Multi-criteria assessment of new and renewable energy power plants

The multi-criteria evaluation of new and renewable technologies demonstrates the potential analysis of complex systems. Every energy system under consideration is an entity by itself, defined by the respective number of parameters which are deterministically interrelated according to the physical laws. Sustainability indicators take into account the economic and environmental resources parameters. This paper presents selection of criteria and options for the new and renewable energy technologies assessment based on the analysis and synthesis of parameters under the information deficiency method. In order to present an evaluation of the new energy technologies, a number of options featuring some of the characteristics measured by the selected sustainability indicators are taken into consideration. For each option under consideration, the sustainability indicators are defined in order to verify their rating under the specific constraints and to obtain the generalised index of sustainability rating of all options. The aim of this paper is to define energy indicators used in the assessment of energy systems which meet the sustainability criterion. In this respect, the following indicators are taken into consideration: energy resources, environment capacity, social indicators and economic indicators.     

An analytical method for the measurement of energy system sustainability in urban areas

Assessing the sustainability of urban energy systems and forecasting their development are important topics that have been the focus of recent research. In this paper, an approach for the measurement the sustainability of an urban energy system is introduced. The approach is based on prediction of the future energy needs within the consuming sectors of a city by specification of energy system development scenarios and validation of the scenarios by a multi-criteria decision method. Prediction of energy needs for the area of the city using the simulation model, model for analysis of the energy demands (MAED) is done. Finish the last level of aggregation, using the method of multi-criteria analysis, is getting the General Index of Sustainability (GIS), which shows a measure of the validity or viability, or quality of the investigated scenarios. In this way, the mathematical and graphical made a synthesis of all the indicators that are relevant to sustainable development. The accuracy in determining the mean of the GIS is checked by calculating the standard deviation. Also, a measure of reliability of the preference when watching a few consecutive scenarios was performed. The defined scenarios take into account the utilization of different energy sources, the exploitation of existing energy plants and infrastructure, and the building of new plants. The sustainability criteria are described by a unique set of economic, social and ecological indicators. The new approach was used to forecast the development of sustainable energy system in Belgrade, Serbia.     

Renewable energy technologies for the Indian power sector: mitigation potential and operational strategies

The future economic development trajectory for India is likely to result in rapid and accelerated growth in energy demand, with attendant shortages and problems. Due to the predominance of fossil fuels in the generation mix, there are large negative environmental externalities caused by electricity generation. The power sector alone has a 40 percent contribution to the total carbon emissions. In this context, it is imperative to develop and promote alternative energy sources that can lead to sustainability of the energy–environment system. There are opportunities for renewable energy technologies under the new climate change regime as they meet the two basic conditions to be eligible for assistance under UNFCCC mechanisms: they contribute to global sustainability through GHG mitigation; and, they conform to national priorities by leading to the development of local capacities and infrastructure. This increases the importance of electricity generation from renewables. Considerable experience and capabilities exist in the country on renewable electricity technologies. But a number of techno–economic, market-related, and institutional barriers impede technology development and penetration. Although at present the contribution of renewable electricity is small, the capabilities promise the flexibility for responding to emerging economic, socio–environmental and sustainable development needs. This paper discusses the renewable and carbon market linkages and assesses mitigation potential of power sector renewable energy technologies under global environmental intervention scenarios for GHG emissions reduction. An overall energy system framework is used for assessing the future role of renewable energy in the power sector under baseline and different mitigation scenarios over a time frame of 35 years, between 2000 to 2035. The methodology uses an integrated bottom-up modelling framework. Looking into past performance trends and likely future developments, analysis results are compared with officially set targets for renewable energy. The paper also assesses the CDM investment potential for power sector renewables. It outlines specific policy interventions for overcoming the barriers and enhancing deployment of renewables for the future.     

