Mortality in psychiatric hospital patients: a cohort analysis of prognostic factors

BACKGROUND: This work followed a group of patients living in a psychiatric hospital in Central Italy in 1978 at the time of enforcement of the Italian reform law (No. 180) for closing down mental hospitals. The study had the following aims: a) to compare in terms of mortality patients discharged into the community with patients who did not experience deinstitutionalization; b) to determine the survival of the cohort of patients and to analyse prognostic risk factors for death; c) to analyse differences in mortality rates between psychiatric patients and the general population. METHODS: The study was designed as an historical follow-up investigation. Univariate (product limit) and multivariate (proportional hazards model) methods were used to estimate prognostic variables and related death risks. Mortality was assessed using standardized mortality ratios (SMR) on the entire cohort as well as after stratification according to age, sex, cause of death and discharge status, assuming the Abruzzo Region's population as standard. RESULTS: Length of hospitalization and discharge from hospital are prognostic variables for death risk, with relative risks respectively of 4.22 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.41-7.40) for a length of hospitalization of 10-25 years, and 8.13 (95% CI: 4.73-13.88) for non-discharge. The global SMR of the cohort was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.42-3.07). Non-discharged patients showed higher SMR than discharged. Excess mortality was found both in males and females for circulatory, respiratory and undefined diseases. A significantly lower mortality for cancer was observed in male patients. A strong excess mortality was observed in younger patients (20-29 years: SMRmales = 43.57; SMRfemales = 97.52). CONCLUSIONS: Longer periods of hospitalization and non-discharge from hospital are the main risk factors for death in psychiatric patients, who globally experience higher death rates than the general population for a wide spectrum of causes of death, whatever their diagnosis or gender. These findings strongly suggest positive actions in order to overcome the effects of institutionalization.     

Mortality associated with oral contraceptive use: 25 year follow up of cohort of 46 000 women from Royal College of General Practitioners' oral contraception study

OBJECTIVE: To describe the long term effects of the use of oral contraceptives on mortality. DESIGN: Cohort study with 25 year follow up. Details of oral contraceptive use and of morbidity and mortality were reported six monthly by general practitioners. 75% of the original cohort was "flagged" on the NHS central registers. SETTING: 1400 general practices throughout Britain. SUBJECTS: 46 000 women, half of whom were using oral contraceptives at recruitment in 1968-9. Median age at end of follow up was 49 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Relative risks of death adjusted for age, parity, social class, and smoking. RESULTS: Over the 25 year follow up 1599 deaths were reported. Over the entire period of follow up the risk of death from all causes was similar in ever users and never users of oral contraceptives (relative risk=1.0, 95% confidence interval 0.9 to 1.1; P=0.7) and the risk of death for most specific causes did not differ significantly in the two groups. However, among current and recent (within 10 years) users the relative risk of death from ovarian cancer was 0.2 (0.1 to 0.8; P=0.01), from cervical cancer 2.5 (1.1 to 6.1; P=0.04), and from cerebrovascular disease 1.9 (1.2 to 3.1, P=0.009). By contrast, for women who had stopped use >/= 10 years previously there were no significant excesses or deficits either overall or for any specific cause of death. CONCLUSION: Oral contraceptives seem to have their main effect on mortality while they are being used and in the 10 years after use ceases. Ten or more years after use ceases mortality in past users is similar to that in never users.     

