Identification of optimal strategies for energy management systems planning under multiple uncertainties

Management of energy resources is crucial for many regions throughout the world. Many economic, environmental and political factors are having significant effects on energy management practices, leading to a variety of uncertainties in relevant decision making. The objective of this research is to identify optimal strategies in the planning of energy management systems under multiple uncertainties through the development of a fuzzy-random interval programming (FRIP) model. The method is based on an integration of the existing interval linear programming (ILP), superiority–inferiority-based fuzzy-stochastic programming (SI-FSP) and mixed integer linear programming (MILP). Such a FRIP model allows multiple uncertainties presented as interval values, possibilistic and probabilistic distributions, as well as their combinations within a general optimization framework. It can also be used for facilitating capacity-expansion planning of energy-production facilities within a multi-period and multi-option context. Complexities in energy management systems can be systematically reflected, thus applicability of the modeling process can be highly enhanced. The developed method has then been applied to a case of long-term energy management planning for a region with three cities. Useful solutions for the planning of energy management systems were generated. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation were obtained. They could be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help decision makers identify desired policies under various economic and system-reliability constraints. The solutions can also provide desired energy resource/service allocation and capacity-expansion plans with a minimized system cost, a maximized system reliability and a maximized energy security. Tradeoffs between system costs and constraint-violation risks could be successfully tackled, i.e., higher costs will increase system stability, while a desire for lower system costs will run into a risk of potential instability of the management system. Moreover, multiple uncertainties existing in the planning of energy management systems can be effectively addressed, improving robustness of the existing optimization methods.     

An interval full-infinite mixed-integer programming method for planning municipal energy systems – A case study of Beijing

In this study, an interval full-infinite mixed-integer municipal-scale energy model (IFMI-MEM) is developed for planning energy systems of Beijing. IFMI-MEM is based on an integration of existing interval-parameter programming (IPP), mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) and full-infinite programming (FIP) techniques. IFMI-MEM allows uncertainties expressed as determinates, crisp interval values and functional intervals to be incorporated within a general optimization framework. It can also facilitate capacity-expansion planning for energy-production facilities within a multi-period and multi-option context. Then, IFMI-MEM is applied to a real case study of energy systems planning in Beijing. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They are helpful for supporting (a) adjustment of the existing demand and supply patterns of energy resources, (b) facilitation of dynamic analysis for decisions of capacity expansion and/or development planning, and (c) coordination of the conflict interactions among economic cost, system efficiency, pollutant mitigation and energy-supply security.     

A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems

This paper includes a review of the different computer tools that can be used to analyse the integration of renewable energy. Initially 68 tools were considered, but 37 were included in the final analysis which was carried out in collaboration with the tool developers or recommended points of contact. The results in this paper provide the information necessary to identify a suitable energy tool for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy-systems under different objectives. It is evident from this paper that there is no energy tool that addresses all issues related to integrating renewable energy, but instead the ‘ideal’ energy tool is highly dependent on the specific objectives that must be fulfilled. The typical applications for the 37 tools reviewed (from analysing single-building systems to national energy-systems), combined with numerous other factors such as the energy-sectors considered, technologies accounted for, time parameters used, tool availability, and previous studies, will alter the perception of the ‘ideal’ energy tool. In conclusion, this paper provides the information necessary to direct the decision-maker towards a suitable energy tool for an analysis that must be completed.     

An interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for greenhouse gas mitigation in energy systems under uncertainty

In this study, an interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (IFSP) model is developed for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction management under uncertainties. In the IFSP model, methods of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) are introduced into an integer programming framework, such that the developed model can tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values and probability distributions over a multi-stage context. Moreover, it can reflect dynamic decisions for facility-capacity expansion during the planning horizon. The developed model is applied to a case of planning GHG-emission mitigation, demonstrating that IFSP is applicable to reflecting complexities of multi-uncertainty, dynamic and interactive energy management systems, and capable of addressing the problem of GHG-emission reduction. A number of scenarios corresponding to different GHG-emission mitigation levels are examined; the results suggest that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can be used for generating plans for energy resource/electricity allocation and capacity expansion and help decision makers identify desired GHG mitigation policies under various economic costs and environmental requirements.     

