An innovative air-conditioning load forecasting model based on RBF neural network and combined residual error correction

Accurate air-conditioning load forecasting is the precondition for the optimal control and energy saving operation of HVAC systems. They have developed many forecasting methods, such as multiple linear regression (MLR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), grey model (GM) and artificial neural network (ANN), in the field of air-conditioning load prediction. However, none of them has enough accuracy to satisfy the practical demand. On the basis of these models existed, a novel forecasting method, called ‘RBF neural network (RBFNN) with combined residual error correction’, is developed in this paper. The new model adopts the advanced algorithm of neural network based on radial basis functions for the air-conditioning load forecasting, and uses the combined forecasting model, which is the combination of MLR, ARIMA and GM, to estimate the residual errors and correct the ultimate foresting results. A study case indicates that RBFNN with combined residual error correction has a much better forecasting accuracy than RBFNN itself and RBFNN with single-model correction.     

Optimization of Short Load Forecasting in Electricity Market of Iran Using Artificial Neural Networks

Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is one of the essential requirements for power systems. In this paper, two different seasonal artificial neural networks (ANNs) are designed and compared in terms of model complexity, robustness, and forecasting accuracy. Furthermore, the performance of ANN partitioning is evaluated. The first model is a daily forecasting model which is used for forecasting hourly load of the next day. The second model is composed of 24 sub-networks which are used for forecasting hourly load of the next day. In fact, the second model is partitioning of the first model. Time, temperature, and historical loads are taken as inputs for ANN models. The neural network models are based on feed-forward back propagation which are trained and tested using data from electricity market of Iran during 2003 to 2005. Results show a good correlation between actual data and ANN outcomes. Moreover, it is shown that the first designed model consisting of single ANN is more appropriate than the second model consisting of 24 distinct ANNs. Finally ANN results are compared to conventional regression models. It is observed that in most cases ANN models are superior to regression models in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).     

遗传算法优化 BP 神经网络的显示器色彩空间转换

目的基于改进遗传算法优化BP神经网络,研究对显示器色彩空间转换的预测准确性的方法。方法通过改进数据归一化处理和遗传算法的适应度函数,来优化BP神经网络的权值和阈值,以将它们的分布范围缩小,再用BP算法进行精确求解,并将该方式与常规方式作对比。结果训练优化后的BP神经网络预测模型20次,测试色块平均色差为2.9353,最小平均色差为1.9467。结论该方法大大降低了BP神经网络预测模型陷入局部极小值的可能性,对显示器色彩空间转换具有较好的非线性拟合能力和更高的预测准确性。     

基于机器学习的钛合金弹性模量预测方法研究

目的 探索一种高效可行的预测方法以提高钛合金弹性模量的预测精度,采用第一性原理计算方法与机器学习相结合的方式建立高精度的预测模型。方法 通过数据挖掘获取材料数据库中钛合金的力学性质微观结构参数,结合第一性原理计算方法构建初始数据集,并对其进行预处理,包括噪音消除、归一化及标准化,以得到高质量的数据集。同时,采用随机森林特征重要性分析法对输入参数进行筛选,去除弱相关变量以降低预测模型的复杂度。在此基础上,构建随机森林模型、支持向量机模型、BP神经网络模型及优化后的GA-BP神经网络模型,综合对比各模型的回归能力,分析误差后选出最优的算法模型。结果 最终建立了钛合金弹性模量预测模型,其中随机森林模型、支持向量机模型、BP神经网络模型、GA-BP神经网络模型的预测相关系数R分别为0.836、0.943、0.917、0.986。结论 GA-BP模型对弹性模量的预测误差基本保持在5%～7%。遗传算法可以优化BP神经网络的权值和阈值,使预测精度大幅提升。说明通过该方法可以实现钛合金弹性模量的预测,大大节省研发和实验成本,加快高性能材料的筛选。     

Adaboosting‐based dynamic weighted combination of software reliability growth models

