Global challenges in energy

Environmental and security concerns are stimulating global interest in hydrogen power, renewable energy, and advanced transportation technologies, but no significant movement away from oil and a carbon-based world economy is expected soon. Over the longer-term, however, a transition from fossil fuels to a non-carbon-based economy will likely occur, affecting the type of environment future generations may encounter. Key challenges will face the world's energy industry over the next few decades to ensure a smooth transition—challenges which will require government and industry solutions beginning as early as today. This paper identifies four critical challenges in energy and the choices which will have to be made on how best to confront growing pollution caused by fossil fuels and how to facilitate an eventual revolutionary-like transition to a non-carbon-based global economy.     

Global aspects of sunlight as a major energy source

To achieve and sustain a decent livable world for all is a central goal for human society. While an abundant supply of energy is not in itself a determinant of such a world, it is nevertheless essential. A careful inquiry suggests that sunlight could eventually be the primary and even exclusive source of heat, electricity and synthetic fuels for the entire world, continuously and eternally on a scale (upwards of 100 TW) generally regarded possible only with fusion or with fission via the fast breeder. This could be achieved through a global network of solar conversion facilities coupled with appropriate energy transport and storage systems, and appears to be possible within acceptable constraints on energy payback time, materials and water resources, capital investment, and available suitable land.     

World energy models—a survey and critique

Considerable intellectual effort has been devoted to the development of energy supply-demand models, some of which have been influential in energy policy making. In this paper the author presents a comparative survey of nine world energy models and assesses how far differences in conclusions depend on differences in assumptions and methodologies. The main purpose is to consider how valuable energy modelling exercises are. It is argued that many studies are misconceived in that they fail to pay sufficient attention to economic factors and to the needs of the policy maker.     

Global energy and electricity futures

A global energy perspective for the middle of the next century is presented. The premises for the projections are described. Included are assumptions as to how much conservation the world might achieve. Projections are then made for the year 2060, assuming that the global fossil fuel mix of coal, oil, and gas will not have changed substantially and that the renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass will have become commercially successful and be utilized at their maximum reasonable contribution. As a result of these projections, at least a doubling of annual carbon emissions globally is predicted. Steps that could be taken to reduce carbon emissions are discussed     

Global climate change: Implications for thailand's energy systems

An energy/environmental model has been developed to estimate Thailand's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions through the end of the National Tenth Plan (year 2011). The projection suggests that fossil-fuel consumption, not deforestation, will be the major source of emissions during 1990–2011. By the year 2011, energy-efficiency improvement measures could bring about a 14% reduction of CO₂ emissions. Any reduction beyond this level would require switches of fuel mix in the power, transportation, and industrial sectors. Fuel shifts in the power sector alone could cut emissions by up to 20% to 30%. In the longer run, Thailand should consider adopting unconventional sources of energy, as well as make use of reforestation policy to absorb future CO₂ emissions.     

Global energy efficiency improvement in the long term: a demand- and supply-side perspective

This study assessed technical potentials for energy efficiency improvement in 2050 in a global context. The reference scenario is based on the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency 2007 edition and assumptions regarding gross domestic product developments after 2030. In the reference scenario, worldwide final energy demand almost doubles from 293 EJ in 2005 to 571 EJ in 2050 and primary energy supply increases from 439 EJ in 2005 to 867 EJ in 2050 (excluding non-energy use). It is estimated that, by exploiting the technical potential for energy efficiency improvement in energy demand sectors, this growth can be limited to 8% or 317 EJ final energy demand and 473 EJ primary energy supply in 2050. This corresponds to a potential for demand-side energy efficiency improvement of 44% in 2050, in comparison to reference energy use. In addition, a potential exists for improving energy efficiency in the transformation sector. In 2005, as much as 33% of primary energy supply is lost in the transformation and distribution of primary energy. It is estimated that this share can be reduced to 19% in 2050 by, e.g. improving energy efficiency of fossil-fired power generation (assuming no changes in the fuel mix for power generation). Including the potential for energy efficiency improvement in energy demand sectors, total primary energy supply would then decrease by 10% from 439 EJ in 2005 to 393 EJ in 2050. This contributes to a total potential for energy efficiency improvement of 55% in 2050 in comparison to reference primary energy supply.     