An evaluation of digital subtraction radiography for assessment of changes in position of the mandibular condyle

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the mortality experience of workers from the styrene-butadiene rubber industry. Concerns about a possible association of 1,3-butadiene and styrene with lymphohaematopoietic, gastrointestinal, and lung cancers prompted the investigation. METHODS: A retrospective follow up study was conducted of 15,649 men employed for at least one year at any of eight North American styrene-butadiene rubber plants. Analyses used standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) to compare styrene-butadiene rubber workers' cause specific mortalities (1943-91) with those of the United States and Ontario general populations. RESULTS: On average, there were 25 years of follow up per subject. The standardised mortality ratio (SMR) was 87 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 85 to 90) for all causes of death combined and was 93 (95% CI 87 to 99) for all cancers. There was an excess of leukaemia (SMR 131, 95% CI 97 to 174), restricted to hourly workers (SMR 143, 95% CI 104 to 191). For causes of death other than leukaemia, SMRs were close to or below the null value of 100. Results by work area (process group) were unremarkable for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, multiple myeloma, and stomach cancer. Maintenance workers had a slight increase in deaths from lung cancer, and certain subgroups of workers had more than expected deaths from cancer of the large intestine and the larynx. CONCLUSION: This study found an excess of leukaemia that is likely to be due to exposure to butadiene or to butadiene plus other chemicals. Deaths from non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, multiple myeloma, and stomach cancer did not seem to be related to occupational exposure. The excess deaths from lung cancer among maintenance workers may be due in part to confounding by smoking, which was not controlled for, and in part to an unidentified occupational exposure other than butadiene or styrene. Increases in cancer of the large intestine and larynx were based on small numbers, did not seem to be due to exposure to butadiene or styrene, and may be chance observations.     

Risk of death from malignant neoplasms among paper mill workers

A cohort study was designed to evaluate the risk of death from malignant neoplasms among pulp and paper workers. This paper presents the evaluation of death risk among workers engaged only in the production of paper, paperboard and paper products. The cohort study covered 1,322 males and 1,914 females employed for, at least, one year in a big pulp and paper mill during the period 1968-90. The study of exposure to harmful factors revealed that concentrations of paper and paperboard dusts in this mill exceeded hygienic standards. The analysis of death risk by causes and gender of those under study was based on standardized mortality rate (SMR) calculated using the method of person-year observation. The general population of Poland was used as reference. The results do not confirm excess mortality from lung, stomach and hematopoietic cancers in paper mill workers reported by other authors. However, an elevated risk of bladder cancer in males (SMR = 491, two deaths) and brain cancer in females (SMR = 353, two deaths) was observed. Both SMR values were not statistically significant. Because of small number of deaths, risk according to exposure and latency was not evaluated.     

Bilaterally cleft lip, limb defects, and haematological manifestations: Roberts syndrome versus TAR syndrome

OBJECTIVES: To examine the causes of death among 1130 former workers of a plant in Tyler, Texas dedicated to the manufacture of asbestos pipe insulation materials. This cohort is important and unusual because it used amosite as the only asbestiform mineral in the production process. High level exposure of such a specific type was documented through industrial hygiene surveys in the plant. METHODS: Deaths were ascertained through various sources including data tapes from the Texas Department of Health and the national death index files. As many death certificates as possible were secured (304/315) and cause of death assigned. After select exclusions, 222 death certificates were used in the analysis. Causes of death were compared with age, race, and sex specific mortalities for the United States population with a commercial software package (OCMAP Version 2.0). RESULTS: There was an excess of deaths from respiratory cancer including the bronchus, trachea, and lung (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) 277 with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 193 to 385). Four pleural mesotheliomas and two peritoneal mesotheliomas were identified. The analysis also showed an increasing risk of respiratory malignancy with increased duration of exposure including a significant excess of total deaths from respiratory cancer with less than six months of work at the plant (SMR 268 with 95% CI 172 to 399). CONCLUSIONS: The importance of the cohort lies with the pure amosite exposure which took place in the plant and the extended period of latency which has followed. The death certificate analysis indicates the pathogenicity of amosite, the predominant commercial amphibole used in the United States. These data confirm a link between amosite asbestos and respiratory malignancy as well as mesothelioma.     

