Spatio-temporal waves and targeted vaccination in recurrent epidemic network models

The success of an infectious disease to invade a population is strongly controlled by the population''s specific connectivity structure. Here, a network model is presented as an aid in understanding the role of social behaviour and heterogeneous connectivity in determining the spatio-temporal patterns of disease dynamics. We explore the controversial origins of long-term recurrent oscillations believed to be characteristic of diseases that have a period of temporary immunity after infection. In particular, we focus on sexually transmitted diseases such as syphilis, where this controversy is currently under review. Although temporary immunity plays a key role, it is found that, in realistic small-world networks, the social and sexual behaviour of individuals also has a great influence in generating long-term cycles. The model generates circular waves of infection with unusual spatial dynamics that depend on focal areas that act as pacemakers in the population. Eradication of the disease can be efficiently achieved by eliminating the pacemakers with a targeted vaccination scheme. A simple difference equation model is derived, which captures the infection dynamics of the network model and gives insights into their origins and their eradication through vaccination. Illustrative videos may be found in the electronic supplementary material.     

Slowing and storing light processes without a trapping dark state in a double two-level system. Theoretical study

We present a detailed theoretical study of a method for slowing light based on the oscillations of Zeeman coherences in a double two-level system [Hashmi, F.A.; Bouchene, M.A. Phys. Rev. A 2008, 77, 051803(R)]. This method does not require the presence of any trapping state. We focus on the properties and the limitations of such a method and compare it to previous ones. We also investigate the possibility of obtaining fast light and to store the light with such a method.     

Identification model of multi-layered neural network parameters and its applications in the petroleum production

This paper creates a LM (Levenberg-Marquardt) algorithm model which is appropriate to solve the problem about weights value of feedforward neural network. On the base of this model, we provide two applications in the oilfield production. Firstly, we simulated the functional relationships between the petrophysical and electrical properties of the rock by neural networks model, and studied oil saturation. Under the precision of data is confirmed, this method can reduce the number of experiments. Secondly, we simulated the relationships between investment and income by the neural networks model, and studied invest saturation point and income growth rate. It is very significant to guide the investment decision. The research result shows that the model is suitable for the modeling and identification of nonlinear systems due to the great fit characteristic of neural network and very fast convergence speed of LM algorithm.     

An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 2. Residuals analysis and a case study

In Part 1 of this paper a methodology for back‐to‐back testing of simulation software was described. Residuals with error‐dependent geometric properties were generated. A set of potential coding errors was enumerated, along with a corresponding set of feature matrices, which describe the geometric properties imposed on the residuals by each of the errors. In this part of the paper, an algorithm is developed to isolate the coding errors present by analysing the residuals. A set of errors is isolated when the subspace spanned by their combined feature matrices corresponds to that of the residuals. Individual feature matrices are compared to the residuals and classified as ‘definite’, ‘possible’ or ‘impossible’. The status of ‘possible’ errors is resolved using a dynamic subset testing algorithm. To demonstrate and validate the testing methodology presented in Part 1 and the isolation algorithm presented in Part 2, a case study is presented using a model for biological wastewater treatment. Both single and simultaneous errors that are deliberately introduced into the simulation code are correctly detected and isolated. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

水平圆筒型混合机中颗粒混合的离散模拟

采用离散模型模拟了水平圆筒型混合机中 10 0 0个颗粒混合的全过程 ,分析了颗粒流型的变化规律和混合曲线 ,得到了颗粒由相对静止到开始下滑的塌落过程 ,所得结果与已知实验结果符合很好 ,这有助于揭示混合机内部颗粒的运动规律     

Theory and data for simulating fine-scale human movement in an urban environment

Individual-based models of infectious disease transmission depend on accurate quantification of fine-scale patterns of human movement. Existing models of movement either pertain to overly coarse scales, simulate some aspects of movement but not others, or were designed specifically for populations in developed countries. Here, we propose a generalizable framework for simulating the locations that an individual visits, time allocation across those locations, and population-level variation therein. As a case study, we fit alternative models for each of five aspects of movement (number, distance from home and types of locations visited; frequency and duration of visits) to interview data from 157 residents of the city of Iquitos, Peru. Comparison of alternative models showed that location type and distance from home were significant determinants of the locations that individuals visited and how much time they spent there. We also found that for most locations, residents of two neighbourhoods displayed indistinguishable preferences for visiting locations at various distances, despite differing distributions of locations around those neighbourhoods. Finally, simulated patterns of time allocation matched the interview data in a number of ways, suggesting that our framework constitutes a sound basis for simulating fine-scale movement and for investigating factors that influence it.     

