On the role of solar photovoltaics in global energy transition scenarios

The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability in order to comply with the COP21 agreement. Solar photovoltaic (PV) offers excellent characteristics to play a major role in this energy transition. The key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV in the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors. A progressive group of energy transition scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed. For the very first time, a full hourly modelling for an entire year is performed for the world, subdivided in 145 sub‐regions, which is required to reflect the intermittent character of the future energy system. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1–9.1 TWp for the electricity sector (as of the year 2015) and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid‐term. The long‐term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and, because of the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid‐term to long‐term for the global energy supply. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with photovoltaic electricity from crystalline silicon modules under various energy supply options

The direct and indirect emissions associated with photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation are evaluated, focussing on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to crystalline silicon (c‐Si) solar module production. Electricity supply technologies used in the entire PV production chain are found to be most influential. Emissions associated with only the electricity‐input in the production of PV vary as much as 0–200 g CO₂‐eq per kWh electricity generated by PV. This wide range results because of specific supply technologies one may assume to provide the electricity‐input in PV production, i.e., whether coal‐, gas‐, wind‐, or PV‐power facilities in the “background” provide the electricity supply for powering the entire PV production chain. The heat input in the entire PV production chain, for which mainly the combustion of natural gas is assumed, adds another ∼16 CO₂‐eq/kWh. The GHG emissions directly attributed to c‐Si PV technology alone constitute only ∼1–2 g CO₂‐eq/kWh. The difference in scale indicates the relevance of reporting “indirect” emissions due to energy input in PV production separately from “direct” emissions particular to PV technology. In this article, we also demonstrate the utilization of “direct” and “indirect” shares of emissions for the calculation of GHG emissions in simplified world electricity‐ and PV‐market development scenarios. Results underscore very large GHG mitigation realized by solar PV toward increasingly significant PV market shares. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Life cycle assessment of crystalline photovoltaics in the Swiss ecoinvent database

This paper describes the life cycle assessment (LCA) for photovoltaic (PV) power plants in the new ecoinvent database. Twelve different, grid‐connected photovoltaic systems were studied for the situation in Switzerland in the year 2000. They are manufactured as panels or laminates, from monocrystalline or polycrystalline silicon, installed on facades, slanted or flat roofs, and have 3 kW_p capacity. The process data include quartz reduction, silicon purification, wafer, panel and laminate production, mounting structure, 30 years operation and dismantling. In contrast to existing LCA studies, country‐specific electricity mixes have been considered in the life cycle inventory (LCI) in order to reflect the present market situation. The new approach for the allocation procedure in the inventory of silicon purification, as a critical issue of former studies, is discussed in detail. The LCI for photovoltaic electricity shows that each production stage is important for certain elementary flows. A life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) shows that there are important environmental impacts not directly related to the energy use (e.g., process emissions of NO_x from wafer etching). The assumption for the used supply energy mixes is important for the overall LCIA results of different production stages. The presented life cycle inventories for photovoltaic power plants are representative for newly constructed plants and for the average photovoltaic mix in Switzerland in the year 2000. A scenario for a future technology (until 2010) helps to assess the relative influence of technology improvements for some processes. The very detailed ecoinvent database forms a good basis for similar studies in other European countries or for other types of solar cells. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The present status and future direction of technology development for photovoltaic power generation in Japan

In 2004 NEDO established the PV Roadmap Toward 2030 PV2030 as a long‐term strategy for PV R&D. In this Roadmap, PV is expected by 2030 to supply approximately 50% of residential electricity consumption (cumulative installed capacity in the range of 100 GW). In terms of economic efficiency, electricity costs are targeted to equal commercial use, approximately 14 Yen/kW h, by 2020 and industrial use, approximately 7 Yen/kW h, by 2030. For future PV systems, it is essential to improve the stand‐alone capabilities of PV system with electricity storage and to develop community‐based PV systems using multi‐function inverters. Advanced technological innovations beyond the existing levels are also essential. Therefore, NEDO is undertaking 2‐year projects for preliminary research to make clear the next R&D of solar cells and PV system technology. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rethinking China's strategic mineral policy on indium: implication for the flat screens and photovoltaic industries

