Intelligent Cloud IoMT Health Monitoring-Based System for COVID-19

The most common alarming and dangerous disease in the world today is the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The coronavirus is perceived as a group of coronaviruses which causes mild to severe respiratory diseases among human beings. The infection is spread by aerosols emitted from infected individuals during talking, sneezing, and coughing. Furthermore, infection can occur by touching a contaminated surface followed by transfer of the viral load to the face. Transmission may occur through aerosols that stay suspended in the air for extended periods of time in enclosed spaces. To stop the spread of the pandemic, it is crucial to isolate infected patients in quarantine houses. Government health organizations faced a lack of quarantine houses and medical test facilities at the first level of testing by the proposed model. If any serious condition is observed at the first level testing, then patients should be recommended to be hospitalized. In this study, an IoT-enabled smart monitoring system is proposed to detect COVID-19 positive patients and monitor them during their home quarantine. The Internet of Medical Things (IoMT), known as healthcare IoT, is employed as the foundation of the proposed model. The least-squares (LS) method was applied to estimate the linear model parameters for a sequential pilot survey. A statistical sequential analysis is performed as a pilot survey to efficiently collect preliminary data for an extensive survey of COVID-19 positive cases. The Bayesian approach is used, based on the assumption of the random variable for the priori distribution of the data sample. Fuzzy inference is used to construct different rules based on the basic symptoms of COVID-19 patients to make an expert decision to detect COVID-19 positive cases. Finally, the performance of the proposed model was determined by applying a four-fold cross-validation technique.     

Managing the risk of a COVID-19 outbreak from border arrivals

In an attempt to maintain the elimination of COVID-19 in New Zealand, all international arrivals are required to spend 14 days in government-managed quarantine and to return a negative test result before being released. We model the testing, isolation and transmission of COVID-19 within quarantine facilities to estimate the risk of community outbreaks being seeded at the border. We use a simple branching process model for COVID-19 transmission that includes a time-dependent probability of a false-negative test result. We show that the combination of 14-day quarantine with two tests is highly effective in preventing an infectious case entering the community, provided there is no transmission within quarantine facilities. Shorter quarantine periods, or reliance on testing only with no quarantine, substantially increases the risk of an infectious case being released. We calculate the fraction of cases detected in the second week of their two-week stay and show that this may be a useful indicator of the likelihood of transmission occurring within quarantine facilities. Frontline staff working at the border risk exposure to infected individuals and this has the potential to lead to a community outbreak. We use the model to test surveillance strategies and evaluate the likely size of the outbreak at the time it is first detected. We conclude with some recommendations for managing the risk of potential future outbreaks originating from the border.     

Prediction of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases Using Gradient Boosting Regression Method

The fast spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by SARSCoV-2 has become a pandemic and a serious threat to the world. As of May 30, 2020, this disease had infected more than 6 million people globally, with hundreds of thousands of deaths. Therefore, there is an urgent need to predict confirmed cases so as to analyze the impact of COVID-19 and practice readiness in healthcare systems. This study uses gradient boosting regression (GBR) to build a trained model to predict the daily total confirmed cases of COVID-19. The GBR method can minimize the loss function of the training process and create a single strong learner from weak learners. Experiments are conducted on a dataset of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 22, 2020, to May 30, 2020. The results are evaluated on a set of evaluation performance measures using 10-fold cross-validation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the GBR method. The results reveal that the GBR model achieves 0.00686 root mean square error, the lowest among several comparative models.     