Transmission and control of an emerging influenza pandemic in a small-world airline network

The avian influenza virus H5N1 and the 2009 swine flu H1N1 are potentially serious pandemic threats to human health, and air travel readily facilitates the spread of infectious diseases. However, past studies have not yet incorporated the effects of air travel on the transmission of influenza in the construction of mathematical epidemic models. Therefore, this paper focused on the human-to-human transmission of influenza, and investigated the effects of air travel activities on an influenza pandemic in a small-world network. These activities of air travel include passengers’ consolidation, conveyance and distribution in airports and flights. Dynamic transmission models were developed to assess the expected burdens of the pandemic, with and without control measures. This study also investigated how the small-world properties of an air transportation network facilitate the spread of influenza around the globe. The results show that, as soon as the influenza is spread to the top 50 global airports, the transmission is greatly accelerated. Under the constraint of limited resources, a strategy that first applies control measures to the top 50 airports after day 13 and then soon afterwards to all other airports may result in remarkable containment effectiveness. As the infectiousness of the disease increases, it will expand the scale of the pandemic, and move the start time of the pandemic ahead.     

The Interaction between a Piezoelectric Screw Dislocation Dipole and an Elliptic Blunt Crack in Elliptical Inhomogeneity

The interaction problem of a piezoelectric screw dislocation dipole with a confocal elliptic blunt crack in elliptical inhomogeneity subjected to remote anti-plane stress field and in-plane electric field is investigated by using the complex method of elasticity. The exact closed-form solutions of a series of quantities, such as singularity stress field, image force and image torque acting on the center of screw dislocation dipole, stress intensity factor and electric displacement intensity factor of crack tip, energy release rate, and generalized strain energy density are obtained. Then the influence laws of remote load, the dip angle of dislocation dipole, the size of blunt crack, and the material constants on the quantities are analyzed. The numerical results show that the image force, image torque, stress intensity factor, and electric displacement intensity factor make periodic variation as the dip angle of dislocation dipole; the energy release rate of crack tip is negative when subjected to pure electric field, however, it can be positive or negative when subjected to the combined action of mechanical field and electric field; the sharp crack is not easy to expand in some combined action of mechanical field and electric field.     

Social network enterprise behaviors and patterns in SMEs: Lessons from a Portuguese local community centered around the tourism industry

This study analyzes uses of social networks by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) at the Algarve region in Portugal. Results suggest that some firms have integrated their business strategies with social networks, and have groups of professionals responsible for these platforms. Most managers perceive that social networks enhance business performance, but few measure the results. Firms that most frequently use social networks have managers with higher qualifications. This study identified two types of social-network use: a) product–client interaction and knowledge/(re)search, and b) marketing potential. A complementary analysis (cluster analysis) identified three behavioral patterns with varying involvement with social networks. These patterns relate with types of use, suggesting a level of social media involvement/performance. Enhancing performance is likely related to knowledge-oriented social networks. This study also suggests an approach for measuring the gap between types of social network use-behavioral/performance patterns and the reality in successful firms, which would be useful to apply or transfer to other firms and communities.     

基于深度欺骗策略的网络积极防御系统的设计与实现

为解决网络欺骗的安全性、欺骗性和交互性问题,提出了一个基于深度欺骗策略的五重欺骗与控制架构,在此基础上,建立了可实际应用的网络积极防御系统.该系统将防护、欺骗、监视、控制与审计整合为一体,在安全的条件下,通过网络服务欺骗、安全漏洞伪造、操作行为控制、文件系统欺骗和信息欺骗,实现了对整个网络入侵过程的欺骗与控制.其完整的欺骗与控制框架不仅仅针对某一攻击过程,还确保了系统不会轻易被识别,使欺骗程度和安全性大大提高.     