Robustness as a goal in energy models and policies

Terms such as flexibility, resiliency, robustness and freedom of action are appearing increasingly in national energy policy documents with little reference to their meaning in the context of the policy or their measurement relative to policy development. One of these elements, robustness, presents an interesting alternative to cost minimization for decisions involving energy projects and policies. The use of robustness as a policy objective is examined with reference to future electrical generation in the province of Ontario, and the difficulties in planned outcomes between the goals of cost minimization and robustness are discussed. The assumption is made of a linkage between energy models and policies to facilitate the use of robustness analysis. Examples of the form of this linkage are presented in the Canadian context.     

Global overview of industrial energy intensity

Given the need to reduce the CO₂ emissions coming from the manufacturing sector, it is important, for planning purposes, to know which countries and which manufacturing sub-sectors have the greatest potential for reducing energy use. Using data from the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, the authors estimate trends in global decoupling of energy use and manufacturing value added, compare energy-use intensity in six country groups and estimate the potential for reducing energy use and CO₂ emissions under two scenarios and compare selected sub-sector energy intensity and estimate the potential for reducing energy use CO₂ emissions. The comparison of energy intensities across country groups and among countries suggests that there still remains significant potential to reduce energy use and associated CO₂ emissions. The analysis of four sub-sectors in developing and transition economies also shows similar but varied potential for reducing energy use and associated CO₂ emissions.     

Application of energy system models for designing a low-carbon society

Rising concern about the effect of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change is pushing national governments and the international community to achieve sustainable development in an economy that is less dependent on carbon emitting activities - a vision that is usually termed a “low-carbon society” (LCS). Since the utilization of energy resources is the main source of GHG emissions, restructuring current energy systems in order to incorporate low-carbon energy technologies is essential for the realization of the LCS vision. Energy policies promoting the penetration of these technologies must view the role of energy in society as a system, composed of several energy resources, conversion technologies and energy demand sectors. The feasibility of the LCS in the future can be better understood by means of energy models. Energy models are valuable mathematical tools based on the systems approach. They have been applied to aid decision-making in energy planning, to analyze energy policies and to analyze the implications arising from the introduction of technologies. The design of the LCS requires innovative energy systems considering a trans-disciplinary approach that integrates multi-dimensional elements, related to social, economic, and environmental aspects. This paper reviews the application of energy models considering scenarios towards an LCS under the energy systems approach. The models reviewed consider the utilization of waste for energy, the penetration of clean coal technologies, transportation sector models as a sample of sectoral approaches, and models related to energy-for-development issues in rural areas of developing countries.     

Global options for short-range alternative energy strategies

A discussion is presented on the possibilities of supplying the energy needs of the world and particularly of the developing countries on the basis of renewable resources: hydro power and biomass. Hydro power is found to be underused in many parts of the developing countries and, up to the end of the century at least, 25 quads per year could be produced from this source. In addition, the unused annual increment of present-day forests could supply at least another 100 quads/year in developing countries. In industrialized countries only conservation can have a significant impact as an alternative strategy.     

Economic models for battery energy storage: improvements forexisting methods

While the technology required to produce a viable battery energy storage system exists, the economic feasibility of building these systems requires justification. A generalized decision diagram was developed to ensure that all of the economic factors were considered and properly related for the customer side of the meter. Two economic models that had consistently given differing results were compared. One was the McKinney model developed at the University of Missouri at Rolla in 1987; the second was the SYSPLAN model developed by Battelle. Four specific cases were evaluated and compared. Differences were resolved on a point-by-point basis with reference to the current economic environment. The economic model was upgraded to include the best of both models based on the resolution of these differences. The upgrades were implemented as modifications to the original SYSPLAN (1986 version) to preserve user friendliness. The modified version is the result of an investigation into current standards and practices in engineering economics as well as power distribution engineering. Therefore, more accurate results are returned to the user. Comparisons have shown that this program generally returns values between the more conservative McKinney model and the more optimistic SYSPLAN model. However, the results do not follow a linear relationship between the two extremes     

Ex-post evaluation of European energy models

Various energy-modelling activities are pursued by public authorities, private companies and research institutes with the aim to provide energy forecasts and to assess the impact of energy and environmental policies. Nevertheless, no ex-post evaluations of the results of these modelling activities have been carried out at the European Community level.     

