区Ⅰ区森林火灾数量下降率最高,分别是89.74%、83.67%、80%。因此,森林火灾防控管理优先级为道路缓冲区>居民点缓冲区>水系缓冲区>GDP缓冲区;可优先考虑道路缓冲区Ⅱ区、居民点缓冲区Ⅱ区、水系缓冲区Ⅲ区、GDP缓冲区Ⅰ区的森林火灾防控。研究可为文山州及云南省森林火灾防范提供技术支持。     

Statistics for fire prevention in Sweden

The aim of the study is to gather and analyse data on various numbers of activities, risk sources and causes of fires in order to find out to what extent existing data could be used as a baseline to improve fire prevention at a local level. The investigations and analyses use data from Swedish authorities, organisations and insurance companies from 1922 up to the present. There are some comparisons with international data included. The available fire statistics are mainly consequence-related. Data linked to activities, risk sources and causes of fires is scarce. The study shows that existing data is not structured for systematic fire prevention. To radically reduce the number of fires a change from a focus on firefighting and emergency response to a focus on systematic fire prevention is needed, which from the perspective of the fire and rescue service, is a very large step. This in turn requires improved statistics, education, and leadership, methodologies and tools for systematic fire prevention.     

火灾发生率与社会经济因素的灰色关联度分析

影响火灾发生的因素非常复杂。选取人均国民生产总值、人口密度、大专以上人口比例等三个社会经济因素，应用灰色关联度分析的方法，研究了它们与火灾发生率的关系。研究结果表明，这三个社会经济因素都与火灾发生率正相关，教育程度越高、经济越发达、人口密度越大的地区，火灾的发生率越高。     

Housing factors and fires in two metropolitan boroughs

This paper investigates the types of dwellings and households which are most at risk from fires. Previous analyses using aggregated data have shown that there are correlations between fire incidence and certain indices of social, economic and housing conditions. The present study is based on socio-economic characteristics of particular dwellings involved in fires; data for two years were obtained from two metropolitan boroughs.The main finding is that there is a higher fire risk per dwelling in council flats than in other types of property. Properties in the reteable value range £126 – £150 p.a. are more susceptible to fires. Households which experience fires appear to have more contacts with the local social services department than households which are free of fires. Households with several children and adults appear to have a higher fire risk than smaller households.     

Fire Risk Assessment of Residential Buildings Based on Fire Statistics from China

Fire statistics provide valuable information for the assessment of future fire risks. The paper analyses the fire situation in China from 1991 to 2010. The temporal, spatial, and causal fire incident data for the last 6 years have been analyzed to gain an understanding of fire characteristics and the elements affecting fire risks. It is found that the number of fires was observed to be higher during cold winter months, and fires were more frequent during the weekend. The number of fires was lower during nighttime, whereas the number of fire deaths between midnight and 4 a.m. was much higher than at other times of the day. Most fire incidents occurred in residential buildings. In economically developed East China, the fire situation is much more serious. Electrical failures and improperly fire use in daily life were major causes of fire incidents. Based on the statistical data from China’s fire services and the China Statistical Yearbook, the risk of occupant deaths and the risk of direct property loss are calculated to express the risk level in residential buildings. It is found that the risk of occupant deaths had a declining trend over the years. Statistics is considered a useful tool for learning from the actual events, and it helps decision makers develop proactive fire protection measures to reduce fatalities and financial losses caused by fires.     

Cigarette Fires Involving Upholstered Furniture in Residences: The Role that Smokers,Smoker Behavior,and Fire Standard Compliant Cigarettes Play

Residential structure fires pose a significant risk to life and property. A major source of these fires is the ignition of upholstered furniture by cigarettes. It has long been established that cigarettes and other lighted tobacco products could ignite upholstered furniture and were a leading cause of fire deaths in residences. In recent years, states have adopted fire standard compliant cigarettes (‘FSC cigarettes’) that are made with a wrapping paper that contains regularly spaced bands, which increases the likelihood of self-extinguishment. This paper measures the effectiveness of FSC cigarettes on the number of residential fires involving upholstered furniture, and the resulting fatalities, injuries, and extent of flame spread, while accounting for the under-reporting of fire incidents. In total, four models were estimated using fire department data from 2002 to 2011. The results provide evidence that FSC cigarettes, on average, reduced the number of residential fires by 45%, reduced fatalities by 23%, and extent of flame spread by 27% in 2011. No effect on injuries was found. Within each state, effectiveness is moderated by the number of smokers and their consumption patterns. In general, FSC cigarettes are more effective in places with a large smoking population who engage in heavier smoking. There is a very limited effect on the lightest of smokers, suggesting behavioral differences between heavy and light smokers that influence fire risk.     

