Interfuel substitution and energy consumption in the industrial sector

This paper examines the possibilities for fuel substitution in the industrial sector. First, we determine the total demand for fuel and power for the industrial sector from 1955 to 1972. We then examine fuel substitution possibilities for electricity and eight major fossil fuels consumed by the industrial sector. These are coal, natural gas, residual oil, distillate oil, kerosene, liquefied petroleum gas, still gas and petroleum coke. The analysis includes an estimation of the fuel split equations, the dynamic simulation of the industrial sector demands for fuel and the computation of short- and long-run demand elasticities for each fuel.     

Geographical problems of allocation in the Soviet fuel supply

This article examines the major problems facing Soviet planners in meeting fuel demand for boiler and furance uses in the USSR — the most flexible sector of the energy economy where direct substitution among energy sources is technically and economically at its most feasible. Data limitations and the interdependent nature of the whole fuel economy make the consistent rigid separation of this sector impossible and unprofitable. Accordingly, some attention is given to the fuel mix as a whole and to aggregate energy projections and questions of policy. (Coke is not covered.)     

Structural changes in industrial electricity use: the case of the pulp and paper industry in Sweden

The purpose of this paper is to analyse altering energy demand patterns and energy factor substitution possibilities over time in the pulp and paper industry in order to increase our understanding of suitable policy options for increasing energy efficiency. The investigation employs a flexible translog cost function and an unbalanced panel data set covering 32 pulp and paper mills over the time period 1974–2005 in Sweden. Specifically, we test whether energy factor demand patterns in the industry for the period 1974–1990 differ from those during the latter period, 1991–2005. The empirical results reveal that even though the Swedish pulp and paper industry is relatively insensitive to changes in energy factor input prices in the short run, we find evidence of significant changes over time. According to the results, the own-price sensitivity of fuel has increased since the 1970s and the 1980s, thus indicating that fuel demand has become more sensitive to short-run changes in relative prices. The estimated cross-price elasticities between electricity and fuel also support the hypothesis of increased substitutability over time. However, the null hypothesis of an equal own-price elasticity of electricity demand across the two time periods cannot be rejected.     

The Carbon-tax debate

This paper discusses recent topics related indirectly to energy production and marketing and related highly to energy policy and economy. These topics are: (1) background to carbon taxes including environmental issues — global warming and CO₂ emissions, fuel substitution and the encouragement of non-hydrocarbon fuel use; (2) climate-change convention and related conferences including those at Rio de Janeiro — objectives and achievements, and Kyoto-objectives; (3) carbon-tax proposals, including implications for oil, coal and gas: (4) The OECD view including evolution of general taxes on hydrocarbons, the carbon tax as a government revenue-raising objective, CO₂ emissions in the OECD; (5) the oil-producer's view including discrimination against oil, the impact on the incentives to use oil and gas; (6) the developing countries' view, including the need to increase fuel use for industrialisation, financial constraints on energy use, and CO₂ emissions in the developing countries.     

Transportation: meeting the dual challenges of achieving energy security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions

As the population and economy continue to grow globally, demand for energy will continue to grow. The transportation sector relies solely on petroleum for its energy supply. The United States and China are the top two oil-importing countries. A major issue both countries face and are addressing is energy insecurity as a result of the demand for liquid fuels. Improvements in the energy efficiency of vehicles and the substitution of petroleum fuels with alternative fuels can help contain growth in the demand for transportation oil. Although most alternative transportation fuels — when applied to advanced vehicle technologies — can substantially reduce greenhouse emissions, coal-based liquid fuels may increase greenhouse gas emissions by twice as much as gasoline. Such technologies as carbon capture and storage may need to be employed to manage the greenhouse gas emissions of coal-based fuels. At present, there is no ideal transportation fuel option to solve problems related to transportation energy and greenhouse gas emissions. To solve these problems, research and development efforts are needed for a variety of transportation fuel options and advanced vehicle technologies.     

