拓宽思路,科学评价水资源量——以渭河流域蓝水绿水资源量评价为例

对蓝水和绿水的内涵进行了梳理,并对其评价方法进行了综合分析,认为水文模型法是同时评价蓝水和绿水资源量时空变化特征的有效方法。在此基础上以渭河流域为例,构建了渭河流域分布式水文模型SWAT,并采用SUFI-2算法进行参数敏感性分析、参数率定、模型验证以及不确定性分析。根据模型输出结果,分别在水文响应单元、控制流域以及城市/地区尺度上对渭河流域近50年来的蓝水资源量、绿水流和绿水储量进行了综合评价,以期为西北干旱缺水地区的水资源规划与管理以及水资源高效利用提供科学依据。     

面向总量闭合的水资源配置模型与应用

水资源总量控制是水资源管理的主要手段,针对区域来水、取用水分开统计,导致区域来水、取用耗排水、断面出境水量不闭合问题,本文从水量控制核算的角度出发,构建基于水循环转化的水资源配置模型,通过模拟区域水资源取用耗排过程下的水循环过程,以区域来水和出境断面水量双向控制方法核算区域水量取用情况。以天津市为例,在全境多年平均来水42.1亿m~3(其中外调水14.7亿m~3)情景下,2020年水平年天津市取用水、耗水和排水等总量闭合控制阈值分别为38.25、22.0和16.25亿m~3,出境水量为22.1亿m~3,根据水资源实际管理需求,模型给出了各区县不同水源和行业相应的控制阈值,研究成果可为水资源消耗双控行动、最严格水资源管理和节水型社会建设提供科学支撑。     

Sustainable Development and Management of Water Resources for Urban Water Supply in Hong Kong

Abstract

Hong Kong, now a Special Administrative Region of China, is a very special and unique place in the world. Although the territory is located in the humid subtropics, local water resources are very limited because of its geographical setting and physical environment. Hong Kong's urban water supply has its uniqueness and has gone through a history of developing local resources and transferring water from the East River (Dongjiang) basin in mainland China over the past half century. This paper aims to present the experience and challenges in developing water supplies and managing water resources in Hong Kong. First, the availability of local water resources is evaluated in the context of the territory's geographical setting. Second, the approaches adopted for developing urban water supply from local resources and more importantly, by making use of water imported from the Dongjiang, are presented and reviewed. Finally, a number of sustainability issues in Hong Kong's urban water supply are addressed with an emphasis on the problems and prospect of the Dongjiang water resources in the future     

论水资源在西北大开发中的战略地位

水资源是生态环境建设、工农业生产和经济结构调整的基础，西北地区水资源的现状是地均、人均占有量少，地区间分布不均，年际、年内变化大，且存在着利用率低、浪费严重等突出问题，西北地区是中国西部开发的主战场，水在西北大开发中至关重要，具有牵一发而动全身的作用，集水、节水是目前较为有效的对区内水资源合理利用的方法，但由于区内水资源本身的有限性，难于治本，西北地区水资源的根本改善应主要依赖于引水工程，特别是大西线南水北调工程的实施。     

水足迹视角下辽宁省春玉米生育期水土资源匹配特征研究

随着气候变化及种植结构调整,农业水土资源配置状况发生改变,研究农业水土资源匹配特征对农业可持续发展具有重要意义。基于作物生产水足迹视角,采用广义农业水土资源匹配系数的计算方法,对 1985—2018年辽宁省春玉米生育期的水土资源匹配特征进行分析。结果表明：1985—2018 年间辽宁省春玉米农业水土资源匹配系数变化波动明显,总体以 14 m³/（hm²·a）增长,多年平均农业水土资源匹配系数值为 5733 m³/hm²。同时,1985—2018 年间辽宁省春玉米农业水土资源匹配状况呈现向好趋势,东部农业水土资源匹配良好的地区增多,西北部农业水土资源匹配较差的范围缩小。未来辽宁省玉米种植结构调整,应立足各地区农业水土资源匹配特征,构建水土资源空间均衡的农业生产体系。     