Indium is an indispensable component of many products, especially the liquid crystal displays (LCD) flat screens (FS) and thin film photovoltaic (PV) cells. China is the world's largest producer of primary indium and products containing indium. Despite this, there has been relatively little examination of the scarcity and strategic mineral policy for indium. Using a material flow analysis approach, a dynamic model has been built to quantify the indium flows, availability, and scarcity in China. The results show that China has transitioned from primarily exporting indium to primarily consuming indium. Forecasting until the year 2020, the domestic demand is led by LCD televisions and monitors (74%), followed by laptops (8%), and PV cells (5%). Accumulated use of indium in production from 2011 to 2020 could reach 7800 t, that is close to China's estimated 2008 reserves and represents three‐fourths of the world's current total reserves. Despite this, end of life (EoL) recycling is forecasted to be too insignificant to influence the indium market supply in the short term. Therefore, by the year around 2020, China could face a serious shortage of both primary production and EoL‐recovered indium to meet the production demand. From a long‐term perspective, the world's development and installation of thin‐film PV modules could be significantly threatened because indium demand within PV modules could grow rapidly over the coming decades. A promising solution to prevent an indium shortage in China is to promote the urban mining of indium from the EoL FS and PV industries. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term performance degradation of various kinds of photovoltaic modules under moderate climatic conditions

Various kinds of photovoltaic (PV) modules have been developed and practically operated as PV systems up to present. Investigation of the long‐term reliability of PV modules is indispensable for the use of PV systems as reliable energy sources. In this study, we show the results of outdoor exposure test in which the performance of 14 PV modules composed of five different kinds made by six different PV manufacturers have been measured since July 2004. The average performance is calculated in each year from 2005 to 2008, and the performance degradation is quantitatively evaluated. The results are that the magnitude of the performance degradation can be clearly classified by the kinds of the PV modules. The performance difference of the single‐crystalline silicon (sc‐Si) modules between 2005 and 2008 is from 1.9% to 2.8%. Polycrystalline silicon (pc‐Si) modules show performance degradation from 0.7% to 1.4%. The performance of an amorphous silicon/crystalline silicon (a‐Si:H/c‐Si) decreased by 0.7%. Although a pair of a‐Si modules had been already exposed to sunlight for about 6 months, the pair of modules show 4.4% of performance degradation. More than half of the performance degradation happened during the initial period from 2005 to 2006. This indicates that it takes about 2 years until the performance of a‐Si modules is stable. The performance is quite stable after 2006. Interestingly, the performance of the cupper indium gallium diselenide modules in 2008 is about 0.8% higher than that in 2005. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A foggy notion [solar photovoltaic power system]

When completed, the Bavarian Solarpark will count as one of the largest photovoltaic power plants in the world. With 57,600 solar panels covering a total of 25 hectares of farmland, the 10-megawatt peak station actually consists of three collector installations located within a 50 km radius. While the plant is expected to partially replace Germany's nuclear and fossil fuel power plants with homegrown solar PV plants, the losses due to transmission of central station solar power negate the benefits enjoyed by users of on-site solar generation. The ultimate goal, however, is to foster the growth of a global PV industry and to count on economies of scale to bring the price of PV down to levels that even developing countries can afford.     

Low-cost industrial technologies of crystalline silicon solar cells

Approximately 2 billion people, mainly in Third World countries, are not connected to an electric grid. The standard, centralized grid development is too expensive and time consuming to solve the energy demand problem. Therefore, there is a need for decentralized renewable energy sources. The main attractiveness of solar cells is that they generate electricity directly from sunlight and can be mounted in modular, stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) systems. Particular attention is paid in this paper to crystalline silicon solar cells, since bulk silicon solar-cell (mono and multi) modules comprise approximately 85% of all worldwide PV module shipments. Energy conversion efficiency as high as 24% has been achieved on laboratory, small-area monocrystalline silicon cells, whereas the typical efficiency of industrial crystalline silicon solar cells is in the range of 13-16%. The market price of PV modules remains for the last few years in the range of $3.5-4.5/watt peak (Wp). For the photovoltaic industry, the biggest concern is to improve the efficiency and decrease the price of the commercial PV modules. Efficiency-enhancement techniques of commercial cells are described in detail. Adaptation of many high-efficiency features to industrially fabricated solar cells. The latest study shows that increasing the PV market size toward 500 MWp/y and accounting for realistic industrial improvements can lead to a drastic PV module price reduction down to $1/Wp     