The optimum mix of conservation and substitution: An example from retrofitting of old buildings

The competition between conservation and substitution for scarce resources like skilled manpower and capital is an important policy issue augmented by the fact that the bulk of the investments for the two oil reducing options will occur at different points in time. Using a simple additive approximation to describe the available conservation options in old buildings in Sweden (retrofitting), the optimum mix of conservation and substitution for satisfying the useful energy demand in those buildings has been investigated with a multiperiod LP-model (MARKAL). the optimization is made over 1980-2020 in nine five-year periods considering substitution technologies in the whole energy system. Different objective functions have been used. an analysis of the results shows clear differences in the implementation of identical conservation measures in single and multifamily houses. This is due to the fact that oil is substituted by different technologies in the two sectors.     

Testing for stability: Motor gasoline demand and distillate fuel oil demand

The structural stability of energy demand relationships is an important question in light of the events of the 1970s. This paper looks at this issue for two energy types, motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil (home heating oil). From the results of a statistical test developed by Brown, Durbin and Evans, it appears that the demand for motor gasoline destabilized following the 1979 Iranian revolution while the demand for distillate fuel oil destabilized following the very severe winter of 1976–1977. Once destabilized, neither of the demand relationships returned to their prior form.     

燃料油的新型替代品——生物质裂解油

从化石能源为主向可再生能源为主过渡,是我国能源发展战略的一项重要任务,其中,燃料油将是可再生能源服务的重要对象之一。生物质裂解油以秸秆等农林废弃物为原料,其特质适于替代燃料油。国际上生物质裂解油已经迈入产业化发展的门槛,我国亦具有广阔的市场前景。当前应该抓住国际技术发展的机遇,推动该技术的研发、示范和产业化。     

Fuel price determination in transportation sector using predicted energy and transport demand

This study determines fuel price based on estimated sectoral energy and transport demand using pumping prices. Three approaches are first used for estimating energy and transportation demand based on linear time series, polynomial time series and genetic algorithm based (GATEDE and GATDETR), as multi-parameter, models. Then, future fuel prices and marginal costs of the energy consumption are obtained. Transport demand-based energy efficiency methods are also developed. The fuel prices (FP) are analyzed under two scenarios: Linear and exponential price scenarios. Results showed that if the FP increases linearly, the marginal cost will slightly decreases from current trend, but will increases if demand increases exponentially. Results also showed that the demand-based pricing policy would help to develop a new pricing policy for fuel use in order to control fast growing demand on this sector. The exponential price increase would also help to locate financial sources to create environmentally friendly transportation systems.     

Asean energy demand: Current trends and future outlook

We analyze trends in commercial energy consumption, changes in the fuel-mix, and the relation between energy consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN region from 1960 to 1986. The structure of energy demand is examined at the sectoral level to identify systematic variations over time and across countries. Factors responsible for high demand growth changes in the demand structure are identified. The oil substitution that has taken place since 1980 is studied, and the potential for further substitution analyzed. Finally, a median projection of energy demand to the year 2000 is presented.     

Investigating the need of nuclear power plants for sustainable energy in Iran

Over the decades, the consumption of all types of energy such as electricity increased rapidly in Iran. Therefore, the government decided to redevelop its nuclear program to meet the rising electricity demand and decrease consumption of fossil fuels. In this paper, the effect of this policy in four major aspects of energy sustainability in the country, including energy price, environmental issues, energy demand and energy security have been verified. To investigate the relative cost of electricity generated in each alternative generator, the simple levelized electricity cost was selected as a method. The results show that electricity cost in fossil fuel power plants presumably will be cheaper than nuclear. Although the usage of nuclear reactor to generate power is capable of decreasing hazardous emissions into the environment, there are many other effective policies and technologies that can be implemented. Energy demand growth in the country is very high; neither nuclear nor fossil fuel cannot currently cope with the growth. So, the only solution is rationalizing energy demand by price amendment and encouraging energy efficiency. The major threats of energy security in Iran are high energy consumption growth and economic dependency on crude oil export. Though nuclear energy including its fuel cycle is Iran's assured right, constructing more nuclear power plants will not resolve the energy sustainability problems. In fact, it may be the catalyst for deterioration since it will divert capital and other finite resources from top priority and economic projects such as energy efficiency, high technology development and energy resources management.     

