An evaluation of the estimates of gross domestic agricultural output as used in input-output studies with particular reference to the western states

One basic task in the construction of an 11 western state multiregional input-output table is the preparation of reliable estimates of the value of gross output for the sectors comprising agriculture.A method which is often employed is to apportion national gross output to each state on the basis of some physical criterion, such as the number in the labor force, the acreage of crops grown, etc. This method has a number of obvious defects and serves only to mask the great regional and state differences in the mix of factors employed in agriculture—a more capital-intensive agriculture employs relatively less labor than a labor-intensive agriculture and productivity can vary greatly (mechanized cotton culture and harvesting in western states versus hand cotton farming in parts of the Southeast).That farm cash receipts are a good indicator of gross agricultural output is the basic assumption in the method presently developed. Cash receipts from farm marketings are readily available for each state, and these data have been published over a long series of years. Inflating farm cash receipts and associated data by a factor offers a simple but as yet unproven method to devise reliable estimates of gross output. Tests are continuing to establish its reliability.This paper is an abridged version of Working Paper No. 1, the first of a series to be undertaken as fulfilling the needs of one phase of a research commitment sponsored by the Western Regional Science Association Ad Hoc Committee on Input-Output. The unabridged Working Paper No. 1 is available from the Department of Agricultural Economics, University of California, Berkeley. Working Paper No. 2, now in preparation, supplements the information in this paper and deals with estimates of gross output of agriculture for four sector in agriculture for each of the 11 western states.Research Assistant, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of California, Berkeley.Postgraduate Agricultural Research Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of California, Berkeley.     

The stability of the regional share component: some further evidence

The shift and share method of regional analysis has definite appeal as a projection device, and has received both considerable attention in the literature and wide usage in recent years. One of the principal criticisms of the technique is that the regional share component of the model is unstable over time. The purpose of this paper is to provide further evidence on the debate regarding the stability of the share component using correlation analysis. This paper provides a test of the hypotheses of James and Hughes that (1) the component is possibly unstable for certain industries while being stable for others and (2) the stability varies across state or other geographic regions. The results do not support the conclusion that the share component is so highly unstable that the shift and share model is unusable as a projection technique. The tests indicate that the share component is stable for 23 of the 29 individual industries. The share component also proved stable for a majority of tests at the multi-state and state level of geographic disaggregation while being unstable for sub-state regions.     

Neighbour regions as the source of new industries

The development of new industries demands access to local capabilities. Little attention has yet been paid to the role of spillovers from neighbour regions for industrial diversification, nor has the role of network linkages between neighbour regions been investigated. As the spread of capabilities has a strong geographical bias, we expect regions to develop new industries in which their neighbour regions are specialized. To test this hypothesis, we analyse the development of new industries in US states during the period 2000–2012. We show that a US state has a higher probability of developing a comparative advantage in a new industry if a neighbour state is specialized in that industry. We also show that neighbour US states have more similar export structures. This export similarity seems to be explained by higher social connectivity between neighbour states, as embodied in their bilateral migration patterns.     

基于DEA技术的地区建筑业分析

文章依据DEA（数据包络分析）的基本理论和方法,通过建立C^2R模型,对全国大部分省级地区的建筑业进行了较为细致的分析。对各地区建筑业发展的投入、产出的不足之处予以了说明,同时对这些地区的竞争力作了详细的分析和论证。     

Fluctuations in nitrate concentrations utilized as an assessment of agricultural contamination to an aquifer of a semiarid climatic region

Aquifer water has become contaminated in regions that have been developed for agriculture. Nitrate contamination has been shown to be permeable to the aquifer and harmful to human health. An assessment of agricultural practices and their roles in contamination of aquifers has been undertaken with difficulty in the past. Nitrate concentrations have been utilized in this study to demonstrate their applicability to examining agriculture practices which contaminate aquifer water. Areas treated with nitrogenous fertilizers and subsequently irrigated were found to contain aquifer fluctuations in nitrate content directly in proportion to irrigation seasons. Agricultural industries with high animal densities per land area, and high water consumption for maintenance, were found to have high, but non-fluctuating, nitrate concentrations. Areas with high animal density per land area with low water usage for maintenance; areas with low animal density per land area; and agricultural practices for which little or no nitrogenous fertilizers were used demonstrated low aquifer nitrate concentrations regardless of water usage.     

