黄河防洪决策支持系统多目标多层次对策方案的模糊优选

多目标多层次对策方案的评估与选择是《黄河防洪决策支持系统》研究的主要内容之一。本文研究了该系统方案选择中的决策分层、特征指标的确定、对策方案评估的模糊优选理论与模型、以及总结专家经验的模糊数学方法。     

多目标模糊决策方法在能源供应评估中的应用

本文介绍了多目标模糊决策方法的原理,并将其应用于辽宁省煤炭供应决 策问题的研究中．该方法对于提高能源决策水平具有重要的作用。     

水库正常蓄水位选取的多目标可变模糊优选方法

以阿尔塔什水库为例,合理选取水库特征水位将有利于解决水资源供需矛盾,在总结分析传统水库正常蓄水位优选方法的基础上,提出采用多目标可变模糊优选方法优选水库正常蓄水位,并与模糊物元模型做了比较分析。结果表明,该方法可均衡不同模型之间的差异,增加了优选结果的有效性、可靠性和实用性。     

水电项目投资的多目标模糊决策方法

对水电项目投资方案多目标决策问题进行了研究,根据多目标模糊优化的基本原理,结合目标相对优属度概念,给出了多目标模糊决策中通过回归确定权重的方法,同时提出了基于权重回归组合的水电项目投资多目标决策模糊化方法,通过实验证了该模型的合理性和有效性。     

多阶段多目标系统的模糊优化决策理论与模型

本文将文[1]提出的模糊优选理论,拓广应用于多阶段多目标决策系统。发展了文[2]提出的多阶段多目标系统的模糊优化(也称优选)决策理论、模型与解法。并给出实例。     

伪多目标模糊遗传算法在结构损伤识别中的应用

将模糊优选理论与多目标遗传算法相结合,提出了基于模糊优选理论的伪多目标遗传算法,解决了结构多损伤中传统遗传算法对载荷不敏感部位识别难、精度不高、运算效率低的不足,并将该方法应用于两端固支梁的损伤程度识别中.实例表明,该法对结构中单个单元损伤和多单元损伤程度识别准确、精度高、收敛速度快,对大型复杂结构的损伤程度识别具有广阔的应用前景.     

模糊优选模型的权灵敏度分析及其应用

基于多目标决策模糊优选模型，探讨了该模型中权变化对目标优属度的影响关系，得到了权扰动转移方程，进一步研究了一类特殊的扰动关系，即无响应权扰动关系，提出了该类权扰动量满足的模型，通过实例说明了无响应权扰动量的求解方法。     

堆石坝料物调运多目标动态优化模型研究

针对堆石坝料物调运规划对料物调运总运距和高峰期运输强度等目标的影响．建立了堆石坝料物调运多目标动态优化模型．提出了模型的解法．并将模型应用于实际工程中。在料物调运方面很好地优化了工程的经济和技术指标。实践证明模型是可行的、有效的。     

水库群防洪调度的大系统多目标决策模型研究

根据大系统多目标决策理论，提出了库区实时防洪调度的多目标决策模型．该模型克服了动态规划法的“维数灾”，并将专家经验和防洪系统的特点结合于实时防洪调度中．实例计算表明，该方法有效地减少洪灾风险，对协调各地区、各部门之间的矛盾，为决策者提供多个实时防洪调度的备选方案．     

基于多目标决策分析的水资源承载力研究

水资源承载力具有自然和社会双重属性,为描述水资源承载力与社会经济及生态环境之间的相互作用,构建了以水资源所能承载的国民生产总值最大、人口最多、污染物排放量最小为目标的水资源承载力多目标决策分析模型.同时,将快速非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)应用于水资源承载力多目标决策分析模型的求解,得到多目标最优Pareto前沿....     

An adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system for short-term natural gas demand estimation: Uncertain and complex environments

Accurate short-term natural gas (NG) demand estimation and forecasting is vital for policy and decision-making process in energy sector. Moreover, conventional methods may not provide accurate results. This paper presents an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for estimation of NG demand. Standard input variables are used which are day of the week, demand of the same day in previous year, demand of a day before and demand of 2 days before. The proposed ANFIS approach is equipped with pre-processing and post-processing concepts. Moreover, input data are pre-processed (scaled) and finally output data are post-processed (returned to its original scale). The superiority and applicability of the ANFIS approach is shown for Iranian NG consumption from 22/12/2007 to 30/6/2008. Results show that ANFIS provides more accurate results than artificial neural network (ANN) and conventional time series approach. The results of this study provide policy makers with an appropriate tool to make more accurate predictions on future short-term NG demand. This is because the proposed approach is capable of handling non-linearity, complexity as well as uncertainty that may exist in actual data sets due to erratic responses and measurement errors.     