First analysis of mortality and occupational radiation exposure based on the National Dose Registry of Canada

A cohort mortality study of occupational radiation exposure was conducted using the records of the National Dose Registry of Canada. The cohort consisted of 206,620 individuals monitored for radiation exposure between 1951 and 1983 with mortality follow-up through December 31, 1987. A total of 5,426 deaths were identified by computerized record linkage with the Canadian Mortality Data Base. The standardized mortality ratio for all causes of death was 0.61 for both sexes combined. However, trends of increasing mortality with cumulative exposure to whole body radiation were noted for all causes of death in both males and females. In males, cancer mortality appeared to increase with cumulative exposure to radiation, without any clear relation to specific cancers. Unexplained trends of increasing mortality due to cardiovascular diseases (males and females) and accidents (males only) were also noted. The excess relative risk for both sexes, estimated to be 3.0% per 10 mSv (90% confidence interval 1.1-4.8) for all cancers combined, is within the range of risk estimates previously reported in the literature.     

Follow-up study among model and pattern makers in a German automobile company. Results of a second follow-up

An historical follow-up study of 528 model makers in a German automobile company found an unusual pattern of mortality among these workers that included an increased risk of total cancer and tumors of the stomach, genitourinary organs, and the brain (Becker et al, 1992). Because of small numbers of cases and problems with the validity of causes of death, we carried out a second follow-up using data from the official mortality statistics and extending the observation period by five years. The new results did not confirm the previous observations of an increased risk of total cancer, cancer of the genitourinary organs, and tumors of the brain but confirmed indications of an increased risk of stomach cancer and suggested for the first time that there may be an increased risk of cancer of the intestine. Though the small numbers of cases did not allow statistical confirmation of these findings, they are consistent with the results of other studies recently conducted in the United States and published in this journal.     

Socioeconomic status within social class and mortality: a prospective study in middle-aged British men

OBJECTIVE: It has been suggested that mortality differences between groups in society may be greater than are indicated by social class based on occupation. We have examined the relationship between social class and mortality using home and car ownership as additional indices of socioeconomic status within social class. DESIGN: A prospective study of a cohort of men representative of the social class distribution of middle-aged men in Great Britain. SETTING: One general practice in each of 24 towns in England, Wales and Scotland. SUBJECTS: Five years after the initial screening of 7735 men aged 40-59 years, 7262 men (94% of the original cohort) provided information on housing tenure and car ownership by completing a postal questionnaire. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Deaths from all causes, cardiovascular, cancer and other non-cardiovascular causes during an average follow-up of 9.8 years (range 8.5-11.0 years) after the postal questionnaire. RESULTS: During the follow-up period there were 946 deaths from all causes among the 7262 men. The lowest mortality rates for all causes, cardiovascular, cancer and other non-cardiovascular causes were seen in non-manual social classes I and II. Manual social classes III and IV+V showed a significant 40% increase in risk of death compared to social classes I+II, even after adjustment for a wide range of risk factors (relative risk [RR] = 1.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-1.7 and RR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.7 respectively). Within all social class groups, those owning both home and car showed lower rates than those who owned neither, even after adjustment for a wide range of risk factors and employment status. Compared with social classes I+II owning both home and car, all those not owning home and/or car, in each social group, showed a significant approximately twofold increase in risk of death. Adjusted RR for non-manual I+II = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.5-2.9), non-manual III RR = 2.0 (95% CI: 1.3-2.9), manual III RR = 1.8 (95% CI: 1.4-2.4) and manual IV+V RR = 1.8 (95% CI: 1.3-2.5). Similar relationships were seen in all major geographical regions of Great Britain. CONCLUSION: Mortality differences within society are greater than indicated by social class based on occupation alone. Irrespective of social class, men with greater material assets have lower rates of mortality from all causes than men less well endowed, independent of a wide range of lifestyle and biological factors. These findings suggest that mortality differences within our society are closely related to relative wealth.     