Software reliability growth models (SRGMs) are very important for software reliability estimation and prediction and have been successfully applied in the critical airborne software. However, there is no general model which can perform well for different cases. Thus, some researchers proposed to obtain more accurate estimation and prediction than one single model by combining various individual SRGMs together. AdaBoosting is a commonly used machine learning algorithm for combining several weak predictors into a single strong predictor to significantly improve the estimating and forecasting accuracy, which may be very suitable for the combination of SRGMs. Hence, two novel AdaBoosting‐based combination approaches for improving the parametric SRGMs are presented in this paper. The first one selects several variations of one original SRGM for obtaining the self‐combination model (ASCM). The second selects several various candidate SRGMs for obtaining the multi‐combinational model (AMCM). Finally, two case studies are presented and the results show that: (1) the ASCM is fairly effective and applicable for improving the estimation and prediction performance of its corresponding original SRGM without adding any other factors and assumptions; (2) the AMCM is notably effective and applicable for combining SRGMs because it has well applicability and provides a significantly better reliability estimation and prediction power than the traditional SRGMs and also yields a better estimation and prediction power than the neural‐network‐based combinational model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于模拟退火算法优化BP神经网络的色彩空间转换

目的研究基于模拟退火算法优化BP神经网络对喷墨打印机色彩空间转换预测准确性的方法。方法通过数据归一化处理、模拟退火算法优化BP神经网络的权值和阈值,以获取它们的全局最优解,再用BP神经网络法进行色差预测。结果模拟退火算法优化BP神经网络预测模型测试15次得到色块平均色差达到2.3067,最小平均色差达到0.7892。结论该方法优化BP神经网络精度非常高,对喷墨打印机色彩空间转换具有较好的非线性拟合能力和更高的预测准确性。     

基于组合算法的金属铣削毛刺预测

利用最优权值系数,将灰色理论、人工神经网络和遗传算法有机结合,构建组合算法,依据3种数学方法建立3种组合模型：组合算术平均模型、组合平方和平均模型以及组合比例平均模型,并分别将3种组合模型应用于45钢铣削毛刺的预测．利用3个预测误差评价指标,即平方和误差指标、平均绝对误差指标和平均相对误差指标,对各模型的预测结果进行分析计算.结果表明,组合算术平均模型所得结果与实验结果取得了较好的吻合,具有较高的精度和稳定性,对于金属铣削毛刺的预测具有实际的应用价值．     

基于遗传算法和灰色神经网络的电力机车产品需求预测方法

目的 应对快速多变的市场,提前预知市场发展,制定相应的排产计划,使企业在竞争中占据先发优势。方法 目前基于灰色神经网络的预测算法,准确地预测产品需求通常需要连续且大量的样本数据,对小数据非线性系统的预测结果精确度低、可靠性差,针对这一问题,提出一种耦合遗传算法的灰色神经网络预测方法,综合灰色模型和神经网络理论,构建了面向产品订单量需求预测的灰色神经网络模型;通过电力机车产品实例分析了模型的预测性能;为解决预测过程中模型早熟收敛的问题,利用遗传算法对训练网络的权重和阈值进行了迭代优化。结论 研究结果表明,优化后产品预测模型的精确性和鲁棒性得到提高,验证了所设计方法的可行性。     

Partitioning and interpolation based hybrid ARIMA–ANN model for time series forecasting

Time series data (TSD) originating from different applications have dissimilar characteristics. Hence for prediction of TSD, diversified varieties of prediction models exist. In many applications, hybrid models provide more accurate predictions than individual models. One such hybrid model, namely auto regressive integrated moving average – artificial neural network (ARIMA–ANN) is devised in many different ways in the literature. However, the prediction accuracy of hybrid ARIMA–ANN model can be further improved by devising suitable processing techniques. In this paper, a hybrid ARIMA–ANN model is proposed, which combines the concepts of the recently developed moving average (MA) filter based hybrid ARIMA–ANN model, with a processing technique involving a partitioning–interpolation (PI) step. The improved prediction accuracy of the proposed PI based hybrid ARIMA–ANN model is justified using a simulation experiment. Further, on different experimental TSD like sunspots TSD and electricity price TSD, the proposed hybrid model is applied along with four existing state-of-the-art models and it is found that the proposed model outperforms all the others, and hence is a promising model for TSD prediction.     

