BT模式投资城市基础设施项目的风险评价

BT模式是解决城市基础建设资金不足的一种有效方式,但同时这一模式中蕴含中许多风险,如何对这些风险进行评价和管理是BT项目投资方最为关心的。本文从BT项目投资方的角度,系统研究了城市基础设施项目投资风险的评价指标体系,利用模糊集理论和模糊区间值理论构建了风险评价模型,并利用在建的武汉市杨泗港长江大桥工程对其投资风险进行了实证分析,表明该评价模型可以有效识别风险和定量衡量风险,为BT项目投资方的风险管理提供指导。     

Plans, timetables, and delays: progress with railway reform in transition economies

This paper describes the extent of railway reform in a selection of representative transition economies and discusses some of the factors that will influence the success of the reforms in the future. Railways in the European Union’s area of influence, such as those in Poland and Romania, which are financially weak and losing market share to road transport, have advanced on the railway reform path more than those in Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine. The latter are financially strong and enjoy a dominant share of the freight market. Railway reform agendas are ambitious on paper but suffer from implementation delays. The combination of favourable financial conditions, weak inter-modal competition, and politicised decision-making slows down reform. The success of railway reform depends not only on building institutional capacity to make the railways market-oriented and adequately regulated, but also on promoting wider reforms in the economy, such as enterprise restructuring and financial sector development.     

Towards sustainable infrastructure development through integrated contracts: Experiences with inclusiveness in Dutch infrastructure projects

Current complex society necessitates finding inclusive arrangements for delivering sustainable road infrastructure integrating design, construction and maintenance stages of the project lifecycle. In this article we investigate whether linking stages by integrated contracts can lead to more sustainable road infrastructure development by assessing public and private experiences with inclusiveness of integrated Dutch Design-Build-Finance-Maintain (DBFM) projects throughout the procurement, design, construction and maintenance and operation stages. Through semi-structured interviews and document analysis, we find that public and private parties experience that inclusiveness is increased by DBFM contracts, although differences between investigated actor, scope and time dimensions of inclusiveness exist. We conclude that integrated contracts can lead to more sustainable infrastructure development because of the lifecycle optimization incentives provided by the linked contract stages of design, construction and maintenance. Based on our findings we recommend to pursue three avenues towards more sustainable infrastructure development: green procurement, strategic asset management and relational contracting.     

Reconnecting the disconnected: The politics of infrastructure in the in-between city

This paper explores the politics of infrastructure in the evolving socio-spatial landscape of what we call the “in-between city,” that part of the urban region that is perceived as not quite traditional city and not quite traditional suburb (Sieverts, 2003). We posit that this new urban landscape which surrounds urban regions in many parts of the world is the remarkable new urban morphology where a large part of metropolitan populations live, work and play. While much attention has been on the winning economic clusters of the world economy and the devastated industrial structures of the loser regions, little light has been shed on the urban zones in-between. This paper deals specifically with these zones from the perspective of accessibility issues around urban infrastructures, in particular transportation. It is argued that only a combined understanding of scaled and topological approaches allow us to capture the complexities of the politics of urban infrastructures in the in-between city. Conceptually, we outline the definitive characteristics of this new landscape with a particular view towards urban Canada. Applying these concepts to a North American city, Toronto, Canada, we look specifically at the 85 sq km around York University, an area that straddles the line between the traditional suburb and the inner city.     

The role of efficiency estimates in UK regulatory price reviews: The case of rail

This paper reviews the methods that have been applied to assess the efficiency performance of Britain's rail infrastructure provider since privatisation. The paper shows that a wide range of approaches has been adopted by the ORR. However, we argue that, in contrast to the other regulated sectors, the benchmarking methods developed in rail have not been sufficiently robust to restrain costs to efficient levels. We suggest that the main problem stems from a lack of external comparators based on hard data, such as international benchmarks or comparisons with previous experience under British Rail. Although, during the 2003 Interim Review, the ORR obtained an external perspective through bottom-up consultant reviews, we suggest that such studies are not an adequate substitute for quantitative analysis. Looking forward we suggest that more work needs to be done to obtain a better understanding of the reasons for recent cost increases, and also to develop robust international benchmarks against which to judge Network Rail's relative efficiency position. International comparisons are not straightforward, of course, and it is therefore important to start now, rather than wait until the next review of Network Rail's finances, by which time it will be too late.     