Machine Learning Approach for COVID-19 Detection on Twitter

Social networking services (SNSs) provide massive data that can be a very influential source of information during pandemic outbreaks. This study shows that social media analysis can be used as a crisis detector (e.g., understanding the sentiment of social media users regarding various pandemic outbreaks). The novel Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19), commonly known as coronavirus, has affected everyone worldwide in 2020. Streaming Twitter data have revealed the status of the COVID-19 outbreak in the most affected regions. This study focuses on identifying COVID-19 patients using tweets without requiring medical records to find the COVID-19 pandemic in Twitter messages (tweets). For this purpose, we propose herein an intelligent model using traditional machine learning-based approaches, such as support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression (LR), naïve Bayes (NB), random forest (RF), and decision tree (DT) with the help of the term frequency inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) to detect the COVID-19 pandemic in Twitter messages. The proposed intelligent traditional machine learning-based model classifies Twitter messages into four categories, namely, confirmed deaths, recovered, and suspected. For the experimental analysis, the tweet data on the COVID-19 pandemic are analyzed to evaluate the results of traditional machine learning approaches. A benchmark dataset for COVID-19 on Twitter messages is developed and can be used for future research studies. The experiments show that the results of the proposed approach are promising in detecting the COVID-19 pandemic in Twitter messages with overall accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score between 70% and 80% and the confusion matrix for machine learning approaches (i.e., SVM, NB, LR, RF, and DT) with the TF-IDF feature extraction technique.     

A Scenario-Based Evaluation of COVID-19-Related Essential Clinical Resource Demands in China

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a global crisis, and medical systems in many countries are overwhelmed with supply shortages and increasing demands to treat patients due to the surge in cases and severe illnesses. This study aimed to assess COVID-19-related essential clinical resource demands in China, based on different scenarios involving COVID-19 spreads and interventions. We used a susceptible–exposed–infectious–hospitalized/isolated–removed (SEIHR) transmission dynamics model to estimate the number of COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations with corresponding essential healthcare resources needed. We found that, under strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) or mass vaccination of the population, China would be able to contain community transmission and local outbreaks rapidly. However, under scenarios involving a low intensity of implemented NPIs and a small proportion of the population vaccinated, the use of a peacetime–wartime transition model would be needed for medical source stockpiles and preparations to ensure a normal functioning healthcare system. The implementation of COVID-19 vaccines and NPIs in different periods can influence the transmission of COVID-19 and subsequently affect the demand for clinical diagnosis and treatment. An increased proportion of asymptomatic infections in simulations will not reduce the demand for medical resources; however, attention must be paid to the increasing difficulty in containing COVID-19 transmission due to asymptomatic cases. This study provides evidence for emergency preparations and the adjustment of prevention and control strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic. It also provides guidance for essential healthcare investment and resource allocation.     

Impact Assessment of COVID-19 Pandemic Through Machine Learning Models

Ever since its outbreak in the Wuhan city of China, COVID-19 pandemic has engulfed more than 211 countries in the world, leaving a trail of unprecedented fatalities. Even more debilitating than the infection itself, were the restrictions like lockdowns and quarantine measures taken to contain the spread of Coronavirus. Such enforced alienation affected both the mental and social condition of people significantly. Social interactions and congregations are not only integral part of work life but also form the basis of human evolvement. However, COVID-19 brought all such communication to a grinding halt. Digital interactions have failed to enthuse the fervor that one enjoys in face-to-face meets. The pandemic has shoved the entire planet into an unstable state. The main focus and aim of the proposed study is to assess the impact of the pandemic on different aspects of the society in Saudi Arabia. To achieve this objective, the study analyzes two perspectives: the early approach, and the late approach of COVID-19 and the consequent effects on different aspects of the society. We used a Machine Learning based framework for the prediction of the impact of COVID-19 on the key aspects of society. Findings of this research study indicate that financial resources were the worst affected. Several countries are facing economic upheavals due to the pandemic and COVID-19 has had a considerable impact on the lives as well as the livelihoods of people. Yet the damage is not irretrievable and the world’s societies can emerge out of this setback through concerted efforts in all facets of life.     

Utilization of HEVC ChaCha20-Based Selective Encryption for Secure Telehealth Video Conferencing

