Global challenges in energy

Environmental and security concerns are stimulating global interest in hydrogen power, renewable energy, and advanced transportation technologies, but no significant movement away from oil and a carbon-based world economy is expected soon. Over the longer-term, however, a transition from fossil fuels to a non-carbon-based economy will likely occur, affecting the type of environment future generations may encounter. Key challenges will face the world's energy industry over the next few decades to ensure a smooth transition—challenges which will require government and industry solutions beginning as early as today. This paper identifies four critical challenges in energy and the choices which will have to be made on how best to confront growing pollution caused by fossil fuels and how to facilitate an eventual revolutionary-like transition to a non-carbon-based global economy.     

Global energy prospects in the 21st century: a battery-based society

Current energy needs are nearly totally dependent on fossil fuels. This is causing global warming and exhaustion of resources; it is important to switch to more efficient and effective energy use. These circumstances are expanding the role of secondary batteries. Non-fossil fuels such as photovoltaic cells and wind energy are unstable, but combining them with secondary batteries improves their stability as electric power sources. If electrical load leveling between day and night can be achieved by storing electric power, it will be possible to achieve a high capacity utilization rate for generating facilities that have high generating efficiency and produce little CO₂. Depending on the generating mix, the practicalization of electric vehicles will serve not only to alleviate air pollution, but also to limit CO₂ emissions. There are hopes for the development of large-capacity lithium secondary batteries with long cycle life, high energy density, high power density, and high energy efficiency.     

Global energy use: Decoupling or convergence?

We examine the key factors driving change in energy use globally over the past four decades. We test for both strong decoupling where economic growth has less effect on energy use as income increases, and weak decoupling where energy use declines overtime in richer countries, ceteris paribus. Our econometric approach is robust to the presence of unit roots, unobserved time effects, and spatial effects. Our key findings are that the growth of per capita energy use has been primarily driven by economic growth, convergence in energy intensity, and weak decoupling. There is no sign of strong decoupling.     

Global aspects of sunlight as a major energy source

To achieve and sustain a decent livable world for all is a central goal for human society. While an abundant supply of energy is not in itself a determinant of such a world, it is nevertheless essential. A careful inquiry suggests that sunlight could eventually be the primary and even exclusive source of heat, electricity and synthetic fuels for the entire world, continuously and eternally on a scale (upwards of 100 TW) generally regarded possible only with fusion or with fission via the fast breeder. This could be achieved through a global network of solar conversion facilities coupled with appropriate energy transport and storage systems, and appears to be possible within acceptable constraints on energy payback time, materials and water resources, capital investment, and available suitable land.     

World energy models—a survey and critique

Considerable intellectual effort has been devoted to the development of energy supply-demand models, some of which have been influential in energy policy making. In this paper the author presents a comparative survey of nine world energy models and assesses how far differences in conclusions depend on differences in assumptions and methodologies. The main purpose is to consider how valuable energy modelling exercises are. It is argued that many studies are misconceived in that they fail to pay sufficient attention to economic factors and to the needs of the policy maker.     

Global energy and electricity futures

A global energy perspective for the middle of the next century is presented. The premises for the projections are described. Included are assumptions as to how much conservation the world might achieve. Projections are then made for the year 2060, assuming that the global fossil fuel mix of coal, oil, and gas will not have changed substantially and that the renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass will have become commercially successful and be utilized at their maximum reasonable contribution. As a result of these projections, at least a doubling of annual carbon emissions globally is predicted. Steps that could be taken to reduce carbon emissions are discussed     

Global climate change: Implications for thailand's energy systems

An energy/environmental model has been developed to estimate Thailand's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions through the end of the National Tenth Plan (year 2011). The projection suggests that fossil-fuel consumption, not deforestation, will be the major source of emissions during 1990–2011. By the year 2011, energy-efficiency improvement measures could bring about a 14% reduction of CO₂ emissions. Any reduction beyond this level would require switches of fuel mix in the power, transportation, and industrial sectors. Fuel shifts in the power sector alone could cut emissions by up to 20% to 30%. In the longer run, Thailand should consider adopting unconventional sources of energy, as well as make use of reforestation policy to absorb future CO₂ emissions.     

