Technical-economic aspects of the utilization of geothermal waters

This paper reports on the world energy consumption between 1960 and 1984 from primary energy sources (coal, natural gas, oil, hydropower, nuclear energy) and the same in percentages from 1925. This highlights the diminishing role of coal and the increased consumption of gas and oil. The latter has stabilized around 42% of the total after the drop in demand resulting from the oil crisis of 1973.The world energy consumption has then been divided into industrialized and developing countries. It appears that the latter, with a population equal to 68% of the total world population, consumed 23% of the world energy in 1982. Furthermore, the consumption figures show that the demand for domestic energy is much smaller in developing countries, and it is well-known that domestic energy consumed is one of the parameters used to assess standard of living.The total installed electric capacity throughout the world is then reported, divided between developed and developing countries, showing that the latter consumed 11% of all the electricity generated in the world in 1981. The world installed electric power of geothermal origin at the end of 1985 is shown, along with estimates for 1990. Geothermal energy represents 0.2% of the world electric power. This is obviously a small figure and indicates that geothermal energy plays a minor role on the world energy scene. However, if we distinguish between industrialized and developing countries, we can observe that, with their currently limited electrical consumption but good geothermal prospects, the developing countries could achieve quite a significant contribution to their total electric energy from that of geothermal origin, increasing at the moment from 3 to 19%.Finally, a comparison is made between electricity generating costs of different sources, showing that geothermal energy is competitive. A table illustrates the world evolution in installed geothermal capacity from 1950 to 1985.The non-electric uses of geothermal energy, on the other hand, have a rather insignificant role in both the developing and industrialized countries. It is unlikely that geothermal energy will ever achieve a greater significance in this sector, with a few rare exceptions.     

The ‘sub-trigger’ crisis: An economic analysis of flexible stock policies

This paper investigates the value of international cooperation during an oil supply disruption. The International Energy Agency provides the aegis for energy cooperation among the industrialized countries, but only an enormous disruption would ‘trigger’ the Agency's emergency mechanism. Smaller (‘sub-trigger’) disruptions have occurred three times in the past decade, and twice, in 1973–1974, and again in 1979, the result was havoc in the international oil markets and substantial economic damage. General consensus credits oil inventory accumulation with exacerbating these shocks and decumulation with averting similar problems during the 1980 disruption. The paper employs a small short-run econometric model of the oil market to examine inventory behaviour and to test coordinated government stockpile drawdowns (termed ‘flexible stock policies’) which have been proposed to address these issues. Impacts on GNP are obtained by solving the oil market model simultaneously with an econometric model of the US macro-economy.     

Communication on energy Renewable energy and environment policies in Africa

Energy policies in Africa, as in most other developing regions, have been in a state of flux ever since petroleum-based fuel prices began to rise significantly from late 1973. For African countries, the timing of this increase in energy prices could not have been at a worse juncture. In the early 1970s, many African countries — especially those in the Sudano-Sahelian region, had been ravaged by years of drought, which had seriously adverse impacts on food production. When energy crisis was superimposed on an already persistent food crisis on a group of developing countries whose economies were not robust and resilient enough to successfully withstand even one of such major crises, the results were predictable and catastrophic.     

Monitoring changes in economy-wide energy efficiency: From energy–GDP ratio to composite efficiency index

Since the 1973 world oil crisis, monitoring trends in energy efficiency at the economy-wide level has been an important component of energy strategy in many countries. To support this effort, various energy efficiency-related indicators have been developed. We examine some classical indicators which are often found in national and international energy studies in the 1970s and 1980s. We then describe the recent developments in using the index decomposition analysis to give an economy-wide composite energy efficiency index based on a bottom-up approach. This composite index is superior to the classical indicators as an economy-wide energy efficiency measure and has lately been adopted by a growing number of countries for national energy efficiency trend monitoring.     

Implementation of coal development programs and the future role of indonesia as a potential coal supplier in the southwest Pacific region

The 1973 oil crisis and the increased domestic oil consumption during the 1970s made Indonesia aware of the vulnerability of its petroleum-based economy. Since oil—a limited energy resource—had formed the main source of foreign exchange earnings for decades, a policy of diversification of energy away from oil was imperative in order to meet the increasing energy demand in the country, while saving the valuable commodity for export purposes. An ambitious program to develop other energy resources, in particular coal, started with the rehabilitation and expansion of the two state-owned coal-mines in Sumatra. The coal produced was expected to fuel the newly built coal-fired power plants and the expanding cement industry.Aware of the limited available funds, the Government of Indonesia invited foreign investors to participate in the development of the nation's coal potential, especially in Kalimantan. The exploration efforts of these contractors resulted in the identification of vast reserves of coal that, when fully developed, would have been sufficient to meet the expected domestic coal demand. However, because of the world-wide recession and the sharp drop in oil revenue, ambitious construction programs in the power sector and the cement industry had to be restrained and coal consumption projections dropped substantially.In view of the vast coal potential identified, which in general is amenable to inexpensive openpit mining, and the large number of contractors involved in the development projects, it is anticipated that production capacity toward the end of the 1980s will far exceed domestic demand. Since the other ASEAN member countries and the northern industrialized Asian countries will be potential net importers of coal and in view of Indonesia's favorable geographic location, there is reason to believe that excess Indonesian coal can be allocated to the aforementioned export markets.     