液压流体吸振器用圆形压电发电装置的建模与性能分析

提出一种用于液压流体吸振器的压电发电装置。为提高所用圆形压电振子的发电能力,获得最优的结构及材料性能参数,利用板壳理论建立了固支边界条件下的位移曲线及发电量的理论分析模型,研究了半径比(陶瓷/基板)、厚度比(陶瓷/总厚度)及弹性模量比(基板/陶瓷)等对其发电能力的影响规律。研究表明,在压电振子材料确定时,存在最佳的半径比和厚度比使其发电能力最大;在压电振子结构尺寸确定时,存在最佳的弹性模量比使发电量最大,且厚度比确定时的最佳弹性模量比与半径比无关、半径比确定时的最佳弹性模量比随厚度比的减小而降低;减小弹性模量比有助于提高压电振子的发电能力。铝基板及铍青铜基板压电振子的最佳半径比/厚度比分别为0.45/0.45和0.585/0.60,最大发电量分别为1.146 43×10-4J和1.018 93×10-4 J。     

Designing a Bayesian network for preventive maintenance from expert opinions in a rapid and reliable way

In this study, a Bayesian Network (BN) is considered to represent a nuclear plant mechanical system degradation. It describes a causal representation of the phenomena involved in the degradation process. Inference from such a BN needs to specify a great number of marginal and conditional probabilities. As, in the present context, information is based essentially on expert knowledge, this task becomes very complex and rapidly impossible. We present a solution, which consists of considering the BN as a log-linear model on which simplification constraints are assumed. This approach results in a considerable decrease in the number of probabilities to be given by experts. In addition, we give some simple rules to choose the most reliable probabilities. We show that making use of those rules allows to check the consistency of the derived probabilities. Moreover, we propose a feedback procedure to eliminate inconsistent probabilities. Finally, the derived probabilities that we propose to solve the equations involved in a realistic Bayesian network are expected to be reliable. The resulting methodology to design a significant and powerful BN is applied to a reactor coolant sub-component in EDF Nuclear plants in an illustrative purpose.     

Coupling of finite element and boundary integral methods for a capsule in a Stokes flow

We introduce a new numerical method to model the fluid–structure interaction between a microcapsule and an external flow. An explicit finite element method is used to model the large deformation of the capsule wall, which is treated as a bidimensional hyperelastic membrane. It is coupled with a boundary integral method to solve for the internal and external Stokes flows. Our results are compared with previous studies in two classical test cases: a capsule in a simple shear flow and in a planar hyperbolic flow. The method is found to be numerically stable, even when the membrane undergoes in‐plane compression, which had been shown to be a destabilizing factor for other methods. The results are in very good agreement with the literature. When the viscous forces are increased with respect to the membrane elastic forces, three regimes are found for both flow cases. Our method allows a precise characterization of the critical parameters governing the transitions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exogenous re-infection and the dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics: local effects in a network model of transmission

Infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis leads to tuberculosis (TB) disease by one of the three possible routes: primary progression after a recent infection; re-activation of a latent infection; or exogenous re-infection of a previously infected individual. Recent studies show that optimal TB control strategies may vary depending on the predominant route to disease in a specific population. It is therefore important for public health policy makers to understand the relative frequency of each type of TB within specific epidemiological scenarios. Although molecular epidemiologic tools have been used to estimate the relative contribution of recent transmission and re-activation to the burden of TB disease, it is not possible to use these techniques to distinguish between primary disease and re-infection on a population level. Current estimates of the contribution of re-infection therefore rely on mathematical models which identify the parameters most consistent with epidemiological data; these studies find that exogenous re-infection is important only when TB incidence is high. A basic assumption of these models is that people in a population are all equally likely to come into contact with an infectious case. However, theoretical studies demonstrate that the social and spatial structure can strongly influence the dynamics of infectious disease transmission. Here, we use a network model of TB transmission to evaluate the impact of non-homogeneous mixing on the relative contribution of re-infection over realistic epidemic trajectories. In contrast to the findings of previous models, our results suggest that re-infection may be important in communities where the average disease incidence is moderate or low as the force of infection can be unevenly distributed in the population. These results have important implications for the development of TB control strategies.     

