Relating risk to project performance in Indonesian building contracts

A construction project is unique, specific and dynamic, and therefore projects have different levels and combinations of risks, different responses are taken to minimise those risks and different consequences affect project performance. The primary aim of this study was to analyse the impacts of perceived project risk on project performance. A path model was developed and path analysis was used to determine the relationships between risk and performance. The main survey was predominantly based on a series of interviews with project managers. A total of 22 building projects under construction were surveyed; however, only 13 projects used an ‘S’ curve to monitor their project performance. The study focused on these 13 projects and found that perceived project risk had a direct negative effect on monthly progress achievement, while monthly progress had a direct positive impact on schedule performance. Although project risk had no direct effect on schedule performance, this was influenced indirectly with monthly progress as the mediator between them. These findings indicate that the higher the project risk in a project, the greater the negative impact on monthly progress, and consequently the worse the schedule performance will be.     

Professor Rodney Howes, 1943–2005

Strategic IT implementation decisions for major construction projects in Hong Kong are subject to various forces or factors identified in previous research—such as external forces, technological factors and organizational factors. The aim of this research was to examine the relationship (if any) between these families of forces and evaluate their impact, individually and collectively. A complex combination of several families of forces/factors that affect decision making was found to be ‘temporal’ with respect to project teams on major projects in Hong Kong. The research was underpinned by a broad questionnaire survey to establish ‘current practice’ before in‐depth analysis of the forces by means of a case study followed by interviews with industry leaders to confirm the results. It was found that respondents (n = 33) ordered cost, security and confidentiality as the most influential factors affecting IT implementation. A difference was found in the perceptions of ‘hired‐in’ project‐based staff in joint ventures and ‘permanent staff’ of single companies, the former evaluating IT performance more highly but evaluating the strategic use of, and user satisfaction with, IT significantly lower. The major constraint on IT implementation was found to be lack of budget, not cost per se. It is concluded that the temporal factors that apply to implementing innovative IT technology in project teams are relevant to different team members at different stages in the project life cycle and these factors are conditioned by a set of business conditions applying to project‐specific coalition organizations that are different from those that apply to single‐entity organizations.     

Evaluating impact of construction risks in the Arabian Gulf Region from perspective of multinational architecture,engineering and construction firms

Although multinational firms use risk mitigation measures when venturing into new international markets, there has been little research into identifying and evaluating the impact of these risks on project and multinational firm performance in the Arabian Gulf Region (AGR). Risks encountered in the AGR are identified through a data collection process from multinational architecture, engineering and construction (AEC) companies with work experience in the AGR. The impact of these risks on four performance metrics (i.e. project cost, schedule and performance; and company performance) is then evaluated using relative importance index (RII), significance score (SS) and principal component analysis (PCA) for validation. The results indicate that multinational firms are potentially exposed to a total of 27 external risks and 47 internal risks. Of the 27 external risks, war threat, political instability, price inflation, resources availability and quality, authorities and regulations requirements, and inclement climate have the most significant impact on the four performance metrics. Of the 47 internal risks, defective late design documents, constructive changes and insufficient scope definition have the most significant impact on the four performance metrics. These findings can guide multinational AEC firms in the AGR in establishing effective risk mitigation plans.     

Multi-objective optimization of impinging jet ventilation systems: Taguchi-based CFD method

This paper presents a Taguchi method-based approach that can optimize the operating performance of impinging jet ventilation (IJV) systems with limited computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation results. The Taguchi optimization calculation finds the best operating design for the weighted overall objective function as a presenter of the multi-objective function problem. The method is used to optimize the operating characteristics of an IJV system considering the factors of supply air temperature, level of the return air vent and percentage of the air exhausted through the ceiling to achieve an overall best performance of thermal comfort, indoor air quality (IAQ) and system energy performance as the objective functions. The study indicates the contribution percentage for each factor in each objective function. The level of the return air vent, the supply air temperature, and the percentage of air exhausted through the ceiling have a contribution of 35.8%, 28.5%, and 35.8% in the objective functions, respectively. Based on the results, the best performance of the IJV system happens when the inlet air temperature is 18 °C, the height of the return air vent is 2 m above the floor, and the percentage of air exhausted through the ceiling is 22.5%.     

