The impact of Ontario's extended drinking hours on cross-border cities of Windsor and Detroit

PURPOSE: This study evaluated the cross-border safety impact of extended drinking hours from 1:00 to 2:00 a.m., in licensed establishments in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: This study examined patterns in total and alcohol-related casualties in: (1) Windsor, Ontario, Canada compared to Detroit, Michigan, US with a 2:00 a.m. closing time, and (2) Ontario compared to Michigan for overall trends. The criterion outcome indicators were: (1) monthly motor vehicle casualties (major injuries and fatalities) for the city-regions of Windsor and Detroit and (2) Ontario and Michigan monthly motor vehicle fatalities occurring between 11:00 p.m. and 3:00 a.m. for 4 years pre- and 3 years post-policy change. In order to examine cross-border drinking consequences, data were disaggregated to assess trends of motor vehicle injury collisions involving vehicles with US licence plates and with US drivers aged 16-20 in the Windsor region; similarly trends were assessed for motor vehicle injury collisions involving vehicles with Ontario licence plates in the Detroit region. RESULTS: The Windsor region total motor vehicle casualty data showed a non-significant pre-post increase, while the Detroit region showed a statistically significant decrease for total motor vehicle casualties. In the Windsor region, a significant increase was found for alcohol-related motor vehicle casualties after the drinking hours were extended. However, the Detroit region showed a statistically significant decrease in alcohol-related motor vehicle casualties concomitant with Ontario's drinking hour extension. No similar trends were found for the province of Ontario and the state of Michigan as a whole. Moreover, a significant decrease was found for injury collisions involving vehicles with Ontario licence plates in the Detroit region but no similar pattern was found for injury collisions involving vehicles with US licence plates and with 16-20-year-old US drivers in the Windsor region. DISCUSSION: These data seem to support a cross-border impact of the Ontario extended drinking policy. A significant increase in alcohol-related motor vehicle casualties was found in the Windsor region and concomitantly, significant decreases in total and alcohol-related motor vehicle casualties were found in the Detroit region after the extended drinking hours amendment. The Ontario government's belief that the extended drinking hour policy would "reduce the number of patrons who cross the border when Ontario's bars and restaurants close" may have been realized.     

Pedestrian fatalities and alcohol

Since the share of alcohol-positive victims has been reported not to show the same reduction in pedestrian fatalities as in other 'road users', this study analysed pedestrian fatalities with special emphasis on the presence of alcohol. Autopsied pedestrian fatalities (286 victims) in northern Sweden from 1977 to 1995 were investigated, using autopsy and police reports. Blood alcohol was detected in 19% of the fatalities, with a median concentration of 1.6 g/l. The proportion of test-positive victims did not change significantly during the period of study. Males more often tested positive for alcohol than females (24 vs. 11%). Further, the test-positive victims had a lower mean age (49 vs. 59 years) and the proportion of test-positive victims was higher during weekends and nights. Pedestrian fatalities testing positive for alcohol differ from those testing negative in several respects. The public should be enlightened of the fact that drinking is a risk not only among users of motor vehicles, but also among pedestrians. Separation of pedestrians from motor vehicles by, e.g. fences, is of greatest importance.     

The relationship between alcoholrelated traffic fatalities and per capita consumption of alcohol, Ontario, 1957–1983

In this research, the impact of per capita consumption of alcohol on alcohol-related traffic fatalities in Ontario between 1957 and 1983 was examined. Three measures of alcohol involvement were selected. The first, drinking drivers (police reported) involved in fatal accidents, was a direct measure. The second and third, single-vehicle fatal accidents and nighttime fatal accidents, were surrogate measures. Also, three corresponding measures of fatal accidents not involving alcohol (normal drivers [police reported] involved in fatal accidents, multiple vehicle fatal accidents, and daytime fatal accidents) were chosen to control for general road safety trends. The results of regression analyses indicated that both per capita consumption and general road safety trends were significant contributors to all three measures of alcohol-involved fatalities. These and other recent data suggest that any effort to prevent alcohol-related problems such as liver cirrhosis through control of per capita consumption will also have a beneficial impact on alcohol-related accidents.     

Some biases in the alcohol investigative process in traffic fatalities.