Improving regional I-O models: Evidence against uniform regional purchase coefficients across rows

Most non-survey input-output methods, either implicitly or explicitly, attempt to identify the regional component of the direct requirements coefficient. The major non-survey methods, LQ, supply-demand pool, Stevens' RPC and RAS, define the regional component to be the same across a row: that is, all industries requiring input i will buy the same proportion of it within the region as other industries purchasing input i. In this paper, primary data is used to estimate the regional component of manufactured input purchases for several different industries in each row. This allows the hypothesis of uniformity for several sectors' regional purchases of an input to be evaluated.Specifically primary data about the location of specific input purchases, i.e., regional purchase coefficients, are introduced into an existing Delaware input-output model which was estimated using the supply-demand pool method. The changes are significant and, therefore, the implications of these changes for the understanding and use of models prepared using non-survey methods are discussed.     

Decomposing growth in a multiregional I-O framework

Since the pioneering work of Wassilly Leontief, a remarkable amount of theoretical and empirical work has continuously supported Input-Output modelling. In particular, the peculiar structure of dynamic input-output (I-O) model have originated, in numerous fields ranging from mathematical economics to system theory, an abundance of contributes. This paper deals with the computational problem of managing regional growth within a dynamic multiregional input-output model. Starting from the basic matrices of technological capital and trade coefficients, the regional components associated to a given group of regions are appropriately recognised and separated. A numerical example, based on the Italian case, is also discussed.An earlier of this paper was presented at the Thirty-fourth Annual Meeting of Western Regional Science Association in San Diego and has benefitted from comments during the conference. The authors are grateful for suggestions rendered by the anonymous referees. They also wish to thank Prof. G. Hewings and P.R. Israilevich for their useful comments and suggestions.     

The design of computer simulation experiments with an econometric model of a regional economy: The state of Colorado

This paper presents an annual econometric model of the Colorado economy and reports on the results of simulations through 1981 of the economic impacts which selected exogenous state and national economic policies may have on the state economy. Specification of the model's demand-oriented equations was guided by the a priori economic base information derived from the Colorado State University input-output model of the Colorado economy. The block recursive 180 equation model is linked to the Wharton Annual Model of the U.S. economy. Elasticity analysis indicates that the Colorado economy will (1) grow more rapidly than the national economy through 1981 and be less cyclically volatile, (2) be strongly affected by an agricultural drought or a boom in the state's coal industry, and (3) be virtually unaffected by a 50 percent reduction in the state's active duty military industry. Although the state of Colorado was selected as the focus of this paper, the methodology was developed with sufficient generality to encourage application to any regional economy.This paper is based on the author's doctoral dissertation which has been accepted by the University of Colorado and which was completed prior to the author's current employment. The author would like to thank Professors Robert McNown and Larry Singell of the University of Colorado for their guidance and encouragement and Professor Lawrence Klein of the University of Pennsylvania for making the Colorado-Wharton linkage possible.     

The Border Industry Program and the impacts of expenditures by Mexican Border Industry employees on a U.S. Border Community: An empirical study of nogales

The Border Industries Program was initiated in 1965 as a series of agreements between Mexico and the United States to bring U.S. industries to the Mexican side of the border, and thereby provide employment and income opportunities in a region of relatively high unemployment. Since 1965, many U. S. industries have taken advantage of the Program, and located firms on the Mexican and U.S. side of the border. Supposedly this has fostered economic development of not only the Mexican border region, but also U.S. border communities. Part of this impact has resulted from the expenditures of Mexican Border Industry employees in the adjacent U.S. town. The objective of the research presented in the present article is to empirically estimate the impact of these expenditures on income, employment, and population in a specific U.S. border community. An input-output model of the Nogales, Arizona, area is used in a case study in making the analysis. The results indicate that the impact of the Mexican Border Industry wage payments on the Nogales, Arizona, economy have been significant. Policy implications for those interested in regional economic development are given.The authors wish to thank Dr. Sylvia Lane, Dr. George Learning, Dr. William Martin, and Mr. Harry Plumlee for comments and suggestions on an earlier draft. The research reported herein is a contribution to Western Regional Research Project W-113, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Agricultural Experiment Station of the University of Arizona College of Agriculture. The article is Journal Paper No. 2057 of the Arizona Agricultural Experiment Station.     