Energy problems and policies in developing countries

This paper evaluates trends in energy consumption and supply, national responses in restructuring the energy sector emanating from the global oil price increases of 1973–74 and 1979–80, as well as efforts to restructure the economic systems in developing nations. The analysis reveals diverse trends and effects of measures taken but concludes by pointing to the capital constraints and intensification of energy consumption due to various aspects of economic development compounding the energy problems faced by these countries. The implications of past trends and efforts are summarized to conclude that unless efforts are mounted worlwide to mitigate the problems of these nations, the global community could be affected by a growing and widespread crisis.     

Electric power in ASEAN countries: A shifting fuel mix

After the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, the ASEAN countries took measures to lessen their dependence on oil. Their concern is reflected in the electric power sector, the largest single end-user of primary energy in most countries. This article describes how the ASEAN countries are shifting the pattern of their fuel mix for electric power generation from oil to other sources of energy, with a preference for domestic energy resources. Singapore, which has no indigenous energy resources, is the single exception. Data from Brunei are not yet available.     

Impacts of energy R&D strategies of OECD members on the U.S.

During the past 20 years, responses to the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the subsequent unprecedented world-oil price increases established by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries by oil-poor member countries of the OECD, such as France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Sweden, have spawned formidable competitors in the global energy-technology marketplace for U.S. firms. Protection from the economic ramifications of high imported oil use and the recognition of the advantages of developing competitive technology exports provided a sustained motivation for many national governments to make substantial expenditures for the development of advanced energy technologies. These national strategies have produced competitive industrial capabilities in nuclear-reactor, combined-cycle power-plant, solar-photovoltaic, clean coal-combustion, biomass, and fuel-cell technologies that represent growth opportunities in industrialized countries as well as the developed world during the next several decades. This erosion of the relative U.S. competitive position in international energy-technology markets is likely to impact the U.S. balance of trade negatively in the future.     

Energy-thrift investments in France

French governmental policy since the oil crisis of November, 1973 has placed curbing inflation as a higher priority than energy conservation.     

Contrasts in Soviet and American energy policies

West Europeans, Japanese and Americans are accustomed to thinking of their own market-based economic systems as more flexible, hence more rational, than the rigid central planning systems employed in most Communist countries. It is startling, however, to compare the energy policies of the two different groups of countries. Dr Wright contends that Communist planners are, by and large, pursuing a course of cautious, deliberate, rational energy decisions based (both domestically and internationally) on relative cost and price. In contrast, capitalist governments have shown us a pattern of draconian measures involving quantitative restrictions, suspension of the market mechanism, government manipulation of prices, encouragement and protection of monopoly — and even, during the energy panic of 1973–1974, the attempted central planning of crude oil and refined products. In spite of official claims to the countrary, the results in the capitalist countries have been anything but rational.     

Present status and potential role of geothermal energy in the world

Geothermal energy has come of age as an energy source. It is found in most parts of the world and is harnessed by conventional technology. Commercial production on the scale of hundreds of MW has been undertaken for over three decades both for electricity generation and direct utilization. Some 80 countries have identified geothermal resources, and about 50 have quantifiable geothermal utilization at present. Electricity is produced from geothermal in 21 countries (total production 38 TWh/a) and direct application is recorded in 35 countries (34 TWh/a). Geothermal electricity production is equally common in industrialized and developing countries, but plays a more important role in the latter. Apart from China, direct use is mainly in the industrialized countries and Central and Eastern Europe. Most of the developing countries as well as Central and Eastern European countries still lack trained manpower, but there is a surplus in many industrialized countries. During 1973–1992, investments in geothermal energy amounted to approximately 22 billion USD. The large share of the private sector in the investments shows its confidence in this energy source. Data presented in the WEC Survey of Energy Resources 1995 on the “new renewables” (geothermal, solar, wind, and tidal energy) shows that geothermal has the largest installed electrical capacity (61%) and electricity production (81%) in the world of these four sources.     