The impact of Chinese economic reforms upon the construction industry

The increase in economic activity in China has generated and will continue to generate a heavy demand upon the construction sector. The author studies the impact of the economic reforms upon the construction industry and the consequences of fulfilling an overheating demand. The new types of construction companies and ventures in China are identified and analysed. Both local and international private sector construction companies are needed to tackle the burgeoning demand. L'essor des activites economiques en Chine a suscite et continuera a susciter une forte demande dans le secteur du batiment. L'auteur etudie l'impact des reformes economiques dans le secteur du batiment et les consequences d'une reponse a une demande animee. Les nouveaux types de societe de construction et d'association en participation en Chine sont identifies et analyses. Des societes de construction du secteur prive, tant locales qu'internationales, sont necessaires pour repondre a une demande bourgeonnante.     

Urban challenges: the formal and informal economies in mega-cities

There is a sense in which the formal and informal economies in mega-cities are taken for granted. The bulk of the literature focuses on the characteristics and problems of the latter. It is crucial, however, that they should not be examined and analysed as separate entities. Rather, it should be acknowledged at the outset that the activities that are normally considered part of the informal economy are often in one way or another linked to the activities in the formal economy. Other reasons for stressing the interconnectedness of the informal and formal sectors in cities are outlined. Perhaps, the key to policy development is to recognise that both sectors incorporate creativity, entrepreneurial flair, and a general desire to harness human capital in ways that maximises its potential.     

土基压实的影响与压实效果的提高

通过对土基工程的重要性、压实度与压实功对路面设计影响的分析,提出了如何提高土基压实效果的方法。     

The role of scale economies in determining firm size in modern economies

Some three to four decades ago, it was generally accepted in economic literature that the average size of firms would continue to increase with progressive economic development. This would be the result of an ever increasing importance of exploitation of scale economies. However, since that time, small-scale self-employment rates have increased in many industrialized countries. This raises the question to what extent scale economies are still important in modern economies. Using data for 23 OECD countries over the period 1972–2008, we test the importance of scale economies in determining average firm size as proxied by the employment to self-employment ratio. We control for several other determinants of firm size, including the rate of urbanization. We also allow the relation to differ across levels of economic development. Our results suggest that notwithstanding the rise of small-scale self-employment observed in many countries over the last few decades, economies of scale and scope continue to play an important role in advanced economies.     

Underground landscape: The urbanism and infrastructure of Toronto’s downtown pedestrian network

Beneath the surface of the streets of Toronto lies a sprawling labyrinth that serves over 100,000 people every day and countless tourists and visitors. One of the city’s most under-valued urban spaces, Toronto’s underground is remarkably the largest underground shopping complex in the world according to the Guinness Book of World Records with more than 30 km of shopping tunnels and retail nodes. Since the 1970s, this underground system has grown and multiplied beneath the surface of the city with relatively little intervention from city planners. This article discusses the development pattern of the underground as a network and the future it holds as an important urban infrastructure.     

Tending the infrastructure commons: Ensuring the sustainability of our vital public systems

It is by now well recognized that civil infrastructure systems are essential in providing the range of services generally considered necessary to support a nation's economic well-being and quality of life. Consequently, it is of the utmost importance to government, business, and the general populace that these services are sustained over the long term by periodic replenishment of the physical systems that deliver them. This has proven challenging for several reasons. First, civil infrastructures do not all lie within the public domain. Second, infrastructures are complex systems that are vulnerable to failures or service degradations in other systems because of their interconnected and interdependent natures. Third, despite the obvious importance of reliable and resilient systems to our collective social, economic, and political well-being, it has been difficult to fund the necessary maintenance and capital improvements. Deciding what levels of reliability should be provided and who should pay for it are not simple questions to be addressed solely by service providers, customers, or government regulators. This paper will present the concept of an infrastructure commons and recommend some initial actions that the federal government could take to ensure that the national ‘public good’ aspect of civil is preserved and enhanced. These actions include the beginning of an informed and serious dialogue between the public and private sectors, building coalitions for action among stakeholders in the governance process, and exploring alternative mechanisms for ensuring dependable and sustainable resource streams.     

