Transboundary Water Resources Allocation under Various Parametric Conditions: The Case of the Euphrates & Tigris River Basin

The literature on transboundary water resources allocation modelling is still short on encompassing and analyzing complex geographic multiparty nature of basins. This study elaborates the Inter Temporal Euphrates and Tigris River Basin Model (ITETRBM), which is a linear programming based transboundary water resources allocation model maximizing net economic benefit from allocation of scarce water resources to energy generation, urban, and agricultural uses. The elaborations can be categorized in two directions: First, agricultural and urban demand nodes are spatially identified with their relative elevations and distances to water resources supplies (dams, reservoirs, and lakes). Digital elevation model (DEM) database are intensely processed in geographic information system (GIS) environment. Second, the agricultural irrigable lands are restructured into a pixel based decision making units (DMUs) in order to be able to see the spatial extent of optimally irrigated land, and then optimization program is converted from linear programming (LP) to a mixed integer programming (MIP). The model applications are designed to cover a series of sensitivity analyses encompassing the various transboundary management, energy and agricultural use value, and transportation cost scenarios over the optimal uses of the Euphrates and Tigris Basin (ETRB) resources. The model results are visually presented via GIS in order to show the transboundary upstream and downstream spatial impacts of these selected parameters. The findings are i) system parameters significantly alter the spatial extent of water resources allocation in the ETRB, and ii) the magnitudes of the parameters also explains the tradeoffs between agriculture and energy sectors as much as upstream and downstream water uses of countries.     

"情景共享模型"在淮河干流水量分配中的应用

为适应水资源管理理念和管理方法的转变,提出情景共享模型及其建模思想和方法,对淮河干流及其主要支流2010规划水平年的水资源分配情景进行了模拟。结果证明该模型性能良好,效率较高,可为不同利益相关者共同参与水资源管理决策提供理想的分析工具。     

Decision Support Systems for Sustainable Management of Water Resources: 2. Case Studies

ABSTRACT

The new ethic of sustainable development extends the main principles of water resources management. Computer-based decision support systems are explored in order to identify their role in the implementation of these principles into water resource management practice. The first part of this research (see the previous article in this issue) has demonstrated that sustainable development is a global concept that needs to be made reality in any component of every decision support system to be developed for successful management of water resources. This article presents four successful case studies of decision support systems (DSSs) for sustainable management of water resources. Development of a DSS for sustainable water resource management is seen as a process, and while the issues covered in these four examples are the priorities in their respective domains, it is certain that new issues will emerge in different fields of application. So, what is presented here is thus a snapshot of current best efforts     

Developing Strategies for Agricultural Water Management of Large Irrigation and Drainage Networks with Fuzzy MCDM

Sustainable water resources management aims at increasing the efficient use of water and achieving food security. This work proposes a generalized novel spatial fuzzy strategic planning (SFSP) in combination with multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) and a conceptual agricultural water use model for determining sustainable agricultural water management strategies. The proposed framework is applied to an irrigation and drainage network in Iran, which constitutes a large-scale water resource system. A spatial strength, weakness, opportunity, and threat (SWOT) analysis of internal and external factors related to agricultural water management is applied in this work. Possible water management strategies were ranked with the MCDM approach that combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Fuzzy technique for order-preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). The AHP estimates the criteria weights and the TOPSIS model prioritizes the agricultural water management strategies. The results of SWOT analysis show that the final scores of the internal and external factors are equal to 2.9 and 2.73, respectively. Accordingly, the most attractive strategic type is a SO (aggressive) strategy, and a combination of structural and non-structural strategies (SO, ST, and WO strategies) are the top-ranked ones. Proposed strategies for water supply and demand management are the development and rehabilitation of the physical structure of water resources system of irrigation network, improvement of operation management and maintenance of water resources system, wastewater management, and inter-basin water transfer within the irrigation network. The results indicate that the total annual volume of agricultural water under normal conditions is about 1.8 billion cubic meters, of which about 1707 million cubic meters (95%) issue from surface water sources and 90 million cubic meters (5%) from groundwater sources. The proposed model and the calculated results provide viable and effective solutions for the implementation of sustainable management of water resources and consumption in large-scale water resources systems.

     

GIS技术支持下的区域水资源管理

地理信息系统（GIS）就其强大的空间数据处理能力，为区域水资源管理提供了一个新颖、高效的工具。通过赵巷镇水资源管理信息系统的应用实例，阐明了基于GIS的区域水资源管理信息系统的构建过程，分析了两者结合应用的可行性和优越性，并讨论了这种方法在区域水资源系统模拟、辅助决策支持等方面的广泛应用前景。     

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.     