Energy transition,carbon dioxide reduction and output growth in the Swedish pulp and paper industry: 1973–2006

This study examines the historical relation between carbon dioxide emission and output growth in the Swedish pulp and paper industry from 1973 to 2006. We find that the industry achieved an 80 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emission, where most of the reduction took place before the implementation of active climate policy in 1991. Foremost energy substitution and also efficiency improvements contributed to the reduction. Growing prices of fossil fuel due to market price change and taxes and subsidies, explains most of the efficiency improvements and substitution. The study finds that energy transformation was coinciding with ongoing structural change in the industry during the 1970s and 1980s as well as a strong period of environmental adaption. We therefore suggest that the oil reduction was reinforced through the dynamics between the energy issue and an overall renewing process of the industry. This suggests a need to coordinate climate and environmental policy measures with the long-term industrial dynamics of structural change.     

我国开征燃油税的可行性探讨

我国即将在“十一五”期间出台全面开征燃油税取代养路费的政策,本文从社会经济和环境保护两个角度分析开征燃油税的影响。燃油税的全面开征将在一定程度上缓解我国能源紧缺、机动车污染严重、城市交通拥堵、税费制度不合理等热点问题,对我国的社会经济发展和环境保护工作是有益的。只要及时做好税收分配、非道路用油返还、打击走私和安置分流人员等工作,我国全面开征燃油税是可行的。     

Retro-analysis of liquid bio-ethanol and bio-diesel in New Zealand

This paper uses a new approach of retro-analysis. Typically policy is informed by forward-looking analysis of potential for alternative energy technologies. But historical knowledge of energy and processing requirements and greenhouse effects is more reliable for engineering evaluation of biofuel production systems. This study calculates energy inputs and greenhouse gas emissions for the most efficient biomass feedstocks in New Zealand if the policy had been implemented to maximize liquid biofuel production in the year 2004/2005. The study uses existing processing technologies and agricultural statistics. Bioethanol production is calculated from putrescible wastes and starch crops, and biodiesel production from rapeseed, tallow, wood and waste paper. Each production system is further evaluated using measures of land use, energy input, crop production related to the energy product, plus relative measures of efficiency and renewability. The research findings are that maximum biofuel production in 2004/2005 would have provided only a few per cent of demand, and would not have reduced dependence on foreign imported oil or exposure to fuel price rise. Finally, we conclude that demand management and efficiency are more effective means of meeting policy objectives.     

Long-term energy projections for the U.S.A.

This report starts by surveying a series of papers that are representative of recent U.S. work on national and international energy policy. Among professional analysts, there are the beginnings of a consensus on energy demand projections and on energy-economy interactions. Moreover, it is recognized that conservation policies will be difficult to implement unless domestic prices are raised to the international level. The paper includes a series of long-term energy projections based upon ETA-MACRO. This model allows for: energy-economy interactions, cost-effective conservation and interfuel substitution between electric and nonelectric energy. the calculations are based upon a somewhat less optimistic view of synthetic fuels and of ‘backstop’ technologies than appear in the Carter Administration's recent proposals. With synfuels, backstops and nuclear energy—and with realistically reduced projections of demand growth—there is a reasonable prospect that the U.S. could meet an international commitment to limit oil and gas imports. U.S. import reductions could be achieved directly through the market price mechanism, without tariffs or quota limitations. For this to happen, however, the international price of oil would have to be doubled (in constant dollar terms) by the year 2000. A policy of gradual OPEC oil price increases would facilitate the transition away from oil, and could serve the long-run interests of both the producing and consuming nations.     

Impacts of US biodiesel mandates on world vegetable oil markets

In this paper we seek to understand the impact of expanded use of soybean oil biodiesel to address biofuel mandates on global vegetable oil markets, and in particular on the demand for palm oil. An open-economy equilibrium model is derived to investigate the market effects of biodiesel expansion on related energy and vegetable oil markets. The model is calibrated to represent the recent benchmark data in calendar year 2014. The simulation estimates suggest that the expanded use of soy oil for biodiesel in the US will have considerable impacts on world vegetable oil markets. The majority of the vegetable oil replacement is likely to occur through substitution of palm oil under a wide range of plausible elasticity values on the demand for vegetable oil and the demand substitution between soy oils and palm oils.     