2014，风往哪里吹？

2014年是贯彻落实党的十八大和十八届二中、三中全会精神的重要一年,是全面深化改革的开局之年,也是完成“十二五”规划目标任务的关键一年。随着经济稳步回升和基础建设的好转,新型城镇化、铁路改革、城乡公路、能源建设等基建项目投资回暖信号频现,2014年有望成为工程机械复苏季。     

基础设施建设地方政府融资博弈行为形成机理研究

对现有基础设施建设地方政府申请项目专项资金的融资行为进行分析,在制度层面深入剖析基础设施建设地方政府融资博弈行为产生的制度基础。运用博弈论等相关理论知识,建立基础设施建设政府融资行为博弈模型,对基础设施建设过程中产生的地方政府虚报项目争取财政资金的这一政府融资博弈行为的形成机理进行深入剖析,证明在基础设施建设领域公地悲剧现象的存在,并运用元胞自动机仿真进一步验证,指出基础设施单纯依靠政府的力量是不现实的也是低效的,并提出改善这一现象的对策建议。     

The moderating role of governance environment on the relationship between risk allocation and private investment in PPP markets: Evidence from developing countries

PPPs have become a popular way to supply infrastructure around the world. However, compared with developed countries, most developing countries have failed to attract private investment over the past years. Risk allocation and governance environment (e.g., the extent of public participation, the level of political stability, the quality of public services, the ability of regulations, abiding the law, and the extent of corruption) may be important factors. To test the hypotheses, using about 4560 PPP projects in 138 developing countries from 2002 to 2015, this paper applies the Tobit regression model to investigate the interaction effect of governance environment and risk assumed by private partners on private investment. Results indicate that private partners assume that less risk can attract more private investment, and that a higher level of governance (control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and rule of law) reduces the negative influence of risk assumed by private partners on private investments.     

中国城镇市政设施投融资现状研究

从市政设施含义着手，探讨了我国城镇市政设施投融资改革历程，明晰了各类市政设施归属，指明其民营化的对象，总结了我国推进市政设施民营化的成功实践，并提出了一些改革建议与相关措施。     

民营企业发展基础设施项目的投资决策模型

在中国的两轮基础设施投资浪潮中,参与基础设施建设的投资主体分别是外商投资者和国有企业。通过详尽的文献阅读,归纳总结经济市场中另一重要主体——民营企业发展基础设施项目的优势、劣势、机会和威胁,以及具体的投资策略建议;在此基础上采用了重要性和符合度二维评价指标,建立了一个投资决策模型;最后通过一个简化案例来介绍该模型的应用方法,分析了民营企业在该领域的发展前景。     

Market and regulatory factors influencing smart-grid investment in Europe: Evidence from pilot projects and implications for reform

Electricity distribution system operators (DSOs) are expected to invest heavily in system innovation in the form of smart grids (SG) in order to help achieve energy policy goals. In this context, regulatory reforms to spur DSOs investments are considered a policy priority. Based on a review of the European regulatory status and using a dataset of 459 innovative SG projects, this study focuses on market and regulatory factors and performs a series of statistical tests to investigate how the different factor levels affecting SG investments in Europe. The results show that (1) lower market concentration in the electricity distribution sector (2) the use of incentive-based regulatory schemes; and (3) the adoption of innovation-stimulus mechanisms are key enablers of SG investments.     

Measuring and comparing the distribution of decision-making power in regulatory arrangements of the telecommunication sector in Latin America

In this paper, I measure and compare the distribution of decision-making power in regulatory arrangements in the telecommunication sectors of four Latin American countries. In particular, I measure the coordination of the decision-making process and the concentration of regulatory influence. Additionally, I measure the relative influence of each actor involved in the regulatory arrangement. To perform these measurements, I introduce, refine and apply a recently developed methodology. I found that there are significant differences across countries and across types of regulation. Furthermore, I found that the sector regulator is not necessarily the most important actor in every country.