中国水资源及水生态安全评价

从水资源及水生态安全的内涵出发,构建了区域水资源及水生态安全评价指标体系。考虑我国的地域状况,根据水资源的丰、平、缺情况和经济水平(发达、欠发达)的6种任意组合,分别筛选评价指标,提出了分区域的评价标准和指标权重。以31个省级行政区为单元,对中国水资源及水生态安全状况进行了评价。结果表明:水资源及水生态状况没有安全的,良好的有10个区,一般的有10个区,较差的有10个区,极差的有1个区。     

Water footprints of nations: Water use by people as a function of their consumption pattern

The water footprint shows the extent of water use in relation to consumption of people. The water footprint of a country is defined as the volume of water needed for the production of the goods and services consumed by the inhabitants of the country. The internal water footprint is the volume of water used from domestic water resources; the external water footprint is the volume of water used in other countries to produce goods and services imported and consumed by the inhabitants of the country. The study calculates the water footprint for each nation of the world for the period 1997–2001. The USA appears to have an average water footprint of 2480,m³/cap/yr, while China has an average footprint of 700,m³/cap/yr. The global average water footprint is 1240,m³/cap/yr. The four major direct factors determining the water footprint of a country are: volume of consumption (related to the gross national income); consumption pattern (e.g. high versus low meat consumption); climate (growth conditions); and agricultural practice (water use efficiency).     

Appraisal and Assessment of World Water Resources

Abstract

A critical analysis of the present situation on the global water resources assessment is made. Basic data and methodological approaches used by the author for the assessment and prediction of water resources, water use and water availability on the global scale are briefly described. On the basis of data generalization of the world hydrological network new data are given on the dynamics of renewable water resources of the continents, physiographic and economic regions, selected countries as well as on the river water inflow to the world ocean. The results of the assessments for the 20^th century and for the future before 2010–2025 on the water supply for municipal, industrial and agricultural needs as well as an additional evaporation from reservoirs are presented. Loads on water resources and water availability depending on socio-economic and phisiographic factors are analyzed; regions of water scarcity and water resources deficit are discovered. Possible ways of water supply improvement and elimination of water resources deficit in different regions and countries are discussed     

Probable water crisis in Thrace and Istanbul in the near future and a sustainable strategy to overcome it

Abstract

The Thrace Region of Turkey, a passageway from Asia to Europe, which includes the most populated city of Istanbul, is threatened by a water crisis in the very near future. The population of Istanbul alone is forecast to reach 30 millions by the year 2025, requiring 3 billion m³ of water, nearly equal to the total fresh water resources of the region, 3.4 billion m³. In this study, we consider not only the proportion of the available water resources to be allocated for each competing sector, civil, agriculture and industry, but also attempt to outline integrated water management strategies for each sector. The potential of small earth reservoirs, more than 1,500 in number, is emphasised as a way to develop fresh water resources. Water saving policies in the cities and ethics for water use are also briefly discussed.     

中国2001年-2010年水资源量变化及其影响分析

根据2001年-2010年《中国水资源公报》的水资源量与第二次水资源调查评价的45年系列成果,分析了中国近10年水资源的变化情况,认为:通过论证全国一级区的45年的天然径流量及其延长系列,表明45年系列成果仍具有一定的代表性;从全国水资源一级区上看,大部分区域偏枯,仅有淮河区和西北诸河区偏丰,地表水资源量的丰枯分布情况决定了水资源总量的丰枯分布;近10年,气候变化和人类活动使北方地区水资源情势进一步恶化,枯水时段进一步延长,北少南多的水资源分布格局进一步加剧。     

Water Resource Availability in Three Catchments of Swaziland under Expected Climate Change