The role of district heating in future renewable energy systems

Based on the case of Denmark, this paper analyses the role of district heating in future Renewable Energy Systems. At present, the share of renewable energy is coming close to 20 per cent. From such point of departure, the paper defines a scenario framework in which the Danish system is converted to 100 per cent Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in the year 2060 including reductions in space heating demands by 75 per cent. By use of a detailed energy system analysis of the complete national energy system, the consequences in relation to fuel demand, CO₂ emissions and cost are calculated for various heating options, including district heating as well as individual heat pumps and micro CHPs (Combined Heat and Power). The study includes almost 25 per cent of the Danish building stock, namely those buildings which have individual gas or oil boilers today and could be substituted by district heating or a more efficient individual heat source. In such overall perspective, the best solution will be to combine a gradual expansion of district heating with individual heat pumps in the remaining houses. Such conclusion is valid in the present systems, which are mainly based on fossil fuels, as well as in a potential future system based 100 per cent on renewable energy.     

Reviewing optimisation criteria for energy systems analyses of renewable energy integration

The utilisation of fluctuating renewable energy sources is increasing world-wide; however, so is the concern about how to integrate these resources into the energy systems. The design of optimal energy resource mixes in climate change mitigation actions is a challenge faced in many places. This optimisation may be implemented according to economic objectives or with a focus on techno-operational aims and within these two main groupings, several different criteria may potentially be applied to the design process.In this article, a series of optimisation criteria are reviewed and subsequently applied to an energy system model of Western Denmark in an analysis of how to use heat pumps for the integration of wind power.The analyses demonstrate that the fact whether the system in question is modelled as operated in island mode or not has a large impact on the definition of the optimal wind power level. If energy savings and CO₂ emission reductions beyond the system boundary are not included in the analysis, then it is either not feasible to expand wind power to a high degree or it is conversely more feasible to install relocation technologies that can utilise any excess production. The analyses also demonstrate that different optimisation criteria render different optimal designs.     

Renewable energy strategies for sustainable development

This paper discusses the perspective of renewable energy (wind, solar, wave and biomass) in the making of strategies for a sustainable development. Such strategies typically involve three major technological changes: energy savings on the demand side, efficiency improvements in the energy production, and replacement of fossil fuels by various sources of renewable energy. Consequently, large-scale renewable energy implementation plans must include strategies for integrating renewable sources in coherent energy systems influenced by energy savings and efficiency measures. Based on the case of Denmark, this paper discusses the problems and perspectives of converting present energy systems into a 100% renewable energy system. The conclusion is that such development is possible. The necessary renewable energy sources are present, and if further technological improvements of the energy system are achieved the renewable energy system can be created. Especially technologies of converting the transportation sector and the introduction of flexible energy system technologies are crucial.     

Sustainable application of renewable sources in water pumping systems: Optimized energy system configuration

Eighteen years ago, in Portugal, the expenses in a water supply system associated with energy consumption were quite low. However, with the successive crises of energy fuel and the increase of the energy tariff as well as the water demand, the energy consumption is becoming a larger and a more important part of the total budget of water supply pumping systems. Also, new governmental policies, essentially in developed countries, are trying to implement renewable energies. For these reasons, a case-study in Portugal of a water pumping system was analysed to operate connected to solar and wind energy sources.     

A decision problem under uncertainty for nuclear power system development

Decision making under uncertainty is a further step in comparison with decision under risk in the more realistic approach to decision problems concerning, for instance, nuclear power system development. In this paper the theory developed is, however, based in a great measure on that of risk preference. The theory of decision making under uncertainty is applied to a nuclear power system NPS consisting of PHWRs and PWRs integrated with LMFBRs. Nine development alternatives of the system which evolves for a period of 40 years are considered. The fast reactor integration is accomplished beginning in year 15 with a variable time delay so that for every alternative, six final states are possible. An econometric model of the system offers the cost price of annual energy generated by the system at the end of the given time interval for every possible state of any alternative. Further, the complete ignorance case is considered, resulting from the principle of insufficient reason, and the risk preference theory is applied. Then the partial ignorance case is taken into account and finally it it shown how we can infer a plausible a priori optimal probability distribution to have an optimal decision characterized by an optimal selected development alternative, for which a minimum certain equivalent of cost price of annual energy is realized with an accepted level of risk and a determined value of risk averter.     