抚顺市56年降水演变过程规律

降水是一个地区甚至是国家农田水利工程规划与设计等工作的基础资料,是经济社会发展的基础性自然资源和战略性经济资源,是水资源开发、利用与管理、环境与生态规划等工作的重要根据,对国民经济发展与决策具有十分重要的作用,特别是对预评旱、涝、洪灾发生规律,对防灾减灾提供信息祈祷关键性作用。     

Drought Management Plans in the European Union. The Case of Spain

Water is a strategic resource for the economic, social and environmental development. However, water scarcity and droughts are current challenges to this growth, as it is reflected in European Union (EU) water policies, and in national and regional growing initiatives. In addition, these water related issues could worsen by climate change effects, adding pressure to already water stressed areas. This paper presents a general overview of drought management in the European Union, reviews scientific and technical advances, the status of implementation of policy tools and focuses on drought management plans. It analyses the specific case of Spain, a country characterised by presenting a high irregularity in temporal and spatial distribution of water resources and numerous areas affected by water scarcity and droughts. Details are presented on the National Drought Indicator System and drought management plans approved in 2007 in Spain, which represent strategic tools with positive results in drought warning and impact mitigation respectively.     

Synthesis of System Dynamics Tools for Holistic Conceptualization of Water Resources Problems

Out-of-context analysis of water resources systems can result in unsustainable management strategies. To address this problem, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems driving a system??s overall behavior. System dynamics, a method for operationalizing systems thinking, facilitates holistic understanding of water resources systems, and strategic decision making. The approach also facilitates participatory modeling, and analysis of the system??s behavioral trends, essential to sustainable management. The field of water resources has not utilized the full capacity of system dynamics in the thinking phase of integrated water resources studies. We advocate that the thinking phase of modeling applications is critically important, and that system dynamics offers unique qualitative tools that improve understanding of complex problems. Thus, this paper describes the utility of system dynamics for holistic water resources planning and management by illustrating the fundamentals of the approach. Using tangible examples, we provide an overview of Causal Loop and Stock and Flow Diagrams, reference modes of dynamic behavior, and system archetypes to demonstrate the use of these qualitative tools for holistic conceptualization of water resources problems. Finally, we present a summary of the potential benefits as well as caveats of qualitative system dynamics for water resources decision making.     

Easier Said Than Done? The Establishment of Baseline Groundwater Conditions for the Implementation of the Water Framework Directive in Spain

The European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires EU countries to achieve good status of all their waters by 2015. This should be achieved through the implementation of river basin management plans (RBMPs), which in turn are based on water resources baseline data. While it is too soon to assess the WFD effectiveness, the planning process has contributed to identify possible pitfalls of the WFD design and has provided an opportunity to enhance the knowledge of European water resources. Groundwater plays a strategic role in Spain’s economy and also in the maintenance of its aquatic ecosystems, making that country an excellent testing ground for getting an insight into the definition of baseline groundwater under the WFD mandate. This paper presents the results of compiling the information produced for the RBMPs to attain an overall picture at a national scale. In doing so, it examines some of the methodological and technical choices involved in the definition of a baseline for groundwater, assessing their practical consequences on groundwater management. This paper argues that having baseline figures for the RBMPs required compromises or shortcuts to be taken. Undoubtedly, the process leading to the first WFD Plans has been an extremely enriching learning process, but it leaves questions unanswered. The periodic (6 year) RBMP revision should become an opportunity to revisit and better tune the baseline conditions established during this first planning cycle.     

Operationalising uncertainty in data and models for integrated water resources management.

Key sources of uncertainty of importance for water resources management are (1) uncertainty in data; (2) uncertainty related to hydrological models (parameter values, model technique, model structure); and (3) uncertainty related to the context and the framing of the decision-making process. The European funded project 'Harmonised techniques and representative river basin data for assessment and use of uncertainty information in integrated water management (HarmoniRiB)' has resulted in a range of tools and methods to assess such uncertainties, focusing on items (1) and (2). The project also engaged in a number of discussions surrounding uncertainty and risk assessment in support of decision-making in water management. Based on the project's results and experiences, and on the subsequent discussions a number of conclusions can be drawn on the future needs for successful adoption of uncertainty analysis in decision support. These conclusions range from additional scientific research on specific uncertainties, dedicated guidelines for operational use to capacity building at all levels. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on these conclusions and anchoring them in the broad objective of making uncertainty and risk assessment an essential and natural part in future decision-making processes.     

A Sustainable Decision Support Framework for Urban Water Management

This paper develops a decision support framework that assists managers in the urban water industry to analyse a mix of water service options, at the whole-of-city scale. The decision support framework moves decision-making in urban water systems from traditional command and control approaches that tend to focus on an outcome at a point in time to a more sustainable, inclusive and dynamic decision-making process driven by social learning and engagement. While available models and evaluation techniques provide valuable input to decision-making, the complex nature of urban water systems requires more than just social and economic criteria to be considered as part of decision support frameworks. The authors believe that current decision support frameworks need to be presented in a way that incorporates adaptive management and integrated urban water management strengths at the strategic and operational level. The inclusion of social learning and engagement is necessary to achieving this end.     