Abstract

The greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆) concentrations in the atmosphere have increased very much since the industrial revolution. The greenhouse gas effect has been projected to cause a global average temperature increase on the order of 1.4 to 5.8°C over the period of 1990 to 2100. The global average annual precipitation is projected to increase during the 21^st century due to the greenhouse effect. The impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the three catchments of Swaziland (Komati, Mbuluzi and Ngwavuma) has been evaluated using General Circulation Model results (rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, air temperature etc.) as inputs to a rainfall runoff model. Three General Circulation Models (GCMs) namely: Canadian Climate Change Equilibrium (CCC-EQ); Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and United Kingdom Transient Resilient (UKTR) were found appropriate for use to project the temperature and precipitation changes for Swaziland for year 2075. This information was used to generate the temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration values for the three catchments for year 2075 which was input into a calibrated WatBall rainfall runoff model. Simulation results without taking into consideration of water use projections show that there will be high flows during the summer months but low flows during the winter months. Simulation results after taking into consideration of water use projections show a water deficit from June to September in both the Komati, and Ngwavuma catchments and a water deficit from May to September in the Mbuluzi catchment. This means that the environmental water needs and Swaziland's water release obligation in the three catchments to South Africa and Mozambique will not be met during the winter months under expected climate change conditions.     

关于解决西部地区水资源问题的建议

我国西北地区是世界上士旱缺水最严重的地区之一，西南地区的水资源虽然丰富，但开发利用困难，工程型缺水严重。解决西部水资源问题重点应抓好节约用水和生态环境建设，合理开发和保护水资源，制定优惠政策，大力开发西部水电资源等，针对西部水资源开发利用情况及存在的问题，建议在西部大开发中要认真搞好西部水资源总体规划，加强政策法规建设和管理，按照节水型经济社会的要求，加大结构调整的力量。     

西部开发、南水北调和水资源配置的综合思考

西部开发、南水北调和水资源合理配置是我国新世纪初的重大建设任务.西部开发是涉及全国、贯串古今的大课题;南水北调是西部开发和合理配置水资源的重要途径和设施;水资源合理配置是调水决策的基础和规划工作的核心.文章论述三者相互连通结合的关系,阐述现代水利科学技术对支持保证重大建设成功的必要性和迫切性.     

加拿大的可持续水管理改革及其对我国构建“资源水利”体系的借鉴意义

198 7年后 ,加拿大的水利工作进入了可持续水管理的新阶段 .其特点是 :以构筑支撑社会可持续发展的水系统为水管理目标 ,以确保当代人和下代人用水权的平等为水管理道德理念 ,以水不仅是可供人类消费的物质资源 ,而且是生态系统的重要组成部分为水管理准则 ;通过将原来分布于政府诸多机构的水管理权集中于一个或少数几个机构的方式重组水管理机构 ;水管理机构普遍把生态系统方法作为可持续水管理的一种基本方法 ,将水与生态环境、社会经济等联在一起 ,将水管理与土地、森林等环境资源的管理联在一起 .中国今天的水管理工作不仅要为当代人服务 ,也要为后代人服务 .为实现我国水资源的可持续利用 ,在构建“资源水利”体系过程中 ,应通过重组水管理机构适当集中水政管理权 ;要重视将水资源的管理与其它资源的管理联系在一起 ,在规划和配置水资源时 ,多考虑生态环境和社会经济因素     

Estimation of Parameters of a Conceptual Water Balance Model for Ungauged Catchments

The problem of parameter estimation constitutes the largest obstacle to successful application of conceptual catchment models in ungauged catchments. This paper investigates the usefulness of a conceptual water balance model for simulating river flow from catchments covering a wide variety of climatic and physiographic areas. The model is a 6-parameter water balance model which was applied to 26 seasonally snow covered catchments in central Sweden. The model was calibrated on a group of catchments and the calibrated parameter values related to physical catchment indices. The relationships were tested by comparing observed and simulated runoff records from 4 catchments that were not contained in the regression analysis. The results show that the model can be satisfactorily applied to ungauged basins in the study region. In order to test the physical relevance of the model to a wider set of conditions, the model was modified by excluding the snow routine part. The resulting model and the same technique were tested on 24 catchments taken from northern Belgium. The verification results were found to be satisfactory.     