Alternative energy technologies in buildings: Stakeholder perceptions

This paper explores the factors affecting the use of alternative energy technologies (AETs) in buildings through the eyes of building project stakeholders. While there are many published lists of incentives and restrictions to using these technologies there are few reports of their impact in practical contexts. The paper reports on the results of a qualitative study of building project stakeholders in the UK—their experience of AETs, the factors that influence assessments and their views on how to improve the chances of using AETs in future projects. The large amount of variation in the importance of drivers and barriers to using AETs between projects is revealed. Despite this variation the emphasis for assessment methods is on financial concerns, largely ignoring more qualitative concerns. This lack of suitable assessment methodologies along with a lack of education, motivation and case-study information in the building industry are restricting the use of AETs in UK building projects.     

Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy systems—The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050

This paper presents the methodology and results of the overall energy system analysis of a 100% renewable energy system. The input for the systems is the result of a project of the Danish Association of Engineers, in which 1600 participants during more than 40 seminars discussed and designed a model for the future energy system of Denmark. The energy system analysis methodology includes hour by hour computer simulations leading to the design of flexible energy systems with the ability to balance the electricity supply and demand. The results are detailed system designs and energy balances for two energy target years: year 2050 with 100% renewable energy from biomass and combinations of wind, wave and solar power; and year 2030 with 50% renewable energy, emphasising the first important steps on the way. The conclusion is that a 100% renewable energy supply based on domestic resources is physically possible, and that the first step towards 2030 is feasible to Danish society. However, Denmark will have to consider to which degree the country shall rely mostly on biomass resources, which will involve the reorganisation of the present use of farming areas, or mostly on wind power, which will involve a large share of hydrogen or similar energy carriers leading to certain inefficiencies in the system design.     

Hydrogen-based systems for integration of renewable energy in power systems: Achievements and perspectives

This paper is a critical review of selected real-world energy storage systems based on hydrogen, ranging from lab-scale systems to full-scale systems in continuous operation. 15 projects are presented with a critical overview of their concept and performance. A review of research related to power electronics, control systems and energy management strategies has been added to integrate the findings with outlooks usually described in separate literature. Results show that while hydrogen energy storage systems are technically feasible, they still require large cost reductions to become commercially attractive. A challenge that affects the cost per unit of energy is the low energy efficiency of some of the system components in real-world operating conditions. Due to losses in the conversion and storage processes, hydrogen energy storage systems lose anywhere between 60 and 85% of the incoming electricity with current technology. However, there are currently very few alternatives for long-term storage of electricity in power systems so the interest in hydrogen for this application remains high from both industry and academia. Additionally, it is expected that the share of intermittent renewable energy in power systems will increase in the coming decades. This could lead to technology development and cost reductions within hydrogen technology if this technology is needed to store excess renewable energy. Results from the reviewed projects indicate that the best solution from a technical viewpoint consists in hybrid systems where hydrogen is combined with short-term energy storage technologies like batteries and supercapacitors. In these hybrid systems the advantages with each storage technology can be fully exploited to maximize efficiency if the system is specifically tailored to the given situation. The disadvantage is that this will obviously increase the complexity and total cost of the energy system. Therefore, control systems and energy management strategies are important factors to achieve optimal results, both in terms of efficiency and cost. By considering the reviewed projects and evaluating operation modes and control systems, new hybrid energy systems could be tailored to fit each situation and to reduce energy losses.     

An integrated systematic analysis of uncertainties in UK energy transition pathways

Policy goals to transition national energy systems to meet decarbonisation and security goals must contend with multiple overlapping uncertainties. These uncertainties are pervasive through the complex nature of the system, the long term consequences of decisions, and in the models and analytical approaches used. These greatly increase the challenges of informing robust decision making. Energy system studies have tended not to address uncertainty in a systematic manner, relying on simple scenario or sensitivity analysis. This paper utilises an innovative UK energy system model, ESME, which characterises multiple uncertainties via probability distributions and propagates these uncertainties to explore trade-offs in cost effective energy transition scenarios. A linked global sensitivity analysis is used to explore the uncertainties that have most impact on the transition. The analysis highlights the strong impact of uncertainty on delivering the required emission reductions, and the need for an appropriate carbon price. Biomass availability, gas prices and nuclear capital costs emerge as critical uncertainties in delivering emission reductions. Further developing this approach for policy requires an iterative process to ensure a complete understanding and representation of different uncertainties in meeting mitigation policy objectives.     

