Valuing distributed energy resources: Combined heat and power and the modern grid

In this paper we examine how decision makers can more precisely assess the costs of disruptive weather events and the value of resilient distributed energy systems such as combined heat and power (CHP). CHP makes up a small percentage of the energy infrastructure in the United States despite its substantial efficiency and resilience benefits. In part this is because the resilience value of CHP is not fully accounted for in energy infrastructure project cost screenings. To capture this benefit in investment decisions, we propose a framework for a metric called the Distributed Energy Resource Resiliency Value (DERRV) and discuss how such a metric might be applied to CHP.     

电力勘测设计行业经济增加值分析研究

经济增加值(economic value added,EVA)作为一种绩效评价指标在理论上更具有科学性,EVA指标在传统会计利润的基础上进一步剔除资本成本的影响。通过对电力勘测设计行业所属企业经济增加值分析和与其它行业经济增加值的对比分析,提出经济增加值EVA是全面衡量企业生产经营真正盈利或创造价值的一个指标,建议电力勘测设计企业能够通过经济增加值考核,着眼于企业的长远发展,进行能给企业带来长远利益的投资决策,保持企业可持续发展。     

Valuation of distributed energy resources in active distribution networks

In concert with the transformation of conventional passive power distribution system, distributed energy resources (DERs) have progressively become participants in the provision of electricity services in active distribution networks (ADNs). In this paper, we propose a systematic valuation process to quantify the value of DERs in the ADN context. The paper first provides comprehensive insights into the impacts of DERs on ADN and the society as a whole. Given the technological, locational, and temporal diversity of DERs, a two-part scheme is developed to value and compensate DER portfolios proposed by customers and independent third parties. In particular, DERs are valued for their benefits and costs in both short and long terms. An integrated resource planning model is formulated to quantify the value of a given DER portfolio to be installed, where bi-level optimization techniques are applied to coordinate decisions on ADN planning and operations. In order to determine the short-term operation benefits of the DER portfolio on a continuous basis, a retail market operation model is developed based on peer-to-peer energy transactions among prosumers, when the impacts of DERs on ADN operations are monetized by distribution locational marginal prices. It is finally concluded in the paper that the proposed valuation scheme will not only contribute to the proactive investment of DERs in ADN but also help enhance the role of DERs in offering affordable, reliable, resilient and sustainable electricity services to customers.     

考虑条件风险价值和阶梯碳交易的综合能源系统优化调度

为进一步提升综合能源系统环境效益,减少新能源出力不确定性所带来的潜在风险,提出了计及条件风险价值(conditional value at risk, CVaR)以及阶梯碳交易的综合能源系统优化调度模型。考虑到系统风电和光伏出力不确定性可能带来的影响,采用条件风险价值量度不确定性带来的潜在风险,并将碳捕获技术、电转气设备以及阶梯式碳交易机制引入系统调度模型,构建了综合考虑系统运行成本和碳交易成本的优化调度目标函数,由于所建立模型为混合整数规划问题,采用CPLEX求解器进行求解,设置4种场景进行验证分析,算例表明所提模型可有效减少二氧化碳排放,在兼顾经济性和环境性的同时引入CVaR,可避免由于忽略风光不确定性所带来的较为乐观的调度结果,使系统最终调度结果更为合理。     

A Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Benefits of a Global Earth Observation System of Systems

The aim of the Global Earth Observation System-of-Systems (GEOSS) is to improve the information available to decision makers, at all levels, relating to human health and safety, protection of the global environment, the reduction of losses from natural disasters, and achieving sustainable development. Specifically, GEOSS proposes that better international cooperation in the collection, interpretation, and sharing of Earth observation information is an important and cost-effective mechanism for achieving this aim. While there is a widespread intuition that this proposition is correct, at some point the following question needs to be answered: how much additional investment in Earth observation (and specifically, in its international integration) is enough? This leads directly to some challenging subsidiary questions, such as how can the benefits of Earth observation be assessed? What are the incremental costs of GEOSS? Are there societal benefit areas where the return on investment is higher than in others? The Geo-Bene Project has developed a “benefit chain” concept as a framework for addressing these questions. The basic idea is that an incremental improvement in the observing system (including its data collection, interpretation and information-sharing aspects) will result in an improvement in the quality of decisions based on that information. In turn, this will lead to better societal outcomes, which have a value. This incremental value must be judged against the incremental cost of the improved observation system. Since in many cases there will be large uncertainties in the estimation of both the costs and the benefits, and it may not be possible to express them in comparable monetary terms, we show how order-of-magnitude approaches and a qualitative understanding of the shape of the cost and benefit curves can help guide rational investment decisions in Earth Observation Systems.      