Low-dimensional materials for photovoltaic application

The photovoltaic(PV)market is currently dominated by silicon based solar cells.However technological diversification is essential to promote competition,which is the driving force for technological growth.Historically,the choice of PV materials has been limited to the three-dimensional(3D)compounds with a high crystal symmetry and direct band gap.However,to meet the strict demands for sustainable PV applications,material space has been expanded beyond 3D compounds.In this perspective we discuss the potential of low-dimensional materials(2D,1D)for application in PVs.We present unique features of low-dimensional materials in context of their suitability in the solar cells.The band gap,absorption,carrier dynamics,mobility,defects,surface states and growth kinetics are discussed and compared to 3D counterparts,providing a comprehensive view of prospects of low-dimensional materials.Structural dimensionality leads to a highly anisotropic carrier transport,complex defect chemistry and peculiar growth dynamics.By providing fundamental insights into these challenges we aim to deepen the understanding of low-dimensional materials and expand the scope of their application.Finally,we discuss the current research status and development trend of solar cell devices made of low-dimensional materials.     

Recent progress in silicon-based solid-state solar cells

Silicon (Si)-based solar cells constitute about 90% of the photovoltaic (PV) market, and a drastic reduction in module cost and significant improvement in PV performance have been observed since its first inception in 1941. This article aims to present the comprehensive review of prominent advancements enacted in Si solar cells after the year 2000. Monocrystalline Si solar cell has been the matured technology with the record efficiency (η) of 26.6% achieved so far. As the drive to push η around 30% Schokley–Quiesser limit is foreseeable in the near future, PV community is actively striving to fabricate efficient yet cost-effective devices. Polycrystalline Si solar cells contain small-sized grains, and efforts are underway to enhance the η beyond 21.9% by controlling the recombination at grain boundaries, optimising the passivated interfaces and deposition process. Thin-film amorphous Si technology proffers low-cost fabrication process and η of 13.6% has been recorded for a multijunction solar cell. Employment of sophisticated nanowire-based light trapping schemes and dopant-free carrier-selective layers along with the development of hybrid solar cells of organic and Si materials are among the emerging research trends for Si solar cells.     

Future development promise for plastic‐based solar electricity

Plastic‐based photovoltaic (PV) technology, also known as organic photovoltaic (OPV), has the development promise to be one of the third PV generation technologies, practically where sunlight reaches a surface area both indoors and outdoors. This paper presents the economic forecast for solar electricity using OPV technology based on a 1 kWp domestic system. With reference to OPV roll‐to‐roll manufacturing, the paper discusses lifetime, efficiency, and costs factors of this emerging PV technology. Taking an outlook of historic PV technology developments and reflect future anticipated technology developments, the future levelised electricity cost is calculated using system life cycle costing techniques. Grid parity at levelised electricity cost below 25 c/kWh may already be reached within 10 years' time, and the technology would have been widespread, assuming a typical southern Europe average solar irradiance of 1700 kWh/m²/year. The influence of solar irradiance and the way the module performs over long periods of time expecting various degradation levels is studied using sensitivity analysis. Eventually, the financial attractiveness to mature silicon‐based PV technology may decline suddenly as financial support schemes such as the popular Feed‐in‐Tariffs dry out. This would give rise to other promising solutions that have already been proven to be less energy intensive and cheaper to produce but may require a different integration model than present technologies. This paper demonstrates that under no financial support schemes emerging PV technologies such as OPV will manage to attract business and further developments. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Annual degradation rates of recent crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules

Long‐term reliability and durability of recently installed photovoltaic (PV) systems are currently unclear because they have so far only been operated for short periods. Here, we investigated the quality of six types of recent crystalline silicon PV modules to study the viability of PV systems as dispersed power generation systems under operating conditions connected to an electric power grid. Three indicators were used to estimate the annual degradation rates of the various crystalline silicon PV modules: energy yield, performance ratio, and indoor power. Module performance was assessed both with indoor and outdoor measurements using electric measurements taken over a 3‐year period. The trends in the results of the three indicators were almost consistent with each other. Although the performance of the newly installed PV modules decreased by over 2% owing to initial light‐induced degradation immediately after installation, little to no degradation was observed in all the PV modules composed of p‐type solar cells over a 3‐year operation period. However, the PV modules composed of n‐type solar cells clearly displayed performance degradation originating from the reduction of open‐circuit voltage or potential‐induced degradation. The results indicate that a more continuous and detailed outdoor actual investigation is important to study the quality of new, high‐efficiency solar cells, such as heterojunction, interdigitated back contact solar cells, and passivated emitter rear cells, which are set to dominate the PV markets in the future. © 2017 The Authors. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

The potential of III‐V semiconductors as terrestrial photovoltaic devices

III‐V semiconductors, GaAs and in particular InGaP, are used in many different electronic applications, such as high power and high frequency devices, laser diodes and high brightness LED. Their direct bandgap and high reliability make them ideal candidates for the realisation of high efficiency solar cells: in the past years they have been successfully used as power sources for satellites in space, where they are able to produce electricity from sunlight with an overall efficiency of around 30%. Nowadays, the use of arsenides and phosphides as photovoltaic (PV) devices is confined only to space applications since their price is much higher than conventional Si flat panel modules, the leading PV market technology. But with the introduction of multijunction solar cells capable of operating in high concentration solar light, the area and, therefore, the cost of these cells can be reduced and will eventually find an application and market also on Earth. This article will review the situation of semiconductor solar cell materials, focusing on Si, GaAs, InGaP and multijunction solar cells and will discuss future trends and possibilities of bringing III‐V technology from space to Earth. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Solar and photovoltaic forecasting through post‐processing of the Global Environmental Multiscale numerical weather prediction model

Hourly solar and photovoltaic (PV) forecasts for horizons between 0 and 48 h ahead were developed using Environment Canada's Global Environmental Multiscale model. The motivation for this research was to explore PV forecasting in Ontario, Canada, where feed‐in tariffs are driving rapid growth in installed PV capacity. The solar and PV forecasts were compared with irradiance data from 10 North‐American ground stations and with alternating current power data from three Canadian PV systems. A 1‐year period was used to train the forecasts, and the following year was used for testing. Two post‐processing methods were applied to the solar forecasts: spatial averaging and bias removal using a Kalman filter. On average, these two methods lead to a 43% reduction in root mean square error (RMSE) over a persistence forecast (skill score = 0.67) and to a 15% reduction in RMSE over the Global Environmental Multiscale forecasts without post‐processing (skill score = 0.28). Bias removal was primarily useful when considering a “regional” forecast for the average irradiance of the 10 ground stations because bias was a more significant fraction of RMSE in this case. PV forecast accuracy was influenced mainly by the underlying (horizontal) solar forecast accuracy, with RMSE ranging from 6.4% to 9.2% of rated power for the individual PV systems. About 76% of the PV forecast errors were within ±5% of the rated power for the individual systems, but the largest errors reached up to 44% to 57% of rated power. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2011. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Natural Resources Canada.     

C‐Si solar cell modules

In order to meet the rapidly growing demand for solar power photovoltaic systems which is based on public consciousness of global environmental issues, SHARP has increased the production of solar cells and modules over 10‐fold in the last 5 years. Silicon‐based technologies are expected to be dominant in the coming decade. In the course of an increase of the annual production scale to 1000 MW, the efficiency of modules will be improved and the thickness of wafers will be decreased and all this will lead to a drastic price reduction of PV systems. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global overview on grid‐parity

Grid‐parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. A grid‐parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given, and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for more than 150 countries and a total of 305 market segments all over the world, representing 98.0% of world population and 99.7% of global gross domestic product. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid‐parity events occur right now. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid‐parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of about 75–90% of total global electricity market. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel‐parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental life cycle assessment of roof‐integrated flexible amorphous silicon/nanocrystalline silicon solar cell laminate

