Stochastic modelling of daily global solar radiation measured in Marrakesh, Morocco

Two stochastic models are presented of the daily global solar radiation obtained from three years of data measured on a horizontal surface in Marrakesh, Morocco (latitude 31°37′N, longitude 08°02′W, elevation 463 m). The development of these models is based on the removal of the annual periodicity and seasonal variation of solar radiation using two types of normalisation. The first model is developed using a classical decomposition of the daily radiation as the sum of two components: a trend component and a stochastic component. This model is most useful for long simulated sequences. The second model is developed using a non-dimensional variable, the clearness index, which is modelled as a stochastic process after a preliminary transformation leading to a stationary time series. Both models have satisfactorily passed validation tests for forecasting and simulation of daily global solar radiation data.     

RECONSTRUCTION OF SYNTHETIC METEOROLOGICAL SEQUENCES BY USING MARKOV TRANSITION MATRIX FOR SOLAR THERMAL SIMULATION

A Markov Transition Matrix (MTM) approach used to reconstruct the synthetic sequences of both hourly global radiation and hourly ambient temperature, which has a strong effect on the output of solar thermal systems and has not been taken into account. The result shows that the main statistical features of natural sequences, i.e., probability density function, sequential characteristics and the variance of the fluctuations, can be simulated by Markov transition-matrix obtained from recorded meteorological data. Its quality depends upon data record number in order that the synthetic sequences match long-term statistic characters of natural sequences. Comparisons have been made among different record number and the minimum number of records is sought. It is shown that the minimum data to generate hourly MTM is 12,410 data number for global radiation and 43,800 data for ambient temperature.     

Use of some simple statistical models in solar meteorology

Two simple statistical models of the global daily irradiation obtained from data measured in three different places (a temperate one, a Mediterranean one and a tropical one) are presented. The first model appears to be especially adapted to calculate forecasts with a few measurements, whereas the second gives easily long simulated series. To obtain these long simulated sequences we need some daily functions defined on the year (365 points for each function); we give a relatively small number of parameters which are sufficient to calculate these functions. We also define a unified simple preliminary transformation which allows using standard white noise to build simulations in any site.     

Modeling and simulation of a stand-alone photovoltaic system using an adaptive artificial neural network: Proposition for a new sizing procedure

This paper presents an adaptive artificial neural network (ANN) for modeling and simulation of a Stand-Alone photovoltaic (SAPV) system operating under variable climatic conditions. The ANN combines the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm (LM) with an infinite impulse response (IIR) filter in order to accelerate the convergence of the network. SAPV systems are widely used in renewable energy source (RES) applications and it is important to be able to evaluate the performance of installed systems. The modeling of the complete SAPV system is achieved by combining the models of the different components of the system (PV-generator, battery and regulator). A global model can identify the SAPV characteristics by knowing only the climatological conditions. In addition, a new procedure proposed for SAPV system sizing is presented in this work. Different measured signals of solar radiation sequences and electrical parameters (photovoltaic voltage and current) from a SAPV system installed at the south of Algeria have been recorded during a period of 5-years. These signals have been used for the training and testing the developed models, one for each component of the system and a global model of the complete system. The ANN model predictions allow the users of SAPV systems to predict the different signals for each model and identify the output current of the system for different climatological conditions. The comparison between simulated and experimental signals of the SAPV gave good results. The correlation coefficient obtained varies from 90% to 96% for each estimated signals, which is considered satisfactory. A comparison between multilayer perceptron (MLP), radial basis function (RBF) network and the proposed LM–IIR model is presented in order to confirm the advantage of this model.     

Ductile failure analysis of API X65 pipes with notch-type defects using a local fracture criterion

A local failure criterion for API X65 steel is applied to predict ductile failure of full-scale API X65 pipes with simulated corrosion and gouge defects under internal pressure. The local failure criterion is the stress-modified fracture strain as a function of the stress triaxiality (defined by the ratio of the hydrostatic stress to the effective stress). Based on detailed finite element (FE) analyses with the proposed local failure criterion, burst pressures of defective pipes are estimated and compared with experimental data. For pipes with simulated corrosion defects, FE analysis with the proposed local fracture criterion indicates that predicted failure takes place after the defective pipes attain maximum loads for all cases, possibly due to the fact that the material has sufficient ductility. For pipes with simulated gouge defects, on the other hand, it is found that predicted failure takes place before global instability, and the predicted burst pressures are in good agreement with experimental data, providing confidence in the present approach.     