基于ASP.NET与Web GIS的城市水资源管理决策支持系统开发及应用

开发基于Web框架的水资源管理决策支持系统是实现水利现代化建设的一个重要措施。采用ASP.NET作为开发语言，以MapXtreme为Web GIS平台，开发了B／S模式的城市水资源管理决策支持系统。该系统提供对各类水资源信息进行整理、统计、分析评价、预测和预警等功能。系统在Intranet环境下运行，界面友好，操作方便，具有很强的灵活性和可移植性。     

引水工程运行管理决策支持系统设计与实现

引水工程是我国水资源战略调配的重要举措,在我国水资源调配已经或将发挥重要作用,引水工程的信息化建设将促进和提高引水工程运行管理水平。在分析引水工程特点及其运行管理需求的基础上,应用先进的信息采集、通信网络、空间和计算机控制处理技术,对引水工程运行调度管理决策支持系统进行分析设计,以吉林省引嫩入白引水工程为例,进行应用实践。通过应用表明,该系统运行稳定,界面友好,提升了引水工程水利信息化水平,充分发挥了引水工程的效益。     

Model-Supported Impact Assessment for the Water Sector in Central Germany Under Climate Change—A Case Study

Climate change challenges water managers and researchers to find sustainable management solutions, in order to avoid undesirable impacts on water resources, environment and water-dependent sectors. Needed are projections into the future for the main driving forces, the resulting pressures on water resources, and quantification of the impacts. Modeling studies can play an important role in investigating, quantifying, and communicating possible impacts of climate change, with account of uncertainty of the results. However, climate change related impacts and a need for adaptation still play a minor role in current river basin management plans that have to comply e.g. with the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). One important reason is that climate impact assessment is generally done in research institutes, while management plans are designed by practitioners working in national and regional environmental agencies and water supply companies. Knowledge transfer from science to practice and visa versa is often missing. In the present study, we propose a methodology and a case study for model-supported decision making in the water sector applicable to a participatory water resources planning process. The methodology is applied in a case study investigating climate change impacts on water resources. The case study area is the German State of Saxony-Anhalt, where the task was to develop a climate change impact assessment including possible adaptation measures as basis for a federal adaptation directive.     

Multi-criteria Decision Analysis: A Strategic Planning Tool for Water Loss Management

Water utilities particularly in the developing countries continue to operate with considerable inefficiencies in terms of water and revenue losses. With increasing water demand and scarcity, utilities require effective strategies for optimum use of available water resources. Diverse water loss reduction options exist. Deciding on which option to choose amidst conflicting multiple criteria and different interests of stakeholders is a challenging task. In this paper, an integrated multi-criteria decision-aiding framework for strategic planning of water loss management is presented. The PROMETHEE II method was applied within the framework in prioritizing water loss reduction options for Kampala city. A strategic plan that combines selective mains and service lines replacement and pressure management as priorities is the best compromise based on preferences of the decision makers and seven evaluation criteria characterized by financial-economic, environmental, public health, technical and social impacts. The results show that the most preferred options are those that enhance water supply reliability, public health and water conservation measures. This study demonstrates how decision theory coupled with operational research techniques could be applied in practice to solve complex water management and planning problems.     

大连市水资源利用与宏观经济协调发展规划多目标群决策模型与方法

以大连市水资源开发利用与宏观经济协调可持续发展为研究背景，建立了大连市宏观经济水资源发展规划多目标群决策模型。根据该决策模型具有的多层次多目标多决策者的特点，结合陈守煜建立的工程模糊集理论与切比雪夫决策方法，提出了模糊切比雪夫多目标群决策方法。结果表明，该决策模型与模糊切比雪夫多目标群决策方法是有效和可行的。     

黄河水资源规划决策支持系统研究

黄河水资源规划决策支持系统是一个包括人机交互界面，数据库管理系统和模型库管理系统的决策辅助工具，其中模型库中包括预测模型，优化模型，模拟模型和评价模型，分别起着需水量预测，方案筛选，模拟计算及方案评价的作用。该系统具有人机交互、信息支持模型辅助决策以及水资源利用方案的生成，计算和评价等功能，并突出实用性，灵活性和可操作性。     

One View of the Future

Abstract

Floods, droughts, water scarcity, and water contamination are some among many water problems that are present today and will be even more noticeable in the future. In the past, many different tools have been used for simulation and optimization of complex water resources systems in order to provide an improved basis for decision making. The continuing evolution of information technology (hardware and software) creates a good environment for the transition to new tools. Application of the systems approach to water resources planning, management, and operations has been established as one of the most important advances made in the field of water resources engineering. Based on the lessons learned, this contribution provides my personal view on the tools to be used in the future. Two paradigm shifts are discussed. The first one is focusing on the complexity of the water resources domain and the complexity of the modelling tools in an environment characterised by continuous rapid technological development. The second one deals with water-related data availability and natural variability of domain variables in time and space affecting the uncertainty of water resources decision making.