Dynamic modeling of the quantitative risk allocation in construction projects

Allocation of construction risks between owners and their contractors has a significant impact on the total construction costs. This research presents an integrated fuzzy-system dynamics approach for quantitative risk allocation. All the factors affecting the risk allocation process are modeled using system dynamics approach. Fuzzy logic is integrated into system dynamics modeling structure to account for the existing uncertainties. The values of different factors that have an uncertain nature are determined by fuzzy numbers. The application of Zadeh's extension principle and interval arithmetic is proposed for the system dynamics to enable the system outcomes to be presented considering uncertainties in the input variables. Using the proposed integrated fuzzy-SD model, the project cost is simulated at different percentages of risk allocation. The optimum percentage of risk allocation is determined as a point in which the project cost is minimized. The performance of the proposed method is assessed by employing the method in a tunneling project.     

Using fuzzy multiple criteria decision making approach to enhance risk assessment for metropolitan construction projects

The undertaking of construction projects in metropolitan areas is a risky, competitive, and dynamic proposition requiring a reliable risk assessment model for adequate planning. This study employs a fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (FMCDM) approach to systematically assess risk for a metropolitan construction project. Consistent fuzzy preference relations (CFPR) are used to measure and investigate the relative impact on project performance of twenty identified risk factors included in four risk dimensions. The fuzzy multiple attributes direct rating (FMADR) approach is employed to analyze the occurrence probability of multiple risk factors. Furthermore, the level of risk for the overall project caused by individual risk factor is evaluated with the synthesized analysis of the relative impacts and probability of occurrence. The implementation of FMCDM makes the proposed risk assessment approach more reliable and practical than the traditional statistical approach. The proposed approach can be employed to effectively evaluate the overall project risk, and can be benefited to efficiently identify significant risks of a metropolitan construction project.     

施工图审查制度运行绩效关键影响因素研究

识别施工图审查制度运行绩效关键影响因素,是提升制度运行绩效、避免盲目制度改革而产生工程质量安全监管风险的重要基础工作.以江苏模式施工图审查制度为研究对象,聚焦地区实践,通过文献分析与访谈,归纳识别出18个制度运行绩效影响因子,基于376份有效问卷的调查数据,利用因子分析法提取出5个关键影响因素,在对关键影响因素分析后给...     

国内EPC 工程项目联营体总承包商风险因素研究

随着EPC 总承包模式在国内的逐渐推广运用,特别是以联营体作为总承包商的EPC 模式工程项目存在着很多的不确定性,有必要对国内EPC 工程总承包模式风险因素进行研究。在查阅大量有关文献的基础工作上,系统地分析了影响国内EPC 联营体总承包商的风险因素。通过阅读相关文献资料与专家访谈相结合,分析得到影响国内EPC 模式联营体总承包商的四大主要风险因素:项目实施环境方面风险因素、技术实施方面风险因素、EPC 合同实施方面风险因素和EPC 总承包商总体管控能力方面风险因素,通过EPC 模式工程案例提出了风险控制措施,以求对实际工作有一定的指导意义。     

中国对外承包项目国际化程度对项目绩效影响研究

随着经济全球化的发展,中国对外承包项目的国际化能否真正提高项目绩效逐渐成为学界和业界关注的焦点。基于国际生产折衷理论,以承包商的视角,对98 个项目样本数据进行分析,结论表明中国对外承包项目的国际化程度对项目绩效的影响是正向的,且项目无形资产与内部结构的国际化对项目绩效的影响最大,其次分别是项目所在国环境认知度、项目有形资产国际化,最小的是项目国际化管理能力。同时,研究指出中国对外承包项目目前正处于中度国际化阶段,中国对外承包商若想进一步提高项目绩效,应当相应提高项目的国际化程度,尤其是注重项目无形资产的国际竞争力。     

管理信息系统应用对项目绩效的影响研究——以深圳地铁14号线为例

为了实现高效的信息化管理,识别影响管理信息系统应用的因素及其对项目绩效的影响机理至关重要.基于D&M模型,采用SEM模型从信息质量、系统质量、环境质量和服务质量4个维度进行实证分析.结果表明,系统质量和环境质量对项目绩效的影响较为显著,属于一级因素,服务质量和信息质量属于二级因素.此外,在影响路径上,用户使用意愿发挥的...     

