新西兰奶业发展概况及环境保护政策

新西兰是世界奶业大国,牛奶产量居世界第8位,产品出口150多个国家,是世界上最大的乳制品出口国,奶业已成为新西兰的重要经济支柱。新西兰奶业发展以天然牧场放牧为基础,充分利用天然草地农业系统,通过机械化生产、专业化管理和规模化经营实现了畜牧业生产现代化,以成本低、质量好、效率高为特点赢得了较强的国际竞争力。新西兰也是一个完备的法制国家,针对奶业规模化发展制定了一系列的法律和政策,为奶业持续健康发展提供了保证。新西兰的成功做法和宝贵经验,对我国奶业的发展有重要的借鉴意义。     

基于政策比较的中国和欧盟乳业研究

概述了当前欧盟和中国乳业主要实施的政策:包括欧盟的贸易政策、市场支持政策和农户支持政策,以及中国的贸易政策、牧草业发展政策、规模化奶牛养殖促进政策以及乳品加工业政策;进一步地从政策层面对欧盟和中国乳业进行比较分析,发现二者乳业政策的不同侧重点以及可供中国借鉴的乳业政策;最后,提出进一步扩大国际市场、逐步建立和完善生鲜乳...     

Identifying cost-minimizing strategies for guaranteeing target dairy income over feed cost via use of the Livestock Gross Margin dairy insurance program

Milk and feed price volatility are the major source of dairy farm risk. Since August 2008 a new federally reinsured insurance program has been available to many US dairy farmers to help minimize the negative effects of adverse price movements. This insurance program is referred to as Livestock Gross Margin Insurance for Dairy Cattle. Given the flexibility in contract design, the dairy farmer has to make 3 critical decisions when purchasing this insurance: 1) the percentage of monthly milk production to be covered, 3) declared feed equivalents used to produce this milk, and 3) the level of gross margin not covered by insurance (i.e., deductible). The objective of this analysis was to provide an optimal strategy of how a dairy farmer could incorporate this insurance program to help manage the variability in net farm income. In this analysis we assumed that a risk-neutral dairy farmer wants to design an insurance contract such that a target guaranteed income over feed cost is obtained at least cost. We undertook this analysis for a representative Wisconsin dairy farm (herd size: 120 cows) producing 8,873 kg (19,545 lb) of milk/cow per year. Wisconsin statistical data indicates that dairy farms of similar size must require an income over feed cost of at least $110/Mg ($5/cwt) of milk to be profitable during the coverage period. Therefore, using data for the July 2009 insurance contract to insure $110/Mg of milk, the least cost contract was found to have a premium of $1.22/Mg ($0.055/cwt) of milk produced insuring approximately 52% of the production with variable monthly production covered during the period of September 2009 to June 2010. This premium represented 1.10% of the desired IOFC. We compared the above optimal strategy with an alternative nonoptimal strategy, defined as a contract insuring the same proportion of milk as the optimal (52%) but with a constant amount insured across all contract months. The premium was found to be almost twice the level obtained under the cost-minimizing solution representing 1.9% of the insured amount. Our model identifies the lowest cost insurance contract for a desired target guaranteed income over feed cost.     

珠宝企业对黄金价格变动的灵敏性分析

如今金、工分离的黄金饰品销售方式使得黄金饰品的价格越来越透明。珠宝企业对黄金价格变动的灵敏度的高低不仅关系到消费者的权益,更关系到珠宝企业的利润。通过数学建模和运用MATLAB软件,分析了珠宝企业对黄金价格变动的灵敏程度。结果显示,灵敏性从高到低依次为:全国性知名珠宝企业(包括港资)、一般区域性珠宝企业和当地私营珠宝企业;灵敏性的差异源于不同珠宝企业受黄金市场、地方政策及经营模式影响程度的不同。研究发现,所调查的珠宝企业对金价均是追涨止跌,以获得最大利润。     

An analysis of at-home demand for ice cream in the United States

Ice cream has been manufactured commercially in the United States since the middle of the 19th century. Ice cream and frozen dessert products comprise an important and relatively stable component of the United States dairy industry. As with many other dairy products, ice cream is differentiated in several dimensions. A censored translog demand system model was employed to analyze purchases of 3 ice cream product categories. The objective of this study was to determine the effect that changes in retail prices and consumer income have on at-home ice cream consumption. The analysis was based on Nielsen 2005 home scan retail data and used marital status, age, race, education, female employment status, and location in the estimations of aggregate demand elasticities. Results revealed that price and consumer income were the main determinants of demand for ice cream products. Calculated own-price elasticities indicated relatively elastic responses by consumers for all categories except for compensated bulk ice cream. All expenditure elasticities were inelastic except for bulk ice cream, and most of the ice cream categories were substitutes. Ongoing efforts to examine consumer demand for these products will assist milk producers, dairy processors and manufacturers, and dairy marketers as they face changing consumer responses to food and diet issues.     