基于改进深度信念网络训练的冷轧轧制力预报

在带钢冷轧过程中,轧制力预报精度直接决定板带材的轧制精度以及产品质量。传统的基于单隐层的神经网络建模方法结构简单,对复杂函数的表达能力与泛化能力都受到一定制约;轧制现场环境复杂,数据测量存在噪声干扰,都会直接影响预报精度。针对这些问题,提出一种基于非监督学习的改进深度信念网络预测模型。深层网络的构建以及去噪机制的引入可提高系统对输入数据特征学习的能力,同时采用改进的对比散度算法对网络进行训练,提高网络训练速度。最后,利用某钢厂1200mm轧机组的实测数据对模型进行检验,对比分析3种不同模型,结果表明该模型对轧制力预测的平均相对误差控制在4.5%以内,建模所需时间相比于栈式自编码网络减少26%。     

One step-ahead ANFIS time series model for forecasting electricity loads

In electric industry, electricity loads forecasting has become more and more important, because demand quantity is a major determinant in electricity supply strategy. Furthermore, accurate regional loads forecasting is one of principal factors for electric industry to improve the management performance. Recently, time series analysis and statistical methods have been developed for electricity loads forecasting. However, there are two drawbacks in the past forecasting models: (1) conventional statistical methods, such as regression models are unable to deal with the nonlinear relationships well, because of electricity loads are known to be nonlinear; and (2) the rules generated from conventional statistical methods (i.e., ARIMA), and artificial intelligence technologies (i.e., support vector machines (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN)) are not easily comprehensive for policy-maker. Based on these reasons above, this paper proposes a new model, which incorporates one step-ahead concept into adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to build a fusion ANFIS model and enhances forecasting for electricity loads by adaptive forecasting equation. The fuzzy if-then rules produced from fusion ANFIS model, which can be understood for human recognition, and the adaptive network in fusion ANFIS model can deal with the nonlinear relationships. This study optimizes the proposed model by adaptive network and adaptive forecasting equation to improve electricity loads forecasting accuracy. To evaluate forecasting performances, six different models are used as comparison models. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model is superior to the listing models in terms of mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE).     

基于遗传算法和最小二乘支持向量机的织物剪切性能预测

提出了一种基于最小二乘支持向量机的织物剪切性能预测模型,并且采用遗传算法进行最小二乘支持向量机的参数优化,将获得的样本进行归一化处理后,将其输入预测模型以得到预测结果.仿真结果表明,基于最小二乘支持向量机的预测模型比BP神经网络和线性回归方法具有更高的精度和范化能力.     

Evaluation of neural network models with generalized sensitivity analysis

A sensitivity analysis method for discovering characteristic features of the input data using neural network classification models has been devised. The sensitivity is the gradient of the neural network model response function, and because neural network models are nonlinear, the gradient depends on the point where it is evaluated. Two criteria are used for measuring the sensitivity. The first criterion calculates the sensitivity or gradient of the neural network output with respect to the average of the objects that comprise each class. The second criterion measures the average sensitivity of the class objects. The sensitivity analysis was applied to temperature-constrained cascade correlation network models and evaluated with sets of synthetic data and experimental mobility spectra. The neural network models were built using temperature-constrained cascade correlation networks (TCCCNs). A weight constraint was devised for the output units of the network models. This method implements weight decay with conjugate gradient training and yields more sensitive neural network models. Temperature-constrained hidden units furnish more sensitive network models than networks without constraints. By comparing the sensitivities of the class mean input and the mean sensitivity for all the inputs of a class, the individual input variables may be assessed for linearity. If these two sensitivities for an input variable differ by a constant factor, then that variable is modeled by a simple linear relationship. If the two sensitivities vary by a nonconstant scale factor, then the variable is modeled by higher order functions in the network. The sensitivity method was used to diagnose errors in the training data, and the test for linearity indicated a TCCCN architecture that had better predictability.     

基于粒子群算法优化 BP 神经网络的色彩空间转换

目的研究基于粒子群算法优化BP神经网络对显示器色彩空间转换的预测准确性的方法。方法主要通过数据归一化处理、改进最大限制速度、惯性常数和适应度函数来优化BP神经网络的权值和阈值,以缩小其分布范围,再用BP神经网络法进行色差预测。结果改进粒子群算法优化BP神经网络预测模型,测试20次得到色块平均色差为2.8526,最小平均色差为2.0453。结论该方法大大降低了BP神经网络预测模型陷入局部极小值的可能性,对显示器色彩空间转换具有较好的非线性拟合能力和更高的预测准确性。     