中国21世纪水危机与节水

中国已面临水危机问题，其中突出的问题是干旱缺水。缺水已成为影响国民经济可持续发展的瓶颈因素。中国水资源的地区和时空分布都不平衡，水资源的人均、亩均水平很低，目前人均拥有的水资源量位居世界第１０９位，已被列入贫水国家之列。预计到２０５０年，水的供需矛盾将更加突出，这就迫使我们一方面要开源，增加供水量；另一方面要节水，减少水资源的消耗。在节水中，农业节水是节水的战略重点。     

Socio-Economic Impact of Evaporation Losses from Reservoirs Under Past, Current and Future Water Availability Scenarios in the Semi-Arid Segura Basin

This study assesses evaporation losses from water reservoirs in the semi-arid Segura basin (south-east Spain), one of the most water stressed European catchments. These losses are evaluated from both the hydrologic and economic perspectives under different water availability scenarios that are based on water policy trends and climate change predictions. We take a multidisciplinary approach to the analysis, combining energy balance models to assess the effect of climate change on evaporation from water bodies, Class-A pan data and pan coefficients to determine evaporation loss on a regional scale, and non-linear mathematical programming modelling to simulate the economic impact of water use and allocation in the basin. Our results indicate that water availability could be reduced by up to 40 % in the worst-case scenario, with an economic impact in the 32–36 % range, depending on the indicator in question. The total annual evaporation loss from reservoirs ranges from 6.5 % to 11.7 % of the water resources available for irrigation in the basin, where evaporation from small reservoirs is more than twice that from large dams. The economic impact of such losses increases with water scarcity, ranging from 4.3 % to 12.3 % of the value of agricultural production, 4.0 % to 12.0 % of net margin, 5.8 % to 10.7 % of the irrigated area, and 5.4 % to 13.5 % of agricultural employment. Results illustrate the importance of evaporation losses from reservoirs in this region and the marked upward trend for future scenarios. Besides, they highlight the extent of the impact of climate change on future water resources availability and use in southern Europe.     

基于SWAT的沁河流域水资源生态足迹计算及承载程度分析

水资源生态足迹能够反映人类发展对自然界水资源的压力,明确流域水资源承载状况可为生态环境保护、经济社会发展和水资源科学管理提供决策依据,对推动流域生态文明建设和高质量发展具有重要意义。以沁河流域为例,借助水资源生态足迹模型,利用SWAT模型输出结果计算各子流域水资源生态足迹,并评估沁河流域水资源承载状况。结果表明：2010—2016年沁河流域水资源量多年平均值为6.17×10⁸ m³,主要受到降水量影响;各子流域水资源生态压力指数均大于1,说明沁河流域水资源处于不可承载状态,供需矛盾突出;2010—2016年水资源承载状况虽有所改善,但仍处于不可持续利用状态。研究结果可为沁河流域水资源科学管理提供参考依据,同时为其他流域尺度上的水资源生态足迹计算提供新思路。     

Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in Central Sweden

This article describes investigationsinto the effects of climate change on flow regimes oftwenty-five catchments (from 6 to 1293 km²) incentral Sweden. Hydrological responses of fifteenhypothetical climate change scenarios (e.g.combinations of T = +1, +2 and +4 °C andP = 0, ± 10%, ± 20%) were simulated by a conceptual monthly water balance model. The results suggest thatall the hypothetical climate change scenarios wouldcause major decreases in winter snow accumulation.Significant increase of winter flow and decrease ofspring and summer runoff were resulted from mostscenarios. Attendant changes in actualevapotranspiration were also examined for all climatechange scenarios. Despite the changes in seasonaldistribution of evapotranspiration, the change inannual total evapotranspiration was relatively smallwith the maximum change of 23% compared with the 76%for mean annual snow water equivalent changes and 52%for mean annual runoff changes. Such hydrologicresults would have significant implications on futurewater resources design and management.     

西部水资源开发若干战略问题探讨

介绍中国西部地区的水土资源情况 ,认为西部开发的成败在水 .探讨西部水资源开发的三个主要问题 :①西部水资源开发必须实行可持续发展战略 ;②借鉴国内外的经验教训 ,事先研究保护水资源对策 ,重视与水有关的战略问题的研究 ,重视研究水资源开发对生态环境的影响 ,做好西部水资源开发规划 ;③利用高新科技对水资源进行有效管理 .