Probabilistic Models for Modulus of Elasticity of Self-Consolidated Concrete: Bayesian Approach

Current models of the modulus of elasticity, E, of concrete recommended by the American Concrete Institute and the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials are derived for normally vibrated concrete (NVC). Because self-consolidated concrete (SCC) mixtures differ from NVC in the quantities and types of constituent materials, supplementary cementing materials, and chemical admixtures, the current models, may not take into consideration the complexity of SCC, and thus they may predict the E of SCC inaccurately. Although some authors recommend specific models to predict E of SCC, they include only a single variable of assumed importance, namely, the design compressive strength of concrete, fc′. However, there are other parameters that may need to be accounted for while developing a prediction model for E of SCC. In this paper, a Bayesian variable selection method is used to identify the significant parameters in predicting the E of SCC, and more accurate models for E are generated using these variables. The models have a parsimonious parametrization for ease of use in practice and properly account for the prevailing uncertainties.     

Model Selection in Applied Science and Engineering: A Decision-Theoretic Approach

Mathematical models are developed and used to study the properties of complex systems in just about every area of applied science and engineering. Information on the system being modeled is, in general, incomplete, so that there may be two or more models consistent with the available information. The collection of these models is called the class of candidate models. A decision-theoretic method is developed for selecting the optimal member from the collection. The optimal model depends on the available information, the class of candidate models, and the model use. The candidate models may be deterministic or random. Classical methods for model selection, including the method of maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, are briefly reviewed. These methods ignore model use and require data to be available. In addition, examples are used to show that classical methods for model selection can be unreliable in the sense that they can deliver unsatisfactory models when data is limited. The proposed decision-theoretic method for model selection does not have these limitations. The method accounts for model use via a utility function. This feature is especially important when modeling high-risk systems where the consequences of using an inappropriate model for the system can be disastrous.     

Bayesian Model Updating Using Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation with Application to Structural Dynamic Models with Many Uncertain Parameters

In recent years, Bayesian model updating techniques based on measured data have been applied to system identification of structures and to structural health monitoring. A fully probabilistic Bayesian model updating approach provides a robust and rigorous framework for these applications due to its ability to characterize modeling uncertainties associated with the underlying structural system and to its exclusive foundation on the probability axioms. The plausibility of each structural model within a set of possible models, given the measured data, is quantified by the joint posterior probability density function of the model parameters. This Bayesian approach requires the evaluation of multidimensional integrals, and this usually cannot be done analytically. Recently, some Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods have been developed to solve the Bayesian model updating problem. However, in general, the efficiency of these proposed approaches is adversely affected by the dimension of the model parameter space. In this paper, the Hybrid Monte Carlo method is investigated (also known as Hamiltonian Markov chain method), and we show how it can be used to solve higher-dimensional Bayesian model updating problems. Practical issues for the feasibility of the Hybrid Monte Carlo method to such problems are addressed, and improvements are proposed to make it more effective and efficient for solving such model updating problems. New formulae for Markov chain convergence assessment are derived. The effectiveness of the proposed approach for Bayesian model updating of structural dynamic models with many uncertain parameters is illustrated with a simulated data example involving a ten-story building that has 31 model parameters to be updated.     

Bayesian Belief Network Model for Decision Making in Highway Maintenance: Case Studies

This paper presents two case studies that were conducted to illustrate the functionality and application of a decision support system for predicting the influence of decisions made by state highway agencies regarding important work zone project variables such as work window, work zone length, lane closure strategy, and contract incentives on the cost, duration, quality, safety, and public satisfaction of a particular project under consideration. The first case study describes in detail the operation and function of the three major levels of the proposed framework using a completed project, whereas the second case study provides an opportunity for the application of the decision support system to a work zone project in the planning stages using the input of the actual decision maker for the project.     

Stochastic Analysis of a Single-Degree-of-Freedom Nonlinear Experimental Moored System Using an Independent-Flow-Field Model

Stochastic characteristics of the surge response of a nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom moored structure subjected to random wave excitations are examined in this paper. Sources of nonlinearity of the system include a complex geometric configuration and wave-induced quadratic drag. A Morison-type model with an independent-flow-field formulation and a three-term-polynomial approximation of the nonlinear restoring force is employed for its proven excellent prediction capability for the experimental results investigated. Wave excitations considered in this study include nearly periodic waves, which take into account the presence of tank noise, noisy periodic waves that have predominant periodic components with designed additive random perturbations, and narrow-band random waves. A unified wave excitation model is used to describe all the wave conditions. A modulating factor governing the degree of randomness in the wave excitations is introduced. The corresponding Fokker–Planck formulation is applied and numerically solved for the response probability density functions (PDFs). Experimental results and simulations are compared in detail via the PDFs in phase space. The PDFs portray coexisting multiple response attractors and indicate their relative strengths, and experimental response behaviors, including transitions and interactions, are accordingly interpreted from the ensemble perspective. Using time-averaged probability density functions as an invariant measure, probability distributions of large excursions in experimental and simulated responses to various random wave excitations are demonstrated and compared. Asymptotic long-term behaviors of the experimental responses are then inferred.     

Project Delivery System Selection under Uncertainty: Multicriteria Multilevel Decision Aid Model

Selecting an optimal project delivery system is a critical task that owners should do to ensure project success. This selection is a complex decision-making process. The complexity arises from the uncertain or not well-defined parameters and/or the multiple criteria structure of such decisions. In this study, a decision aid model using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) coupled with rough approximation concepts is developed to assist the owners. The selection criteria are determined by studying a number of benchmarks. The model ranks the alternative delivery systems by considering both benchmark results and owner’s opinion. In interval AHP, an optimization procedure is performed via obtaining the upper and the lower linear programming models to determine the interval priorities for alternative project delivery systems. In cases having incomparable alternatives, which is the most likely case in uncertain decision making, the model uses rough set-based measures to reduce the number of decision criteria to a subset, which is able to fully rank the alternatives. To illustrate the applicability and usefulness of this methodology, a real world case study will be demonstrated.     

Roebling Suspension Bridge. I: Finite-Element Model and Free Vibration Response

This first part of a two-part paper on the John A. Roebling suspension bridge (1867) across the Ohio River is an analytical investigation, whereas Part II focuses on the experimental investigation of the bridge. The primary objectives of the investigation are to assess the bridge’s load-carrying capacity and compare this capacity with current standards of safety. Dynamics-based evaluation is used, which requires combining finite-element bridge analysis and field testing. A 3D finite-element model is developed to represent the bridge and to establish its deformed equilibrium configuration due to dead loading. Starting from the deformed configuration, a modal analysis is performed to provide the frequencies and mode shapes. Transverse vibration modes dominate the low-frequency response. It is demonstrated that cable stress stiffening plays an important role in both the static and dynamic responses of the bridge. Inclusion of large deflection behavior is shown to have a limited effect on the member forces and bridge deflections. Parametric studies are performed using the developed finite-element model. The outcome of the investigation is to provide structural information that will assist in the preservation of the historic John A. Roebling suspension bridge, though the developed methodology could be applied to a wide range of cable-supported bridges.