This study compares data regarding alcohol involvement from police records and from chemical analyses of body fluids taken prior to or after death of 121 traffic fatalities in Washtenaw County, Michigan. Differences regarding the choice of who will or will not be screened for alcohol were found. The police and emergency room personnel were more likely to focus on males and drivers, while medical examiners were less biased. The police documented whether or not drinking took place in only 36% of the cases and suspected drinking in only half of these cases. Males and at-fault drivers were most likely to be investigated. Blood alcohol level was measured before death in 11 of 29 emergency room treated victims, with 10 (91%) positive samples. All but two of those tested before death were drivers, and all but one were males. After death, blood alcohol was measured in 47% of the 121 cases, with a higher proportion of males and motor-vehicle occupants tested, compared to females and pedestrians. Alcohol was detected in 63% of the samples. A lower mean blood alcohol concentration was found in victims who received intravenous treatment, and a higher proportion of positive samples was found in victims who died immediately in the crash. Thus, the frequency of alcohol-related traffic fatalities varied between the different data sources. The police records revealed 51%, the emergency records 91%, and the medical examiner records 63% with alcohol involvement. This wide discrepancy has the potential of leading to erroneous results here and possibly in studies done elsewhere.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

The fraction of traffic fatalities attributable to alcohol

The vast literature on alcohol's effect on traffic safety does not contain even a moderately satisfactory answer to one of the most basic questions, namely “What is the fraction of all traffic fatalities attributable to alcohol use?” A published estimate of 23.7% based on an erroneous calculation has been widely quoted. This paper combines 1987 Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) data from 26 states that recorded blood alcohol concentrations for over 84% of fatally injured drivers with published estimates on how alcohol affects crash risk. By categorizing all traffic fatalities as either nonoccupants of vehicles, or occupants killed in single-vehicle, two-vehicle or three-or-more-vehicle crashes, and developing calculation procedures appropriate for each category, the fraction of all fatalities due to alcohol was inferred. The main finding was that eliminating alcohol would reduce traffic fatalities by (47 ± 4)%. It was also concluded that alcohol use changes from 1982 to 1987 have reduced traffic fatalities by 12% (6,400 fatalities), which helps explain the absence of the fatality increase predicted because of a buoyant economy. Reducing the fraction of fatalities due to alcohol from the 1987 value of 47% to 42% (say) would reduce all traffic fatalities by 8%.     

Traffic fatalities and economic growth

This paper examines the relationship between traffic fatality risk and per capita income and uses it to forecast traffic fatalities by geographic region. Equations for the road death rate (fatalities/population) and its components--the rate of motorization (vehicles/population) and fatalities per vehicle (F/V)--are estimated using panel data from 1963 to 1999 for 88 countries. The natural logarithm of F/P, V/P, and F/V are expressed as spline (piecewise linear) functions of the logarithm of real per capita GDP (measured in 1985 international prices). Region-specific time trends during the period 1963-1999 are modeled in linear and log-linear form. These models are used to project traffic fatalities and the stock of motor vehicles to 2020. The per capita income at which traffic fatality risk (fatalities/population) begins to decline is 8600 US dollars (1985 international dollars) when separate time trends are used for each geographic region. This turning point is driven by the rate of decline in fatalities/vehicles as income rises since vehicles/population, while increasing with income at a decreasing rate, never declines with economic growth. Projections of future traffic fatalities suggest that the global road death toll will grow by approximately 66% over the next twenty years. This number, however, reflects divergent rates of change in different parts of the world: a decline in fatalities in high-income countries of approximately 28% versus an increase in fatalities of almost 92% in China and 147% in India. The road death rate is projected to rise to approximately 2 per 10,000 persons in developing countries by 2020, while it will fall to less than 1 per 10,000 in high-income countries.     

Preliminary estimates of the effects of mandatory seat belt use laws

Analyses of motor vehicle fatality counts in New York and several comparison states for the years 1980 through 1985 indicate that New York's seat belt use law reduced fatalities by about nine percent during the first nine months of the law. This estimate is preliminary, and the estimated long-term effect of the law could change as more sophisticated analyses are applied to the data and as belt use changes (it had declined to less than 50 percent over most of the state by the end of the first year of the law). In addition, New York's law is one of the strongest in terms of enforceability, and the effect may be smaller in states with weaker laws. However, the estimated effect in New York is consistent with the experience of other countries with seat belt use laws.     