Overview of US patents for energy management of renewable energy systems with hydrogen

The problems of energy shortage, severe pollution, and global warming are becoming increasingly severe. Renewable energy systems with hydrogen have been widely used. In recent years, much literature has described the energy management of renewable energy systems with hydrogen in a comprehensive way. However, most of them are proposed and discussed from an academic point of view. There are likewise several different approaches and ideas in the patents that address the energy management of hydrogen renewable energy systems. Moreover, most patents are oriented toward industrial applications and still need to be reviewed and analyzed. To fill this gap, this paper reviews relevant US patents to find potential and industrial hydrogen applications and energy management strategies in renewable energy systems. The work presented in this paper will provide solutions and guidance in solving energy management problems in renewable energy systems.     

An interval-parameter minimax regret programming approach for power management systems planning under uncertainty

In this study, an interval-parameter minimax regret programming (IMRP) method is developed for supporting the power management systems planning under uncertainty. This method incorporates techniques of interval linear programming (ILP) and minimax regret programming (MRP) within a general optimization framework. The developed IMRP could deal with multiple policy scenarios associated with different costs and risk levels without making any assumptions. It can analyze various economic consequences for all of the possible scenarios through minimizing the maximum cost regret values. The IMRP approach can successfully reduce the worst regrets incurred under the pre-regulated targets. Moreover, it can deal with uncertainties and complexities expressed as interval numbers. A case study of power management systems planning is then presented for demonstrating applicability of the developed approach. The results indicate that many decision alternatives are generated based on the interval solutions which can help decision makers identify the desired system designs with minimized economic cost loss and system-failure risk under uncertainty. The trade-off between system regret and security-failure risk can be handled effectively through this method. And the generated solutions can also provide multiple electric power generation patterns and capacity expansion schemes under the optimal strategy obtained through the developed IMRP method. It is indicated that the proposed method is efficient to provide the decision makers with available plans in actual operation of power management systems.     

Decision making under risk in the case of nuclear power system development

Decision making under risk offers promise of a new and valuable procedure for social decisions. In this paper the theory of risk perference is adopted and it is shown that the interesting type of risk attitude is constant risk aversion. the theory is applied to a nuclear power system consisting of PHWRs and PWRs integrated with LMFBRs. Nine development alternatives for the system which evolves over a time period of 40 years are considered. the fast reactor integration is accomplished beginning in year 15 with a variable time delay so that for every alternative, six final states are possible. an econometric model of the system offers the cost price of annual energy generated by the system at the end of a given time interval for every possible state of any aiternative. Further, every state of an alternative is associated with a known probability and the concept of lottery is introduced. Finally, it is shown how to quantify the attitude toward risk and how to select among lotteries. In this way it was possible to obtaine the optimal development alternatives of the nuclear system in three cases: risk-perference, risk-indifference and risk-aversion. the solution in the last case is discussed in detail.     

Renewable energy projects: structuring a multi-criteria group decision-making framework

This paper describes an applicable group decision-making framework for assisting with multi-criteria analysis in renewable energy projects, utilizing the PROMETHEE II outranking method. The proposed framework is tested in a case study concerning the exploitation of a geothermal resource, located in the island of Chios, Greece. The presented structure provides a serial, decomposed agenda and enhances overall process transparency. Additional, innovatory elements are the incorporation of differing levels of resource exploitation within the decision framework and the direct determination of the PROMETHEE preference thresholds. The developed methodology provides a user-friendly approach, promotes the synergy between different actors, and could pave a way towards consensus.     

区域可再生能源规划基本框架研究

可再生能源发展规划是保障能源安全和抑制气候变化的重要举措之一。目前区域可再生能源规划在体系上存在国家规划与区域规划之间的不衔接、区域规划的可实施性差、规划编制与国家实际情况不一致等问题。为了解决上述问题,本文提出了一个区域可再生能源规划基本框架模型,给出了规划的原理、内容和基本功能,为区域可再生能源规划提供了基本思路。