论特高压在我国能源安全中的核心地位

石油的不可再生性和稀缺性使其面临枯竭,我国能源发展应体现人口与资源承载量和环境容量相协调的生态文明特征。电能可替代多种能源,尤其是石油,未来将在我国能源安全中处于核心地位。我国发电能源与电力消费呈逆向分布,造成主要可再生发电能源大量浪费,煤炭由于运输受限而不能满足消费地需要,因此能源运输问题成为影响我国能源安全的症结。对我国而言,特高压是符合远距离运输的综合最优方案,能实现我国能源的合理配置,未来将成为节能减排的主力,并将引起交通领域的重大变革。     

The peak of oil production—Timings and market recognition

Energy is essential for present societies. In particular, transportation systems depend on petroleum-based fuels. That world oil production is set to pass a peak is now a reasonably accepted concept, although its date is far from consensual. In this work, we analyze the true expectations of the oil market participants about the future availability of this fundamental energy source. We study the evolution through time of the curves of crude oil futures prices, and we conclude that the market participants, among them the crude oil producers, already expect a near-term peak of oil production. This agrees with many technical predictions for the date of peak production, including our own, that point to peak dates around the end of the present decade. If this scenario is confirmed, it can cause serious social and economical problems because societies will have little time to perform the necessary adjustments.     

Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios

In view of the currently observed energy prices, recent price scenarios, which have been very moderate until 2004, also tend to favor high future energy prices. Having a large impact on energy-economic scenarios, we incorporate uncertain energy prices into an energy systems model by including a stochastic risk function. Energy systems models are frequently used to aid scenario analysis in energy-related studies. The impact of uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in the demand sectors is the focus of the present paper.

For the illustration of the methodological approach, scenarios for four EU countries are presented. Including the stochastic risk function, elements of high energy price scenarios can be found in scenarios with a moderate future development of energy prices. In contrast to scenarios with stochastic investment costs for a limited number of technologies, the inclusion of stochastic energy prices directly affects all parts of the energy system. Robust elements of hedging strategies include increasing utilization of domestic energy carriers, the use of CHP and district heat and the application of additional energy-saving measures in the end-use sectors. Region-specific technology portfolios, i.e., different hedging options, can cause growing energy exchange between the regions in comparison with the deterministic case.     

应用信息技术 开辟节能新篇章

信息技术将为建设节能型社会和节能技术的跨越式发展做出重要贡献。在工业节能中,信息技术在高耗能系统优化、能源管理、生产线智能化等方面发挥作用;在建筑节能中,信息技术可帮助建筑用能评估、打造智能建筑;在交通节能中,车辆节油控制、城市交通疏导、降低货运空载率都可以借助信息技术。此外,信息技术还能在能源数据统计、节能信息传播等方面发挥巨大作用。信息技术为全社会节能带来的影响不但是全面的、深入的,而且必将随着技术的进步越来越大。我国必须抓住这一机遇,开辟信息化节能的新篇章。     

Impact of urban development on residents’ public transportation travel energy consumption in China: An analysis of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles alternatives

Urban development has an important influence on the energy consumption of transportation. To develop public transportation is one of the important ways to decrease the energy consumption of urban transportation. It is very urgent to upgrade technology to reduce the energy consumption and emissions of the vehicles constantly. The popularization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is the trend of the future automobile industry, which can effectively reduce traffic energy consumption and alleviate urban pollution. This article analyzes the impact of urban development on public transport and private transportation energy consumption from 2013 to 2015; and uses hydrogen fuel cell vehicles alternatives in urban public transport as a scenario. It shows that urban economic development can effectively reduce public transport. Population growth will increase greatly energy consumption of public transport, while larger cities with reasonable spatial density can reduce traffic energy consumption. Moreover, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can effectively reduce the energy consumption and pollution emissions of urban transportation during operating. Based on the above conclusions, this article will eventually provide targeted recommendations for the development of Chinese cities, public transport, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.     

The long term implications and constraints of alternate energy policies

The complexity of the current energy situation is such that conventional analysis does not provide sufficient foundation upon which to base energy-policy decisions. We have used an overview perspective in analyzing how a diverse range of phenomena, such as population, price, inflation, transportation, agriculture, international trade and city design, are linked to energy policy. A principle tool used in the study is the hierarchical simulation model SPECULATER.