The turning point in the number of traffic fatalities: Two hypotheses about changes in underlying trends

The number of traffic fatalities reached a peak in many highly motorised countries around 1970. Some previous studies have suggested that the turning point in the number of traffic fatalities was inevitable and did not reflect a change in the underlying trends influencing the number of traffic fatalities. Other studies suggest that trends in traffic growth and fatality rate changed from before to after the turning point. This paper proposes two hypotheses about the turning point in the number of traffic fatalities. One hypothesis is that the long-term trends in traffic growth and fatality rate were the same before and after the turning point. The other hypothesis is that the long-term trends in traffic growth and fatality rate were different before and after the turning point was reached, in particular that the annual percentage decline in fatality rate became greater after the turning point than before. Such a change would suggest that road safety policy became more effective. Analysis of data for six countries (Denmark, Great Britain, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United States) lends stronger support to the latter hypothesis than to the former. The lesson for policy makers, in particular in countries where the number of traffic fatalities is still growing, is that they should not expect a turning point to be reached without policy interventions.     

Retail alcohol monopolies, underage drinking, and youth impaired driving deaths

OBJECTIVE: To explore associations of state retail alcohol monopolies with underage drinking and alcohol-impaired driving deaths. DATA: Surveys on youth who drank alcohol and binge-drank recently and their beverage choices; census of motor vehicle fatalities by driver blood alcohol level. METHODS: Regressions estimated associations of monopolies with under-21 drinking, binge drinking, alcohol-impaired driving deaths, and odds a driver under 21 who died was alcohol-positive. RESULTS: About 93.8% of those ages 12-20 who consumed alcohol in the past month drank some wine or spirits. In states with a retail monopoly over spirits or wine and spirits, an average of 14.5% fewer high school students reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days and 16.7% fewer reported binge drinking in the past 30 days than high school students in non-monopoly states. Monopolies over both wine and spirits were associated with larger consumption reductions than monopolies over spirits only. Lower consumption rates in monopoly states, in turn, were associated with a 9.3% lower alcohol-impaired driving death rate under age 21 in monopoly states versus non-monopoly states. Alcohol monopolies may prevent 45 impaired driving deaths annually. CONCLUSIONS: Continuing existing retail alcohol monopolies should help control underage drinking and associated harms.     

Trends in alcohol-impaired driving in Canada

While a general decreasing trend in the number of persons killed in a traffic crash involving a drinking driver has occurred in Canada since the 1980s, it is evident that much of this decrease occurred in the 1990s. Since 2002, less progress has been made as the number of persons killed in crashes involving drinking drivers remains high. To better understand the current situation, this paper describes trends in drinking and driving in Canada from 1998 to 2011 using multiple indicators based on data collected for the Traffic Injury Research Foundation's (TIRF) Road Safety Monitor (RSM), the National Opinion Poll on Drinking and Driving, and trends in alcohol-related crashes based on data collected for TIRF's national Fatality Database in Canada. There has been a continued and consistent decrease in the number of fatalities involving a drinking driver in Canada. This remains true when looking at the number of fatalities involving a drinking driver per 100,000 population and per 100,000 licensed drivers. This decreasing trend is also still apparent when considering the percentage of persons killed in a traffic crash in Canada involving a drinking driver although less pronounced. Data from the RSM further show that the percentage of those who reported driving after they thought they were over the legal limit has also declined. However, regardless of the apparent decreasing trend in drinking driving fatalities and behaviour, reductions have been relatively modest, and fatalities in crashes involving drivers who have consumed alcohol remain high at unacceptable levels.     

Magnitude and categories of pedestrian fatalities in South Africa

Road traffic injuries, a major global public health burden, are concentrated in low-income and middle-income countries.(1) In contrast to high-income countries, pedestrians make up the largest group of road traffic injuries and fatalities in low- and middle-income countries. This article presents an analysis of pedestrian fatalities (2001-2004) in four South African cities. The article describes the magnitude, demographic, and temporal factors associated with pedestrian fatalities and presents a typological analysis to identify particular groups of at risk pedestrians. The analysis can serve to inform the development of prevention programmes tailored to the needs of specific at risk pedestrian groups. Data were obtained from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System (NIMSS). The results indicated that there were a total of 7433 pedestrian deaths (2001-2004) for the four cities and the majority occurred over weekends. Most (56.7%) were between ages 20 and 44 years. Overall, there were 3.3 male pedestrian deaths for every female pedestrian death, and over half (58%) of the 4004 cases tested were positive for alcohol. A typological analysis identified three categories of pedestrian fatalities: (1) male pedestrian fatalities that showed high levels of alcohol concentrations, (2) female and elderly pedestrian deaths that occurred between 6 AM and midday, and (3) children, adolescents, and young adult pedestrian fatalities that typically occurred during weekday afternoons and evenings. The findings call for multiple strategies for combating pedestrian fatalities.     