Phenotypic associations between traits other than production and longevity in New Zealand dairy cattle

A proportional hazards model was used to investigate the phenotypic effect of traits other than production (TOP) on true and functional longevity across purebred and crossbred Holstein-Friesian and Jersey dairy cattle in registered and commercial herds in New Zealand. The hazard function was described as the product of a baseline hazard function and the time-independent effects of age at first calving, heterosis, proportion of breed, period of last calving relative to herdmates, and TOP; a time-dependent effect of herd-year was also included. The influence of TOP on functional longevity was assessed by adjusting true longevity for the time-independent effects of production values as well as the time-dependent effects of deviation of milk, fat, and protein yield within contemporary group. All analyses were stratified by breed, and separate analyses were carried out for registered or commercial herds. All TOP were significantly related to true and functional longevity. Obvious differences existed in the relative influence of individual TOP on longevity in registered or commercial herds. Of the individual TOP describing the physical characteristics of the cow, the udder-related TOP exhibited the largest influence on functional longevity. Farmer opinion explained the largest proportion of variation in true and functional longevity among cows. In commercial herds, the risk of culling in cows with very low farmer opinion was 1.5 to 2.0 times that in cows with average or high farmer opinion.     

2009年以来中国蔬菜价格上涨分析

2009年以来中国蔬菜价格上涨呈现出领涨、涨幅大、结构分化的新特点。货币的溢出效应、生产成本的提高以及流通环节的层层加码是此轮蔬菜价格上涨的主要原因;此外,自然灾害和游资炒作也在一定程度上放大了价格上涨的趋势。从长期来看,中国蔬菜供求关系变化所产生蔬菜价格上涨的推力和拉力将始终存在,而蔬菜资本化趋势则导致蔬菜价格频繁波动或成常态。为构建中国蔬菜生产和价格稳定的长效机制,建议政府完善蔬菜生产风险管理体系、创新蔬菜市场风险调控手段以及强化蔬菜预警监测体系建设。     

The price of cigarettes in the European Union

BACKGROUND: A major factor influencing tobacco use is its price. Fiscal policies on tobacco are a key ingredient of any comprehensive control strategy, as they can be used to raise prices. The European Union (EU) developed directives to ensure some harmonisation of the fiscal pressure on tobacco across its member states. OBJECTIVES: To provide a simple comparison of tobacco prices in the EU, adjusting for the purchasing power of each currency. DESIGN: For price comparisons, a 20 units pack of Marlboro was the reference product, and data refer to April 2000. Purchasing power parities (PPP) for each member state currency have been compiled. These are currency conversion rates, which convert to a common currency and equalise the purchasing power of different currencies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Nominal prices of a Marlboro pack for each member state, and a price index, estimated taking as reference the EU mean. Adjusted prices and an adjusted price index have been estimated using PPP. RESULTS: Nominal prices show wide variation, with the cheapest pack in Portugal (59) and the most expensive in the UK (196); the range of variation is three-fold. However, PPP adjusted prices reveal a different distribution. In three countries adjusted prices are outliers, but all other countries make two clusters, one around the average EU index of 100, the other around a lower value of 85. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that fiscal harmonisation policies in the EU do not have an even effect at reducing availability by its impact in price.     

Contextualized understandings of dairy farmers' perspectives on antimicrobial use and regulation in Alberta,Canada