Sustainability deterioration of electricity generation in Brazil

The power generation sector in Brazil is usually considered to have a high level of sustainability because of its large share of hydropower, about 70%. The annual growth rate of the Brazilian power sector is about 4%/year with a growing capacity addition of fossil fuels, which indicates a deterioration regarding sustainability. This work utilizes multi-criteria analysis coupled with composite indicators to infer the sustainability evolution of the power generation sector in Brazil from 2010 to 2016. Seven criteria were considered: emission of greenhouse gases, immobilized area, use of fuel resources, water use, morbidity, energy generation reliability and energy efficiency. The assessment evidenced wind power and nuclear power plants as the most sustainable options for capacity addition after hydropower. Co-generation and combined cycle technologies should be encouraged in natural gas and biomass projects in order to reduce impacts on sustainability. The assessment is interdisciplinary and admits tradeoffs amongst different impacts and benefits, for instance, environmental impacts versus energy generation reliability. It is proposed that sustainability assessments be incorporated to the formal process of decision making in order to reduce opposition and facilitate obtaining consensus among different stakeholders.     

Towards a sustainable hydrogen economy: A multi-criteria sustainability appraisal of competing hydrogen futures

The ‘hydrogen economy’ has the potential to provide a sustainable and secure energy system, and there is a wide and growing literature promoting and exploring different possible hydrogen futures. However, despite broad agreement that hydrogen could make a significant contribution to energy policy goals, the literature exhibits strong disagreements about the form that a future hydrogen economy should take. Visions of the future select, combine and reconfigure individual hydrogen generation, storage, transport and end-use technologies into more or less mutually compatible energy and transportation systems, which embody deeply contested and conflicting views of sustainability.

This paper describes the application of a novel foresight methodology, which combined participatory scenario development, using a backcasting approach, with an expert-stakeholder multi-criteria mapping (MCM) process, in order to provide an integrated, transparent assessment of the environmental, social and economic sustainability of six possible future hydrogen energy systems for the UK. The findings suggest that: hydrogen has the potential to deliver substantial sustainability benefits over the status quo, or, business as usual, futures, but that hydrogen is not automatically a sustainable option; carbon emissions are the single most important dimension of sustainability, but that issues other than carbon and cost need to be considered if hydrogen is truly to deliver greater sustainability. Furthermore, there was significant disagreement about which visions were considered more or less sustainable. These findings reflect two important sources of divergence in the final sustainability rankings: uncertainties and contested views of sustainability.     

Incorporating socio-environmental considerations into project assessment models using multi-criteria analysis: A case study of Sri Lankan hydropower projects

Before commissioning any energy projects, conducting robust assessments of different options in terms of their economic and socio-environmental impacts is important for successful project implementation. Yet, there is currently a lack of tools that simultaneously assess sustainability impacts; instead, they are often investigated separately, which gives decision makers somehow disintegrated information. Thus the main objective of this study is to examine how to incorporate socio-environmental considerations into project assessment models. The multi-criteria analysis is applied to the case study of Sri Lankan hydropower projects as an illustrative example. The estimated quantitative relationship between economic, environmental and social impacts of hydropower development is presented in this study. Such estimation, using sustainability indicators of hydropower projects, enables us to understand marginal trade-offs among economic, environmental and social objectives of hydropower development. Hence, this would provide an overview of potential impacts of different scenarios that are designed to be implemented and indicate an optimum mix of hydropower generation.     

Prioritizing sustainable electricity production technologies: MCDM approach

Economic, technological, social, and political developments stressed the need for shifts in energy-mix. Therefore it is important to provide a rationale for sustainable decision making in energy policy. The aim of this paper is to develop the multi-criteria decision support framework for choosing the most sustainable electricity production technologies. Given selection of sustainable energy sources involves many conflicting criteria, multi-criteria decision methods MULTIMOORA and TOPSIS were employed for the analysis. The indicator system covering different approaches of sustainability was established. The analysis proved that the future energy policy should be oriented towards the sustainable energy technologies, namely water and solar thermal ones. It is the proposed multi-criteria assessment framework that can constitute a basis for further sub-regional optimization of sustainable energy policy.     