Regionalizing national projections with a multiregional input-output model linked to a demographic model

Multiregional input-output has long been recognized as a tool that provides an appropriate framework for considering regional growth and development questions, but implementation problems have impeded utilization of this methodology. This paper discusses how several of these problems have been partially overcome with a multiregional economic-demographic model of the Southwest. The model is used to regionalize projections from a national dynamic input-output model.     

Sources of structural change in the Washington economy

This paper analyzes changes in the structure of the Washington economy from 1963 to 1982. The empirical model utilizes data from the Washington state input-output tables for 1963 and for 1982. The model accounts for output change from a demand side perspective. Special attention is given to market diversification and the role of markets at the state, national and international levels in explaining real growth in given sector. Taking the service-producing sectors in Washington as an example, 48% of the real output change in the service sectors was associated with demand change from foreign and rest of the US sources, while 52% of service output change was associated with Washington intermediate and final demand variables. The implication is that important elements of Washington service-producing sectors are driven by demand exogenous to Washington and should properly be considered a part of Washington's economic base.The authors would like to acknowledge Philip Bourque whose dedication and hard work in collection and building the Washington input-output models made this study possible. We would also like to thank Judith Brown for her helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

The choice of an input-output table embedded in regional econometric input-output models

In this paper, we investigate the role of input-output data sources in regional econometric input-output models. While there has been a great deal of experimentation focused on the accuracy of alternative methods for estimating regional inputoutput coefficients, little attention has been directed to the role of accuracy when the input-output system is nested within a broader accounting framework. The issues of accuracy were considered in two contexts, forecasting and impact analysis focusing on a model developed for the Chicago region. We experimented with three input-output data sources: observed regional data, national input-output, and randomly generated inputoutput coefficients. The effects of different sources of input-output data on regional econometric input-output models revealed that there are significant differences in results obtained in both forecast and impact analyses. The adjustment processes inherent in the econometric input-output system did not mask the differences imbedded in input-output tables derived from different data sources. Since applications of these types of models involve both impact and forecasting exercises, there should be strong motivation for basing the syste on the most accurate set of input-output accounts.     

以小城镇建设为基点促进新农村建设发展——以武汉市汉南区新农村建设规划为例

作为我国行政体系中最基本的社会单位,村庄大多不是孤立存在的,它们都是存在于小城镇这个社会、经济、文化、生态空间范围内。农业是弱势产业,农村是弱势地区,农民是弱势群体。农业问题不能局限在农业内部解决,农村问题不能局限在农村内部解决,农民问题不能局限在农民内部解决。要解决农业问题,需要大力发展非农产业;要解决农村问题,需要充分促进小城镇建设发展,并且充分发挥小城镇这个重要基点的辐射带动作用,促进新农村建设事业的全面发展。     

Identification of strategic industries: A dynamic perspective

Reliable estimates of the economy-wide losses associated with industry closings are generally hard to obtain. In the input-output literature, numerous measures of the social value of industries have been proposed. These measures are mostly based on comparative statics results, whereas the recent upsurge of growth theories suggests a dynamic perspective. In this article hypothetical extraction methods are used in a new dynamic input-output growth model. The model also stresses the importance of technological linkages between industries and of international trade performance. The potential power of the dynamic extraction methodology is illustrated by simulation results for a hypothetical economy.Received: 5 March 2002, Accepted: 28 April 2004, JEL Classification: C67, O11, O21, O33, O41This article originates from the TEG research project jointly carried out by researchers at the universities of Eindhoven, Groningen and Maastricht. Earlier versions were presented at the 41st European Regional Science Association Congress (Zagreb, August 2001), the 14th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques (Montreal, October 2002) and at seminars at the Universities of Utrecht, Eindhoven and Oviedo. I would like to thank Erik Dietzenbacher, Koen Frenken, Kresimir Jurlin, Alessandro Nuvolari, Marcel Timmer, Frank van Oort, Bart Verspagen, and three anonymous referees for their useful comments and suggestions. The Dutch Organization for Scientific Research NWO is gratefully acknowledged for financial support.     