Long-term inhalable particles and other air pollutants related to mortality in nonsmokers

Long-term ambient concentrations of inhalable particles less than 10 microm in diameter (PM10) (1973- 1992) and other air pollutants-total suspended sulfates, sulfur dioxide, ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide-were related to 1977-1992 mortality in a cohort of 6,338 nonsmoking California Seventh-day Adventists. In both sexes, PM10 showed a strong association with mortality for any mention of nonmalignant respiratory disease on the death certificate, adjusting for a wide range of potentially confounding factors, including occupational and indoor sources of air pollutants. The adjusted relative risk (RR) for this cause of death as associated with an interquartile range (IQR) difference of 43 d/yr when PM10 exceeded 100 microg/m3 was 1.18 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02, 1.36). In males, PM10 showed a strong association with lung cancer deaths-RR for an IQR was 2.38 (95% CI: 1.42, 3.97). Ozone showed an even stronger association with lung cancer mortality for males with an RR of 4.19 (95% CI: 1.81, 9.69) for the IQR difference of 551 h/yr when O3 exceeded 100 parts per billion. Sulfur dioxide showed strong associations with lung cancer mortality for both sexes. Other pollutants showed weak or no association with mortality.     

Risk of gastric cancer in pneumoconiotic coal miners and the effect of respiratory impairment

OBJECTIVES: This study was carried out to investigate the mortality patterns in a group of 3790 coal miners. The study population had abnormal chest x ray films at a routine medical examination that was performed in the 1950s. METHODS: The total group of 3790 coal miners were followed up for mortality up to 1 January 1992. Causes of death, determined and coded at time of death, were traced with help from the Central Bureau of Statistics. RESULTS: Total mortality in this group of coal miners with abnormal chest x ray films was significantly higher than expected (SMR 127.1, 95% CI 122.5-131.6), mainly a reflection of the increase in mortality from non-malignant respiratory disease (SMR 411.0, 95% CI 382.3-441.3). Mortality from gastric cancer was also significantly increased (SMR 147.5, 95% CI 122.3-176.3). This risk of mortality from gastric cancer was confined to workers with no pneumoconiosis or only a mild form. Despite the strong relation to duration of employment and pneumoconiosis the group of workers with more severe manifestations of pneumoconiosis did not experience an excess in mortality from gastric cancer. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the earlier reported risk of gastric cancer in coal miners. Also it confirms the hypothesis that this risk of gastric cancer is limited to workers with a mild degree of pneumoconiosis or none. In workers with severe forms of pneumoconiosis the pulmonary clearance system is impaired in such a way that the inhaled coal dust does not reach the digestive tract.     

Impact of human immunodeficiency virus infection on mortality among young men and women in Spain

BACKGROUND: This paper describes the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) mortality among young adults in Spain with specific reference to other causes of death. METHODS: Based on death registration data for the period 1980-1993, HIV/AIDS was compared against all other causes of death by gender, using specific rates in the 25-44 age group and standardized rates for potential years of life lost (PYLL). RESULTS: In 1993, HIV/AIDS was the leading cause of death among men aged 25-44 years (21.8% of all deaths) and the second leading cause of death among women (14.9%), exceeded only by cancer. Since 1982, the trend in the overall standardized mortality rate for men in the 25-44 age group has been reversed, showing a progressive increase. Similarly, since 1984 there has been a halt in the decline in female mortality. For both sexes, maintenance of these trends in mortality was largely ascribable to the effect of HIV/AIDS deaths which registered a marked rise, a rise far sharper than that witnessed for variations in all other causes studied. In 1993, the adjusted PYLL rate for HIV/AIDS for ages 1-70 rose to 615 per 100,000 population in men and 156 in women. These values accounted for 9.2% and 5.8% of PYLL for all causes, thereby ranking HIV/AIDS behind motor vehicle accidents as the second leading cause of premature death in men, and behind motor vehicle accidents and breast cancer as the third leading cause in women. For both sexes, the rise in the PYLL rate for HIV/AIDS from 1992 to 1993 proved far greater than that for all other causes of death. CONCLUSION: In Spain, HIV/AIDS has become the leading cause of death among young adults and is counteracting improvements in mortality due to other causes. It should therefore be regarded as a priority public health problem.     