Coronavirus (COVID-19) is a contagious disease that causes exceptional effect on healthcare organizations worldwide with dangerous impact on medical services within the hospitals. Because of the fast spread of COVID-19, the healthcare facilities could be a big source of disease infection. So, healthcare video consultations should be used to decrease face-to-face communication between clinician and patients. Healthcare video consultations may be beneficial for some COVID-19 conditions and reduce the need for face-to-face contact with a potentially positive patient without symptoms. These conditions are like top clinicians who provide remote consultations to develop treatment methodology and follow-up remotely, patients who consult about COVID-19, and those who have mild symptoms suggestive of the COVID-19 virus. Video consultations are a supplement to, and not a substitute for, telephone consultations. It may also form part of a broader COVID-19 distance care strategy that contains computerized screening, separation of possibly infectious patients within medical services, and computerized video-intensive observing of their intensive care that helps reduce mixing. Nowadays, the spread of the COVID-19 virus helps to expand the use of video healthcare consultations because it helps to exchange experiences and remote medical consultations, save costs and health procedures used to cope with the pandemic of the COVID-19 virus, and monitor the progress of treatment plans, moment by moment from a distance with precision, clarity and ease. From this perspective, this paper introduces a high-efficiency video coding (HEVC) ChaCha20-based selective encryption (SE) scheme for secure healthcare video Consultations. The proposed HEVC ChaCha20-based SE scheme uses the ChaCha20 for encrypting the sign bits of the Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) and Motion Vector Difference (MVD) in the HEVC entropy phase. The main achievement of HEVC ChaCha20-based SE scheme is encrypting the most sensitive video bits with keeping low delay time, fixed bit rate of the HEVC, and format compliance. Experimental tests guarantee that the proposed HEVC ChaCha20-based SE scheme can ensure the confidentiality of the healthcare video consultations which has become easy to transmit through the internet.     

The economic value of quarantine is higher at lower case prevalence,with quarantine justified at lower risk of infection

Some infectious diseases, such as COVID-19 or the influenza pandemic of 1918, are so harmful that they justify broad-scale social distancing. Targeted quarantine can reduce the amount of indiscriminate social distancing needed to control transmission. Finding the optimal balance between targeted versus broad-scale policies can be operationalized by minimizing the total amount of social isolation needed to achieve a target reproductive number. Optimality is achieved by quarantining on the basis of a risk threshold that depends strongly on current disease prevalence, suggesting that very different disease control policies should be used at different times or places. Aggressive quarantine is warranted given low disease prevalence, while populations with a higher base rate of infection should rely more on social distancing by all. The total value of a quarantine policy rises as case counts fall, is relatively insensitive to vaccination unless the vaccinated are exempt from distancing policies, and is substantially increased by the availability of modestly more information about individual risk of infectiousness.     

Fuzzy Based Decision Making Approach for Evaluating the Severity of COVID-19 Pandemic in Cities of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020 stating that it is a worldwide danger and requires imminent preventive strategies to minimise the loss of lives. COVID-19 has now affected millions across 211 countries in the world and the numbers continue to rise. The information discharged by the WHO till June 15, 2020 reports 8,063,990 cases of COVID-19. As the world thinks about the lethal malady for which there is yet no immunization or a predefined course of drug, the nations are relentlessly working at the most ideal preventive systems to contain the infection. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is additionally combating with the COVID-19 danger as the cases announced till June 15, 2020 reached the count of 132,048 with 1,011 deaths. According to the report released by the KSA on June 14, 2020, more than 4,000 cases of COVID-19 pandemic had been registered in the country. Tending to the impending requirement for successful preventive instruments to stem the fatalities caused by the disease, our examination expects to assess the severity of COVID-19 pandemic in cities of KSA. In addition, computational model for evaluating the severity of COVID-19 with the perspective of social influence factor is necessary for controlling the disease. Furthermore, a quantitative evaluation of severity associated with specific regions and cities of KSA would be a more effective reference for the healthcare sector in Saudi Arabia. Further, this paper has taken the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique for quantitatively assessing the severity of COVID-19 pandemic in cities of KSA. The discoveries and the proposed structure would be a practical, expeditious and exceptionally precise evaluation system for assessing the severity of the pandemic in the cities of KSA. Hence these urban zones clearly emerge as the COVID-19 hotspots. The cities require suggestive measures of health organizations that must be introduced on a war footing basis to counter the pandemic. The analysis tabulated in our study will assist in mapping the rules and building a systematic structure that is immediate need in the cities with high severity levels due to the pandemic.     