Contrary to the “conventional wisdom”, present U.S. energy prices are exceedingly low, whether the standard of comparison is the historical level of U.S. energy prices or current energy prices in other countries, which are 3 to 115 times more expensive after correcting for ability to pay. We do not suggest that higher energy prices are not inflationary, but rather that lower energy prices are also inflationary. Widening the analytical scope reveals that the “benefits” of low energy prices are more illusionary than real. What may appear to be an immediate benefit of a particular policy often turns out to be a subsequent disaster. Unless policies are aimed at promoting long-term stability instead of short-term benefit, the difficult decisions we are facing today will seem trivial compared to the agonizing decisions we stand to face in the future.

Simulations using SPECULATER indicate some of the long-term implications of current energy policy. For example, a policy in which gasoline prices decline slightly until 1980 and then increase only with inflation leads to a year 2000 wheat price that is 21% higher than that produced by a policy which advocates an increase in the price of gasoline to $1.00 by 2000. Both policies would still require large imports of oil and, consequently, would push U.S. agricultural system to a point where necessary production levels could only be met by massive increases in capital (both human and monetary), energy and water. Alternatively, an energy policy that would increase gasoline prices to a level similar to that in West Germany (about three times current U.S. prices, after correcting for ability to pay) would result in lower wheat prices, since consumption would be decreased, with concomitant decreases in oil imports and wheat exports.

Failure of policy-makers to support a strong energy policy (culminating in decreased consumption and ultimately general conservation) will result in a diversity of other problems becoming more serious. Capital promises to be a critical factor in the future, as do water, health care service, and the U.S. international trade balance. In short, “cheap” energy is not cheap; energy will be paid for a true price in some roundabout fashion, either in the supermarket, through increased taxes, loss of jobs, lack of health care services, etc.     

Energy and exergy prices of various energy sources along with their CO2 equivalents

Various types of energy sources are used in the residential and industrial sectors. Choosing the type of sources is important. When an energy source is selected, its CO₂ equivalent and energy and exergy prices must be known for a sustainable future and for establishing energy policies. These prices are based on their energy values. Exergy analysis has been recently applied to a wide range of energy-related systems. Thus, obtaining the exergy values has become more meaningful for long-term planning. In this study, energy and exergy prices of various energy sources along with CO₂ equivalents are calculated and compared for residential and industrial applications in Turkey. Energy sources considered include coal, diesel oil, electricity, fuel oil, liquid petroleum gas (LPG), natural gas, heat pumps and geothermal, and their prices were obtained over a period of 18 months, from January 2008 to June 2009. For the residential and industrial sectors, minimum energy and exergy prices were found for ground source heat pumps, while maximum energy and exergy prices belong to LPG for both sectors.     

威海市公交总公司实施公交优先技术前后节能效果对比研究

本文对公交优先技术和政策在节约能源，减少排放等方面的效果进行了对比试验。试验证明，实施公交优先技术和公交优先政策后，车辆平均百公里油耗可以降低9．54％，平均行驶车速提高32．7％，随之带来的是汽车尾气排放大量减少，而且乘客对公交满意度提高了9个百分点。试验证明，通过实施公交优先技术和公交优先政策，不仅可以解决公交拥挤问题，而且可以达到节能和降低排放的目的。     

The role of decentralized generation and storage technologies in future energy systems planning for a rural agglomeration in Switzerland

This study presents a framework to quantitatively evaluate decentralized generation and storage technology (DGST) performance and policy impacts in a rural setting. The role of DGSTs in the future energy systems planning of a rural agglomeration in Switzerland is examined using a cost optimization modeling approach. Heat and electricity demand for major sectors are considered. Scenarios introduce DGSTs in a stepwise manner to measure incremental impacts on future capacity planning compared to a baseline scenario. Sub-scenarios also examine the impacts of carbon mitigation policies, and a sensitivity analysis is carried out for key energy carriers and conversion technologies. DGSTs enable a significant reduction in electricity grid usage for the community considered. Small hydro with a storage reservoir and photovoltaics enable the community to become largely self-sufficient with over 80% reductions in grid imports by 2050 compared to the baseline scenario. Storage enables maximum usage of the available hydro potential which also leads to network upgrade deferrals and a significant increase in photovoltaic installations. Investment decisions in small hydro are robust against cost variations, while heating technology investment decisions are sensitive to oil and grid electricity prices. Carbon pricing policies are found to be effective in mitigating local fossil fuel emissions.     