Global energy efficiency improvement in the long term: a demand- and supply-side perspective

This study assessed technical potentials for energy efficiency improvement in 2050 in a global context. The reference scenario is based on the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency 2007 edition and assumptions regarding gross domestic product developments after 2030. In the reference scenario, worldwide final energy demand almost doubles from 293 EJ in 2005 to 571 EJ in 2050 and primary energy supply increases from 439 EJ in 2005 to 867 EJ in 2050 (excluding non-energy use). It is estimated that, by exploiting the technical potential for energy efficiency improvement in energy demand sectors, this growth can be limited to 8% or 317 EJ final energy demand and 473 EJ primary energy supply in 2050. This corresponds to a potential for demand-side energy efficiency improvement of 44% in 2050, in comparison to reference energy use. In addition, a potential exists for improving energy efficiency in the transformation sector. In 2005, as much as 33% of primary energy supply is lost in the transformation and distribution of primary energy. It is estimated that this share can be reduced to 19% in 2050 by, e.g. improving energy efficiency of fossil-fired power generation (assuming no changes in the fuel mix for power generation). Including the potential for energy efficiency improvement in energy demand sectors, total primary energy supply would then decrease by 10% from 439 EJ in 2005 to 393 EJ in 2050. This contributes to a total potential for energy efficiency improvement of 55% in 2050 in comparison to reference primary energy supply.     

Robustness as a goal in energy models and policies

Terms such as flexibility, resiliency, robustness and freedom of action are appearing increasingly in national energy policy documents with little reference to their meaning in the context of the policy or their measurement relative to policy development. One of these elements, robustness, presents an interesting alternative to cost minimization for decisions involving energy projects and policies. The use of robustness as a policy objective is examined with reference to future electrical generation in the province of Ontario, and the difficulties in planned outcomes between the goals of cost minimization and robustness are discussed. The assumption is made of a linkage between energy models and policies to facilitate the use of robustness analysis. Examples of the form of this linkage are presented in the Canadian context.     

Global overview of industrial energy intensity

Given the need to reduce the CO₂ emissions coming from the manufacturing sector, it is important, for planning purposes, to know which countries and which manufacturing sub-sectors have the greatest potential for reducing energy use. Using data from the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, the authors estimate trends in global decoupling of energy use and manufacturing value added, compare energy-use intensity in six country groups and estimate the potential for reducing energy use and CO₂ emissions under two scenarios and compare selected sub-sector energy intensity and estimate the potential for reducing energy use CO₂ emissions. The comparison of energy intensities across country groups and among countries suggests that there still remains significant potential to reduce energy use and associated CO₂ emissions. The analysis of four sub-sectors in developing and transition economies also shows similar but varied potential for reducing energy use and associated CO₂ emissions.     

An innovation idea for energy transition towards sustainable and resilient societies: Global energy interconnection

Global Energy Interconnection(hereafter GEI) is not only connectivity of power grid, but also a series of methodical innovations for energy transition towards sustainable and resilient societies,which is different from the traditional energy development mode in the past. This paper seeks to summarize the key features about the above-mentioned innovations, as Green & Clean, Balanced & Reciprocal, Efficient & Intelligent and Vitality & Business opportunity. Finally it puts forward some reflections on the future development of GEI based on ASEAN practice cases.     

Application of energy system models for designing a low-carbon society

Rising concern about the effect of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change is pushing national governments and the international community to achieve sustainable development in an economy that is less dependent on carbon emitting activities - a vision that is usually termed a “low-carbon society” (LCS). Since the utilization of energy resources is the main source of GHG emissions, restructuring current energy systems in order to incorporate low-carbon energy technologies is essential for the realization of the LCS vision. Energy policies promoting the penetration of these technologies must view the role of energy in society as a system, composed of several energy resources, conversion technologies and energy demand sectors. The feasibility of the LCS in the future can be better understood by means of energy models. Energy models are valuable mathematical tools based on the systems approach. They have been applied to aid decision-making in energy planning, to analyze energy policies and to analyze the implications arising from the introduction of technologies. The design of the LCS requires innovative energy systems considering a trans-disciplinary approach that integrates multi-dimensional elements, related to social, economic, and environmental aspects. This paper reviews the application of energy models considering scenarios towards an LCS under the energy systems approach. The models reviewed consider the utilization of waste for energy, the penetration of clean coal technologies, transportation sector models as a sample of sectoral approaches, and models related to energy-for-development issues in rural areas of developing countries.     