Engineering Design and Social Value

Because of the exponential growth of science and technology, the engineering student cannot hope to take more than a small sub-set of the many engineering courses available to him. The question often arises about the degree to which engineering students should find room in their cramped study schedule for work in the humanities, the social sciences, and other nonengineering topics. The engineer is faced with making value decisions in the realistic practice of his profession. In this paper, it is shown that making value decisions is inherent in the design process itself. It is also shown that the engineer's position in modem society is often at the right hand of major decision makers. Since many engineers are in a position where they cannot avoid sharing responsibility for decisions affecting social, political, and economic change, serious training in these areas appears desirable.     

基于物元模型的风光电源规划风险评价

在电源规划设计中,为给工程投资决策者提供可靠的风险评价决策,针对风光电源规划风险建立风险评价指标体系。提出了基于物元模型的风光电源规划风险评价,该模型利用层次分析法得到主观权值,再利用熵权法对主观权值进行修正,较好地将专家经验与定量计算相结合,合理地处理了不确定性和专家判断的模糊性;利用可拓集理论的关联度函数可以将定性指标定量化,方便计算。最后通过电源规划实例进行验证分析,结果表明该模型正确可行。     

电建企业物资集约化管理信息平台建立与应用

针对公司物资管理仍局限于各单位独立实施,物资数据标准、管理模式不统一和不能对各单位数据信息进行有效的统计分析及决策的现状,通过现代化信息技术手段,建立纵向贯通、横向集成的物资信息化管理系统平台,加强公司物资集约化管理,保障工程建设的物资需求,有效降低企业成本。系统涵盖需求计划、采购管理、仓储管理等物资管理的全过程。系统的应用实现了管理资源的有效整合,规范了公司物资管理流程,提高了物资管理体系的运转效率,增强了物资管控能力,满足了物资管理集约化、标准化、系统化的需要,取得了明显的管理效益和经济效益。     

备用服务A-S定价方法研究

在计划管理体制下,发电企业所提供的备用服务是无偿的;在较完善的电力市场机制下,则要通过科学、合理的备用服务定价来调动发电企业提供备用服务的积极性。该文提出一种新的基于备用容量成本和效益评估的备用服务定价方法——备用服务Aumann-Shapley定价法。该方法对电能量和备用服务的共有成本和效益进行基于Aumann- Shapley值的分配,并在此基础上,确定竞争性的电能量市场环境下的备用服务价格,建立计及备用服务Aumann- Shapley价格的电能量市场和备用市场联合优化模型,同时分析了备用服务Aumann-Shapley价格对发电商竞争策略的影响。备用服务的Aumann-Shapley定价方法与我国现行的电力市场模式相适应,并为制定电力市场环境下的辅助服务定价机制提供了一种新思路。     

Contract with America: costing the earth?

As part of their “Contract with America”, Republican lawmakers in the United States Congress have been attempting to reform the country's health, safety, and environmental legislation through the application of risk assessments and cost-benefit analyses. Their “Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Act of 1995” was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives in early 1995 but then stalled in the Senate. The bill would require that government agencies undertake a full risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis before implementing any major regulation. The rationale embodied in the bill is to “provide more cost-effective and cost-reasonable protection to human health and the environment” by using “scientifically objective and unbiased” consideration of risks, costs, and benefits as a basis for decision-making. This raises the question of whether environmental and health costs and benefits can be assessed in a scientifically objective manner. Environmental controversy arises because different groups of people have varying appreciations of the environment and what it is worth. Under the bill, costs and benefits would be quantified as much as possible. The reduction of political values to numbers enables such analyses to appear to be scientifically objective when they are not. “Numbers carry an unwarranted authority” because they are associated with rationality and neutrality. Asking economists to assign numbers to values, as this bill would involve, is unlikely to resolve value conflicts. But it will give more influence to the values of one group of people-the economists and those who employ them     