基于博弈论组合赋权的森林火灾风险评估

为了对森林火灾进行深入研究,本文以常州市森林为研究区域,提出适应森林火灾的风险评估指标体系.通过GIS软件对基础地理数据进行分析处理,采用基于博弈论的思想进行组合赋权得到综合权重指数,建立森林火灾风险值模型,最后求得组合赋权方法的风险值等级.结果表明:在本评估模型下,溧阳市的森林火灾风险等级为高,金坛区为中等,新北区、...     

Mapping areas at elevated risk of large-scale structure loss using Monte Carlo simulation and wildland fire modeling

This work presents, and demonstrates through application to California, a data-driven methodology that can be used to identify areas at elevated risk of experiencing wildland fires capable of causing large-scale structure loss. A 2D Eulerian level set fire spread model is used as the computational engine for Monte Carlo simulation with ignition points placed randomly across the landscape. For each randomly-placed ignition point, wind and weather conditions are also selected randomly from a 10-year climatology that has been developed by others using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale weather model at a resolution of 2 km. Fuel and topography inputs are obtained from LANDFIRE. Housing density is estimated from 2010 Census block data. For each randomly-selected combination of ignition location and wind/weather, fire progression is modeled so that fire area and number of impacted structures can be recorded. This is repeated for over 100 million discrete ignition points across California to generate “heat maps” of fire probability, fire consequence, and fire risk. In this work, fire volume (spatial integral of burned area and flame length) is used as a proxy for fire probability since quickly spreading fires with large flame lengths are most likely to escape initial attack and become extended attack fires. Fire consequence is taken as the number of impacted structures. Fire risk is then estimated as the product of probability and consequence. The methodology is assessed comparing the resultant fire risk raster with perimeters from California's 20 most damaging fires as tabulated by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CALFIRE). It is found that these historical perimeters from damaging fires correlate well with areas identified as high risk in the Monte Carlo simulation, suggesting that this methodology may be capable of identifying areas where similarly damaging fires may occur in the future.     

Integrating models to evaluate and map grassland fire risk zones in Hulunbuir of Inner Mongolia,China

Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated the disruptive effects of grassland fire on the Hulunbuir grassland of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. The study selected variables for fire risk assessment using a combination of data collection and evaluation methods: geographic information systems, remote sensing, and statistical yearbook data. The data evaluation resulted in eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories: fuel, fire climate, accessibility, human–social factors, and topography. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into a model and used to estimate the grassland fire risk index. Within the index, four categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: extreme, high, moderate, and low. Approximately half (54.33%) of the study area was predicted to fall within the extreme or high risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: extreme, 46.49%; high, 23.66%; moderate, 17.06%; and low, 12.79%. The mean correct prediction from the model was 76.30%. The model and results could aid in spatial decision making practices and in preventative grassland management strategies.     

A Risk-Based Method of Deriving Design Fires for Evacuation Safety in Buildings

This article presents a risk-based method for building fire safety design. Because the design fire is the most critical aspect of a building fire safety design, this article uses reliability theory to derive design fires from the fire risk acceptance criteria. The fire scenarios are modeled by an event tree, where different fire protection systems are presented as pivotal events. The number of casualties is estimated by the occupant number and the probability that an untenable condition is reached before occupants evacuate to a safe location. Using the probability and consequence of each fire scenario, the expected risk to life is used to integrate the fire risk acceptance criteria into the determination of the target reliability index. A global optimization method is then applied to the reliability index to obtain the design fires for each scenario. A case study was conducted to demonstrate an application of this proposed method.