Sustainable development of the Belgrade energy system

Cities are the most important energy consumers of any country in all energy vector components. Nowadays, Belgrade as a cultural, educational, scientific, administrative, political, and business center of the region with its own structure of production, transportation, services, and urban system, represents significant consumer of different energy forms. Only useful and final energy is delivered to energy consuming sectors of a city. Simulation model MAED was used in this paper to estimate energy demand in city for a long time period. On the basis of energy demand forecast for three major ‘energy consumers’ (sectors of household/service, industry, and transportation) until 2020, the sustainable development ‘scenarios’ of Belgrade energy system are developed (2005–2010, 2010–2015, 2015–2020). For each ‘scenario’, the energy systems of primary resources are determined so to satisfy the predicted differences in energy consumption for the mentioned time intervals until 2020. In this case different ‘scenarios’ are evaluated. The evaluation of ‘scenarios’ sustainability is obtained by method of multi-criteria analysis. Using energy indices for sustainable development, the following indices are taken into consideration for the assessment of scenario sustainability: economical, social, and environmental. The obtained results can be used by experts in decision-making process.     

Hydrogen fuel and the Belgian transport sector: A critical assessment from an environmental and sustainable development perspective

This study provides an in-depth analysis of the potential role of hydrogen (H₂) in the Belgian transport sector in the context of sustainable and environmentally friendly growth. This paper starts by examining the energy-climate roadmap and the emission mitigation programme defined by the Belgian federal government in the context of environmental sustainability. Then, the Belgian situation is critically evaluated in light of the needs for H₂ fuel in the transport sector, as well as issues about a roadmap on environmental considerations for a sustainable future, while preserving the country's economic stakes. There are several key advances in this direction, especially as H₂ is seen as one of the best viable options for sustained development, unlike other possibilities. This paper also highlights some limitations that make it difficult to accelerate the transition to a sustainable H₂ energy future. Although there are many interests in favour of an advanced and non-polluting transport system, there are differing views on the approach to be taken in political decision-making at national level. Therefore, this study will help public authorities to better integrate environmental and sustainability issues in the context of a transition to a comprehensive hydrogen economy in the current transport sector.     

Shaping a sustainable energy future for India: Management challenges

Most of the studies on the Indian energy sector focus on the possible future scenarios of Indian energy system development without considering the management dimension to the problem—how to ensure a smooth transition to reach the desired future state. The purpose of this paper is to highlight some sector management concerns to a sustainable energy future in the country. The paper follows a deductive approach and reviews the present status and possible future energy outlooks from the existing literature. This is followed by a strategy outline to achieve long-term energy sustainability. Management challenges on the way to such a sustainable future are finally presented. The paper finds that the aspiration of becoming an economic powerhouse and the need to eradicate poverty will necessarily mean an increase in energy consumption unless a decoupling of energy and GDP growth is achieved. Consequently, the energy future of the country is eminently unsustainable. A strategy focussing on demand reduction, enhanced access, use of local resources and better management practices is proposed here. However, a sustainable path faces a number of challenges from the management and policy perspectives.     

SWOT analyses of the national energy sector for sustainable energy development

A holistic perspective of various energy stakeholders regarding the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOTs) of the energy sector in Macedonia is utilized as baseline to diagnose the current state and to sketch future action lines towards sustainable energy development. The resulting SWOT analyses pointed to the progressive adoption of European Union (EU) standards in energy policy and regulation as the most important achievement in the energy sector. The most important problems the national energy sector faces are scarce domestic resources and unfavorable energy mix, low electricity prices, a high degree of inefficiency in energy production and use, as well as insufficient institutional and human capacities. The formulated portfolio of actions towards enabling sustainable energy development urges the adoption of a comprehensive energy strategy built upon sustainability principles, intensified utilization of the natural gas, economic prices of electricity, structural changes in industry, promotion of energy efficiency and renewables, including Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects, enforcement of EU environmental standards and meeting the environmental requirements, as well as institutional and human capacity building.     

An Analytical Network Process (ANP) evaluation of alternative fuels for electricity generation in Turkey

In this paper, we present an Analytical Network Process (ANP) model to determine the best fuel mix for electricity generation in Turkey from a sustainable development perspective. The proposed model is implemented in two alternative scenarios. These scenarios are structured along the lines of classification between weak and strong sustainability, and therefore reflect two basic dimensions of sustainability of energy production—environmental protection and sustainable supply of energy resources. The results of the study indicate the gap between goals of sustainable development and energy policies of Turkey in terms of energy security and environmental degradation. Under all alternative scenarios of our model, the highest value alternative is hydropower—domestic, renewable source—while the Turkish electricity sector mainly relies on imported natural gas. The share of nuclear energy is in the range of 8.12–10.21% in our model results, although nuclear energy is not available yet. The calculated percentages of renewable fuels (biomass, geothermal, wind, solar) are 35.7% and 28.9% for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, respectively, while the total percentage of these fuels is 0.18% of the installed capacity of Turkey. The results of our model suggest that the share of renewable fuels in installed capacity should be increased to achieve sustainable development.     