Effect of Weather on the Spread of COVID-19 Using Eigenspace Decomposition

Since the end of 2019, the world has suffered from a pandemic of the disease called COVID-19. WHO reports show approximately 113 M confirmed cases of infection and 2.5 M deaths. All nations are affected by this nightmare that continues to spread. Widespread fear of this pandemic arose not only from the speed of its transmission: a rapidly changing “normal life” became a fear for everyone. Studies have mainly focused on the spread of the virus, which showed a relative decrease in high temperature, low humidity, and other environmental conditions. Therefore, this study targets the effect of weather in considering the spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 for some confirmed cases in Iraq. The eigenspace decomposition technique was used to analyze the effect of weather conditions on the spread of the disease. Our theoretical findings showed that the average number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has cyclic trends related to temperature, humidity, wind speed, and pressure. We supposed that the dynamic spread of COVID-19 exists at a temperature of 130 F. The minimum transmission is at 120 F, while steady behavior occurs at 160 F. On the other hand, during the spread of COVID-19, an increase in the rate of infection was seen at 125% humidity, where the minimum spread was achieved at 200%. Furthermore, wind speed showed the most significant effect on the spread of the virus. The spread decreases with a wind speed of 45 KPH, while an increase in the infectious spread appears at 50 KPH.     

An Antioxidant Enzyme Therapeutic for COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a significant toll on people worldwide, and there are currently no specific antivirus drugs or vaccines. Herein it is a therapeutic based on catalase, an antioxidant enzyme that can effectively breakdown hydrogen peroxide and minimize the downstream reactive oxygen species, which are excessively produced resulting from the infection and inflammatory process, is reported. Catalase assists to regulate production of cytokines, protect oxidative injury, and repress replication of SARS-CoV-2, as demonstrated in human leukocytes and alveolar epithelial cells, and rhesus macaques, without noticeable toxicity. Such a therapeutic can be readily manufactured at low cost as a potential treatment for COVID-19.     

Optimization Model for Selecting Temporary Hospital Locations During COVID-19 Pandemic

The two main approaches that countries are using to ease the strain on healthcare infrastructure is building temporary hospitals that are specialized in treating COVID-19 patients and promoting preventive measures. As such, the selection of the optimal location for a temporary hospital and the calculation of the prioritization of preventive measures are two of the most critical decisions during the pandemic, especially in densely populated areas where the risk of transmission of the virus is highest. If the location selection process or the prioritization of measures is poor, healthcare workers and patients can be harmed, and unnecessary costs may come into play. In this study, a decision support framework using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and a weighted aggregated sum product assessment model are proposed for selecting the location of a temporary hospital, and a FAHP model is proposed for calculating the prioritization of preventive measures against COVID-19. A case study is performed for Ho Chi Minh City using the proposed decision-making framework. The contribution of this work is to propose a multiple criteria decision-making model in a fuzzy environment for ranking potential locations for building temporary hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of the study can be used to assist decision-makers, such as government authorities and infectious disease experts, in dealing with the current pandemic as well as other diseases in the future. With the entire world facing the global pandemic of COVID-19, many scientists have applied research achievements in practice to help decision-makers make accurate decisions to prevent the pandemic. As the number of cases increases exponentially, it is crucial that government authorities and infectious disease experts make optimal decisions while considering multiple quantitative and qualitative criteria. As such, the proposed approach can also be applied to support complex decision-making processes in a fuzzy environment in different countries.     

Drone-based AI/IoT Framework for Monitoring,Tracking and Fighting Pandemics

Since World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) a global pandemic, the world has changed. All life's fields and daily habits have moved to adapt to this new situation. According to WHO, the probability of such virus pandemics in the future is high, and recommends preparing for worse situations. To this end, this work provides a framework for monitoring, tracking, and fighting COVID-19 and future pandemics. The proposed framework deploys unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), e.g.; quadcopter and drone, integrated with artificial intelligence (AI) and Internet of Things (IoT) to monitor and fight COVID-19. It consists of two main systems; AI/IoT for COVID-19 monitoring and drone-based IoT system for sterilizing. The two systems are integrated with the IoT paradigm and the developed algorithms are implemented on distributed fog units connected to the IoT network and controlled by software-defined networking (SDN). The proposed work is built based on a thermal camera mounted in a face-shield, or on a helmet that can be used by people during pandemics. The detected images, thermal images, are processed by the developed AI algorithm that is built based on the convolutional neural network (CNN). The drone system can be called, by the IoT system connected to the helmet, once infected cases are detected. The drone is used for sterilizing the area that contains multiple infected people. The proposed framework employs a single centralized SDN controller to control the network operations. The developed system is experimentally evaluated, and the results are introduced. Results indicate that the developed framework provides a novel, efficient scheme for monitoring and fighting COVID-19 and other future pandemics.     