Estimate at Completion for construction projects using Evolutionary Support Vector Machine Inference Model

Construction projects are influenced by a range of factors that impact upon final project cost. Estimate at Completion (EAC) is an important approach used to estimate final project cost, which takes into consideration probable project performance and risks. EAC helps project managers identify potential but still unknown problems and adopt response strategies. This study constructed an evolutionary EAC model to generate project cost estimates that proved significantly more reliable than estimates achievable using currently prevailing formulae. The developed learning model fused two artificial intelligence approaches, namely the fast messy genetic algorithm (fmGA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), to create an Evolutionary Support Vector Machine Inference Model (ESIM). The ESIM was then applied to estimate final project costs for historical cases. Finally, using the EAC estimate, project cost influence indices, and project cost diagrams, the discrepancy between estimate and practical values was examined to determine potential problems in order to help project managers better control project costs. The learning results were validated in real applications that showed good performance for training models. Providing project managers reliable EAC trend estimates is helpful for their effective control of project costs and taking appropriate peremptory measures to handle potential problems.     

Key relationship-based determinants of project performance in China

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship-based factors that affect performance of general building projects in China. Thirteen performance metrics that may be used to measure the success level of construction projects are defined and categorized into four groups namely cost, schedule, quality and relationship performance. Fourteen risks inherent in relationships and 16 tools expected to facilitate relationship building that may affect project success are identified. Data of different projects were collected in China via a self-administered postal survey. Multiple linear regression models are developed to help explain the variance in different performance metrics. It has been found that ten risks and nine tools have either positive or negative influence on project performance to some different extents and in different project development process stages. Detailed explanations are made, especially to those variables bearing unexpected signs. It is recommended that firms in the Chinese construction industry manage the relationship-based factors that are significant in the MLR models so as to achieve project success.     

碰撞射流通风的特性及节能分析

碰撞射流通风方式在20世纪90年代末起源于瑞典,对于我国仍是一种新型的通风方式。本文对碰撞射流通风的特性进行了分析,并将其与混合通风对比突出了它的节能,说明碰撞射流通风是一种相当具有发展前景的通风方式,为碰撞射流通风在我国的应用和推广提供理论基础。     

基于干系人知识共享的多组织项目风险的仿真

多组织项目的风险管理涉及众多干系人的参与,从知识管理角度分析,项目风险管理过程是不同项目干系人在信任的基础上进行相互协作、共享风险知识以实现风险控制的持续过程。基于社会网络理论,利用智能体仿真技术研究在不同信任条件和活动自由度下,干系人风险知识的交互对项目风险绩效的影响。研究结果表明,合理的信任条件以及适当的干系人活动自由度能降低项目整个生命周期内的风险影响,提高项目风险绩效,并提出了相应的项目风险管理建议。     

Escalation of commitment in troubled IT projects: Influence of project risk factors and self-efficacy on the perception of risk and the commitment to a failing project

Past studies have indicated that project managers may be less likely to continue failing IT projects if they are able to perceive project risks accurately. Using the scenario of a failing IT project, a computer simulation-based experiment investigated the influence of individual self-efficacy and project risk factors on the perception of risk. Participants played the role of a project manager and managed a simulated IT project. The results suggest that project managers are likely to underestimate the risks of a project with endogenous risk factors as compared to a project with exogenous risk factors. Results of this study point to a ‘self-efficacy bias’ where project managers with higher self-efficacy may underestimate the risks of a troubled IT project as compared to project managers with lower self-efficacy. Further, risk perception mediated the influence of self-efficacy on the commitment to a failing IT project.     