浅析碟式太阳能发电技术

随着化石能源的大量开采,油价煤价不断上涨,充分利用太阳能显然具有可持续发展和节能减排的双重伟大意义。太阳能技术的大力推广在很大程度上缓解了能源问题。综合近年来国内外碟式太阳能发电技术,基于斯特林发动机,叙述了碟式／Stirling系统的构成、发电原理、发展现状,指出了目前存在的问题,提出了改善措施。     

A post-2020 EU energy technology policy: Revisiting the strategic energy technology plan

With the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET Plan) expiring in 2020, the EU needs to revisit its energy technology policy for the post-2020 horizon and to establish a policy framework that fosters the achievement of ambitious EU commitments for decarbonization by 2050. We discuss options for a post-2020 EU energy technology policy, taking account of uncertain technology developments, uncertain carbon prices and the highly competitive global market for energy technologies. We propose a revised SET Plan that enables policy makers to be pro-active in pushing innovation in promising technologies, no matter what policy context will be realized in the future. In particular, a revised SET Plan should include a more technology-specific focus, provide the basis for planning and prioritization among decarbonization technologies, and should be based on a comprehensive approach across sectors. Selected technology targets and EU funding of innovation should be in line with the SET Plan prioritization.     

The role of hydrogen in the road transportation sector for a sustainable energy system: A case study of Korea

This study analyzes the impact of the introduction of hydrogen as fuel in the road transportation sector of Korea. Since this sector is completely dependent on petroleum and alternative technologies such as fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen is one alternative fuel that could meet the challenges that Korea is facing due to rising oil prices. This study uses a scenarios-based energy economic model including the hydrogen path way as a sub-energy system to explore the energy system of Korea through 2044. This study also constructs six scenarios consisting of three government policies concerning carbon dioxide reduction and two oil price scenarios in order to assess the impact on hydrogen as fuel in the road transportation sector. The results of this study show that in a particular case (high Btu tax and oil prices) the share of hydrogen would reach 76% of the road transportation sector, and hydrogen would be produced mainly from renewable and nuclear resources via electrolysis facilities. It is also revealed that hydrogen is effective at reducing carbon dioxide, improving energy efficiency and contributing to the energy security of Korea.     

基于LEAP模型的广州交通领域能耗及空气污染物排放分析

基于长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)模型,结合情景分析法,模拟广州交通领域未来的能耗及CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5、SO2等主要空气污染物排放趋势,分析广州交通领域的节能及空气污染物排放控制策略.结果表明:综合情景下,到2035年,广州交通领域将较基准情景节能23.06％,CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5、SO2分别减...     

Research progress on pre-lithiation in carbon-based lithium-ion capacitor

锂离子电容器属于非对称型超级电容器,通常由电池型负极和电容型正极共同置于有机锂盐溶液中组装而成,兼具超级电容器的高功率特性和锂离子电池的高能量密度,在智能电网、轨道交通、新能源汽车等多个领域具有广阔的应用前景。炭材料由于来源广泛、价格低廉、性能稳定,是锂离子电容器的首选电极材料。因此,炭基锂离子电容器具有竞争性的产业化前景。负极预嵌锂技术对于炭基锂离子电容器的电化学性能具有决定性影响。本文从锂源引入位置的角度,系统回顾了锂离子电容器负极预嵌锂技术的进展情况,并就负极预嵌锂过程中的关键控制因素做了梳理,有助于全面了解负极预嵌锂技术的研究现状,为锂离子电容器的进一步发展提供科学参考。     

Hydrogen as a fuel for the transportation sector: possibilities and views for future applications in Libya

World-wide energy consumption in the transportation sector accounts for about one quarter of the total energy consumption. This implies that thousands of tons of pollutants are emitted each year. The total pollutants include CO, CO₂, HC, NO_x, SO₂ and soot particles. In Libya, the transportation sector counts for a big share of the total energy demand. So if this sector would be changed to clean fuel,the pollution will be reduced dramatically. Hydrogen is proposed (hypothetically) to be used for the transportation sector in Libya. This paper will review the advancement of this technology world wide, in a sense of hydrogen production, storage, transportation and refueling systems. The possibilities of using hydrogen in the transportation sector in Libya and the expected advantages, obstacles and constraints associated with its application and public acceptance.     