The stability of long-term trends in the number of traffic fatalities in a sample of highly motorised countries

This paper examines the stability of long-term trends in the number of traffic fatalities in eight highly motorised countries: Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, The Netherlands, Great Britain, Australia and The United States. In all these countries, the number of traffic fatalities reached a peak around 1970-1972 and has since declined. The decline has, however, been irregular and fairly long periods of stagnation or even increase in the number of fatalities have occurred in all countries. A stable trend is defined in this paper as a trend that remains unchanged and therefore can be used to successfully predict the future number of fatalities by means of extrapolation. It is concluded that the trends towards fewer fatalities in the countries selected have not been stable and that even trend lines that fit past trends very closely are usually worthless for predictive purposes. An attempt was made to identify factors influencing long-term trends by fitting negative binomial regression models to fatality data. Although some of the models fitted the data marginally better than simple trend lines, these models are not necessarily more useful for predicting future trends than simple trend lines, since using the models for prediction requires that future changes in all explanatory variables must be predicted. The chief lesson is that past trends do not provide a reliable basis for predicting future developments with respect to the number of traffic fatalities.     

Farm work related fatalities among adults in Victoria, Australia: the human cost of agriculture

The purpose of this study was to review the patterns of, and trends in, farm work related fatalities among adults in one Australian state for the period 1985-1996. Fatality data was provided by the Victorian Workcover Authority Health and Safety Division. Trends were determined using regression techniques assuming a Poisson error structure for annual fatality rates. Results showed an annual average of eight deaths. Males, and those 60 years and over, were over-represented, compared to persons employed. Tractor incidents were the most common type of fatality (72%), with tractor roll overs accounting for 61% of all tractor incidents. Non tractor fatalities included being hit by a falling object and transport incidents. Statistical trend analyses revealed a non significant decrease in the tractor roll over fatality rate, and significant increases in the all farm (P = 0.004) and non tractor fatality rates (P = 0.036). The 3 year moving average rate for non tractor farm fatalities has increased to the point where it exceeds that for tractor roll over fatalities, and is approaching that for all tractor fatalities. Changes within the agricultural industry, coupled with the ageing of the farm workforce, appear to placing Victorian farmers at increased risk of farm work related death.     

A statistical model to compare road mortality in OECD countries

The objective of this paper is to compare safety levels and trends in OECD countries from 1980 to 1994 with the help of a statistical model and to launch international discussion and further research about international comparisons. Between 1980 and 1994, the annual number of fatalities decreased drastically in all the selected countries except Japan (+ 12%), Greece (+ 56%) and ex-East Germany (+ 50%). The highest decreases were observed in ex-West Germany (- 48%), Switzerland (- 44%), Australia (- 40%), and UK (- 39%). In France, the decrease in fatalities over the same period reached 34%. The fatality rate, an indicator of risk, decreased in the selected countries from 1980 to 1994 except in the east-European countries during the motorization boom in the late 1980s. As fatality rates are not sufficient for international comparisons, a statistical multiple regression model is set up to compare road safety levels in 21 OECD countries over 15 years. Data were collected from IRTAD (International Road Traffic and Accident Database) and other OECD statistical sources. The number of fatalities is explained by seven exogenous (to road safety) variables. The model, pooling cross-sectional and time series data, supplies estimates of elasticity to the fatalities for each variable: 0.96 for the population; 0.28 for the vehicle fleet per capita; -0.16 for the percentage of buses and coaches in the motorised vehicle fleet; 0.83 for the percentage of youngsters in the population; - 0.41 for the percentage of urban population; 0.39 for alcohol consumption per capita; and 0.39 for the percentage of employed people. The model also supplies a rough estimate of the safety performance of a country: the regression residuals are supposed to contain the effects of essentially endogenous and unobserved variables, independent to the exogenous variables. These endogenous variables are safety performance variables (safety actions, traffic safety policy, network improvements and social acceptance). A new indicator, better than the mortality rate, is then set upon the residuals. Mean estimates of this indicator for the years 1980-1982 and the years 1992-1994 rank the countries in the beginning and at the end of the study period. Countries showing the best ranks (and thus the best performance) in 1980 and 1994 are Sweden, the Netherlands and Norway. The UK and Switzerland reach the top 5 in 1994. Greece, Belgium, Portugal and Spain are the last countries in the classification along with, surprisingly, the USA. France was ranked 18th in 1980 and 15th in 1994 but is ranked amongst the five countries that most improved from 1980 to 1994. This model remains non definitive because it is not able to distinguish between safety performance and unobserved exogenous variables although these exogenous variables could explain more about the differences in levels and trends between the countries. More complex models, particularly highly sophisticated models regarding the number of fatalities with breakdowns by road users or road classes would be needed to give a precise and profound ranking of safety levels and safety improvements between countries.     