基于AHP-TOPSIS的电力能效项目综合评价

在电力能效项目中普遍面临着如何对实施价值及效果进行客观评价的问题。为此,本文提出了一套系统的电力能效项目综合评价模型。针对已有研究仅从单个参与主体或侧面评价电力能效项目,缺乏整体性的问题,通过深入分析项目各相关参与主体的成本效益情况,从电网运行、环境效益、经济效益、资源利用效率4个方面构建了具有多层次及多维度特点的电力能效项目综合评价指标体系。在此基础上,针对层次分析法(AHP)过于依赖决策者主观经验的问题,提出AHP与TOPSIS相结合的电力能效项目综合评价方法。最后,利用张家口市某实际系统作为算例,验证所提模型的合理与可行性。本文提出的电力能效项目综合评价方法能够为能效工程的科学评价及决策提供有益的理论参考。     

脱硝设备入口NOx浓度经济值的控制

介绍了应用最为广泛的低NO_x空气分级燃烧技术的间接运行费用与锅炉尾部烟气脱硝设备（脱硝设备）消耗还原剂的直接运行费用的计算方法,建立了两者配套应用时锅炉NO_x减排总费用的关系式;并按照NO_x减排总费用最小的原则,将脱硝设备入口NO_x浓度作为变量,提出了两者配套应用时脱硝设备入口必然存在NO_x浓度经济值的观点。主要结论为：脱硝设备入口NO_x浓度经济值是合理分配炉内空气分级燃烧技术的间接运行费用与脱硝设备直接运行费用的关键参数,NO_x浓度只有在该经济值下,NO_x减排的总费用才是最低的。     

新排污收费政策的经济性分析

以国家出台《排污费征收使用管理条例》,加大污染控制力度为背景,以评价新排污收费政策的经济性为目的,提出了管制成本和管制收益的计量问题。管制成本是指在新排污收费政策下火电厂SO2的排污总成本,它包括安装运行脱硫装置的成本和每年缴纳的排污费两部分,它的计量主要是运用技术经济学的净年值法;管制收益是指因为火电厂安装脱硫装置,减排SO2使公众获得的社会收益,它的计量主要是运用大气污染健康危险度评价和生命价值评估等方法。运用以上方法统一了计算口径,通过比较年平均成本和年收益来判别新排污收费政策的经济性。得到的结论是出台新收费政策造成的全社会净收益是大于零的,即出台新排污收费政策是经济的,并针对新政策的实施提出一些建议。     

Uncertainty analysis for bulk power systems reliability evaluation using Taylor series and nonparametric probability density estimation

The uncertainties in reliability evaluation model are fundamentally classified into aleatory and epistemic types. Aleatory uncertainty arises from the intrinsic randomness associated with a physical system, such as components stochastic failure and repair process. Epistemic uncertainty, on the other hand, results from an incomplete or inaccurate scientific understanding of the underlying process, such as component reliability parameters uncertainty. It’s significant for risk based decision to distinguish the two kinds of uncertainties and quantify their impacts on reliability analysis. In literatures, most of papers focused on aleatory uncertainty, and only a few of them discussed the epistemic uncertainty. This paper is aimed to address uncertainty analysis of reliability indices considering the randomness of reliability parameters. Two goals are achieved in this paper. Firstly, the reliability indices are approximated through Taylor series with high efficiency after component parameters change, and its accuracy is compared with rerunning reliability evaluation. Secondly, to uncover the uncertainty propagation from input reliability parameters level to reliability evaluation output level, two methods, i.e. Taylor series Approximation and Monte Carlo simulation combined with nonparametric probability density estimation are proposed. Results obtained for the RBTS and IEEE-RTS79 power systems are presented and the validity of the proposed methods is verified.     