The dynamic balance of import and export of zinc in Escherichia coli suggests a heterogeneous population response to stress

Zinc is essential for life, but toxic in excess. Thus all cells must control their internal zinc concentration. We used a systems approach, alternating rounds of experiments and models, to further elucidate the zinc control systems in Escherichia coli. We measured the response to zinc of the main specific zinc import and export systems in the wild-type, and a series of deletion mutant strains. We interpreted these data with a detailed mathematical model and Bayesian model fitting routines. There are three key findings: first, that alternate, non-inducible importers and exporters are important. Second, that an internal zinc reservoir is essential for maintaining the internal zinc concentration. Third, our data fitting led us to propose that the cells mount a heterogeneous response to zinc: some respond effectively, while others die or stop growing. In a further round of experiments, we demonstrated lower viable cell counts in the mutant strain tested exposed to excess zinc, consistent with this hypothesis. A stochastic model simulation demonstrated considerable fluctuations in the cellular levels of the ZntA exporter protein, reinforcing this proposal. We hypothesize that maintaining population heterogeneity could be a bet-hedging response allowing a population of cells to survive in varied and fluctuating environments.     

Effect of Constitutive Parameters on Cavity Formation and Growth in a Class of Incompressible Transversely Isotropic Nonlinearly Elastic Solid Spheres

Cavity formation and growth in a class of incompressible transversely isotropic nonlinearly elastic solid spheres are described as a bifurcation problem, for which the strain energy density is expressed as a nonlinear function of the invariants of the right Cauchy-Green deformation tensor. A bifurcation equation that describes cavity formation and growth is obtained. Some interesting qualitative properties of the bifurcation equation are presented. In particular, cavitated bifurcation is examined for a solid sphere composed of an incompressible anisotropic Gent-Thomas material model with a transversely isotropy about the radial direction. The effect of constitutive parameters on cavity formation and growth is then carried out. It is proved that a cavity forms in the interior of the sphere earlier or later than that in the isotropic Gent-Thomas sphere as the anisotropic parameter takes certain values. The condition for the bifurcation to the left or to the right of the cavity solution is proposed. The stability and the catastrophe of the equilibrium solutions are discussed by using the minimal potential energy principle. Whereas, in contrast to other isotropic nonlinear elastic spheres, cavitated bifurcation in the isotropic Gent-Thomas sphere is quite different, it is proved that the cavity solution can bifurcate locally to the left. The growth of a pre-existing micro-void in the sphere is examined, which interprets the physical implications of the preceding bifurcation problem.     

Information sharing and coordination mechanisms for managing uncertainty in supply chains: a simulation study

The study aims to investigate the effectiveness of information sharing and coordination mechanisms in reducing uncertainty. Supply chains are constantly subject to unpredictable events that can adversely influence its ability to achieve performance objectives. This paper primarily aims at managing uncertainties originating from unexpectedly large demand spikes. The supply chain literature is full of effective supply chain uncertainty management practices. This paper reviews the different practices for improving management of uncertainty and proposes several combinations of information sharing and coordination mechanism for reducing the uncertainty in supply chains. Next, the proposed combinations are tested on the make-to-stock supply chain of a paper tissue manufacturer using an agent-based simulation approach to show how the use of different levels of information sharing and coordination can be effective in managing uncertainty under daily operations facing a huge mismatch of actual and forecast demand. The findings of this research suggest that, a centralised information structure without widespread distribution of information and coordination is not effective in managing uncertainty of supply chain networks, even with increased frequency of information flow. Similarly, coordinating material flows without widespread information sharing does not improve supply chain uncertainty management. Central coordination of material flows with supply chain wide information sharing across different members is found to be essential in managing supply chains effectively under uncertainty.     

无锡某SOHO办公楼水源热泵VRV空调系统设计及分析

对某办公楼空调系统的设计做了多方案比选,最终确定为水源热泵VRV系统方案。对水源热泵VRV系统的设备做了设计选型,对水源热泵VRV的建设模式、节能运行做了讨论,为地产开发商、设计咨询公司、施工企业等提供参考。