An association between air pollution and mortality in six U.S. cities

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have reported associations between particulate air pollution and daily mortality rates. Population-based, cross-sectional studies of metropolitan areas in the United States have also found associations between particulate air pollution and annual mortality rates, but these studies have been criticized, in part because they did not directly control for cigarette smoking and other health risks. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we estimated the effects of air pollution on mortality, while controlling for individual risk factors. Survival analysis, including Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling, was conducted with data from a 14-to-16-year mortality follow-up of 8111 adults in six U.S. cities. RESULTS: Mortality rates were most strongly associated with cigarette smoking. After adjusting for smoking and other risk factors, we observed statistically significant and robust associations between air pollution and mortality. The adjusted mortality-rate ratio for the most polluted of the cities as compared with the least polluted was 1.26 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.08 to 1.47). Air pollution was positively associated with death from lung cancer and cardiopulmonary disease but not with death from other causes considered together. Mortality was most strongly associated with air pollution with fine particulates, including sulfates. CONCLUSIONS: Although the effects of other, unmeasured risk factors cannot be excluded with certainty, these results suggest that fine-particulate air pollution, or a more complex pollution mixture associated with fine particulate matter, contributes to excess mortality in certain U.S. cities.     

Body mass index and mortality in a general population sample of men and women. The Buffalo Health Study

The objective of this research was to investigate the long-term relation between body mass index (BMI) and mortality from all causes and from specific causes in the general population. A 29-year follow-up study was conducted in a random sample of white men (n = 611) and women (n = 697) aged 20-96 years who were residents of Buffalo, New York, in 1960. At baseline, height and weight were determined by self-report. BMI was calculated as weight (kg)/height (m2). During the follow-up period, 295 (48.3 percent) men and 281 (40.3 percent) women died. With the Cox proportional hazards model and adjustment for age, education, and cigarette smoking, a significant linear association was found between BMI and all-cause mortality in men less than age 65 years at baseline (relative risk (RR) = 1.06, 95 percent confidence interval 1.02-1.09), but not in women (RR = 1.02, 95 percent confidence interval 0.99-1.05). In men age 65 years and older, the relation was quadratic in form (p = 0.02), with the lowest risks appearing in the BMI range of 23-27. BMI was most strongly related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and coronary heart disease mortality in women and younger men. No such associations were observed in older men. BMI was not related to an increased risk of death from non-CVD or cancer in either sex. These findings illustrate the importance of BMI as a risk factor for CVD and coronary heart disease mortality in certain gender-age groups and indicate that the majority of the impact of BMI on overall mortality is due to the strong relation between relative weight and these specific causes of death.     

Health survey of former workers in a Norwegian coke plant: Part 2. Cancer incidence and cause specific mortality

OBJECTIVES: A Norwegian coke plant that operated from 1964 to 1988 was investigated to ascertain whether the male workers in this plant had increased morbidities of cancer or increased mortality from specific causes, particularly associated with specific exposures at the coke plant. METHODS: Personal data on all the employees of the plant were obtained from the plant's archives. With additional data from the Norwegian Bureau of Statistics we identified 888 male former workers at the plant. Causes of death were obtained from the Norwegian Bureau of Statistics, and cancer diagnoses from the Norwegian Cancer Registry. The results were compared with national averages adjusted for age. Specific exposures were estimated with records of actual measurements done at the plant and interviews with former workers at the plant. RESULTS: A significant excess of stomach cancer (standardised incidence ratio (SIR) 2.22, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.01 to 4.21) was found. Mortality from ischaemic heart disease and sudden death was positively associated with work in areas which entailed peak exposures to CO. When considering work in such areas the past 3 years before death, the association was significant (p = 0.01). The last result is based on only two deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the short follow up time and the small size of the cohort the results should be interpreted with a certain caution. The positive results would justify a re-examination of the cohort at a later date.     