Drinking and driving by young females

Recent research indicates that women are drinking and driving more often and that the proportion of female drivers involved in fatal crashes is increasing. U.S. Fatal Accident Reporting System data (Fell 1987) suggest that although overall alcohol involvement rates in fatal crashes have been declining for the past four years, the rates for females aged 21-24 have not, and their alcohol involvement rate in late-night single vehicle (SV) crashes, a surrogate measure of alcohol-related (A/R) crashes, is almost as high as that of male drivers. This paper examines the involvement of North Carolina (NC) female drivers who are less than 35 years of age for the period of 1976 through 1985 and reports on trends in driver licensing, arrests for drinking and driving, SV nighttime and A/R crashes, and measured blood alcohol levels in fatalities. It identifies an emerging driving-while-impaired (DWI) problem for younger women, particularly those 21 to 24 years of age. Significant trends pertaining to the involvement of women will have implications for the design and implementation of educational, deterrence, enforcement, and rehabilitation programs.     

Active transportation: Do current traffic safety policies protect non-motorists?

Objective

This study investigated the impact that state traffic safety regulations have on non-motorist fatality rates.

Methods

Data obtained from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), and the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) were analyzed through a pooled time series cross-sectional model using fixed effects regression for all 50 states from 1999 to 2009. Two dependent variables were used in separate models measuring annual state non-motorist fatalities per million population, and the natural log of state non-motorist fatalities. Independent variables measuring traffic policies included state expenditures for highway law enforcement and safety per capita; driver cell phone use regulations; graduated driver license regulations; driver blood alcohol concentration regulations; bike helmet regulations; and seat belt regulations. Other control variables included percent of all vehicle miles driven that are urban and mean per capita alcohol consumption per year.

Results

Non-motorist traffic safety was positively impacted by state highway law enforcement and safety expenditures per capita, with a decrease in non-motorist fatalities occurring with increased spending. Per capita consumption of alcohol also influenced non-motorist fatalities, with higher non-motorist fatalities occurring with higher per capita consumption of alcohol. Other traffic safety covariates did not appear to have a significant impact on non-motorist fatality rates in the models.

Conclusion

Our research suggests that increased expenditures on state highway and traffic safety and the initiation/expansion of programs targeted at curbing both driver and non-motorist intoxication are a starting point for the implementation of traffic safety policies that reduce risks for non-motorists.     

Work-related maritime fatalities

All maritime fatalities investigated by Coroners that occurred in Australia from 1992 to 1998 inclusive have been collated, coded and recorded in the Australian Boating Injury Database: Fatal Injury (ABID:FI). This article focuses on the work-related maritime fatalities recorded in the database. Over the period 1992-1998 there were 74 fatalities involving people who were working for income at the time of the incident: 46 commercial fishermen, 12 seamen involved in the transport of cargo and 16 miscellaneous workers. The fatality rate of commercial fishermen has declined substantially in Australia over recent years. The main contributing factors were: hazardous conditions; an error of judgement; unsafe work practices; and failure to wear a personal flotation device (PFD) in circumstances where, in the opinion of the Coroners, it would have saved life. Hazardous conditions were much more of a factor in fishermen deaths than in other maritime deaths. Most vessels involved had an insufficient number of PFDs for the number of crew on board. The Australian fatal injury database should be updated with the details of recent fatalities in order to further monitor safety performance, causal factors and prevention measures in the maritime industry in Australia. Attention should be focused on reducing alcohol use and increasing PFD availability and usage. In order to continue to improve safety, it is essential that a constructive dialogue is maintained with industry sources, informed by independent research and up-to-date information.     