An analysis of industrial demand for natural gas

Several analysts have proposed the theory that there is a frustrated demand for natural gas in the United States. According to this theory, the natural gas curtailments of the 1970s have convinced industrial users that natural gas is not reliably available. The users are willing to buy fuel oil at a premium and store it to assure a reliable energy supply. If this theory is correct, as the supply of natural gas becomes more reliable, natural gas should be able to recapture the market share it lost to fuel oil.To investigate this theory, a state-level data base on demand for fuel oil and natural gas by all manufacturing sectors for 1971 and 1974 to 1979 was developed. Then a model was developed to explain manufacturers' demand for fuel oil and natural gas during this period on the basis of fuel price and the availability of natural gas. Rather than a frustrated demand for natural gas, we find an excess demand for natural gas in several states. Fuel oil may be able to capture the market from natural gas in these states.     

Current scenario of biodiesel development in India: prospects and challenges

For a developing nation like India, the current energy portfolio is dominated by fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and petroleum products. Due to the rapid depletion and limited available resources, the price of fossil fuel increases. Also, fossil fuel induces climate change, environmental pollution, and rising global temperature. There is urgent need to shift from conventional energy to renewable energy source for sustainable and economic growth and to enhance a country’s energy security. Biofuel offers an attractive source of energy for the substitution of fossil fuels, and looking at the huge demand for diesel in all sectors of the economy, the biodiesel is being viewed as the best substitute for diesel. The other advantage for biofuel promotion in India is climate change mitigation through reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. This article provides the current status of biodiesel development in India and discusses the role played by the centre and state government in promoting second-generation feedstock (nonedible seeds) and third-generation feedstock (algae) for biodiesel production.     

Oil refining expansion criteria for Brazil

This paper assesses different strategies for the expansion of Brazil's oil refining segment, using criteria that range from energy security (reducing imports and vulnerability for key products) through to maximizing the profitability of this sector (boosting the output of higher value oil products) and adding value to Brazil's oil production (reducing exports of heavy acid oil). The development prospects are analyzed for conventional fuel production technology routes, sketching out three possible refining schemes for Brazilian oil and a GTL plant for producing gasoil from natural gas. Market scenario simulations indicate that investments will be required in Brazil's oil refining segment over and above those allocated to planned modifications in its current facilities, reducing the nation's vulnerability in terms of gasoil and petrochemical naphtha imports. Although not economically attractive, oil refining is a key activity that is crucial to oil company strategies. The decision to invest in this segment depends on local infrastructure conditions, environmental constraints and fuel specifications, in addition to oil company strategies, steady growth in demand and the definition of a government policy that eases institutional risks.     

Cost-effective policy instruments for greenhouse gas emission reduction and fossil fuel substitution through bioenergy production in Austria

Climate change mitigation and security of energy supply are important targets of Austrian energy policy. Bioenergy production based on resources from agriculture and forestry is an important option for attaining these targets. To increase the share of bioenergy in the energy supply, supporting policy instruments are necessary. The cost-effectiveness of these instruments in attaining policy targets depends on the availability of bioenergy technologies. Advanced technologies such as second-generation biofuels, biomass gasification for power production, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) will likely change the performance of policy instruments. This article assesses the cost-effectiveness of energy policy instruments, considering new bioenergy technologies for the year 2030, with respect to greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reduction and fossil fuel substitution. Instruments that directly subsidize bioenergy are compared with instruments that aim at reducing GHG emissions. A spatially explicit modeling approach is used to account for biomass supply and energy distribution costs in Austria. Results indicate that a carbon tax performs cost-effectively with respect to both policy targets if BECCS is not available. However, the availability of BECCS creates a trade-off between GHG emission reduction and fossil fuel substitution. Biofuel blending obligations are costly in terms of attaining the policy targets.