农业水资源系统随机多维模糊优选模型及应用

基于多目标模糊优选动态规划理论,结合复杂农业水资源系统决策的复杂性、多目标性以及水文过程的随机性和具有时序性的特点,提出了随机多维模糊优选动态规划模型,并根据所研究问题的性质,给出两种随机多维问题的解法:随机多维决策相对优属度最大法和阶段模糊优选法。将该理论及方法应用于作物非充分灌溉制度的设计,实例证明了解法的可行性和模型的实用性。     

基于模糊决策的路灯节电等级控制系统的设计

此节能型路灯照明智能控制系统以单片机为核心,采用了电压、时间及光控制相结合的方法,利用模糊决策理论对节电等级进行控制,可有效改善路灯照明质量,节约电能及延长灯具的使用寿命,达到了很好的节电效果。     

基于生态调度的滦河流域多目标优化配置

针对滦河流域的水资源配置问题,建立了滦河流域多目标优化配置模型,运用粒子群算法求解该优化模型中非劣解集,并用支持向量机对非劣解进行评价。计算结果表明,随着水平年的增长,流域内各分区供水量增加,缺水量基本不变,缺水比例减小;95%频率下缺水量的增加较75%频率下要快。     

Design and optimization of small-scale methanol production from sour natural gas by integrating reforming with hydrogenation

This paper presents the design and simulation-based optimization of a small-scale sour natural gas to methanol process from the view of maximizing the operating profit during operation. It fully integrates steam reforming and CO/CO₂ hydrogenation technologies, by which CH₄ and CO₂ in feeding gas are efficiently converted into methanol without considering CO/H₂ shift and CO₂ removal. In order to obtain the true performances and potential advantages, a simultaneous multi-variable optimization strategy with multi-start procedure is performed by using built-in sequential quadratic programming algorithm. Besides, four cases studies that correspond to distinct levels of CO₂ content are compared to investigate the effects of gas quality on the techno-economic performances. The optimization results show the proposed process has both economic and environmental benefits as it helps to achieve the valorization and carbon footprint reduction of CO₂-rich natural gas resources. In particular, the feeding gas with 20 mol% CO₂ concentration is beneficial for improving the operating profit of the process.     

The effects of introducing natural gas in the Canary Islands for electricity generation

This study analyses the economic effects of introducing natural gas in the Canary Islands to generate electricity in combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants. To this end we will evaluate how this measure contributes to achieving the objectives of the islands’ energy policy and we calculate the cost of generating a kWh from this technology. For this calculation we obtain the net present value (NPV) of the total production costs during the economic lifetime of the plant so as to subsequently find the unitary cost per kWh generated. The result obtained indicates that the kWh cost is some 25% lower than the cost of using petroleum derivatives. Additionally, if we consider the positive effect of CO₂ emissions reductions, the cost is 41% lower. The introduction of natural gas will also be a decisive factor in complying with Kyoto requirements and in diversifying supply sources in the Canaries.     

Developing a novel fuzzy neutrosophic numbers based decision making analysis for prioritizing the energy storage technologies

The energy storage plays a fundamental role for sustainable energy systems and potential future economy. The aim of this study is to evaluate and prioritize the energy storage technology alternatives (methods) considering technical, cost, and environmental and social criteria. We propose a hybrid trapezoidal neutrosophic fuzzy numbers based Dombi weighted geometric averaging operator and MultiAtributive Ideal-Real Comparative Analysis (MAIRCA) model. A case study in Romania is carried out to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model. It is also compared with some existing methods to verify the superiority of the proposed model. Six technical storage methods are examined as follows: A₁: Hydro-pumping (HP), A₂: Hydrogen Underground Storage (HU), A₃: Hydrogen “on ground” multiple storage solution (HM), A₄: Hybrid 1 (HP + HU), A₅: Hybrid 2 (HP + HM), and A₆: Hybrid 3 (HU + HM). The results show that the alternative A₄: hydro-pumping and hydrogen underground storage method is the best among all alternatives.