This paper presents an environmental life cycle assessment of a roof‐integrated flexible solar cell laminate with tandem solar cells composed of amorphous silicon/nanocrystalline silicon (a‐Si/nc‐Si). The a‐Si/nc‐Si cells are considered to have 10% conversion efficiency. Their expected service life is 20 years. The production scale considered is 100 MW_p per year. A comparison of the a‐Si/nc‐Si photovoltaic (PV) system with the roof‐mounted multicrystalline silicon (multi‐Si) PV system is also presented. For both PV systems, application in the Netherlands with an annual insolation of 1000 kWh/m² is considered. We found that the overall damage scores of the a‐Si/nc‐Si PV system and the multi‐Si PV system are 0.012 and 0.010 Ecopoints/kWh, respectively. For both PV systems, the impacts due to climate change, human toxicity, particulate matter formation, and fossil resources depletion together contribute to 96% of the overall damage scores. Each of both PV systems has a cumulative primary energy demand of 1.4 MJ/kWh. The cumulative primary energy demand of the a‐Si/nc‐Si PV system has an uncertainty of up to 41%. For the a‐Si/nc‐Si PV system, an energy payback time of 2.3 years is derived. The construction for roof integration, the silicon deposition, and etching are found to be the largest contributors to the primary energy demand of the a‐Si/nc‐Si PV system, whereas encapsulation and the construction for roof integration are the largest contributors to its impact on climate change. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of photovoltaic orientation on its relative economic value in wholesale energy markets

Most calculations of optimum photovoltaic (PV) performance focus on maximizing annual energy production. However, given the seasonally and daily time varying electricity demand and resulting variation in price, the PV orientation resulting in maximum energy yield may not yield the maximum economic benefit. With the use of historical solar irradiance and wholesale market prices for several locations in the USA, we evaluate the benefits of a variety of orientations for fixed and tracking PV arrays. We find that orienting fixed arrays slightly to the west of due south generally increases their economic value in the simulated systems because the reduced generation on an annual basis is more than offset by increased generation in high‐value hours in late summer afternoons. However, this effect is small, typically providing an increase in value from 1% to 5%. The economic value of adjusting the orientation semi‐annually (May 1st and September 1st) and monthly shows a modest increase in value from 3% to 5%. Several other implications of this analysis are also discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Life-cycle assessment of photovoltaic systems: results of Swiss studies on energy chains

The methodology used and results obtained for grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) plants in recent Swiss life-cycle assessment (LCA) studies on current and future energy systems are discussed. Mono- and polycrystalline silicon cell technologies utilized in current panels as well as monocrystalline and amorphous cells for future applications were analysed for Swiss conditions. The environmental inventories of slanted-roof solar panels and large plants are presented. Greenhouse gas emissions from present and future electricity systems are compared. The high electricity requirements for manufacturing determine most of the environmental burdens associated with current photovoltaics. However, due to increasing efficiency of production processes and cells, the environmental performance of PV systems is likely to improve substantially in the future. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Operation of series‐connected silicon‐based photovoltaic modules under partial shading conditions

Partial shading has been recognized as a major cause of energy losses in photovoltaic (PV) power generators. Partial shading has severe effects on the electrical characteristics of the PV power generator, because it causes multiple maximum power points (MPPs) to the power‐voltage curve. Multiple maxima complicate MPP tracking, and the tracking algorithms are often unable to detect the global maximum. Considerable amount of available electrical energy may be lost, when a local MPP with low power is tracked instead of the global MPP. In this paper, the electrical characteristics of series‐connected silicon‐based PV modules under various partial shading conditions are studied by using a Matlab/Simulink simulation model. The simulation model consists of 18 series‐connected PV modules, corresponding to a single‐phase grid‐connected PV power generator. The validity of the simulation model has been verified by experimental measurements. The voltage and power characteristics of the PV power generator have been investigated under various system shading and shading strength conditions. The results can be utilized to develop new MPP tracking algorithms and in designing, for example, building integrated PV power generators. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.