UV solar radiation on a tilted and horizontal plane: Analysis and comparison of 4 years of measurements

In the global wavelength range (300–3000 nm), it is known that a plane with a slope equal to the latitude of the location, receives more annual energy than the horizontal plane, mainly due to the increase in direct irradiation on the interest plane. The UV (280–400 nm) spectra at the earth surface, has a larger component of diffuse and a minor component of direct solar radiation compared to the global wavelength range, therefore the increase in annual energy due to plane inclination should also be different. This work, analyzes 4 years of solar UV radiation measurements performed on tilted and horizontal planes located at the Plataforma Solar de Almería, Spain. The monthly mean ratio of tilted/horizontal solar UV irradiation varies with the time of the year, reaching values of 1.25 and 0.95 for winter and summer, respectively. The same ratio in the solar global spectra rises up to 1.70 and 0.85 for the same months. The annual UV solar energy increase on a plane tilted 37° and oriented towards the equator is around 3–4%, whereas is around 10% in the global spectra. In this way UV annual energy increase due to inclination and orientation of the plane is much lower than that for global radiation. Determination of a unique method to assess all possible inclinations and orientations, require simultaneous measurement of diffuse and direct UV radiation performed with radiometers of identical spectral response. Given the worldwide scarcity of these type of data, an empirical correlation that relates horizontal UV irradiation to that on a 37° inclined plane was determined. Monthly and annual tendencies of solar UV irradiation have been analyzed and compared with the solar global irradiation.     

水平面上日总辐射组合模型

该文建立了北京地区日总辐射的组合模型：确定性模型＋随机模型。首先采用傅立叶分析得到了日辐射的确定性部分。然后从原始数据减去确定性部分得到随机项。对随机项进行了平稳正态变换，并建立随机自回归AR（1）模型。该模型抓住了日总辐射的变化分布特征，能够产生具有代表意义的数据，供能量分析用。     

An analysis of future building energy use in subtropical Hong Kong

Principal component analysis of prevailing weather conditions in subtropical Hong Kong was conducted, and a new climatic index Z (as a function of the dry-bulb temperature, wet-bulb temperature and global solar radiation) determined for past (1979–2008, measurements made at local meteorological station) and future (2009–2100, predictions from general circulation models) years. Multi-year (1979–2008) building energy simulations were carried out for a generic office building. It was found that Z exhibited monthly and seasonal variations similar to the simulated cooling/heating loads and building energy use. Regression models were developed to correlate the simulated monthly building cooling loads and total energy use with the corresponding Z. Error analysis indicated that annual building energy use from the regression models were very close to the simulated values; the difference was about 1%. Difference in individual monthly cooling load and energy use, however, could be up to 4%. It was also found that both the DOE-simulated results during 1979–2008 and the regression-predicted data during 2009–2100 indicated an increasing trend in annual cooling load and energy use and a gradual reduction in the already insignificant heating requirement in cooling-dominated office buildings in subtropical climates.     

Stochastic modeling and generation of synthetic sequences of hourly global solar irradiation at Quetta, Pakistan

Using hourly global radiation data at Quetta, Pakistan for 10 yr, an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) process is fitted. Markov Transition Matrices have also been developed. These models are used for generating synthetic sequences for hourly radiations in MJ/m² and that the generated sequences are compared with the observed data. We found the MTM approach relatively better as a simulator compared to ARMA modeling.     

基于傅氏分析和改进灰狼算法的波浪发电系统最大功率点跟踪

为实现海洋波浪发电系统输出功率优化控制,提出傅氏分析法优化的改进灰狼算法。在保留灰狼优化算法最本质特征基础上,增加全新的精英狼搜索策略和狼群整体展开策略,优化包围圈形成策略、狼群搜索猎物方式和狼群结构,确保改进灰狼算法能避免因浮子水动力非线性陷入局部最优。引入傅氏分析法分解海洋入射波和电机运动部件响应,对浮子捕获频率范围内的每个波浪分量,使用改进灰狼算法求解对应的最佳电机控制参数,最大限度地捕获其携带的功率。仿真表明,输入不同模拟海洋入射波时,基于傅氏分析法和改进灰狼算法,可有效实现振荡浮子式波浪发电系统的最大功率点跟踪。     

Thermodynamic optimization of geometric structure in the counterflow heat exchanger for an environmental control system

This paper shows that the internal geometric configuration of a component can be deduced by optimizing the global performance of the installation that uses the component. The example chosen is the counterflow heat exchanger that serves as condenser in a vapor-compression-cycle refrigeration system for environmental control of aircraft. The optimization of global performance is achieved by minimizing the total power requirement or the total entropy generation rate. There are three degrees of freedom in the heat exchanger configuration, which is subjected to two global constraints: total volume, and total volume (or weight) of wall-material. Numerical results show how the optimal configuration responds to changes in specified external parameters such as refrigeration load, fan efficiency, and volume and weight. In accordance with constructal theory and design [1], it is shown that the optimal configuration is robust: major features such as the ratio of diameters and the flow length are relatively insensitive to changes in the external parameters.     