Serum creatinine concentration and risk of cardiovascular disease: a possible marker for increased risk of stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Elevated serum creatinine has been associated with increased mortality in hypertensive persons, the elderly, and patients with myocardial infarction or stroke in whom cardiovascular disease is the major cause of death. We have examined the relationship between serum creatinine concentration and the risk of major ischemic heart disease and stroke events and all-cause mortality in a general population of middle-aged men. METHODS: We present a prospective study of middle-aged men (aged 40 to 59 years) drawn from 24 British towns who have been followed up for an average of 14.75 years. Data on serum creatinine were available for 7690 men in whom there were 287 major stroke events, 967 major ischemic heart disease events, and 1259 deaths from all causes during follow-up. RESULTS: The median serum creatinine concentration was 98 micromol/L (95% range, 76 to 129 micromol/L). Stroke risk was significantly increased at levels above 116 micromol/L (90th percentile) even after adjustment for a wide range of cardiovascular risk factors (relative risk [RR], 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.1; > 116 micromol/L versus the rest). Risk of a major ischemic heart disease event was significantly increased at or above 130 micromol/L (97.5 percentile), but this was attenuated after adjustment (RR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.8 to 1.7; > or = 130 micromol/L versus the rest). There was a weak but significant positive association between diastolic blood pressure and creatinine concentration. However, elevated creatinine concentration (> or = 116 micromol/L) was associated with a significant increase in stroke in both normotensive and hypertensive men. All-cause mortality and overall cardiovascular mortality were significantly increased only above the 97.5 percentile, and no significant association was seen with cancer or other noncardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS: A high serum creatinine concentration within the normal range is a marker for increased risk of cerebrovascular disease in both normotensive and hypertensive subjects. These findings support the evidence indicating that subtle impairment of renal function is a factor for increased risk of stroke and suggest mechanisms in the pathogenesis of stroke that warrant further investigation.     

Occupational low back pain: history and physical examination

The mortality experience of 7,119 workers who were employed at a Beaumont, Texas, refinery for at least 1 year between 1945 and 1987 was investigated. Mortality analyses based on standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) showed overall mortality was significantly lower than expected compared with the U.S. general population (SMR = 82, 95% CI = 79-86). Total cancer mortality was also lower than expected (SMR = 92, 95% CI = 84-100). Significant mortality deficits from several malignant and nonmalignant diseases were reported. A significant mortality increase in the broad category of lymphatic and hematopoietic cancers was found (SMR = 133, 95% CI = 103-170). This increase was attributed to a nonsignificant elevation in leukemia of all cell types combined (SMR = 139, 95% CI = 92-201) and a borderline significant increase in other lymphatic tissue cancer (SMR = 158, 95% CI = 101-235). The elevation in leukemia was confined to workers hired before 1950. Furthermore, the leukemia excess was shown to have peaked during the 1960s, with mortality no longer elevated post-1980. Analyses of cell type-specific leukemias showed a similar temporal pattern for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) which was not significantly elevated (SMR = 136, 95% CI = 59-268). Mortality from other leukemia cell types was similar to or lower than expected. Mortality from non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) (SMR = 140, 95% CI = 88-211) and multiple myeloma (MM) (SMR = 121, 95% CI = 55-230) were increased, but neither was statistically significant nor likely to be related to refinery employment. No death from asbestosis was reported, and mortality from mesothelioma and pulmonary fibrosis was lower than expected. Lung cancer mortality for the overall cohort was similar to expected. For the overall cohort, analyses by duration of employment and time since first employment showed no evidence of any trends for increasing cause-specific mortality. Separate analyses of male workers employed in operator jobs showed mortality patterns that were more favorable than those of the total cohort. Maintenance craftworkers showed statistically significant elevations in mortality for prostate cancer (SMR = 145, 95% CI = 107-194), leukemia (SMR = 179, 95% CI = 111-273), and other lymphatic tissue cancer (SMR = 233, 95% CI = 138-368). Detailed analyses indicated that, among maintenance craftworkers, mortality was elevated for AML, NHL, and MM, but none was significant. Furthermore, no upward trend by duration of maintenance jobs was observed. A small increase of lung cancer was observed among maintenance craftworkers (SMR = 120, 95% CI = 99-145), which was borderline significant. No relationship between lung cancer and duration of maintenance employment was found. In contrast, a deficit of pulmonary fibrosis was reported among maintenance craftworkers (SMR = 62, 95% CI = 17-159). These findings are discussed in conjunction with results from other refinery studies, and the limitations of the study are discussed.     