A note on the variance of paired comparisons estimates

The method of paired comparisons to estimate treatment effectiveness was introduced by Evans (Evans L. Double pair comparison--a new method to determine how occupant characteristics affect fatality risk in traffic crashes. Accident Analysis and Prevention 1985;12:217-27). It is similar in form to other effectiveness estimates based on odds ratios using independent groups. Therefore, it has been generally assumed that the variance is computed in the same way. In this note, it is demonstrated. using a simple binomial model and linear approximation, that the variance is lower for paired comparisons estimates than for odds ratios estimates based on independent groups. In order to use odds ratios, there must be a treated group and an untreated group. Within each group there are occurrences of an event against which treatment effectiveness is being estimated and, also, occurrences of different event that is considered unamenable to the treatment. The treatment effectiveness, e, is estimated by 1-R where R is the ratio of amenable type events to unamenable ones in the treated group, divided by the same ratio for the untreated group. A distinction is made between 'real' paired comparisons and odds ratios based on independent data. An example of the independent case is. x is the number of fatalities in frontal crashes without air bags; y the number of fatalities in non-frontal crashes without air bags; s the number of fatalities in frontal crashes with air bags, and t the number of fatalities in non-frontal crashes with air bags. While fatalities in non-frontal crashes serve as denominators in R, a particular frontal crash is not paired with one particular non-frontal crash. In this case, in which all the data are independent, the variance of e is approximately R2(1/x + 1/y + 1/s + 1/t), a result which is consistent with well known results about the log odds ratio. For an example of real paired comparisons, we consider fatalities in cars that have a driver and exactly one unbelted right front seat passenger. Suppose there were x driver fatalities and y passenger fatalities in the cars in which the driver was also unbelted and s driver fatalities and t passenger fatalities in the cars in which the driver was belted. Since the fate of the passenger would not be amenable to 'treating' the driver, the same estimate of belt effectiveness based on these data. 1 - (s/t)/(x/y), is reasonable. In this case, x and y, and s and t are not independent. This is due to the fact that while the overall probability of fatality in a crash is very low, the conditional probability of fatality given that someone else in the car died is greater than the unconditional probability of fatality. Under these circumstances, the variance of the paired comparisons estimate is reduced. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.     

The role of alcohol use on recent trends in distracted driving

Distracted driving is now an increasingly deadly threat to road safety. We provide evidence that intoxicated driving is increasingly responsible for recent increases in fatalities from distracted driving crashes. This study describes trends in deaths on U.S. public roads caused by alcohol-involved and distracted drivers using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS)—a census of fatal crashes on U.S. public roads. Fatality rates per vehicle-miles traveled are calculated using data from the Federal Highway Administration. Alcohol-involved drivers who are simultaneously distracted were responsible for 1750 deaths in 2009, an increase of more than 63% from 2005 when there were 1072 deaths. Alcohol use while driving is increasingly responsible for a growing number of fatalities from distracted driving, accounting for 32% of deaths from distracted driving in 2009 versus 24% in 2005. The fatality rate from these crashes increased from 35.9 to 59.2 deaths per 100 billion vehicle-miles traveled after 2005. Alcohol use is quickly increasing as an important factor behind distracted driving fatalities. This has implications for policies combating distracted driving that do not address the role of alcohol use in distracted driving.     

Relating traffic fatalities to GDP in Europe on the long term

Modeling road safety development can provide important insight into policies for the reduction of traffic fatalities. In order to achieve this goal, both the quantifiable impact of specific parameters, as well as the underlying trends that cannot always be measured or observed, need to be considered. One of the key relationships in road safety links fatalities with risk and exposure, where exposure reflects the amount of travel, which in turn translates to how much travelers are exposed to risk. In general two economic variables: GDP and unemployment rate are selected to analyse the statistical relationships with some indicators of road accident fatality risk.The objective of this research is to provide an overview of relevant literature on the topic and outline some recent developments in macro-panel data analysis that have resulted in ongoing research that has the potential to improve our ability to forecast traffic fatality trends, especially under turbulent financial situations. For this analysis, time series of the number of fatalities and GDP in 30 European countries for a period of 38 years (1975–2012) are used. This process relies on estimating long-term models (as captured by long term time-series models, which model each country separately). Based on these developments, utilizing state-of-the-art modelling and analysis techniques such as the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimator (Pesaran), the long-term elasticity mean value equals 0.63, and is significantly different from zero for 10 countries only. When we take away the countries, where the number of fatalities is stationary, the average elasticity takes a higher value of nearly 1. This shows the strong sensitivity of the estimate of the average elasticity over a panel of European countries and underlines the necessity to be aware of the underlying nature of the time series, to get a suitable regression model.