Simple procedure for generating sequences of daily radiation values using a library of Markov transition matrices

This article describes how sequences of daily global radiation can be generated for any location, using as input only the average monthly radiation for that location (or the average monthly number of sunshine hours—insolation). The generated sequences are statistically indistinguishable from real ones and the method derived here is, therefore, a way of obtaining radiation sequences for locations were such sequences have not been measured, and for which many types of long-term performance calculations could not be made until now. The method is based on the observation that (1) there is a significant correlation only between radiation values for consecutive days and (2) that the probability of occurrence of radiation values is the same for months with the same K_t (clearness index). The method employs a library of Markov transition matrices, each corresponding to a specific interval in K_t. This article explains the derivation of the matrices, how they are to be used to generate radiation sequences, and compares synthetized and measured sequences.     

Local and global collapse pressure of longitudinally flawed pipes and cylindrical vessels

Limit loads can be calculated with the finite element method (FEM) for any component, defect geometry, and loading. FEM suggests that published long crack limit formulae for axial defects under-estimate the burst pressure for internal surface defects in thick pipes while limit loads are not conservative for deep cracks and for pressure loaded crack-faces. Very deep cracks have a residual strength, which is modelled by a global collapse load. These observations are combined to derive new analytical local and global collapse loads. The global collapse loads are close to FEM limit analyses for all crack dimensions.     

非预混湍流射流H2/N2扩散火焰中的局部熄火和再燃现象

为了提高燃烧室中燃料的利用率,避免火焰的全局熄火,对于熄火和再燃现象的研究是十分必要的.利用一维湍流(ODT)模型研究了非预混湍流射流火焰中的熄火和再燃现象.在固定雷诺数为10 000的情况下,对两个不同的火焰进行了模拟,这两个火焰具有不同的全局混合速率.熄火现象主要发生在近场区域.随着全局混合速率的增加,局部熄火的区域也随之增加.两个火焰的最大熄火区域分别为20%和62%.在熄火区域,主要污染物NO迅速减少.模拟结果显示熄火是一个快速的过程,而与之相对应的再燃过程则较为缓慢.     

A specific exergy costing assessment of the integrated copper-chlorine cycle for hydrogen production

In this study the specific exergy costing (SPECO) approach is employed on a four-step integrated thermochemical copper-chlorine (Cu Cl) cycle for hydrogen production for a second-law based assessment purposes. The Cu–Cl cycle is considered as one of the most environmentally benign and sustainable options of producing hydrogen and is thus investigated in this study due to its potential of ensuring zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Several conceptual Cu–Cl cycles have been exergoeconomically examined previously, however this study aims at investigating the four-step integrated Cu–Cl cycle developed at the Clean Energy Research Laboratory (CERL) at the Ontario Tech University thereby contributing to the thermo/exergoeconomic assessments of the thermochemical hydrogen production. In this study, the cycle is first thermodynamically modeled and simulated in a process simulation software (Aspen Plus) through exergy and energy approaches. The basic principles of the SPECO methodology are applied to the system and exergetic cost balances are performed for each cycle component. The exergetic costing of each cycle stream is then performed based on the cost balance equations. The purchased equipment cost and the hourly levelized capital cost rates for each cycle component is also obtained. The exergoeconomic factor, relative cost difference and exergy destruction cost rate for various cycle components are also evaluated. Moreover, the effect of several parameters on the total and hourly levelized capital cost rates is analyzed by performing a comprehensive sensitivity analysis. Based on the analysis, the exergy cost, the unit or specific exergy cost, and the unit costs of hydrogen are evaluated to be 6407.55 $/h, 0.042 $/MJ, and 4.94 $/kg respectively.     