Mortality after the treatment of hyperthyroidism with radioactive iodine

BACKGROUND: Hyperthyroidism affects many organ systems, but the effects are usually considered reversible. The long-term effects of hyperthyroidism on mortality are not known. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study of mortality in a cohort of 7209 subjects with hyperthyroidism who were treated with radioactive iodine in Birmingham, United Kingdom, between 1950 and 1989. The vital status of the subjects was determined on March 1, 1996, and causes of death were ascertained for those who had died. The data on the causes of death were compared with data on age-specific mortality in England and Wales. The standardized mortality ratio was used as a measure of relative risk, and the effect of covariates on mortality was assessed by regression analysis. RESULTS: During 105,028 person-years of follow-up, 3611 subjects died; the expected number of deaths was 3186 (standardized mortality ratio, 1.1; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 1.2; P<0.001). The risk was increased for deaths due to thyroid disease (106 excess deaths; standardized mortality ratio, 24.8; 95 percent confidence interval, 20.4 to 29.9), cardiovascular disease (240 excess deaths; standardized mortality ratio, 1.2; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.2 to 1.3), and cerebrovascular disease (159 excess deaths; standardized mortality ratio, 1.4; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.2 to 1.5), as well as fracture of the femur (26 excess deaths; standardized mortality ratio, 2.9; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.0 to 3.9). The excess mortality was most evident in the first year after radioiodine therapy and declined thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with hyperthyroidism treated with radioiodine, mortality from all causes and mortality due to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease and fracture are increased.     

Association between depressive symptoms and mortality in older women. Study of Osteoporotic Fractures Research Group

BACKGROUND: Major depression is associated with increased mortality, but it is not known whether patients who report depressive symptoms have greater mortality. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of 7518 white women 67 years of age or older who were recruited from population-based listings in Baltimore, Md, Minneapolis, Minn, Portland, Ore, and the Monongahela Valley, Pa. Participants completed the Geriatric Depression Scale (short form) and were considered depressed if they reported 6 or more of 15 possible symptoms of depression. Women were followed up for an average of 6 years. If a participant died, we obtained a copy of the official death certificate and hospital records, if available, and used International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes to classify death attributable to cardiovascular, cancer, or noncancer, noncardiovascular cause. RESULTS: Mortality during 7-year follow-up varied from 7% in women with no depressive symptoms to 17% in those with 3 to 5 symptoms to 24% in those with 6 or more symptoms of depression (P<.001). Of 473 women (6.3%) with 6 or more depressive symptoms at baseline, 24% died (111 deaths in 2610 woman-years of follow-up) compared with 11% of women who reported 5 or fewer symptoms of depression (760 deaths in 41 460 woman-years of follow-up) (P<.001). Women with 6 or more depressive symptoms had a 2-fold increased risk of death (age-adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75-2.61; P<.001) compared with those who had 5 or fewer depressive symptoms. This association remained strong after adjusting for potential confounding variables, including history of myocardial infarction, stroke, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, smoking, perceived health, and cognitive function (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.14-1.88; P=.003). Depressive symptoms were associated with an increased adjusted risk of death from cardiovascular diseases (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2-2.5; P= .003), and non-cancer, noncardiovascular diseases (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2-2.7; P = .01), but were not associated with deaths from cancer (HR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.6-1.7; P=.93). CONCLUSIONS: Depressive symptoms are a significant risk factor for cardiovascular and noncancer, noncardiovascular mortality but not cancer mortality in older women. Whether depressive symptoms are a marker for, or a cause of, life-threatening conditions remains to be determined.     