Geospatial Analytics for COVID-19 Active Case Detection

Ever since the COVID-19 pandemic started in Wuhan, China, much research work has been focusing on the clinical aspect of SARS-CoV-2. Researchers have been leveraging on various Artificial Intelligence techniques as an alternative to medical approach in understanding the virus. Limited studies have, however, reported on COVID-19 transmission pattern analysis, and using geography features for prediction of potential outbreak sites. Predicting the next most probable outbreak site is crucial, particularly for optimizing the planning of medical personnel and supply resources. To tackle the challenge, this work proposed distance-based similarity measures to predict the next most probable outbreak site together with its magnitude, when would the outbreak likely to happen and the duration of the outbreak. The work began with preprocessing of 1365 patient records from six districts in the most populated state named Selangor in Malaysia. The dataset was then aggregated with population density information and human elicited geography features that might promote the transmission of COVID-19. Empirical findings indicated that the proposed unified decision-making approach outperformed individual distance metric in predicting the total cases, next outbreak location, and the time interval between start dates of two similar sites. Such findings provided valuable insights for policymakers to perform Active Case Detection.     

Towards an Artificial Intelligence Framework for Data-Driven Prediction of Coronavirus Clinical Severity

The virus SARS-CoV2, which causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has become a pandemic and has spread to every inhabited continent. Given the increasing caseload, there is an urgent need to augment clinical skills in order to identify from among the many mild cases the few that will progress to critical illness. We present a first step towards building an artificial intelligence (AI) framework, with predictive analytics (PA) capabilities applied to real patient data, to provide rapid clinical decision-making support. COVID-19 has presented a pressing need as a) clinicians are still developing clinical acumen to this novel disease and b) resource limitations in a surging pandemic require difficult resource allocation decisions. The objectives of this research are: (1) to algorithmically identify the combinations of clinical characteristics of COVID-19 that predict outcomes, and (2) to develop a tool with AI capabilities that will predict patients at risk for more severe illness on initial presentation. The predictive models learn from historical data to help predict who will develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a severe outcome in COVID-19. Our results, based on data from two hospitals in Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China, identified features on initial presentation with COVID-19 that were most predictive of later development of ARDS. A mildly elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (a liver enzyme), the presence of myalgias (body aches), and an elevated hemoglobin (red blood cells), in this order, are the clinical features, on presentation, that are the most predictive. The predictive models that learned from historical data of patients from these two hospitals achieved 70% to 80% accuracy in predicting severe cases.     

Deep Learning Approach for Analysis and Characterization of COVID-19

Early diagnosis of a pandemic disease like COVID-19 can help deal with a dire situation and help radiologists and other experts manage human resources more effectively. In a recent pandemic, laboratories perform diagnostics manually, which requires a lot of time and expertise of the laboratorial technicians to yield accurate results. Moreover, the cost of kits is high, and well-equipped labs are needed to perform this test. Therefore, other means of diagnosis is highly desirable. Radiography is one of the existing methods that finds its use in the diagnosis of COVID-19. The radiography observes change in Computed Tomography (CT) chest images of patients, developing a deep learning-based method to extract graphical features which are used for automated diagnosis of the disease ahead of laboratory-based testing. The proposed work suggests an Artificial Intelligence (AI) based technique for rapid diagnosis of COVID-19 from given volumetric chest CT images of patients by extracting its visual features and then using these features in the deep learning module. The proposed convolutional neural network aims to classify the infectious and non-infectious SARS-COV2 subjects. The proposed network utilizes 746 chests scanned CT images of 349 images belonging to COVID-19 positive cases, while 397 belong to negative cases of COVID-19. Our experiment resulted in an accuracy of 98.4%, sensitivity of 98.5%, specificity of 98.3%, precision of 97.1%, and F1-score of 97.8%. The additional parameters of classification error, mean absolute error (MAE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and Matthew’s correlation coefficient (MCC) are used to evaluate our proposed work. The obtained result shows the outstanding performance for the classification of infectious and non-infectious for COVID-19 cases.