Influence of the Emissions Trading Scheme on generation scheduling

The paper investigates the effects of emissions constraints and Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on the generation scheduling outcome. ETS is a cap-and-trade market mechanism that has been introduced in European Union in order to facilitate CO₂ emissions management. This scheme gives generators certain amount of CO₂ allowances which they can use to cover emissions produced during energy generation. In a current setting, most of the allowances are given for free. However, under ETS generators also have an opportunity to buy and sell CO₂ allowances on the market. Since generation power outputs are bounded by the amount of CO₂ emissions that they are allowed to produce over time, it is becoming increasingly important for generating units to manage their allocations in the most profitable way and decide when and how much of permissions to spent to produce electricity. The method proposed here allows for modeling of this new limitation by including costs of buying and selling of CO₂ allowance in the generation scheduling procedure. It also introduces additional emissions constraints in the problem formulation. Although CO₂ permissions and energy are traded in separate markets, the proposed formulation permits analysis on how emission caps and emission market prices can influence market outcome. The method is illustrated on a 5-unit system. Given examples compare (i) a base-case when all generators have made a decision to use portions of their total free allocations that do not cause any shortfall during the investigated time period; (ii) two cases when the least expensive generators’ decisions on the amount of free allowances they are willing to use during the considered period are insufficient. In all cases generators also submit prices at which they expect to be able to “top-up” or sell allowances on the market, however, only in the second and third case the “buying” option becomes active and affects generation scheduling and total costs.In addition, the paper investigates how aggregation of emissions allowances of generators belonging to the same company can affect market clearing.     

可靠性成本/效益分析方法在实际电网中的应用

利用可靠性成本/效益分析方法可以有效地处理好电网供电可靠性与电网建设经济性两者之间的关系。从工程实用角度阐述了可靠性成本和可靠性效益的各部分组成及计算方法,在对输电网可靠性进行定量评估的基础上,将可靠性成本/效益分析方法应用于实际电网。对华东某地区2005年、2010年以及2015年的220 kV和500 kV电网规划方案进行了分析计算,利用改进的产电比法估算各年份电网的缺电成本,分析比较了各年份电网扩容建设后在供电可靠性和成本/效益方面的差异。研究结果对供电网规划与建设具有参考价值。     

输电网合作投资费用的计算与分摊

电力市场环境下,输电费用的计算和分摊成为必须解决的问题之一。而此时各发电厂和用户都将成为独立行为的个体,他们具有合作的潜力以降低成本或获得最大利益。利用输电网的合作特性．给出了由发电厂投资修建输电网的计算方法,并提出结合合作博弈理论,采用核心、核仁、夏普利值三种方法将成本分摊到各个用户。     

An approximate reasoning approach for optimal dynamic dispatch ofthermal generating units including auxiliary control

Fuzzy set theory is applied to decision-making in the optimal generation dispatch of thermal generating units. Operational requirements such as unit auxiliary start-up and shutdown create discrete zones of generation output. Plant operators are required to switch units dynamically from one output zone to another in order to keep track of the changing load. The problem arises when making the decision to switch zones for dynamic load dispatch, because of complicated operational conditions. The authors apply approximate reasoning in order to coordinate multiple system requirements and to make effective zone-switching decisions. Membership functions are introduced to measure generation-load balance, fuel cost, and time to stay in a zone. Approximate reasoning using these indices yields information concerning compatibility of output zones. Model analysis is used to demonstrate the flexibility and improved man-machine interface of the approach     

供电营业网点布局优化

渠道管理的优化完善是提升客户服务能力的关键,随着客户消费习惯的转变及信息技术的发展,营业网点的布局优化已成为各个行业面临的重要课题。借鉴最小距离模型的思路,将模型优化为求解营业范围完全覆盖客户的前提下,客户满意度相对最高的最优营业网点布局,并以河源市为例,进行实证研究,为供电企业降本增效和资源调配提供决策支持。     

基于场景法和寿命损耗的储能优化配置

风电出力的时间特性是制约风电消纳的重要因素之一。文中以提高风电利用率为主要目的,利用电池储能消纳系统弃风,并分析储能在运行过程中的带来的诸多效益,如风电并网效益,环保效益等。依据风速时序特性生成大量场景并结合基于KD距离的场景削减技术,综合考虑各效益项及储能成本,获得具有普适性的综合收益,并以此为目标构建模型,优化储能的容量配置。文中提出互斥技术优化储能的运行策略,通过引入0-1辅助变量,计及运行过程中储能的充放电功率和越限功率的相互关联特性,将表征储能运行策略的分段函数线性化,从而显著的缩小系统的计算时间。并通过算例验证所提方法的有效性。