Investment in wind power and pumped storage in a real options model

Promoting renewable energy has been a key ingredient in energy policy seeking to de-carbonize the energy mix and will continue to do so in the future given the European Union's high ambitions to further curb carbon emissions. A wide range of instruments has been suggested and implemented in various countries of the EU. A prominent policy promoting investment in renewable technologies is the use of feed-in tariffs, which has worked well at large scale in, e.g. Germany, but which has only been implemented in a very limited way in countries such as the UK.Being subject to environmental uncertainties, however, renewables cannot be seen in isolation: while renewables-based technologies such as wind and solar energy, for example, suffer from uncertain loads depending on environmental conditions, hydropower allows for the storage of water for release at peak prices, which can be treated as a premium (partially) offsetting higher upfront investment costs. In addition, electricity prices will respond to changes in electric capacity in the market, which is often neglected in standard investment models of the electricity sector.This paper contributes to the existing literature in two ways: it provides a review of a renewables-based technology in a specific policy context and provides additional insight by employing a real options approach to investigate the specific characteristics of renewables and their associated uncertainties in a stylized setting taking explicitly into account market effects of investment decisions. The prices of the model are determined endogenously by the supply of electricity in the market and by exogenous electricity price uncertainty. The inclusion of market effects allows us to capture the full impact of public incentives for companies to invest into wind power and hydro pumped storage installations.     

Energy consumption in Kuwait: Prospects and future approaches

In Kuwait, the consumption of oil, the country's main source of energy, is increasing year by year. In addition to the harsh climate and the rapid economic and construction growth in the country, there are further aspects of energy inefficiency. While 10% of the produced energy was being consumed locally in 1980, this percentage increased to 20% in 2005 and is expected to reach 40% by 2015. If this situation continues, the country will be forced to increase production or reduce exportation. Both options will cause serious problems to the country in meeting future energy demands due to its dependence on oil as a source of income, shortages of other energy resources, and the environmental care of the country.     

Review of consumption trends and public policies promoting woody biomass as an energy feedstock in the U.S.

A review of the four main wood energy sectors in the U.S. was conducted to explore historic trends and the impact of alternative energy prices and public policies on wood energy consumption. High oil prices have triggered the adoption of government regulation and financial incentives to promote greater use of wood energy over the last four decades. However, the amount of wood energy consumed in the U.S. industrial sector was driven mainly by the output of the pulp and paper products industry and not by energy prices or any particular public policy incentive. Residential consumption of wood energy was positively correlated with competing energy prices. Public policies seem to have had a greater impact on wood energy consumption in the electric power sector and over the last four decades have concentrated on promoting biopower with a recent shift to liquid cellulosic biofuels. High oil prices and a series of public policies such as tax credits, loans, grants, and renewable energy standards have resulted in higher consumption of wood energy from 2004 to 2009 in the residential, electric power and commercial sectors by an estimated 5, 2, and less than 1 percent annually, respectively. The impact of new federal programs such as the Biomass Crop Assistance Program remains to be observed. Continuation of public incentives and preferential regulations for renewable energy appears to be necessary for a steady increase in U.S. wood energy consumption.     

Emerging trends in nuclear energy

Nuclear energy is faltering in many places — especially in the USA: should we write it off as the bubble that burst? The author sees underlying trends that justify a more optimistic view of nuclear energy's future — the continuing tendency for the electricity intensity of economic activity to rise while the total energy intensity falls; a consistently favourable price trend for electricity compared with energy prices generally — a trend that may become more favourable if his judgement that nuclear plants will turn out to be very long-lived is borne out by events; the substitution of electricity-based processes in industry for older processes; and the development of ultra-safe reactors which will remove once and for all the fears of accidents such as the one that occurred at Three Mile Island.     

Urban activity allocation under criteria of transportation energy efficiency

A linear programming optimization technique is applied to the problem of allocating new land using activities in an existing urban area. While it is recognized that energy is not yet as decisive a factor in the determination of household and firm locational patterns as other factors such as accessibility and time costs, the model attempts to resolve land allocation problems by means of minimizing total transportation energy costs alone. Such an analysis may serve as a benchmark against which other policies and their energy repercussions could and should be measured.