Sustainability estimation of energy system options that use gas and renewable resources for domestic hot water production

Two possible substitutions for fossil fuel used in heat production are biomass and solar energy. This paper presents an evaluation of various energy sources for hot water production in a heating plant. The heating plant was situated in one of the largest municipalities in the city of Belgrade, Serbia. It produces and delivers domestic hot water and energy for heating to approximately 17,000 households. It is possible to use of using renewable energy instead of fossil fuel for producing the thermal energy for the supply of domestic hot water. Hence, in this paper, an evaluation of the sustainability of different energy options for obtaining thermal energy was considered: 1) from gas combustion; 2) from gas combustion and solar collection 3) from biomass combustion 4) from gas and biomass combustion, and 5) from gas and biomass combustion and solar collection. To compare the different energy systems, the method of multi-criteria analysis was utilised. This method integrates various multi-dimensional criteria and provides an efficient method of estimating the sustainability of complex systems. The obtained results were compared by the General Index of Sustainability which is a measure of the complexity of a system. A basic set of energy indicators that relate to different aspects of sustainable development was defined. In this way, the results in the assessment of sustainability of energy options do not depend on the various analysts in decision making.     

Multi-criteria evaluation for the optimal adoption of distributed residential energy systems in Japan

Evaluation of sustainable residential energy system is complex process, in which not only the economic aspect, but also the energetic and environmental effects should be taken into consideration. In this paper, an integrated design and evaluation model has been developed, by combing linear programming and multi-criteria evaluation method, in order to determine the optimal residential energy system while considering different types of information. As an illustrative example, an investigation is conducted for a typical residential building in Kitakyushu, Japan. A set of residential energy alternatives, including both conventional energy and renewable energy applications, are assumed for adoption. Based on the optimal design results from the linear programming, the various alternatives have been assessed against economic, energetic and environmental criteria. According to the evaluation results, currently, renewable energy systems are not competitive unless strong attention is paid to the environmental benefits. All electric system may be a transitional consideration before reaching an actual low carbon residential energy system. Furthermore, the evaluation result is greatly influenced by the criteria priority, as well as the evaluation method.     

A novel multicriteria sustainability investigation of energy storage systems

Affordable, clean, efficient, flexible, and reliable energy storage is an important component of sustainable energy systems. There are several studies in the literature concentrating on improving the sustainability performance of energy storage systems from economic and technical perspectives. However, a comprehensive performance investigation of energy storage systems that take economic, environmental, social, and technical criteria into account is still needed. For that reason, in the present study, it is aimed to perform a complete assessment and analysis of the sustainability of energy storage systems for residential applications in communities and cities. Pumped hydro, conventional batteries, high‐temperature batteries, flow batteries, and hydrogen are the selected energy storage systems. In order to handle the vagueness and ambiguity during the assessment and to eliminate the perceived hesitancy in the decision makers' preferences, an innovative method, a hybrid hesitant fuzzy multicriteria decision‐making (MCDM) methodology composed of hesitant fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (HFAHP) and hesitant fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (HFTOPSIS), is utilized to assess the sustainability of the selected systems. In this study, four different performance criteria: economic (power cost and energy cost), environmental (pollutant emissions, area requirement, wastewater quality, and solid waste production), social (safety, accessibility, ease of use, and public acceptance), and technical (efficiency, storage capacity, cycling limit, and performance degradation) are taken into consideration. The performance evaluation results indicate that technical performance has the highest influence and social performance has the lowest influence when evaluating the sustainability of the selected energy storage systems. And hydrogen has the highest sustainability performance compared with the other selected energy storage options.     