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has been largely attributed to antimicrobial use (AMU). To achieve judicious AMU, much research and many policies focus on knowledge translation and behavioral change mechanisms. To address knowledge gaps in contextual drivers of decisions made by dairy farmers concerning AMU, we conducted ethnographic fieldwork to investigate one community's understanding of AMU, AMR, and associated regulations in the dairy industry in Alberta, Canada. This included participation in on-farm activities and observations of relevant interactions on dairy farms in central Alberta for 4 mo. Interviews were conducted with 25 dairy farmers. The interviews were analyzed using thematic analysis and yielded several key findings. Many dairy farmers in this sample: (1) value their autonomy and hope to maintain agency regarding AMU; (2) have shared cultural and immigrant identities which may inform their perspectives of future AMU regulation as it relates to their farming autonomy; (3) feel that certain AMU policies implemented in other contexts would be impractical in Alberta and would constrain their freedom to make what they perceive to be the best animal welfare decisions; (4) believe that their knowledge and experience are undervalued by consumers and policy makers; (5) are concerned that the public does not have a complex understanding of dairy farming and, consequently, worry that AMU policy will be based on misguided consumer concerns; and (6) are variably skeptical of a link between AMU in dairy cattle and AMR in humans due to their strict adherence to milk safety protocols that is driven by their genuine care for the integrity of the product. A better understanding of the sociocultural and political-economic infrastructure that supports such perceptions is warranted and should inform efforts to improve AMU stewardship and future policies regarding AMU.     

非对称信息下时间敏感型供应链的研发合作分析

以总装制造商和零部件供应商组成的制造供应链为研究对象,分析信息对称性对供应链研发决策的影响.在供应商的研发能力为对称信息和非对称信息的条件下,用价格补贴策略分别构建了不同信息环境下的研发决策模型,并进行了优化求解.通过比较不同信息条件下的决策结果,揭示了信息因素对供应链研发合作的影响：在非对称信息条件下,为了激励供应商,制造商不得不对供应商的研发能力的不可观测性付出额外的成本,导致价格补贴量提高,制造商利润下降,而供应商由于拥有私有信息使得利润增加.     

Efficiency of converting nutrient dry matter to milk in Holstein herds

Production of milk from feed dry matter intakes (DMI), called dairy or feed efficiency, is not commonly measured in dairy herds as is feed conversion to weight gain in swine, beef, and poultry; however, it has relevance to conversion of purchased input to salable product and proportion of dietary nutrients excreted. The purpose of this study was to identify some readily measured factors that affect dairy efficiency. Data were collected from 13 dairy herds visited 34 times over a 14-mo period. Variables measured included cool or warm season (high ambient temperature <21 degrees C or >21 degrees C, respectively), days in milk, DMI, milk yield, milk fat percent, herd size, dietary concentrations (DM basis) and kilograms of crude protein (CP), acid detergent fiber (ADF), neutral detergent fiber (NDF), and forage. Season, days in milk, CP % and forage % of diet DM, and kilograms of dietary CP affected dairy efficiency. When evaluated using a model containing the significant variables, dairy efficiency was lower in the warm season (1.31) than in the cool season (1.40). In terms of simple correlations, dairy efficiency was negatively correlated with days in milk (r = -0.529), DMI (r = -0.316), forage % (r = -0.430), NDF % (r = -0.308), and kilograms of forage (r = -0.516), NDF (r = -0.434), and ADF (r = -0.313), in the diet, respectively. Dairy efficiency was positively correlated with milk yield (r = 0.707). The same relative patterns of significance and correlation were noted for dairy efficiency calculated with 3.5% fat-corrected milk yield. Diets fed by the herds fell within such a small range of variation (mean +/- standard deviation) for CP % (16.3 +/- 0.696), NDF % (33.2 +/- 2.68), and forage % (46.9 +/- 5.56) that these would not be expected to be useful to evaluate the effect of excessive underfeeding or overfeeding of these dietary components. The negative relationships of dairy efficiency with increasing dietary fiber and forage may reflect the effect of decreased diet digestibility. The results of this study suggest that managing herd breeding programs to reduce average days in milk and providing a cooler environment for the cows may help to maximize dairy efficiency. The mechanisms for the effects of the dietary variables on dairy efficiency need to be understood and evaluated over a broader range of diets and conditions before more firm conclusions regarding their impact can be drawn.     

Comparison of Coxiella burnetii shedding in milk of dairy bovine, caprine, and ovine herds