Power-law relationship of heart rate variability as a predictor of mortality in the elderly

BACKGROUND: The prognostic role of heart rate (HR) variability analyzed from 24-hour ECG recordings in the general population is not well known. We studied whether analysis of 24-hour HR behavior is able to predict mortality in a random population of elderly subjects. METHODS AND RESULTS: A random sample of 347 subjects of > or =65 years of age (mean, 73+/-6 years) underwent a comprehensive clinical evaluation, laboratory tests, and 24-hour ECG recordings and were subsequently followed up for 10 years. Various spectral and nonspectral measures of HR variability were analyzed from the baseline 24-hour ECG recordings. Risk factors for all-cause, cardiac, cerebrovascular, cancer, and other causes of death were assessed. By the end of 10-year follow-up, 184 subjects (53%) had died and 163 (47%) were still alive. Seventy-four subjects (21%) had died of cardiac disease, 37 of cancer (11%), 25 of cerebrovascular disease (7%), and 48 (14%) of various other causes. Among all analyzed variables, a steep slope of the power-law regression line of HR variability (< -1.50) was the best univariate predictor of all-cause mortality (odds ratio, 7.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.7 to 17.0; P<.0001). After adjusting for age and sex and including all univariate predictors of mortality in the proportional hazards analysis, ie, measures of HR variability, history of heart disease, functional class, smoking, medication, and blood cholesterol and glucose concentrations, all-cause mortality was predicted only by the slope of HR variability (adjusted relative risk, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.42 to 2.13; P<.0001) and a history of congestive heart failure (adjusted relative risk, 1.70; P=.0002). The slope of HR variability predicted both cardiac (adjusted relative risk, 2.05; P=.0002) and cerebrovascular death (adjusted relative risk, 2.84; P=.0001) but not cancer or other causes of death. CONCLUSIONS: Power-law relationship of 24-hour HR variability is a more powerful predictor of death than the traditional risk markers in elderly subjects. Altered long-term behavior of HR implies an increased risk of vascular causes of death rather than being a marker of any disease or frailty leading to death.     

Premature separation of centromere and aneuploidy: an indicator of high risk in unaffected individuals from familial breast cancer families?

OBJECTIVES: Injury is the leading cause of death in the male working population of Brazil. An important fraction of these deaths are work related. Very few cohort studies of steel workers, and none from developing countries, have reported on mortality from injuries. This paper analyses mortality from work and non-work related injuries among Brazilian steel workers. METHODS: Deaths during employment from 1 January 1977 to 30 November 1992 were analysed in a cohort of 21,816 male steel workers. Mortality rates specific for age and calendar year among the workers were compared with those of the male population of the state where the plant is located. Work related injuries were analysed by comparing the mortality rates for different subgroups of the cohort. RESULTS: The number of deaths (391) was less than half that expected based on death rates of the general population. Over 60% (242) of deaths were due to injuries. Mortality from most causes was substantially below that in the general population, but that from unintentional injury, was 50% above that of the general population. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were highest for the youngest and the oldest employees and for labourers and clerical workers. Mortality from motor vehicle injury was twice that expected from population rates (SMR = 209, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 176-244). There was a 67% fall in the age adjusted mortality from occupational injuries in the study period. CONCLUSION: The healthy worker effect in this cohort was greater than that commonly found in studies of occupational groups in developed countries, probably because of a greater socioeconomic gap between employed and unemployed populations in Brazil, and unequal distribution of health care resources. Mortality was especially high for motor vehicle injuries. The fall in mortality from occupational injuries during the study period was probably due to improvement in safety standards, increased automation, and better medical care. There is a need to investigate risk factors for unintentional injuries among steel workers, especially those due to motor vehicle injuries. Prevention of occupational and nonoccupational injuries should be a main priority in Brazil.