New ways for the integrated appraisal of national energy scenarios: The case of renewable energy use in Austria

Increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources in heat and electricity production is a nationally and internationally acknowledged aim for sustainable development. In this context, the participatory development and appraisal of energy scenarios can be useful for enabling stakeholders to explore future energy options and for supporting the national policy discourse. The five renewable energy scenarios considered refer to Austria in the year 2020. The innovative methodology applied, which was developed as part of the ARTEMIS project, examines possible energy futures paths by combining (1) scenario development; (2) multi-criteria evaluation; and (3) a participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts on the national level. Economic, social, environmental and technological impacts as well as revealed social preferences are used for the ranking of the scenarios. Due to the paramount importance of bioenergy in Austria, special emphasis in the scenario development is put on the contribution of biomass. Two main bioenergy issues and their consideration in the ARTEMIS project are explicitly addressed in this paper: the cascadic utilisation of biomass resources and the demand for land area and land area conflicts. Overall, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied in practice and what insights policy-makers can gain from it. We also explore the methodology's limitations, especially regarding the effort required for participatory scenario building and the availability of stakeholders.     

中国可持续能源发展情景及其碳排放分析

中国目前已经制定了中长期的社会经济发展战略,“十五”规划中也提出了一些战略要点,如可持续发展,科技进步,西部开发战略,城市化和人才战略。如果中国要实现上述预期目标,能源部门应当有那些行动,政府和市场的作用如何?为此的环境代价如何?也确实值得从社会、经济、能源、环境可持续发展的角度,开展上述研究工作。本文简要介绍了研究的方法与思路,情景设计的基本考虑以及主要结论。文章最后还对影响中国能源发展之路的不确定因素进行了分析评价。     

On cost‐effective technical measures to avoid environmental damages of regional energy systems

The production of heat and electricity can cause large environmental impacts and, hence, large costs for society. Those are costs that are seldom taken into consideration. An important question is how the future technical energy systems should be formed if environmental costs were considered as any other good or service, such as raw material, capital and labour. This study comprises cost‐effective technical measures when monetary values of external effects are included in an energy system analysis. It is an analysis of how the present energy system can for society be cost‐effectively reconstructed to be more sustainable. A regional energy system model has been developed to perform the study and it concentrates upon production of heat in single‐family houses, multi‐dwelling buildings, non‐residential premises and district heating systems. The analysis adopts a business economic perspective, using present prices of energy carriers, and a more socio‐economic perspective, in which external costs are included. The result of the analysis is the optimal mix of energy carriers as well as new and existing heating plants that minimizes the costs of satisfying a demand for heat. The results show that it is profitable to invest in new heating plants fuelled with woody biomass. Furthermore, the external costs arising with satisfying the demand for heat can decrease substantially, 60%, by carrying through with the investments that are cost‐effective according to the institutional rules valid today. When monetary values of external costs are taken into consideration, this number is additional 5‐percentage points lower. It is shown that if environmental costs are included it is more expensive to continue with business as usual than it is to reconstruct and run a more sustainable energy system. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Developing a sustainability framework for the assessment of bioenergy systems

The potential for biomass to contribute to energy supply in a low-carbon economy is well recognised. However, for the sector to contribute fully to sustainable development in the UK, specific exploitation routes must meet the three sets of criteria usually recognised as representing the tests for sustainability: economic viability in the market and fiscal framework within which the supply chain operates; environmental performance, including, but not limited to, low carbon dioxide emissions over the complete fuel cycle; and social acceptability, with the benefits of using biomass recognised as outweighing any negative social impacts. This paper describes an approach to developing a methodology to establish a sustainability framework for the assessment of bioenergy systems to provide practical advice for policy makers, planners and the bioenergy industry, and thus to support policy development and bioenergy deployment at different scales. The approach uses multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision-conferencing, to explore how such a process is able to integrate and reconcile the interests and concerns of diverse stakeholder groups.     

Energy conservation policy and environment for a clean and sustainable energy future

One of the most serious difficulties facing humanity is the need for a sustainable future. Maintaining nonrenewable energy resources for future generations is a main purpose of sustainability. However, for sustainable future, produced and consumed energy should support human development all social, economic and environmental dimensions. Problems related with environment and energy shortages have put all circles to the task of actively promoting education in energy conservation. Therefore, many countries have started to identify their responsibility for decreasing the unfavorable effect of high energy use on the environment. The primary contribution of this paper will be to ensure energy conservation policy advices to decrease climate change without effecting economic growth for a clean and sustainable energy future.