The shedding of Coxiella burnetii in bovine, caprine, and ovine milk was measured using PCR, in 3 herds for each species, the bulk tank milk samples of which were positive at the time of their selection. Milk samples of 95 cows, 120 goats, and 90 ewes were sampled over 16 wk, as was the bulk tank milk. The shedding of C. burnetii in vaginal mucus and feces was checked at the beginning of the experiment and 2 mo later. The clinical signs in the selected herds as well as the duration and the shedding routes differed among the 3 species. The cows were asymptomatic and shed C. burnetii almost exclusively in milk. In one of the caprine herds, abortions due to C. burnetii were reported. The goats excreted the bacteria mainly in milk. In contrast, the ewes, which came from flocks with abortions due to Q fever (C. burnetii infection), shed the bacteria mostly in feces and in vaginal mucus. This could explain why human outbreaks of Q fever are more often related to ovine flocks than to bovine herds. These excretions did not seem more frequent when the samples were taken close to parturition. The samples were taken from 0 to 421 d after parturition in bovine herds and from 5 to 119 d and 11 to 238 d after parturition in the caprine and ovine herds, respectively. The shedding in milk was sometimes intermittent, and several animals shed the bacteria but were negative by ELISA: 80% of the ewes were seronegative, underscoring the lack of sensitivity of the ELISA tests available for veterinary diagnosis. The detection of antibodies in milk seems more sensitive than it is in serum.     

Dairy cow handling facilities and the perception of Beef Quality Assurance on Colorado dairies

A survey was conducted on Colorado dairies to assess attitudes and practices regarding Dairy Beef Quality Assurance (DBQA). The objectives were to (1) assess the need for a new handling facility that would allow all injections to be administered via DBQA standards; (2) establish if Colorado dairy producers are concerned with DBQA; and (3) assess differences in responses between dairy owners and herdsmen. Of the 95 dairies contacted, 20 (21%) agreed to participate, with a median herd size of 1,178. When asked to rank the following 7 traits—efficiency, animal safety, human safety, ease of animal handling, ease of operation, inject per Beef Quality Assurance (BQA) procedures, and cost—in order of priority when designing a new handling facility, human and animal safety were ranked highest in priority (first or second) by the majority of participants, with ease of animal handling and efficiency ranked next. Interestingly, the administration of injections per BQA standards was ranked sixth or seventh by most participants. Respondents estimated the average annual income from the sale of cull cows to be 4.6% of all dairy income, with 50% receiving at least one carcass discount or condemnation in the past 12 mo. Although almost all of the participating dairy farmers stated that the preferred injection site for medications was the neck region, a significant number admitted to using alternate injection sites. In contrast, no difference was found between responses regarding the preferred and actual location for intravenous injections. Although most participating producers are aware of BQA injection guidelines, they perceive efficiency as more important, which could result in injections being administered in locations not promoted by BQA. Dairy owners and herdsmen disagreed in whether or not workers had been injured in the animal handling area in the last 12 mo. Handling facilities that allow for an efficient and safe way to administer drugs according to BQA guidelines and educational opportunities that highlight the effect of improved DBQA on profitability could prove useful. Dairy producers play a key role in ensuring that dairy beef is safe and high quality, and just as they are committed to producing safe and nutritious milk for their customers, they should be committed to producing the best quality beef.     

巴美肉羊净肉质量与净肉率预测模型建立

在羊肉生产加工的屠宰线上,为了较快地预测胴体净肉质量和净肉率,并按照不同产肉性能对肉羊胴体进行等级划分,以建立科学合理的优质优价收购体系,本实验选取30头4～8月龄巴美肉羊,对其进行屠宰、冷却、分割,并分别测定其宰前羊体活质量（X1）、热胴体质量（X2）、眼肌面积（X3）、背肉厚度（X4）等指标。将数据采用SPSS 16.0软件进行相关分析和线性回归,最终得到以X1、X2和X3三因子共同预测净肉质量（Y1）的线性方程Y1=-1.113＋1.088X2-0.141X1-0.004X3（R2=0.996）和预测净肉率（Y2）的线性方程Y2=31.187＋2.362X2-1.090X1＋0.068X3（R2=0.920）,结果表明这两个方程均可在实际生产中用于巴美肉羊净肉质量和净肉率的预测。     