The limitations of energy policy models

The main purpose of this article is to highlight the problems inherent in some basic mathematical assumptions used in the formulation of models, and to show how these assumptions influence the results derived from the models. The author analyses and criticizes three energy policy models; the World Oil Model; the MIT Energy Self- Sufficiency Study; and Project Independence. The author also aims to show that failure to consider non-quantifiable factors when assessing the models' results can lead to misleading conclusions.     

Tracing the emerging energy transitions in the Global North and the Global South

During recent centuries, in the Global North, every energy crisis has been overcome, sooner or later, with a transition that has led to an increase in the average per capita energy consumption. Currently, due to the environmental and social impacts of the dominant high-consumption and fossil-fuels based energy model, we are seeing some initiatives that pursue a transition towards a democratic, low-carbon and low-energy consumption level energy system. This work analyses some of the socio-cultural, technological, economic and political factors that are leading to different multi-scale transitions towards low-energy societies around the world. It examines several different cases of transition and proposals from the Global South and Global North. Furthermore, given the limitations of the local or partial nature of these case studies, we also analyse their national energy contexts taking into account the hidden energy flows. These data integrate the total energy needed to provide the goods and services consumed by citizens and indicate the sectors that should be targeted to bring about genuine change, which sometimes differ from the transition paths signposted by national governments. The specific lessons extracted from the case studies in this research may contribute to a social learning process, promoting democratic and sustainable energy models in different regions of the world: peak oil could be an opportunity; energy needs to be equitable, not only renewable; there should be more sincerity and transparency in public energy data communication; energy should be controlled in a public or cooperative way; citizens should take control of their own investments in the energy sector; energy should be a right, not a commodity; community based consumption could reduce energy consumption; and sustainable urban development should be applied in cities and towns, where energy consumers could also become producers.     

Global energy crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario

Peak oil theory predicts that oil production will soon start a terminal decline. Most authors imply that no adequate alternate resource and technology will be available to replace oil as the backbone resource of industrial society. This article uses historical cases from countries that have gone through a similar experience as the best available analytical strategy to understand what will happen if the predictions of peak oil theorists are right. The author is not committed to a particular version of peak oil theory, but deems the issue important enough to explore how various parts of the world should be expected to react. From the historical record he is able to identify predatory militarism, totalitarian retrenchment, and socioeconomic adaptation as three possible trajectories.     

Global perspectives and options for long-range energy strategies

An attempt is made to envisage the evolution of energy supply and demand for the next 50 yr. Seven identified world regions are considered in order to bring out their interrelationships and to provide a background against which national or regional energy strategies can be evaluated. The principal tool for doing this is the elaboration of two detailed and largely internally consistent scenarios. This permits us to make interpolations and extrapolations. The scenarios are only conceptualizations, not predictions. This paper addresses only the technical and substantive aspects of the energy problem and does not look into political, institutional, and societal problems. It is thus meant to serve as a basis for broader policy decision-making.     

Trends in unit energy consumption: The performance of end-use models

This paper estimates models of electricity and gas consumption for individual households using the Miracle 4 to 6 data sets collected by San Diego Gas and Electricity Company. Two types of model were constructed: the first involves typical end-use models with consumption explained by appliance ownership, household demographic characteristics, house dimensions and household income; the second class uses these variables plus consumption data for the previous year. The latter models consistently fitted better, while the end-use variables afforded little explanatory power. The results thus suggest that simple end-use models are of little value, at least for short-run forecasting. Their use for long-run forecasting has yet to be evaluated.     

Longitudinal working models: Estimates of household energy consumption in Australia

The paper uses household expenditure survey data and alternative functional specifications of Engel's laws to establish an empirical pattern of disaggregate energy (ie electricity, gas, other fuels and gasoline) demand characterized by different demographic attributes for use in a combined panel data model of energy consumption and impact in Australia. The findings lend support, in terms of statistical efficiency and economic–theoretic plausibility, to the dominance of the Working form over the conventional linear Allen–Bowley function. Energy as a whole is a necessity while at the disaggregate level gasoline is considered a luxury. The findings indicate in this respect the existence of demand elasticity bias in aggregate energy models.