Direct numerical simulations of non-premixed ethylene–air flames: Local flame extinction criterion

Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) of ethylene/air diffusion flame extinctions in decaying two-dimensional turbulence were performed. A Damköhler-number-based flame extinction criterion as provided by classical large activation energy asymptotic (AEA) theory is assessed for its validity in predicting flame extinction and compared to one based on Chemical Explosive Mode Analysis (CEMA) of the detailed chemistry. The DNS code solves compressible flow conservation equations using high order finite difference and explicit time integration schemes. The ethylene/air chemistry is simulated with a reduced mechanism that is generated based on the directed relation graph (DRG) based methods along with stiffness removal. The numerical configuration is an ethylene fuel strip embedded in ambient air and exposed to a prescribed decaying turbulent flow field. The emphasis of this study is on the several flame extinction events observed in contrived parametric simulations. A modified viscosity and changing pressure (MVCP) scheme was adopted in order to artificially manipulate the probability of flame extinction. Using MVCP, pressure was changed from the baseline case of 1 atm to 0.1 and 10 atm. In the high pressure MVCP case, the simulated flame is extinction-free, whereas in the low pressure MVCP case, the simulated flame features frequent extinction events and is close to global extinction. Results show that, despite its relative simplicity and provided that the global flame activation temperature is correctly calibrated, the AEA-based flame extinction criterion can accurately predict the simulated flame extinction events. It is also found that the AEA-based criterion provides predictions of flame extinction that are consistent with those provided by a CEMA-based criterion. This study supports the validity of a simple Damköhler-number-based criterion to predict flame extinction in engineering-level CFD models.     

On the potential change in solar radiation over the US due to increases of atmospheric greenhouse gases

Solar radiation is the most important source of renewable energy available to reduce fossil CO₂ atmospheric emissions and also is an important factor in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) energy considerations. Solar radiation may be affected by climate changes induced by CO₂ emissions. In this study, a refined regional climate model was used to generate seasonal global radiation climatologies for the US under the present and mid 21st century enhanced atmospheric CO₂ level. Simulated seasonal-mean daily global radiation (direct plus diffuse incident radiation on a horizontal surface) under the present climate showed overall reasonable agreement with observed patterns but with negative biases in most locations. In most of the US, the enhanced CO₂ simulation (future climate) showed a trend of decreased seasonal-mean daily global radiation availability in the range of 0–20%. The most noticeable decrease was simulated in the western US during fall, winter, and spring. In small areas in the southern and northwestern US some increase in global radiation was simulated. Changes in global radiation during summer were relatively low.     

Analysis of heat losses from a trapezoidal cavity used for Linear Fresnel Reflector system

A Computational study to investigate the heat loss due to radiation and steady laminar natural convection flow in a trapezoidal cavity having eight absorber tubes for a Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR) solar thermal system with uniformly heated tubes and adiabatic top wall and side walls has been performed. The losses due to convection and radiation were considered from the bottom glass cover. The results are validated with experimental data. Radiative component of losses from the cavity was found to be dominant which contributes around 80–90%. Heat loss characteristics have been studied for cavities of different depths. Simulations have been carried out for various values of heat transfer coefficient based on the wind speed below the glass surface. Effect of emissivities of the tubes on the heat loss has also been simulated. Flow pattern and isotherms inside the cavity for various depths have been analyzed. Finally, the correlation between the total average Nusselt number and its influencing parameters has been obtained for the proposed cavity.     

Markov processes and Fourier analysis as a tool to describe and simulate daily solar irradiance

Time series of 20 years of daily solar irradiance data from four italian stations are analyzed on a statistical basis. It is shown that the irradiation sequences are not stationary, both in the mean and in the variance. They can be determined by three components: (a) a mean, well described by a Fourier series with only one coefficient; (b) a variance about the mean, well fitted by a Fourier expansion with two coefficients; (c) a stochastic component. The stochastic component follows a first order Markov model. Since it has a non-normal distribution, a normalizing transform has been introduced which does not affect its statistical properties.     

Global transmissivity and diffuse fraction of solar radiation for clear and cloudy skies as measured and as predicted by bulk transmissivity models

Measurements of cloudiness and of global, direct, and diffuse radiation taken over a 13 mo period at Davis, CA, are analyzed in terms of global transmission (K_t) and diffuse fraction (K_d) for clear sky conditions and for various cloudiness conditions. A number of global transmission clear sky models are compared with observations for ranges of total water column and turbidity and some are found to give representative values for the global radiation at the ground.The dependence of the diffuse fraction on global transmission is found to be best represented by linear formulae—with different dependencies found for clear and cloudy conditions.Global transmission models are also compared with observations for cloudy conditions and found to give representative values of cloud transmissivities if climatological differences in the cloudiness at the measurement site and those sites used to calibrate the cloud models are considered.These results support the use of routine instantaneous surface meteorological data to calculate the most likely instantaneous global and diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface in the absence of any radiation measurements. These calculated irradiances are best used for solar energy system dynamic modeling in which system responses to typical sequences in meteorological conditions are being examined.