The causality relationship between energy consumption and GDP in G-11 countries revisited

This paper explores whether energy conservation policies can be implemented in countries with the same level of development. That is, is restraining energy consumption without compromising economic growth feasible in all industrialized countries? A new Granger non-causality testing procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto [1995, Journal of Econometrics 66, 225–250] is applied to re-investigate the relationship, if any, between energy consumption and income in 11 major industrialized countries. The results clearly do not support the view that energy consumption and income are neutral with respect to each other, except in the case of the United Kingdom, Germany and Sweden where a neutral relationship is found. Bi-directional causality in the United States and uni-directional running from energy consumption to GDP in Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland are found. This indicates that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the latter five countries. Further, the causality relationship appears to be uni-directional but reversed for France, Italy and Japan which implies that, in these three countries, energy conservation may be viable without being detrimental to economic growth.     

Energy conservation: The need for a sharper institutional focus

Improved efficiency of energy usage has a new role to play in economic growth in both developed and developing countries. Economic pricing of energy is central to effective energy conservation policies. But even when such policies are pursued, there are a number of barriers which inhibit the effective working of the market — in particular, the fragmentation of responsibility for decisions affecting energy use (both within individual governmetal systems and amongst the myriad of individual consumers involved), and lack of appreciation of the scope for increased efficiency and of what can be achieved technically. Governmental intervention is necessary to overcome market imperfections. The form will vary according to political philosophy and social and institutional patterns. Experience in the industrialized countries, with a varied institutional response, can provide valuable guidelines for developing countries, whose importance in commercial energy markets is increasing sharply and could prove a crucial factor in times of market disruption.     

高油价下的亚太国家能源政策

国际市场油价不断攀升,对亚太发展中国家经济增长带来巨大影响和挑战。许多国家都采取各种措施,积极应对,调整和制定能源政策,通过改善提高能源利用效率,鼓励开发利用可再生能源,积极开展区域合作,优化资源配置,降低对石油资源的依赖,保障能源安全。本文分析了当前油价对经济发展的影响,介绍了部分亚太国家应对油价上涨的能源政策,指出保障能源安全,实现可持续发展是亚太国家能源政策的唯一选择。     

Climate-related electricity demand-side management in oil-exporting countries—the case of the United Arab Emirates

The oil crisis of the 1970s has increased the concern about the continuity of oil imports flow to major oil-importing developed countries. Numerous policy measures including electricity demand-side management (DSM) programs have been adopted in such countries. These measures aim at reducing the growing need for electricity power that increases the dependency on imported foreign oil and damages the environment. On the other hand, the perception that energy can be obtained at very low cost in oil-rich countries led to less attention being paid to the potential of DSM policies in these countries. This paper discusses such potential using the case of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Since air conditioning is a major source of electric energy consumption, the relationship between climate conditions and electric energy consumption is considered. An electricity demand model is constructed using time series techniques. The fitted model seems to represent these relationships rather well. Forecasts for electricity consumption using the estimated model indicate that a small reduction in cooling degrees requirement might induce a significant reduction in electric energy demand. Hence, a DSM program is proposed with policy actions to include, among others, measures to reduce cooling degrees requirement.     

Renewable energy and coal use in Turkey

Turkey becomes more dependent on foreign countries for fulfilling its energy needs day by day. While 77% of the overall primary energy consumption in 1970 was met by the domestic energy sources, this percentage decreased to 28% in 2003. As for the electricity production, while 89% of the produced electricity was produced by using the domestic sources, this percentage decreased to 68% in 1970 and 44% in 2003. The percentage of dependence on foreign countries increased year by year and reached 56% in 2003. The energy sources of Turkey are renewable energy sources and coal. If both of these energy sources are used effectively, Turkey will have a capacity to produce its overall electricity production using its own sources. The incorrect policies applied in Turkey introduced oil as a primary energy source for electricity production in 1970s and Turkey defrayed the cost of this wrong application severely by oil crisis. After 2000, natural gas, which was completely imported, was introduced as an energy source and its share in electricity production reached 45%. It is vital for Turkey to question this situation in order to ensure a sustainable development using reliable energy sources.     

Communications on energy oil and economics

Looking at the prolonged depression which has gripped the industrialized world following the quadrupling of oil prices by OPEC, the author considers that most of the blame lies with the governments of the major importing countries. Instead of relying on monetary policies, they should instead concentrate on the direct manipulation of employment.     

Structural change and energy efficiency in industry

The change in the ratio of energy consumed to industrial production is examined over the years 1968–1980. Changes in the composition of industry are analysed, creating a better picture of movements in physical efficiency of energy use. The medium-term trends show the significance of the 1973 oil crisis, the effects being contrary to those of intuition. The implications of the two recessions for efficiency and industrial structure are described in detail. The role of demand, often relegated to an incidental consideration, is brought to the fore. In the years following 1973 it appears more important than ex post substitution in production, and with this comes a particular implication for the use of aggregate production functions.