Analysis of nitrogen utilization and excretion in growing dairy cattle

Literature data on utilization of dietary N were analyzed by using meta-analytic procedures for growing milk-fed dairy calves and weaned dairy heifers. The objective was to statistically assess N utilization and excretion in growing dairy cattle when dietary N was altered in otherwise balanced rations at various stages of growth. Studies meeting the selection criteria included data from 16 published papers encompassing 94 distinct observations made on 217 animals. Of these, 6 studied calves were fed milk or milk protein-based milk replacer [milk-fed; 30 to 81 kg of body weight (BW)] with 37 different dietary treatments, and 10 experiments studied heifers receiving diets based on forage, concentrates, or a combination of forage and concentrates (weaned; 56 to 472 kg of BW) with 57 different dietary treatments. Mixed model and fixed effect regression analyses were used to evaluate responses to additional dietary N. True digestibility of dietary N was 100.4% for milk-fed calves and 96.4% for weaned heifers, with corresponding basal fecal N excretion values of 3.05 and 6.51 g of N/kg of dry matter intake. Urinary N (g of N/kg of BW^0.75) was consistently greater for milk-fed calves, but the response to increasing N intake was parallel to the response for weaned heifers. Whether using a mixed model approach or a fixed effect approach to account for metabolizable energy intake, BW, and dry matter intake, milk-fed calves retained more N per kilogram of BW^0.75 than weaned heifers. However, marginal efficiency of N utilization responded as a continuous function of BW, as opposed to a bimodal response associated with diet type. Gross N efficiency (GNE) responded quadratically to N intake and was greater for milk-fed calves than for weaned heifers. Linear and quadratic coefficients of this function did not differ between diet types, indicating that the response in gross N efficiency to additional N intake was not different between diet groups; rather, the absolute level obtainable differed. Dietary CP concentrations of 18.9% for milk-fed calves and 14.2% for weaned heifers were found to maximize GNE; 22.5% MJ of crude protein/MJ of ME was found to maximize GNE for both groups. Equations are discussed relative to the requirements to replace basal N losses and efficiency of N utilization.     

Assessing economic and demographic factors that influence United States dairy demand

Low-fat dairy products are key components of a healthy diet for all Americans. As the USDA increases its focus on nutrition and healthy eating, it is important to understand the underlying demands for dairy products, both the healthy and the less healthy ones. The consumption of fluid milk products has decreased over the last decade, whereas milk used for manufactured dairy products such as cheese, ice cream, yogurt, and butter, and for use as an ingredient in other food products, has risen. The objective of this study is to determine the effects of changes in demographic variables, retail prices, and total dairy expenditure on at-home consumption of dairy products, using purchase data from Nielsen 2007 Homescan (ACNielsen, New York, NY) data. To derive the demand elasticities for 16 products, a censored Almost Ideal Demand System model is used. Results reveal that demographic variables do have effects on the purchase of the 16 products, and own-price elasticities are 1 or greater for all 16 products for both uncompensated and compensated elasticities except 4: ice cream, refrigerated yogurt, processed cheese, and margarine. A substitution relationship exists among all fluid milk categories, natural and processed cheese, low-fat ice cream, and refrigerated yogurt, butter, and margarine.     

New Zealand's tobacco control programme 1985-1998

OBJECTIVE: To review the impact of New Zealand's tobacco control programme from 1985 to 1998 on smoking prevalence and tobacco consumption, and to estimate the scope for further reduction. DESIGN: Country case study; interventions, with outcomes ranked internationally across time. SETTING: New Zealand 1985-98; for 1985-95, 23 OECD countries. INTERVENTIONS: Between 1985 and 1998, New Zealand eliminated tobacco advertising, halved the affordability of cigarettes, and reduced smoke exposure in work time by 39%. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Reduction in adult smoking prevalence and in tobacco products consumption per adult. RESULTS: Changes in prevalence 1985-98: in adults (aged 15+ years), -17% (from 30% to 25%) but short of the 20% target for 2000; in youth (aged 15-24 years), -20% (from 35% to 28%); and in Maori adults (aged 15+ years), -17% (from 56% in 1981 to 46% in 1996). Changes in consumption 1985-98: tobacco products per adult aged 15+ years, -45% (2493 to 1377 cigarette equivalents); cigarettes smoked per smoker, -34% (22. 7 to 15.0 per day). Between 1985 and 1995 New Zealand reduced tobacco products consumption per adult more rapidly than any other OECD country, and reduced youth prevalence more rapidly than most. The acceleration of the decline in cigarette attributable mortality rates in men and in women age 35-69 years averted an additional 1400 deaths between 1985 and 1996. Between 1981 and 1996 smoking prevalence among blue collar workers decreased only marginally, and in 14-15 year olds, rose by one third between 1992 and 1997. CONCLUSION: In 13 years, New Zealand's tobacco control programme has been successful in almost halving tobacco products consumption, particularly by lowering consumption per smoker. With strong political support for quit campaigns, increased taxation, and the elimination of displays of tobacco products on sale, the consumption could theoretically be halved again in as little as 3-6 years.     

西方古典家具史论（十二）英国的新古典主义风格家具（三）——18世纪后半期至19世纪前半期

英国的新古典主义家具,在前期是以亚当、赫普尔怀特、谢拉顿的个人风格为代表的;后期则以摄政式为代表。