A metropolitan input-output model: Multisectoral and multispatial relations of production,income formation,and consumption

This study formulates a metropolitan input-output model (hereafter MIO) that incorporates the multispatial and multisectoral nature of an urban economic system. Two main features can be highlighted which distinguish the MIO model from other input-output models as applied to the urban context. The MIO model integrates information on intrametropolitan flows of people, commodities and services through the embedding approach within an input-output framework. Accordingly, the model has been built in one methodological framework (input-output framework) and operated by using one calculation system (inversion of input coefficient matrix), taking interspatial and intersectoral linkages into consideration. Another unique characteristic of the proposed model is that the input coefficient matrix of the MIO model consists of three partitioned matrices that have different spatial dimensions: interindustrial technical coefficients by place of production; the income coefficients by place of residence, and consumption coefficients by place of consumption. The MIO model can be applied for the impact analysis of a variety of urban policy evaluations. The main sets of results are derived as outputs from the MIO model: gross output and employment by zone, by sector, by income group, and by repercussion type.The early version of this paper was presented at the Western Regional Science Association (WRSA), February 25-28, 2001, Palm Springs, CA. This Research was supported by the Chung-Ang University Special Research Grants in 1999.     

地方产业驱动乡村发展的特征机制与政策启示——以浙江省山下湖镇为例

农业资源是我国广大乡村地区最为普遍的资源禀赋，但仅仅依靠传统农业容易走向“高产量—低产能”的内卷化困境，如何基于农业资源突破路径依赖、实现可持续且高质量的乡村发展成为一个重要议题。浙江省山下湖镇基于淡水湖面资源，由传统农业转型发展珍珠产业，逐渐实现高质量的可持续发展。基于实地调研访谈与经验研究，剖析山下湖镇珍珠产业转型发展之路，归纳珍珠产业驱动下山下湖镇乡村发展中的根植性、创新性和包容性等特征，进而探究该镇乡村“环境—经济—社会”系统的协调与可持续发展的动力机制，并讨论政策启示和规划策略。     

Estimating undisclosed earnings data

A problem with constructing regional economic models from secondary sources is that of undisclosed data. For example, the RIMS II technique for developing nonsurvey input-output models, requires disaggregated industry earnings data. County Business Patterns employment and earnings data are suppressed for industries with few firms or with a dominate firm, requiring that earnings be estimated for some industries. We examine eleven representative methods for estimating undisclosed earnings. A simple earnings ratio technique using more aggregated data from the same state is shown to provide reasonable estimates of industry earnings.The authors would like to thank Otis Gilley and Bill Workman for their helpful comments. We are greatful for financial support from the Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development.     

基于超网络的建筑工业化产业链评估模型研究

推进建筑工业化对我国实现高质量发展具有重大意义。以中国和山东省投入产出表为基础,切割建筑产业投入产出基本数据,引入双层网络模型, 从产业部门和区域两个层次量化分析山东省建筑工业化产业结构的复杂性特征。 构建了建筑工业化产业的产业-区域双层网络模型,为定量研究产业结构和区域分布提供理论基础; 设计了能科学表征产业特征、经济含义清晰且可计算的产业双层网络度量指标体系,为模型分析、科学决策提供了依据。 并以山东省为例,验证了模型的有效性,同时分析结果对于山东省建筑业发展的借鉴意义。     

Variations on a theme of dying trees

The model described above is not unique. Many voices have been raised in an attempt to bring cohesion to rural change. The ideas expressed here represent an amalgamation of many strands already in existence. The aim of the proposals is to provide a new opportunity to promote positive management of a wide range of landscape features, including sites of ecological, archaeological and agricultural importance. The need has arisen at a time when public demand for a varied, accessible landscape is increasing and when the major land‐use, agriculture, is entering a period of change. If these dynamic forces are to controlled, new positive steps need to be taken.     

Input-output analysis of agricultural production quotas

Production quotas have been one of the most influential forms of government intervention in the production activities of the agricultural sector in Japan. With this in mind, the potential effects of a policy to decrease the gross output of the agricultural sector in the economy of the Hokkaido region are evaluated using a mixed input-output model. The gross output of the agricultural sector is specified exogenously, and the potential effects of a policy to subsidize the agricultural sector are evaluated. Results reveal that the non-agricultural sectors are deleteriously affected by such output reduction when income linkages are taken into consideration. However, the benefits of subsidies to the agricultural sector effectively counterbalance the costs incurred by the non-agricultural sectors.The analyses reported herein are based on an unpublished report submitted to the Hokkaido Development Agency. The author wishes to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.