Understanding the impact of risks on performance in internal and outsourced information technology projects: The role of strategic importance

Successfully managing the risks of information technology projects continues to be a central problem for organizations regardless of whether the project is outsourced or not. While a plethora of studies has examined the effects of risks on performance, majority fail to distinguish the sourcing characteristics of the projects investigated. Furthermore, little is known about the joint effects of strategic importance and the risk on system performance across internal and outsourced projects. Based on data collected from 77 internal projects and 51 outsourced projects, we find that social subsystem and project management risks are negatively associated with system performance in both internal and outsourced projects. However, technical subsystem risk negatively affects performance only in internal projects. While social subsystem risk exerts greater influence on system performance in outsourced projects than in internal projects, the technical subsystem risk has greater effect on performance in internal than that in outsourced projects. Moreover, the effect of project management risk is not different in both types of projects. In addition, strategic importance moderates the relationship between risks and performance. The negative impact of risks on performance is greater in projects that are more strategic. Strategies are proposed to reduce the complexity and potential conflicts inherent to strategic projects because these characteristics may amplify a risk's impact.     

Maximizing strategic value from megaprojects: The influence of information-feed on decision-making by the project manager

Large projects are notorious for erosion of value during execution. Decisions made by project managers have a significant impact on the strategic value of the asset delivered, and those decisions depend on the information feed on which they are based. This study uses theories of organizational behavior, decision-making and program management to investigate the impact of information feed used by project managers on the strategic value delivered by mega projects in the oil and gas industry. A global survey of 69 managers of mega-projects was conducted. Results showed that information feed to project managers significantly influences the strategic value created by megaprojects. Also some moderating effects of contextual factors on this relationship were found. The contextual factors that influenced project manager decision-making relate to what they perceived to be Senior Management drivers for their projects. However the hypothesized moderating influence of project manager experience on decision-making was not found—an interesting observation. It was found that the extent to which project managers feel in control should influence the scope and quality of information-feed that should be sought. Four risk areas were observed as significant to long-term value creation from megaprojects: government relations; host community relations; contract management and procurement; and the influence of multi-location execution.     

A model to control environmental performance of project execution process based on greenhouse gas emissions using earned value management

In response to recent climate change, which is believed to be attributed to the release of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, many countries are placing CO2 abatement programs such as carbon tax and cap-and-trade. Projects do have a significant share in GHGs and therefore their environmental performance, like their schedule and cost performance, should be monitored and controlled. Although many large projects would pass an environmental assessment in the project evaluation phase, the issue of environmental performance monitoring during the project execution phase has not been addressed in project management methodologies. The objective of this paper is to develop a model to estimate project GHG emissions, and to measure project GHG performance using the developed metrics, which can be used at any point in time over the life of a project. A comprehensive study is conducted to collect information on GHG emission factors of various project activity data (such as material use, energy and fuel consumption, transportation, etc.), and a user form interface is developed to calculate the total GHG of an activity. Also, a breakdown structure is proposed which supports managing all the project GHG accounts. The monitoring and control model is formulated based on the logic used in earned value management (EVM) methodology. The proposed model is then implemented to a work package of a real construction project. The results present the project initial GHG plan and show that the model is able to calculate project GHG variance by the reporting date and predict project final GHG based on a project GHG performance index. The method presented in this paper is general and can be applied to any type of projects in an organization that aims to reduce its carbon footprint. The same structure can be applied to monitor and control any other environmental impact associated with project execution process.     

A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic

The construction industry is plagued by risk and often has suffered poor performance as a result. There are a number of risk management techniques available to help alleviate this, but usually these are based on operational research techniques developed in the 1960s, and for the most part have failed to meet the needs of project managers. In this paper, a hierarchical risk breakdown structure representation is used to develop a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. A common language for describing risks is presented which includes terms for quantifying likelihoods and impacts so as to achieve consistent quantification. The relationships between risk factors, risks and their consequences are represented on cause and effect diagrams. These diagrams and the concepts of fuzzy association and fuzzy composition are applied to identify relationships between risk sources and the consequences for project performance measures. A methodology for evaluating the risk exposure, considering the consequences in terms of time, cost, quality, and safety performance measures of a project based on fuzzy estimates of the risk components is presented.