基于粒子群优化算法和BP神经网络的变频压缩机功率预测

本文针对变频压缩机的功率测量困难,测量误差大等问题,提出了一种仿真测量模型。利用粒子群算法寻找全局最优粒子,用它初始化BP神经网络的阈值和权值,测量变频压缩机的功率。本文共建立了3种仿真模进行对比,分别为BP神经网络模型、GA-BP神经网络模型和PSO-BP神经网络模型,然后分别通过3种模型的内插、蒸发温度外推和冷凝温度外推的测试方法对变频压缩机进行功率测量,对比分析其预测结果的平均相对误差和拟合程度。结果表明:基于粒子群算法优化的BP神经网络模型明显优于其他两个模型,特别是在冷凝温度外推测试中,较其他两个神经网络相对误差降低了1. 11%、2. 64%,3种测试方法下的平均相对误差均小于1%,拟合程度在0. 9以上,表明基于粒子群算法优化的BP神经网络模型对变频压缩机功率有较好的测量能力,而且有较强的泛化能力。     

膨润土塑性混凝土渗透系数的组合预测模型

在分析膨润土塑性混凝土各组分对渗透系数影响规律的基础上,将人工神经网络（ANN）与支持向量机（SVM）等方法融合使用,建立膨润土塑性混凝土渗透系数与各组分掺量之间的映射关系组合预测模型;并应用均值绝对百分率误差（MAPE）、均方根误差（RMSE）和有效系数（Er）等性能指标对预测禊趋的准确性进行对比与评价;结果表明,融合后的组合预测模型对膨润土塑性混凝土渗透系数的预测精度较高,为塑性混凝土渗透系数的预测提供了理论依据,在膨润土塑性混凝土的配合比设计及应用塑性混凝土施工等方面具有一定的参考价值。     

PCA-GRNN在综合气象短期负荷预测中的应用

为克服由气象因子较多且信息互嵌造成输入量多、预测时间长、预测精度低的缺点,引入主成分分析（PCA）提取气象因子特征量,与历史负荷数据共同作为建模对象;同时,针对BP神经网络动态性能的不足,建立基于广义回归神经网络（GRNN）的短期负荷预测模型。通过对实际电力负荷数据的预测,证明该方法与传统神经网络预测模型相比,明显提高预测精度和速度,具有实用性和有效性。     

基于主成分分析与BP网络的锚杆支护方案优选

巷道特征与锚杆支护之间可以看作是一种非线性映射关系,用一般的数学方法难以表达巷道支护方案与其影响因素之间的非线性映射关系.神经网络已广泛应用于锚杆支护方案优选,并取得较好的效果.基于单一神经网络预测锚杆支护方案存在一些不足,构建了主成分分析与BP网络相结合的巷道锚杆支护方案优选模型.利用主成分分析对神经网络的输入数据进行预处理,使输入数据减少且不相关,加快网络的收敛速度,并且预测精度均在90%以上.研究结果表明:将主成分分析与BP神经网络结合优选巷道的锚杆支护方案,具有很高的预测精度;与单一BP神经网络相比,提高了预测精度．     

Bayesian regularisation neural network based on artificial intelligence optimisation

Stock prediction is generally considered to be challenging and known for its high noise and strong nonlinearities in financial time series analysis. However, current forecasting models ignore the importance of model parameter optimisation and the use of recent data. In this article, a novel forecasting approach with a Bayesian-regularised artificial neural networks (BR-ANN) was proposed. The weight of the proposed model (BR-ANN) is determined by the particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm. Daily market prices and financial technical indicators are utilised as inputs to predict the one day future closing price of the Shanghai (in China) composite index. The Bayesian-regularised network uses a probabilistic nature for the network weights and can reduce the potential for over-fitting and over-training. Our empirical study and the results of our K-line theory analysis indicate that PSO is determined to be an effective algorithm to optimise the parameters of the Bayesian neural network compared with other well-known prediction algorithms. In particular, the PSO model is more reliable than the simple Bayesian regularisation neural network near the local maximum value.     

阀门内漏识别及内漏速率量化技术研究

阀门作为天然气管线的关键部件,若发生内漏会带来经济损失及生产安全隐患。因此,阀门内漏的有效诊断及内漏速率的准确量化具有重大意义。针对复杂背景噪声下内漏诊断效率不高的问题,以内漏信号和非泄漏噪声信号的功率谱密度图作为输入,构建了阀门内漏卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network, CNN)识别模型;针对物理理论及浅层网络模型在多工况阀门内漏数据上存在量化误差大的问题,构建了阀门内漏速率深度信念网络(deep belief network, DBN)量化回归模型,并与支持向量回归机、BP神经网络等模型进行了对比研究。研究结果表明:所构建模型的内漏识别准确率及内漏速率量化平均绝对百分比误差分别为99%和9.101 2,证实了所构建模型的高效性,为阀门内漏诊断与评价开拓了新的研究方向。