Global options for short-range alternative energy strategies

A discussion is presented on the possibilities of supplying the energy needs of the world and particularly of the developing countries on the basis of renewable resources: hydro power and biomass. Hydro power is found to be underused in many parts of the developing countries and, up to the end of the century at least, 25 quads per year could be produced from this source. In addition, the unused annual increment of present-day forests could supply at least another 100 quads/year in developing countries. In industrialized countries only conservation can have a significant impact as an alternative strategy.     

WWW-WATEMS-GDL: an internet modelling system for energy policy models

WATEMS-GDL is an energy-modelling system designed for the easy construction and updating of energy-planning models of the mathematical programming type. This paper describes the development of WWW-WATEMS-GDL, based on WATEMS-GDL. WATEMS-GDL users can use WWW-WATEMS-GDL to put their energy models online and therefore make their models available to the public (or other research groups) over the Internet. In addition, the issue of ownership prohibits disclosure by owners of their models to the public. WWW-WATEMS-GDL allows model owners to put non-proprietary model parameters, e.g., number of periods, on the Internet. By using an Internet browser, guest users can replace the non-proprietary parameters with their own parameters, run the model with such parameters, and obtain the corresponding results over the Internet. An illustration is given.     

Economic models for battery energy storage: improvements forexisting methods

While the technology required to produce a viable battery energy storage system exists, the economic feasibility of building these systems requires justification. A generalized decision diagram was developed to ensure that all of the economic factors were considered and properly related for the customer side of the meter. Two economic models that had consistently given differing results were compared. One was the McKinney model developed at the University of Missouri at Rolla in 1987; the second was the SYSPLAN model developed by Battelle. Four specific cases were evaluated and compared. Differences were resolved on a point-by-point basis with reference to the current economic environment. The economic model was upgraded to include the best of both models based on the resolution of these differences. The upgrades were implemented as modifications to the original SYSPLAN (1986 version) to preserve user friendliness. The modified version is the result of an investigation into current standards and practices in engineering economics as well as power distribution engineering. Therefore, more accurate results are returned to the user. Comparisons have shown that this program generally returns values between the more conservative McKinney model and the more optimistic SYSPLAN model. However, the results do not follow a linear relationship between the two extremes     

Utilities’ business models for renewable energy: A review

The transformation of today's electric power sector to a more sustainable energy production based on renewable energies will change the structure of the industry. Consequently, utilities as the major stakeholders in this transformation will face new challenges in their way of doing business. They will have to adapt their business models to remain competitive in the new energy landscape. The present review of business model literature shows that two basic choices exist: utility-side business models and customer-side business models. The two approaches follow a very different logic of value creation. While the former is based on a small number of large projects, the latter is based on a large number of small projects. The article reveals that blueprints for utility-side business models are available, whereas customer-side business models are in an early stage of development. Applying the business model framework as an analytical tool, it is found that existing utility-side business models comprise a series of advantages for utilities in terms of revenue potential and risk avoidance. This study provides new insights about why utilities will favor utility-side business models over customer-side business models and why they also should engage in customer-side business models in their quest for more sustainable future business models.     

Business models for distributed energy storage

分布式储能系统的应用正日益改变着整个电力供需体系的格局。分布式储能不仅能够解决用户的用电不稳定、用电成本高等问题,还能降低配电网高峰容量需求,弥补分布式电源出力随机性对电网的冲击,带动电网整体投资效益的提升。但从全球来看,分布式储能的发展模式还处于前期摸索阶段,如何最大化发挥分布式储能的价值还需要各国积极探讨研究。目前国内外已经初步形成了一些创新的商业模式,除了良好的市场环境基础和激励政策等外部支撑,这些新兴商业模式通常还需要具备以下条件：一是能够与需求响应资源融合;二是具有完善、能够抵御外部政策或市场环境改变的解决方案;三是易于被用户接纳。好的商业模式在内外部条件兼具的情况下,才能经得住市场的考验。