Identifying crash contributory factors at urban roundabouts and using association rules to explore their relationships to different crash types

The use of roundabouts improves intersection safety by eliminating or altering conflict types, reducing crash severity, and causing drivers to reduce speeds. However, roundabout performances can degrade if precautions are not taken during either the design or the operation phase. Therefore, additional information on the safety of the roundabouts is extremely helpful for planners and designers in identifying existing deficiencies and in refining the design criteria currently being used. The aim of the paper was to investigate the crash contributory factors in 15 urban roundabouts located in Italy and to study the interdependences between these factors.The crash data refer to the period 2003–2008. The identification of the crash contributory factors was based on site inspections and rigorous analyses performed by a team of specialists with a relevant road safety engineering background. Each roundabout was inspected once every year from 2004 to 2009, both in daytime and in nighttime. Overall, 62 different contributory factors and 2156 total contributory factors were identified. In 51 crashes, a single contributory factor was found, whereas in the other 223 crashes, a combination of contributory factors was identified. Given the large amount of data, the interdependences between the contributory factors and between the contributory factors and the different crash types were explored by an association discovery. Association discovery is the identification of sets of items (i.e., crash contributory factors and crash types in our study) that occur together in a given event (i.e., a crash in our study). The rules were filtered by support, confidence, and lift. As a result, 112 association rules were discovered.Overall, numerous contributory factors related to the road and environment deficiencies but not related to the road user or to the vehicle were identified. The most important factors related to geometric design were the radius of deflection and the deviation angle. In existing roundabouts, the improvement of these factors might be quite expensive, but the crucial role of a moderate radius of deflection and a large deviation angle in the design of new roundabouts was stressed. Many of the contributory factors were related to markings and signs, and these factors could be easily removed with low-cost safety measures. Furthermore, because of the association between the markings, signs, and geometric design contributory factors, the study results suggest that the improvement in markings and signs might also have a significant effect in the sites where geometric design deficiencies were identified as contributory factors.     

Prioritizing Highway Safety Manual’s crash prediction variables using boosted regression trees

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) recommends using the empirical Bayes (EB) method with locally derived calibration factors to predict an agency’s safety performance. However, the data needs for deriving these local calibration factors are significant, requiring very detailed roadway characteristics information. Many of the data variables identified in the HSM are currently unavailable in the states’ databases. Moreover, the process of collecting and maintaining all the HSM data variables is cost-prohibitive. Prioritization of the variables based on their impact on crash predictions would, therefore, help to identify influential variables for which data could be collected and maintained for continued updates. This study aims to determine the impact of each independent variable identified in the HSM on crash predictions. A relatively recent data mining approach called boosted regression trees (BRT) is used to investigate the association between the variables and crash predictions. The BRT method can effectively handle different types of predictor variables, identify very complex and non-linear association among variables, and compute variable importance. Five years of crash data from 2008 to 2012 on two urban and suburban facility types, two-lane undivided arterials and four-lane divided arterials, were analyzed for estimating the influence of variables on crash predictions. Variables were found to exhibit non-linear and sometimes complex relationship to predicted crash counts. In addition, only a few variables were found to explain most of the variation in the crash data.     

Analysis of crash severities using nested logit model—Accounting for the underreporting of crashes

Recent studies in the area of highway safety have demonstrated the usefulness of logit models for modeling crash injury severities. Use of these models enables one to identify and quantify the effects of factors that contribute to certain levels of severity. Most often, these models are estimated assuming equal probability of the occurrence for each injury severity level in the data. However, traffic crash data are generally characterized by underreporting, especially when crashes result in lower injury severity. Thus, the sample used for an analysis is often outcome-based, which can result in a biased estimation of model parameters. This is more of a problem when a nested logit model specification is used instead of a multinomial logit model and when true shares of the outcomes-injury severity levels in the population are not known (which is almost always the case). This study demonstrates an application of a recently proposed weighted conditional maximum likelihood estimator in tackling the problem of underreporting of crashes when using a nested logit model for crash severity analyses.     

线性模拟量数据采集系统准确度的一种评价方法

采用一种新的准确度表述方法来评价数据采集系统的准确度；同时讨论了该方法的数据采集系统各种误差与现有指标的兼容性问题。     

Evaluating the efficiency of local municipalities in providing traffic safety using the Data Envelopment Analysis

The purpose of this study was to estimate the relative efficiency of 197 local municipalities in traffic safety in Israel during 2004–2009, using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). DEA efficiency is based on multiple inputs and multiple outputs, when their weights are unknown. We used here inputs reflecting the resources allocated to the local municipalities (such as funding), outputs include measures that reflect reductions in accidents (such as accidents per population), and intermediate variables known as safety performance indicators (SPI): measures that are theoretically linked to crash and injury reductions (such as use of safety belts). Some of the outputs are undesirable. Using DEA, the local municipalities were rank-scaled from the most efficient to the least efficient and required improvements for inefficient municipalities were calculated. We found that most of the improvements were required in two intermediate variables related to citations for traffic violations. Several DEA versions were used including a two-stage model where in the first stage the intermediate variables are the outputs, and in the second stage they are the inputs. Further analyses utilizing multiple regressions were performed to verify the effect of various demographic parameters on the efficiency of the municipalities. The demographic parameters tested for each local municipality were related to the size, age, and socio-economic level of the population. The most significant environmental variable affecting the efficiency of local municipalities in preventing road accidents is the population size of the local authority; the size has a negative effect on the efficiency. As far as we could determine, this is the first time that the DEA is used to measure the efficiency of local municipalities in improving traffic safety.     

用于磁光盘误码率测试的高速数据采集系统

介绍一种用于磁光盘误码检测的新型高速数据采集－暂存系统。该系统的硬件设计针对磁光盘记录数据的特点，采用独立的“采集－暂存”结构，软件由ＭＣＳ－５１单片机汇编语言设计而成，文中还介绍了此系统与ＭＣＳ－５１单片机传输数据的方法。